mikeywith
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November 26, 2022, 12:30:22 AM |
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No but if a company was upgrading from: s17 to s19 or s19 to s19 xp
the holiday could slow replacement with the newer gear.
Ya that makes sense, but it's not like they would turn off the old gears and go to enjoy the holiday before plugging in the new ones, besides, current pace suggests 10% drop in hashrate which is massive, so maybe your theory is valid in terms of why this epoch is not having a positive pace, but as far as the current drop, it's more likely that someone had to turn off their gears without having a replacement, but who knows, let's wait and see.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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November 26, 2022, 03:10:49 PM |
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Well we are now down 97 blocks https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator... Latest Block: 764783 (10 minutes ago) Current Pace: 88.0963% (720 / 817.29 expected, 97.29 behind)Previous Difficulty: 36762198818467.21 Current Difficulty: 36950494067222.41 Next Difficulty: between 32649086906770 and 34299158216090 Next Difficulty Change: between -11.6410% and -7.1754% Previous Retarget: last Sunday at 5:50 PM (+0.5122%) Next Retarget (earliest): December 5, 2022 at 8:28 PM (in 9d 10h 25m 25s) Next Retarget (latest): December 6, 2022 at 3:14 PM (in 10d 5h 11m 10s) Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 2h 38m 17s and 15d 21h 24m 3s ... An interesting phenomenon about hashrate dropping a lot is that it will occasionally put downward preset on price. Remember when China kicked out a shit ton of miners hash rate dropped a ton but price also dropped and we had the rare reverse trend of price falling and following falling hash rate. I know its a bit of the chicken or the egg. My guess is we go under 15k and have 2 strong hash rate drops maybe 36.9 to 32.9t and then 32.9 to 28.0t so on Dec 21 hash rate of 28.0t and price of 14.9k my guess lets see how it ages. Meanwhile LTC/Doge doing well it has been the best mining algo for profits from Oct 2020 to Nov 2022 and where is ETH oh I know frozen in Pile Of Shit Way to go Mr V.B.
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mikeywith
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November 28, 2022, 12:57:43 AM |
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An interesting phenomenon about hashrate dropping a lot is that it will occasionally put downward preset on price.
Remember when China kicked out a shit ton of miners hash rate dropped a ton but price also dropped and we had the rare reverse trend of price falling and following falling hash rate.
I know its a bit of the chicken or the egg.
I thought the chicken and egg thing was solved a while ago no. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) My thought on this subject (the hashrate vs price not the egg vs chicken) is actually a bit different from yours, the China ban was something else, if the U.S today bans bitcoin mining then that would have a direct impact on the price for sure, but the natural hashrate drop that happens due to lower profitability is different, in fact, if anything, traders use it the exact opposite, there is a very common TA indicator called the hash-ribbons, which looks for miners capitulation as the usually marks the bottom of a bear market. That theory does make a lot of sense because miners are essentially just bitcoin traders, they don't go on an exchange and place daily bets, but they do bet on BTC the moment they put $ into gears, when they get liquidated (just like when the FOMO guys get liquidated on their long positions) it's usually the "blood in the streets" that the smart money is looking for, so far the difficulty numbers look good. Latest Block: 764965 (53 minutes ago) Current Pace: 88.4580% (902 / 1019.69 expected, 117.69 behind) Previous Difficulty: 36762198818467.21 Current Difficulty: 36950494067222.41 Next Difficulty: between 32763731696797 and 33937905606219 Next Difficulty Change: between -11.3307% and -8.1530% Previous Retarget: November 21, 2022 at 12:50 AM (+0.5122%) Next Retarget (earliest): December 6, 2022 at 7:17 AM (in 8d 4h 30m 20s) Next Retarget (latest): December 6, 2022 at 8:40 PM (in 8d 17h 53m 33s) Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 6h 27m 17s and 15d 19h 50m 29s If we get an 8-10% drop, followed by another similar drop that could actually trigger miners' capitulation and therefore a market bottom without the need to actually make lower lows on the price, which I think is likely, I think are about to have a good rally in the coming a few weeks, we will likely break 20k, maybe even 25k, I don't those numbers will be sustained, we will likely head back lower afterward.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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November 28, 2022, 03:12:26 AM |
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My biggest concern was the New York Ban on carbon based fuel for mining.
We are really well postioned we all the solar we built if "green" mining gets enforced here in New Jersey
Down 118 blocks only 45% in means a possible 10-14% diff drop.
Price is dropping a bit about 16k even.
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stompix
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November 28, 2022, 02:19:34 PM Last edit: November 28, 2022, 10:57:01 PM by stompix Merited by mikeywith (4), vapourminer (1) |
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60 blocks behind, I'll bet on a 7.5% drop, let's see if I lost my skills or my quartz ball will still miss this by more than 7.5% altogether.
I thought we have agreed on "no more optimistic protection" on your behalf, have we not? Well, my first prediction was bearish for the drop or bullish for the total hash rate, or whatever this is perceived so, me being completely wrong on this one would be good for miners. And as it turns out, from the 7.5% pace is 89.3824% so it just needs another 4% push to enter my usual 200% prediction territory. What I think is that the end of the year will be fun, I heard that many of the prepaid electricity contracts usually end when the year ends, it's without a doubt that power rates have increased all over the world, some there is a good chance that some of the mid-sized or even large players who still have access to cheap power rate and the power company has been making a ton of losses just to keep the contact, so, when the contact period is over, all the new contracts will be priced at higher prices.
I wouldn't bet that much on the electricity increase, Europe and North East Asia which is the most affected had basically zero mining, Russia now has a ton of extra, and the US and Canada are not really that affected after a spike caused by panic and high demand during summer things are looking at around 1 cent per kWh increase in most areas where heavy mining is happening compared to 2021. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_aIn my opinion, their main problem would be paying for anything as most of them were running on credit, not income, 1 cent will be irrelevant when you don't have the other 4 in the first place, so we might see more bankruptcies because of the credit line rather than the small increase in costs. If they ae pushed out of the game by this a quick jump to 20k would solve their problems. Let's leave this here, I'm curious if the hashrate goes indeed down by 10% what will change? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FskE6p3i.png&t=665&c=I0Bu_bN0AZ4j7Q) Hmm, nothing spectacular apart from unknown gaining 3%, nothing threatening Foundry yet. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJWY1sem.png&t=665&c=gOa41OEBbbe57Q)
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philipma1957 (OP)
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November 29, 2022, 03:42:07 PM |
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https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator... Latest Block: 765190 (9 minutes ago) Current Pace: 89.9482% (1127 / 1252.94 expected, 125.94 behind) Previous Difficulty: 36762198818467.21 Current Difficulty: 36950494067222.41 Next Difficulty: between 33300882606757 and 33953001864656 Next Difficulty Change: between -9.8770% and -8.1122% Previous Retarget: November 20, 2022 at 5:50 PM (+0.5122%) Next Retarget (earliest): December 6, 2022 at 12:04 AM (in 6d 13h 25m 22s) Next Retarget (latest): December 6, 2022 at 7:22 AM (in 6d 20h 43m 28s) Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 6h 14m 48s and 15d 13h 32m 54s ... 126 blocks about 10% price at low 16k and around 6-7 days to go. a 33.3 diff followed by another 10 % drops gets us under 30t diff. could happen
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hZti
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November 30, 2022, 05:11:43 PM |
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60 blocks behind, I'll bet on a 7.5% drop, let's see if I lost my skills or my quartz ball will still miss this by more than 7.5% altogether.
I thought we have agreed on "no more optimistic protection" on your behalf, have we not? Well, my first prediction was bearish for the drop or bullish for the total hash rate, or whatever this is perceived so, me being completely wrong on this one would be good for miners. And as it turns out, from the 7.5% pace is 89.3824% so it just needs another 4% push to enter my usual 200% prediction territory. What I think is that the end of the year will be fun, I heard that many of the prepaid electricity contracts usually end when the year ends, it's without a doubt that power rates have increased all over the world, some there is a good chance that some of the mid-sized or even large players who still have access to cheap power rate and the power company has been making a ton of losses just to keep the contact, so, when the contact period is over, all the new contracts will be priced at higher prices.
I wouldn't bet that much on the electricity increase, Europe and North East Asia which is the most affected had basically zero mining, Russia now has a ton of extra, and the US and Canada are not really that affected after a spike caused by panic and high demand during summer things are looking at around 1 cent per kWh increase in most areas where heavy mining is happening compared to 2021. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_aIn my opinion, their main problem would be paying for anything as most of them were running on credit, not income, 1 cent will be irrelevant when you don't have the other 4 in the first place, so we might see more bankruptcies because of the credit line rather than the small increase in costs. If they ae pushed out of the game by this a quick jump to 20k would solve their problems. Let's leave this here, I'm curious if the hashrate goes indeed down by 10% what will change? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FskE6p3i.png&t=665&c=I0Bu_bN0AZ4j7Q) Hmm, nothing spectacular apart from unknown gaining 3%, nothing threatening Foundry yet. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJWY1sem.png&t=665&c=gOa41OEBbbe57Q) Will be interesting to see if Russia will really gain a lot of hashrate in the next month. What you also have to consider is that Russia can not use many of the resources that they are now not able to sell. For example the gas has only pipelines that point to Europe. Now the pipelines point to nothing and can not be easily converted into electricity in Russia. So prices will basically go up everywhere and nobody will win on this.
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philipma1957 (OP)
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December 05, 2022, 11:29:06 PM |
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https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...Latest Block: 765645 (36 minutes ago) Current Pace: 91.6331% (1582 / 1726.45 expected, 144.45 behind)Previous Difficulty: 36762198818467.21 Current Difficulty: 36950494067222.41 Next Difficulty: between 33906606255762 and 34036549084433 Next Difficulty Change: between -8.2377% and -7.8861% Previous Retarget: November 20, 2022 at 5:50 PM (+0.5122%) Next Retarget (earliest): Monday at 11:05 PM (in 3d 5h 30m 58s) Next Retarget (latest): Tuesday at 12:30 AM (in 3d 6h 56m 16s) Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 5h 15m 28s and 15d 6h 40m 47s Copy stats to clipboard ... [/b] so last 36.8 to 36.7 to 36.9 to 33.? The oct 24 to Nov 6 looks like a difficulty tidal shift. with a 17k price diff may take a very long time to go to 40t miners may get to catch their collect breath. https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator... Latest Block: 765784 (6 minutes ago) Current Pace: 91.4243% (1721 / 1882.43 expected, 161.43 behind)Previous Difficulty: 36762198818467.21 Current Difficulty: 36950494067222.41 Next Difficulty: between 33825389701548 and 33886757036193 Next Difficulty Change: between -8.4575% and -8.2915% Previous Retarget: November 20, 2022 at 5:50 PM (+0.5122%) Next Retarget (earliest): Tuesday at 12:40 AM (in 2d 5h 6m 13s) Next Retarget (latest): Tuesday at 1:21 AM (in 2d 5h 46m 42s) Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 6h 50m 32s and 15d 7h 31m 2s Copy stats to clipboard ... dropped to 161 off pace pretty good. looks like 33.6-33.9t a nice diff drop price is around 16.9K [/quote] https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator... Latest Block: 766063 (5 minutes ago) Current Pace: 92.4306% (2000 / 2163.79 expected, 163.79 behind) Previous Difficulty: 36762198818467.21 Current Difficulty: 36950494067222.41 Next Difficulty: between 34191951448765 and 34192112233305 Next Difficulty Change: between -7.4655% and -7.4651% Previous Retarget: November 20, 2022 at 5:50 PM (+0.5122%) Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 9:20 PM (in 0d 2h 52m 59s) Next Retarget (latest): Today at 9:20 PM (in 0d 2h 53m 6s) Projected Epoch Length: between 15d 3h 30m 51s and 15d 3h 30m 57s Copy stats to clipboard ... 16 more blocks and we are in with say -7.3% so if we are at a diff of 34.2 and a price of 16.9k a s19 at 6 cent power is okay gear.
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kano
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December 06, 2022, 02:00:00 AM |
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[2022-12-06 01:47:46.071+00] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=766080 delta=-7.32% new=34244331613176.2 prev=36950494067222.4 So the target is now down a little to 34.2T
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philipma1957 (OP)
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December 06, 2022, 02:15:40 AM |
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[2022-12-06 01:47:46.071+00] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=766080 delta=-7.32% new=34244331613176.2 prev=36950494067222.4 So the target is now down a little to 34.2T
Well lets hope for slow steady side ways movements.
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mikeywith
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December 06, 2022, 12:06:09 PM |
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Well lets hope for slow steady side ways movements.
That's likely the case, judging by gear prices, especially the used ones, it seems like a lot of selling is going on, it seems like we are in the process (not sure if it's the start of the end) of miners capitulation, who would have thought the S19j pro would be going for 15$ in the U.S, it seems like many med sized miners are being forced to leave the game. I also read some interesting article about Riot, it seems like they had a bad month due to luck variance on the pool they used, despite adding 12% more hashrate, the only made 2% more BTC, and now they are going to switch to a PPS pool. When large players like Riot can't handle payout variance like that, it gives you a clear indication that the game is becoming harder for everyone.
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NotFuzzyWarm
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December 06, 2022, 01:17:23 PM |
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Why on Gods little green earth would an operation like Riot pushing 7.7 exahash even use a pool? ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) ?? They are more than big enough to go solo. Hell, if they have no capable coders themselves, just hire someone like Kano or even -ck to setup it up for them ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif)
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kano
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December 06, 2022, 01:21:33 PM |
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It would seem these big guys pay their electricty bill once per hour, and aren't even making 12% profit vs their costs, so they can't handle 12% variance in a month. Amazing how badly managed these mining businesses are ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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stompix
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December 06, 2022, 02:04:00 PM |
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Something really really bad is going to happen, the signs are all there: I'll bet on a 7.5% drop, let's see if I lost my skills or my quartz ball will still miss this by more than 7.5% altogether.
Previous Retarget: Today at 3:47 AM (-7.3238%)
So, run for the hills, I finally nailed it! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) I also read some interesting article about Riot, it seems like they had a bad month due to luck variance on the pool they used, despite adding 12% more hashrate, the only made 2% more BTC, and now they are going to switch to a PPS pool. Hmm, Riot claims 7.7 exa, which would be enough for 3% of the hashrate, Brains for 3 months has an average of 4.6%, 4.4% for the last month, and ow that Riot has left they have 7.2% in the last 24 hours, this looks like they've kicked the Binbogami out of their house. But, this is interesting, Riot wasn't using Foundry, is there a list with the largest ones that are using them? Why on Gods little green earth would an operation like Riot pushing 7.7 exahash even use a pool? ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) ?? Well, why is none of the top US miners running their own pool, other than DCG, Seems weird, if SBI is doing so for 1Exa why is none trying the same? Is this another US thing that has to do with accounting and tax tricks?
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..Stake.com.. | | | ▄████████████████████████████████████▄ ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██ ▄████▄ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ██████ ██ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ▀██▀ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ █████ ███ ██████ ██ ████▄ ██ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ████ ████ ██████████ ████ ████ ████▀ ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███ ██ ██ ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████████████████████████████████████ | | | | | | ▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄ █ ▄▀▄ █▀▀█▀▄▄ █ █▀█ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▄██▄ █ ▌ █ █ ▄██████▄ █ ▌ ▐▌ █ ██████████ █ ▐ █ █ ▐██████████▌ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▀▀██████▀▀ █ ▌ █ █ ▄▄▄██▄▄▄ █ ▌▐▌ █ █▐ █ █ █▐▐▌ █ █▐█ ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█ | | | | | | ▄▄█████████▄▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄█▀ ▐█▌ ▀█▄ ██ ▐█▌ ██ ████▄ ▄█████▄ ▄████ ████████▄███████████▄████████ ███▀ █████████████ ▀███ ██ ███████████ ██ ▀█▄ █████████ ▄█▀ ▀█▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄▄▄█▀ ▀███████ ███████▀ ▀█████▄ ▄█████▀ ▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀ | | | ..PLAY NOW.. |
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mikeywith
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December 06, 2022, 04:53:40 PM |
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Why on Gods little green earth would an operation like Riot pushing 7.7 exahash even use a pool? ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) ?? They own 7.7EH + whatever else on slush and they can not handle the variance, running thier own pool will only make it worse, all these large players will end up being in a very large pool to reduce variance effects. @stompix, you got it right this time, let's stop here ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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philipma1957 (OP)
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December 07, 2022, 12:23:38 AM |
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yeah things are getting tighter. early but time will tell if we drop to 29.9t
viabtc pays 6.43 cents
so 100 th = $6.43 burns 75kwatts or $4.50 at six cents that is 1.43 profit for a fully paid off mine with no help costs. but lets be realistic big mines have costs even if fully paid off
insurance building maintenance help property tax if you own the property rent if you rent the property.
so at six cents I am guessing all big mines are at death's door.
We are small but the space is multi use and ware house space makes good money now due to supply chain issues.
Think if you have a Walmart sized building. The overhead must be nuts.
Now lets say you are all containers. it cost a lot to make a container. so Loans are involved.
I see hashrate dropping under 30t maybe on dec 18th
surely by Jan 2 29t looks to be all good.
all this depends on a stable 17k price.
if we go over 20k rate picks up. if we tank to 13k rate drops.
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NotFuzzyWarm
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December 07, 2022, 04:26:44 PM Last edit: December 07, 2022, 06:10:24 PM by NotFuzzyWarm Merited by mikeywith (4), stompix (2) |
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More on the loans used to buy crypto gear this year and the aftermath of those decisions https://www.pcgamer.com/crypto-lenders-are-suffering-as-bitcoin-miners-are-unable-to-pay-back-gigantic-loans/Per the article: At its height, the crypto lending industry Bloomberg estimates that "as much as $4 billion" worth of mining equipment has been financed. As profits soared as the price of Bitcoin went up, and more loans were issued, and as Matthew Kimmell, an analyst at CoinShares (opens in new tab), put it to Bloomberg, “There hasn’t necessarily been the best due diligence on whether a miner was credit-worthy or not." Gee, ya think?
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stompix
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December 07, 2022, 05:53:33 PM |
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This is fun watching it unfold: So one of the biggest players or losers here is NyDig, which got 1 billion from investors, made zero progress on its banking plan, lost millions, is scraping 30% of the employees, and the new CEO pours another $720m of not his money into mining. And Iris energy (never heard of them before) is calming investors: The Group has no debt other than the limited recourse equipment financing arrangements described below. $1 million, secured against 0.2 EH/s of miners. $32 million, secured against 1.6 EH/s of miners. $71 million, secured against 2.0 EH/s of miners. 35$ per th/s for the last batch, while bitmain is dropping the hydros for $21/th, which must be quite reassuring, really reassuring, that's why their stocks have dropped just, 91,29 yoy 1,41 USD -14,77 (-91,29 %) @stompix, you got it right this time, let's stop here ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Neverrrrrr! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) PS Pace is 103.6992%, hope it's just a dead cat bounce or riot is getting lucky!
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mikeywith
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December 07, 2022, 11:20:49 PM |
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Pace is 103.6992%, hope it's just a dead cat bounce or riot is getting lucky!
Riot makes sense, Slush luck for the past month or 250 blocks was 80%, on the probablitiy scale that's very unusual, folks on telegram are talking about a possible bug/attack on slush that caused them to lose nearly 50 blocks. Of course, a lot of digging needs to be done before reaching to any conclusion, but I don't think they will recover easily from that bad month soon. So if 20% of Slush's 14EH was not finding blocks for other reasons other than luck, most of it will now start to find blocks.
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