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It's still a pretty risky bet though, ngl. I'm kinda hoping someone will convince me that I'm wrong but I don't see Gane losing in any scenario. Please discuss
Gane might be having good BJJ skills but it is not that easy to wrap hands around Francis Ngannou and submit him, he is really strong and even Stipe Miocic was not able to finish him even though he was able to defeat him in the first fight. The best game plan would be to make his tired and then try to finish him or win by points. On the other side one shot is more than enough from Francis Ngannou to take anyone in the UFC to another orbit.
As you mentioned with all the drama surrounding Francis Ngannou he will be prepared because a loss here could destroy his career completely along with his negotiation power.