UFC 270: Ngannou vs Gane | Is Gane a good bet?

[GamblersArea]

So Ngannou vs Gane is coming up soon and I've been extremely excited for this match-up. The fighting odds right now on most betting sites are pretty even but I'm sure eventually Ngannoug will become a favorite due to his power and people generally like to bet on the champion. I'm planning on putting a pretty sizable bet on Gane though. The guy has unparalleled footwork. No one in the division comes even close to his movement and I believe Ngannou won't be able to connect with much. Especially after watching their sparring footage.

Here's the summary of my thinking:

• Gane has better BJJ and especially good leg logs in his arsenal. I can easily see Francis getting caught in a heel hook if they go to the ground.
• Overall better standup. He's an undefeated kickboxer with unmatched footwork in the heavyweight division, whereas Francis is mainly a boxer with rare kicks and 0 wrestling.
• Gane absolutely dismantled Derrick Lewis whereas Ngannou stood frozen against him and lost via decision.
• Francis currently has a lot of negotiation drama with the UFC and wants to leave. This is the last match on his contract and if he loses he'll be a free agent. The championship clause in his contract would tie him to the UFC for another year or 3 fights if he wins this match.

It's still a pretty risky bet though, ngl. I'm kinda hoping someone will convince me that I'm wrong but I don't see Gane losing in any scenario. Please discuss  

[Bttzed03]

~ The fighting odds right now on most betting sites are pretty even

Yeah and I think that's because bettors understand that their strengths cancel each other out. It's one punch KO power for Francis against Cyril's skills. I find this match up similar to the Lewis vs. Daukaus match which happened recently. Gane looks like a smarter fighter with how he handled Lewis' power but Ngannou has become more patient and I think he has a bigger gas tank.

Like what I said before, I don't analyze fights that could easily end up with one punch especially in the early rounds. It is much easier to predict if the match ends in the first two rounds or if it ends in KO/TKO.

Anyway, you're welcome to discuss UFC fights on this thread.

[Gosgosking]

Gane is good fighter who is very fast in body movement,  Ngannou is a fighter of full of strength.  The both fighters are tough fighter , this will make the game to be tough and fantastic to watch. I can't tell at this point who the winner will. I guess this fight will be fun to watch to see this two great fighter showing their strength.

[robelneo]

It's still a pretty risky bet though, ngl. I'm kinda hoping someone will convince me that I'm wrong but I don't see Gane losing in any scenario. Please discuss  

I'm on you Gane is my favorite to win in this matchup I have huge respect for Ngannou but Gane is a beast inside the ring, Gane is undefeated and he delivers when he is facing a tough opponent like what we've seen in his match against Lewis but we must not take anything away on Ngannou he still has a chance to win here if he is motivated enough to win because there's a lot of fo distraction for him going to this fight.

[Hydrogen]

I don't think Ngannou will allow Ciryl Gane to stay at distance and pick him apart. Ngannou will force Gane to fight. He won't let Gane land cleanly and retreat or cut an angle, to not take damage. With the pattern repeating until Gane wins the fight. I don't think Ngannou will allow it to turn into a kickboxing point match the way others have.

Heavyweights in MMA can be tough to bet. Everyone hits hard and can finish their opponent with one hit. It can come down to who lands the knockout punch 1st, rather than who is faster or more skillful from a technical perspective.

Ngannou has the reach advantage here and is the 1st opponent Gane has faced with a longer wingspan. Having the reach advantage, could mean Gane will have a harder time hitting and running the way he has against opponents at a reach disadvantage. If you want example of how important reach can be in MMA. Think about how Jose Aldo cleanly defeated everyone he fought at a reach disadvantage. The opponents Jose Aldo struggled with the most were ones with a height and reach advantage over him. The same precedent could apply to Ciryl Gane.

A big part of the outcome will depend upon how hungry they are and how badly they want it. The heart, training and preparation are difficult to measure without inside information from training partners and people in camp -- which sportsbooks sometimes have connections to.

Ngannou opened as a big betting favorite, with Gane the betting underdog. Considerable bets must have been placed on Gane to even out the lines. The betting numbers can either be sharp gamblers with inside information, or gambling addicts whose bets reflect whatever their random mood swings happen to be at the time. The betting line is often wrong and should never be considered to reflect the true probability of win versus loss statistics.

[TopTort777]

Take a look on Ngannou statistics. If the fight goes on a distance, Francis losses. If he ables to connect, he wins. But, if his opponent have a strong chin, Ngannou have nothing to do, he is loaded for one punch. I think Francis has a small tank and he will run out of stamina in 3+ round. He is just a striker.

Gane is from Muay Thai. He can throw some good kneed to the body and make Ngannou slow. That will his key. Dont forget that they trained together. So every one is familiar of weak and strong aspects of each other. I would not say that Gane is a huge underdog. I would say that both fighters are equal. The one with a bigger gas tank wins.

[electronicash]

Gane proved himself he could beat heavy hitters like Lewis which if Lewis beat Ngannou, you wouldn't see Ngannou having a chance against Gane. it's still a very risky fight because Ngannou can throw a scary one-punch knockout.

i wouldn't say there is a huge difference to the odds even if the bookmaker will determine Gane to be the favorite. i'd say Ngannou will be my favorite. skip betting on this one if you are not very sure who to pick.

[dezoel]

It's more of a Goliath vs David in terms of power, not size. You look at Ngannou and you see the ability to end the match with one shit that's well connected and almost every punch or hook he throws is capable of putting anyone to sleep. Then you look at Gane and he's more of a technical boxer with excellent grappling ability and surprisingly light on the feet which is hard to find in the heavyweights.

I remember how the Gane vs Lewis fight went and I'm sorry to the Ngannou fans (I'm one of them) but I don't see how Francis wins here unless Gane gets loose or makes a mistake and gets caught mid-air. I want Gane to win as well because he's kind of an underdog and I want to see guys who work hard excel rather than raw talent. Also the reason why I am slightly tilted towards Ronaldo when it comes to comparing him with Messi.

[SirLancelot]

Gane proved himself he could beat heavy hitters like Lewis which if Lewis beat Ngannou, you wouldn't see Ngannou having a chance against Gane. it's still a very risky fight because Ngannou can throw a scary one-punch knockout.

i wouldn't say there is a huge difference to the odds even if the bookmaker will determine Gane to be the favorite. i'd say Ngannou will be my favorite. skip betting on this one if you are not very sure who to pick.

I agree and usually that's the case in most heavyweight fights, they can end not just the fight but someone's career with just one brutal knock and both these dudes are massive and have that ability, Francis Ngannou is obviously the more powerful guy and I think his punch was compared with a car hitting at full speed in some UFC event. I am also going to avoid betting on this one and suggest the same.

This is one of the fights I love watching with one eye closed because I don't want to see someone die in the ring but at the same time they are entertaining and fun to watch. The best bet would be - Fight not to go the distance but I am not betting it because of the poor odds on that.

[Welsh]

I'll likely be going for Ngannou since I expect the bookies to have Gane with the shorter odds. Though, Gane probably is the better bet in terms of probability, I just think as long as Ngannou can put on the pressure, he'll be able to land big on Gane. If Gane can manage the distance, and stop Ngannou from getting a heavy punch in, then he probably wins this fight quite comfortably. Though, Ngannou vs Stipe proved that Ngannou isn't a one trick pony, and knows how to deal with fighters looking to keep their distance from him.

I remember how the Gane vs Lewis fight went and I'm sorry to the Ngannou fans (I'm one of them) but I don't see how Francis wins here unless Gane gets loose or makes a mistake and gets caught mid-air. I want Gane to win as well because he's kind of an underdog and I want to see guys who work hard excel rather than raw talent.

I'm not completely on Gane yet, and I think while this step up is probably needed for the division to be spiced up, I actually think Ngannou's best chance at beating Gane is now due to the timing. I would think that if Ngannou does beat Gane, and there's a rematch it probably would go to Gane who would be able to adjust better.

[Fundamentals Of]

This is a fight that is considered fair and square. Odds are more or less the same. I will go for Gane if I were to bet. I think any of the two fighters could end the fight anytime. If this goes the distance, I think Gane will prevail. He's got the skills for it. But I doubt it will. And because both have powers, they could cancel the opponent out with a single punch. Ngannou more than Gane but Gane is the fighter with the higher IQ. He better be careful though. Ngannou only needs a single punch to shut him down.

[yazher]

Gane is good fighter who is very fast in body movement,  Ngannou is a fighter of full of strength.  The both fighters are tough fighter , this will make the game to be tough and fantastic to watch. I can't tell at this point who the winner will. I guess this fight will be fun to watch to see this two great fighter showing their strength.

This is a battle of giants, they both possess strength and power, so anything can happen in the ring. since Ngannou is the champion here, I think he is the favorite to win this one because he already beat dozens of big and strong opponents which makes him the champion. His punch is so powerful that it can only take one punch to snatch and get the win from his opponent even though they're winning the scorecard.

[bittraffic]

Heavyweight fighters are always going to be explosive when set in the cage. These are two big dudes who still can lift themselves and move like a lightweight. The most memorable fight I've seen about Ngannou is with Alister, it was heck of an uppercut. But against with also a powerful Gane, you will not see the fight going to be dominated by one only. Maybe Ngannou or maybe Gane.

[TopTort777]

The problem of Ngannou is that he does not have any combat sports base. He has trained boxing for 1 year only, they he had a pause for years and started training MMA. So right now he has a mix of a bit everything plus strength. Gane has trained Muay Thai and competed for years before starting MMA. So I think he is well trained against such a "smash-destroy-Hulk" like Ngannou. So once again, this is going to be not a competition who is a better fighter, but has more stamina.

[Kasabus]

If we will base this on their stats like record and reach advantage, sure thing Ngannou will have the higher hand in this fight. But this match ain't going down to be that way, because as we see it, both fighters have different strengths and abilities so if we really match it according to their talents, Gane will have the advantage because of his speed and unmatched footwork movements which enables him to connect as much as possible. Ngannou on the other hand, is also a really tough fighter and a crowd favorite who's strength can be really seen on how his body was built.
These two fellas are really exciting to watch and see them clash next year, indeed as what the OP have said, it's very risky to bet knowing that these two fighters are both tough.

[Welsh]

Heavyweight fighters are always going to be explosive when set in the cage. These are two big dudes who still can lift themselves and move like a lightweight. The most memorable fight I've seen about Ngannou is with Alister, it was heck of an uppercut. But against with also a powerful Gane, you will not see the fight going to be dominated by one only. Maybe Ngannou or maybe Gane.

Well, not always the case with heavyweights. They might be explosive for a round, but due to the amount of weight they're actually carrying its not uncommon for them to become a boring fight. I don't think we'll have that problem with Gane he seems to be able to handle long rounds, and conserve his energy. However, Ngannou is definitely at risk of tiring himself out, especially if he becomes frustrated at Gane's movement which I think will be the decisive factor in this fight, whether Gane can keep the distance, and frustrate Ngannou making him waste energy or if Ngannou can close the distance, and put Gane on the canvas.

[Webetcoins]

The problem of Ngannou is that he does not have any combat sports base. He has trained boxing for 1 year only, they he had a pause for years and started training MMA. So right now he has a mix of a bit everything plus strength. Gane has trained Muay Thai and competed for years before starting MMA. So I think he is well trained against such a "smash-destroy-Hulk" like Ngannou. So once again, this is going to be not a competition who is a better fighter, but has more stamina.

Everything you said and there's a bit of an EGO problem with Ngannou, at least by the way I see it. Gane, on the other hand, is a rising star and he would be preparing more seriously and Ngannou has just 1 weapon and that's power while Gane has more stamina in case the fight goes to later rounds where power won't be that big of an issue.

Gane should win but this is a risky bet for anyone because they are close to call despite the difference in their styles. I would be betting on Gane when the fight approaches near. The fight is on 22nd January so still plenty of time to think about it and there will be official weigh-ins before the fight where we can see how they look and sometimes it gives an indication too.

[YOSHIE]

I often see UFC fights especially Gane, he is no stranger to heavyweight betting in the UFC from throughout Gane's career, what I have seen Gane so far is still the idol of many people, Gane's history is quite impressive for UFC lovers.

I also saw in FanDuel sportsbook, quite a lot of people placed bets for them, maybe this fight is one of the best moments in early 2022, this is a good opportunity to bet.

This is a good message.

It's still a pretty risky bet though, ngl. I'm kinda hoping someone will convince me that I'm wrong but I don't see Gane losing in any scenario. Please discuss.

I also think so, Ngannou vs Gane also had a good series of careers, but whose name is a definite bet that we have to choose the one that we believe to be locked, maybe I will lock one of them, (N or G), not sure yet.

[Welsh]

Everything you said and there's a bit of an EGO problem with Ngannou, at least by the way I see it. Gane, on the other hand, is a rising star and he would be preparing more seriously and Ngannou has just 1 weapon and that's power while Gane has more stamina in case the fight goes to later rounds where power won't be that big of an issue.

Ego isn't always a problem, I mean look at Conor in his prime years he probably had the biggest ego going around, and not only that was arrogant about it too. Obviously, its back fired later in his career, but that's likely because of him finding motivation elsewhere in the world rather than primarily relying on fighting. I think Ngannou proved himself against Stipe enough to consider him as more than a one trick pony, though Gane is by far the better technical striker. I still think Ngannou is going to surprise a few people, and take the win home.

I often see UFC fights especially Gane, he is no stranger to heavyweight betting in the UFC from throughout Gane's career, what I have seen Gane so far is still the idol of many people, Gane's history is quite impressive for UFC lovers.

Yeah, Gane has lost me a lot of money as I've doubted him many times before. Proven me wrong each time, usually pretty convincingly. Still, I'm going for Ngannou .

[fortunecrypto]

This is a risky and very hard fight for Ngannou, he is battling an undefeated Gane who has beaten fighter that beat Ngannou in terms of experience and skills Gane has a slight advantage, Ngannou badly needs this win so he can prove to UFC that he is the legitimate heavyweight champion, UFC told him that he can leave anytime when his contract expires, there's bad blood between him and Gane and of course UFC because he thinks that Gane's interim heavyweight title is a fake one.