2022 Elliott Wave

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2022 Elliott Wave

• https://12345abcdewxyz.wordpress.com

Speculatively forecasting the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle.

Analysis is conjecture with sporadic fortnightly to monthly updates.

Previous thread: 2021 Elliott Wave

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BTC/USD





PRIMARY degree waves...

Code:

PRIMARY Wave [1]: The first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1148 days)
PRIMARY Wave [2]: The first bear market wave 2013-2015 (413 days)
PRIMARY Wave [3]: The second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1064 days)
PRIMARY Wave [4]: The second bear market wave 2018-2019 (364 days)
PRIMARY Wave [5]: The third and final bull market wave 2019-?

Magnitude of bull market impulsive waves which progress the trend...

Code:

PRIMARY Wave [1] = 1178  points, 3666017%
PRIMARY Wave [3] = 19601 points, 11961%
PRIMARY Wave [5] = 65878 points, 2110% (thus far)

Fibonacci-based projection target zones for PRIMARY[5] wave, using BLX:BNC pricing...

Code:

$136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786%
$219,866 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.886%
$379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000%

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ETH/USD

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DJIA 30

[josegines]

ETH/USD

why is ETH an ABC? shouldn't it start with a 12345 impulse?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

why is ETH an ABC? shouldn't it start with a 12345 impulse?

Insufficient historical data. Appears to be just three waves since 2015 launch. Either wave-5 or wave-C uptrend is underway from the 2018 low.

[sedactoo+04]

Been waiting for this awesome thread, thank you Steve.
Do you keep the bull scenario more likely due to eth's strong hold?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Been waiting for this awesome thread, thank you Steve.
Do you keep the bull scenario more likely due to eth's strong hold?

Keeping the bull scenario simply because there appears to be insufficient waves to complete the waveset.

[josegines]

What if the November high was the beginning of the bear cycle? It is not impossible.

If we see a new maximum in the coming months, this cycle would have been significantly longer than the previous ones, also leaving much less time for the subsequent bearish cycle before the next halving of 2024.

That is, if we expect a PRIMARY [5] to culminate CYCLE I, the subsequent CYCLE II would have a very short duration relative to the impulse it corrects.

CYCLE I ---> 11 years
CYCLE II ---> <2 years

It's not what anyone wants to read, not even me. I'm not short, far from it. It is that the times would not fit.

[tertius993]

Or could it be that it simply doesn’t follow a wave cycle?

How did last year’s thread/prediction play out? “If” I’m reading it correctly it forecast $200k for December 2021.

I love reading these predictions (and would definitely be delighted if they came true) but really … ? … does anyone ever go back and say “This is what it forecast, X; this is what we saw, Y”?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

What if the November high was the beginning of the bear cycle? It is not impossible.

If we see a new maximum in the coming months, this cycle would have been significantly longer than the previous ones, also leaving much less time for the subsequent bearish cycle before the next halving of 2024.

That is, if we expect a PRIMARY [5] to culminate CYCLE I, the subsequent CYCLE II would have a very short duration relative to the impulse it corrects.

CYCLE I ---> 11 years
CYCLE II ---> <2 years

It's not what anyone wants to read, not even me. I'm not short, far from it. It is that the times would not fit.

If the price of BTC drops to the 21-SEP-2021 low of 40K, it would imply an ongoing wave-(4) pullback is still underway and heading back to the JUN-2021 low of 28K.

Market cycles don't necessarily have to equal a balance of time; e.g. see DJIA30 chart here:

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211224-m-djia30.png

—From the 1932 low to the 2007 high, the DJIA30 index had a 75 year SUPERCYCLE-(I) bull market, consisting of five CYCLE degree waves.
—From the 2007 high to 2009 low, a SUPERCYCLE-(II) bear market halved the bull market (i.e. a -55% decline, approx equal to other historical declines).
—A 75 year SUPERCYCLE bull market, corrected by a 2 year SUPERCYCLE bear market.

After BTC completes its first bull market CYCLE, a bear market CYCLE shall follow (i.e. up to a -90% decline, approx equal to other historical declines).
Afterwards, whether a new bull market CYCLE starts again, is anybody's guess..?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Or could it be that it simply doesn’t follow a wave cycle?

How did last year’s thread/prediction play out? “If” I’m reading it correctly it forecast $200k for December 2021.

I love reading these predictions (and would definitely be delighted if they came true) but really … ? … does anyone ever go back and say “This is what it forecast, X; this is what we saw, Y”?

No change to the outlook yet, still expecting a top at either one of the following initial zones...

Code:

Fibonacci-based projection target zones for PRIMARY[5] wave, using BLX:BNC pricing...

$136,152 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.786%
$219,866 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 0.886%
$379,693 : PRIMARY[5] = PRIMARY[3] * 1.000%

Waves can subdivide and extend in price and time, or truncate. Hence, unpredictable "delays and detours" may occur to the roadmap. As and when the waves unfold, price and time projections are revised. However, thus far the "destination" hasn't changed as of yet.

The Elliott Wave model is indicative of price & structure, not time.

[josegines]

What if the November high was the beginning of the bear cycle? It is not impossible.

If we see a new maximum in the coming months, this cycle would have been significantly longer than the previous ones, also leaving much less time for the subsequent bearish cycle before the next halving of 2024.

That is, if we expect a PRIMARY [5] to culminate CYCLE I, the subsequent CYCLE II would have a very short duration relative to the impulse it corrects.

CYCLE I ---> 11 years
CYCLE II ---> <2 years

It's not what anyone wants to read, not even me. I'm not short, far from it. It is that the times would not fit.

If the price of BTC drops to the 21-SEP-2021 low of 40K, it would imply an ongoing wave-(4) pullback is still underway and heading back to the JUN-2021 low of 28K.

Market cycles don't necessarily have to equal a balance of time; e.g. see DJIA30 chart here:

https://12345abcdewxyz.files.wordpress.com/2021/12/20211224-m-djia30.png

—From the 1932 low to the 2007 high, the DJIA30 index had a 75 year SUPERCYCLE-(I) bull market, consisting of five CYCLE degree waves.
—From the 2007 high to 2009 low, a SUPERCYCLE-(II) bear market halved the bull market (i.e. a -55% decline, approx equal to other historical declines).
—A 75 year SUPERCYCLE bull market, corrected by a 2 year SUPERCYCLE bear market.

After BTC completes its first bull market CYCLE, a bear market CYCLE shall follow (i.e. up to a -90% decline, approx equal to other historical declines).
Afterwards, whether a new bull market CYCLE starts again, is anybody's guess..?

Okay, I try to fit the different forecasts out there.
-If BTC makes a new high in 2022, it could equate to the end of CYCLE I
-If after the halving of 2024 we see a new ATH, it could occur in 2025-2026
-between the maximum assumption of 2022 and the halving of 2024 should be the minimum of CYCLE II, then it would have a duration of less than 2 years.

in your opinion:
-the duration of CYCLE II could perfectly fit Elliot's Wave Theory and be followed by a CYCLE III (which would be mind-blowing)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Okay, I try to fit the different forecasts out there.
-If BTC makes a new high in 2022, it could equate to the end of CYCLE I
-If after the halving of 2024 we see a new ATH, it could occur in 2025-2026
-between the maximum assumption of 2022 and the halving of 2024 should be the minimum of CYCLE II, then it would have a duration of less than 2 years.

in your opinion:
-the duration of CYCLE II could perfectly fit Elliot's Wave Theory and be followed by a CYCLE III (which would be mind-blowing)

Yes, that is correct.

A new CYCLE III bull market, if it does commence, may look like a perpetual market, as illustrated in the following post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5300627.msg58211127#msg58211127

[CookieFactory]

Okay, I try to fit the different forecasts out there.
-If BTC makes a new high in 2022, it could equate to the end of CYCLE I
-If after the halving of 2024 we see a new ATH, it could occur in 2025-2026
-between the maximum assumption of 2022 and the halving of 2024 should be the minimum of CYCLE II, then it would have a duration of less than 2 years.

in your opinion:
-the duration of CYCLE II could perfectly fit Elliot's Wave Theory and be followed by a CYCLE III (which would be mind-blowing)

Yes, that is correct.

A new CYCLE III bull market, if it does commence, may look like a perpetual market, as illustrated in the following post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5300627.msg58211127#msg58211127

Just to confirm, the "perpetual market" is essentially the "end of cycles" hypothesis that's currently making the rounds? Per EW theory cycles are inherent in the rhythms of man's life rather than something specific to bitcoin (or any other asset for that matter). It's only from being "man-made" and subject to man's whims that bitcoin inherits cycle behavior so how do we reconcile the end of cycles despite still existing within the realm of man's behavior?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Just to confirm, the "perpetual market" is essentially the "end of cycles" hypothesis that's currently making the rounds? Per EW theory cycles are inherent in the rhythms of man's life rather than something specific to bitcoin (or any other asset for that matter). It's only from being "man-made" and subject to man's whims that bitcoin inherits cycle behavior so how do we reconcile the end of cycles despite still existing within the realm of man's behavior?

"Perpetual" in the sense that Bitcoin has survived its first CYCLE degree bear market crash, and commences a new decade plus secular (i.e. long-term) CYCLE bull market, but continues to behave in a volatile fashion with -90% cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear markets.

[CookieFactory]

Just to confirm, the "perpetual market" is essentially the "end of cycles" hypothesis that's currently making the rounds? Per EW theory cycles are inherent in the rhythms of man's life rather than something specific to bitcoin (or any other asset for that matter). It's only from being "man-made" and subject to man's whims that bitcoin inherits cycle behavior so how do we reconcile the end of cycles despite still existing within the realm of man's behavior?

"Perpetual" in the sense that Bitcoin has survived its first CYCLE degree bear market crash, and commences a new decade plus secular (i.e. long-term) CYCLE bull market, but continues to behave in a volatile fashion with -90% cyclical (i.e. short-term) bear markets.

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification.

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[drays]

If this is the 4-th correcting wave of the primary [5], then its wave C should drop lower than the wave A did, right?
Why do you expect it to bounce off around the same level as A did?

Wouldn't it be more natural if it bounces off Fibonacci 0.382 (19640)? Or would such scenario break some structures?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

If this is the 4-th correcting wave of the primary [5], then its wave C should drop lower than the wave A did, right?
Why do you expect it to bounce off around the same level as A did?

Wouldn't it be more natural if it bounces off Fibonacci 0.382 (19640)? Or would such scenario break some structures?

Since wave-B exceeded the high of wave-A (i.e. an Irregular B-wave), albeit very trivially; here are the potential wave-4 pullback scenarios to consider, in order of elimination...

1. If wave-C fails to decline to the wave-A low, then either
    i. a bullish Running Flat; or,
    ii. a bullish Ascending Triangle.

2. If wave-C declines to the wave-A low, then a bullish Regular Flat.

3. If wave-C exceeds the wave-A low, then either
    i. a bullish Expanded Flat; or,
    ii. a bullish Expanding Triangle.

Flat: https://i.ibb.co/C0NFQPD/EW-Flat.png
Triangle: https://i.ibb.co/0y0ZZff/EW-Triangle.jpg

Scenario 2 is the median of all scenarios, and hence is depicted on the charts for now.