Bitcoin first week price speculation

[Charles-Tim]

In few hours away, we are entering into another year. I just read this on a news that took me to a tweet about how bitcoin price has never suffer losses in the first week of the year right from 2018 to 2021. Also I remembered a friend that sent me a message that want to buy bitcoin at the beginning of the year. Probably people are now having a kind of mentality for the first week of the year to be bullish. Which probably means 2022 first week might be bullish.

First week of the year effect
$BTC returns first week of:
2021 +36%
2020 +13%
2019 +7%
2018 +18%


I later had to check this using 1 day time range Japanese candle stick on an exchange. I found this to be true. I did not calculate in percentage but noticed their has truly been uptrends in the first week of the year right from 2018.

 

Likely there might be another bull market due to this, I am thinking whales, retail investors, people that fomo and other set of people are ready at the start of new year. What do you people think about this early year investment? Hopefully the market might be bullish, right?

[palle11]

I won't be surprise if the next week turns bull for bitcoin because ordinarily bitcoin price since last month correction has been in struggle to rise which is sign that this new year may be highly volatile. Speculation have been made for a high volatility for 2022 and that may happen as institutions are coming in

[Ararbermas]

A good structure can really tell if there's a great progress in the future, so if bitcoin suddenly show a sign i wouldn't be surprise we will see a new and very clear bullish run on the first week of January.  Indeed it's already started and back again above 48k as of now. If this sign will continue for sure bitcoin will improve more next year wherein more than what we're expecting.

[buwaytress]

Happy day for me then as I got a slightly bumper-sized issue of invoices for 2021 in, and I get to pay out monies owed in 2022 1st or 2nd week. If it even appreciates 7% (the lowest of your figures) I actually get the equivalent of a fifth of a month's extra in income and savings. Say what?

P.S. What about years previous though? I was around in 2017, and even 2016 for the first week, but I can't seem to recall if they were good. Wasn't paying much attention to markets then.

[cafucafucafu]

TA patterns repeats... Until it doesn't.

I honestly think that BTC will likely be quite bearish to start the year because of the momentum going into the new year, and the halving cycles just not aligning with 2022.

But hey, no one knows what will truly happen - the markets are honestly just a random collection of signals.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

Let's see how it does at the start of the week, but if ever there will be bullishness, the price could really still not reach what we all have been expecting, a 6 digit rush.

Nonetheless, if history repeats again, maybe at least as high as $52-$55k might be the baseline for whales and specially retail investors to push this price to that levels. As for the reasons, yeah could be the combination of fomo, whale manipulations, people investing early in hoping to hold in at least in 2022 and see a good profit at the end of the year.

[Jating]

TA patterns repeats... Until it doesn't.

Oh well, what do you expect from a fairly young market as bitcoin? Everyone is looking for a pattern, until it doesn't work anymore.

I honestly think that BTC will likely be quite bearish to start the year because of the momentum going into the new year, and the halving cycles just not aligning with 2022.

Well it bitcoin is going to be bearish then the pattern will repeat itself right? 2017 massive spike and then followed by a bear market in 2018. So the 4 year cycle is still in its effect.

But hey, no one knows what will truly happen - the markets are honestly just a random collection of signals.

It might be random, but as volatile as this market, really hard to predict the price, it's just wild and educated guesses, arbitrary numbers that can be hit or miss.

[BITCOIN4X]

On TF 1H the price of bitcoin again experienced a correction today starting at 9 am. Perhaps this is a brief effect as we enter the new year where recovery can still be expected in the first week of January 2022. I know it's still possible if we look at past history, but bad things can still happen when people are more interested in selling than staying.

On TF 1 W I saw the price of bitcoin experienced a sideway where the price was between $45K to $52K. In my opinion there is a possibility that the price will turn into a bullish trend and there is also a possibility that it will turn into a bearish trend. We have the possibility of facing both trends in January, so I just want to try to relax now and enjoy the new year 2022.

[Vaskiy]

By the first week the people will be more positive about the market, and the same keeps market bullish. This time too we can expect something as the past years. However the first hour of the new year have marked a decline in the price of bitcoin. Almost $1000 decline have happened over the last hour making the price reach close around $46k. Altcoins seems to be in good strength against the market of bitcoin for now.

[palle11]

This Sunday may be a good start for recovery for bitcoin. It started a good drive up to currently at $47,656 and looking like it has more strength to cover more grounds for the bull move. Just yesterday after some slight drop it has made a ride on the daily chart candlestick and this continuing for the week may become a good start for the year.

[Furious 7]

The first week would be a good start to the bullrun? Actually bitcoin is still very vulnerable to a small correction again but I see the chart shows good results, but if it becomes resistance then the first week does not become a price for $50k we will still see the price below it and this pattern continues to repeat until the meeting point recovery.
I know the first week will not experience significant changes and this fluctuation is still a change for the future, yes I think during January.

[Mamun74]

The first week of the year bitched price won’t surprise coz price around between same but i believe that bitcoin price will be more increase than 2021.Bitcoin is little dupm. Decentralization will never be stable. Now bitcoin price is $47.5k+ I hope BTC price will be reached $65-70k+ this year.

[boyptc]

Yes, the same opinion I've seen from several people that were also discussing about the bullish pattern that is being formed. We're all hopeful that this year will kick in as it starts another bullish scene.

This only means that we're still in the accumulation time that many have missed. But people are still in doubt that there will be the bullishness that will come out but yeah, a FOMO will come once it's already seen.

[adaseb]

Bitcoin might of rallied +18% in the beginning of 2018 but look at how the rest of the year went. Maybe it was because 2017 was a profitable year and many sold in Q1 2018 to pay taxes. But if this is true look at Q1 2021, the year before was also profitable but the Q1 and rest of year was very positive.

This is pretty much proof that these types of patterns are never reliable. They can repeat or can do something completely different and have no effect at all.

I think most of cryptos fate lies how the stock market will do with the fed rates and tapering.

[Poker Player]

First week of the year effect
$BTC returns first week of:
2021 +36%
2020 +13%
2019 +7%
2018 +18%


I later had to check this using 1 day time range Japanese candle stick on an exchange. I found this to be true. I did not calculate in percentage but noticed their has truly been uptrends in the first week of the year right from 2018.
...
Likely there might be another bull market due to this, I am thinking whales, retail investors, people that fomo and other set of people are ready at the start of new year. What do you people think about this early year investment? Hopefully the market might be bullish, right?

In my case, I don't care because I don't trade in the short term. If I believed in what you say I would have firmly bought on December 31 to sell at the end of the week, also taking into account that I would not have to pay taxes on the sale for another 15-18 months.

But the regularity you quote is may be due to purely statistical variability and does not seem to be based on underlying events, as out fella says:

TA patterns repeats... Until it doesn't.

[Ebede]

The first week of the year bitched price won’t surprise coz price around between same but i believe that bitcoin price will be more increase than 2021.Bitcoin is little dupm. Decentralization will never be stable. Now bitcoin price is $47.5k+ I hope BTC price will be reached $65-70k+ this year.

people are saying the same thing that this year bitcoin market will be greater than last year bitcoin, but cryptocurrency is not like that because some years we expected to be better in bitcoin market may years fails, let us not think that bitcoin will grow more than last year, but i know every year bitcoin make a revolution

[ultrloa]

The first week of the year bitched price won’t surprise coz price around between same but i believe that bitcoin price will be more increase than 2021.Bitcoin is little dupm. Decentralization will never be stable. Now bitcoin price is $47.5k+ I hope BTC price will be reached $65-70k+ this year.

people are saying the same thing that this year bitcoin market will be greater than last year bitcoin, but cryptocurrency is not like that because some years we expected to be better in bitcoin market may years fails, let us not think that bitcoin will grow more than last year, but i know every year bitcoin make a revolution

Many hope for pump to come but actually this will not come at early of this year knowing that the fear of people still intact and many still got afraid on what will happen on it or if they can see the same scenario where bitcoin drop at $3k in figures. But for sure we cannot see that one this year so let's hope there's a hype which can help it pump it up.

[Tellek Garing]

In few hours away, we are entering into another year. I just read this on a news that took me to a tweet about how bitcoin price has never suffer losses in the first week of the year right from 2018 to 2021. Also I remembered a friend that sent me a message that want to buy bitcoin at the beginning of the year. Probably people are now having a kind of mentality for the first week of the year to be bullish. Which probably means 2022 first week might be bullish.

First week of the year effect
$BTC returns first week of:
2021 +36%
2020 +13%
2019 +7%
2018 +18%


I later had to check this using 1 day time range Japanese candle stick on an exchange. I found this to be true. I did not calculate in percentage but noticed their has truly been uptrends in the first week of the year right from 2018.

 

Likely there might be another bull market due to this, I am thinking whales, retail investors, people that fomo and other set of people are ready at the start of new year. What do you people think about this early year investment? Hopefully, the market might be bullish, right?

It is expected that the Bitcoin market should pick during the first week of the year but we must also consider other aspects that always contribute to the outcome of the price such as its present market price, if Bitcoin is already at a bullish price at the end of the previous year the market may not necessarily see the bullish market at the beginning because at that stage the market may be trying to recover from it previous bull run just like what we witnessed in 2021-2022 this year first week may not witness a significant price increase but will see Bitcoin through a stable price.

[aoluain]

On a few occasions last year we have seen the Bitcoin market move in the opposite
way to historical trends. The market is different since the halving of 2020 and especially
last year. The general thinking is that the market is over leveraged so I'm  not holding my
breath for a big increase this week, there is a good chance we continue sideways.

[STT]

I remain open to positive price action even with the negative sentiment apparent, mainly because we have outrun the initial sell off from the ATH.  It does seem we have alot of doubt in the price currently.  40k is my rough target down similar to September lows but for proper break down we must first test 50 day average imo.   Hitting that 'wall' with confirmation to speculators that price action upwards was limited, could then be enough to trigger greater pressure on price downwards.
    Im not sure this week literally counts as some of the main trading days are holidays in some countries.   The first clear week of January without any holidays might be more significant with higher volume.