The Russian economy is on the verge of collapse. What to expect?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

I am as well--we've got plenty of Russian members here, so I'd be interested to hear what they have to say about this situation.  World politics has never been an interest of mine, but I do listen to talk radio from time to time, and lately that's all that's being mentioned.  I don't really understand the relationship Russia has with Ukraine (aside from the former now wanting to invade the latter, apparently), so I'm not sure what Russia is trying to accomplish.

And meanwhile, the US is starting to get involved, so it's not as if this is a news story that doesn't hit home just a little bit.

OP, you didn't provide any links for what you said.  Is Russia banning the use of crypto associated with the banking system or is this some sort of outright ban or something in between?  Sounds ridiculous any way you slice it, since there are so many people in Russia who are into crypto, and I seriously doubt they're going to blindly obey a mandate from the government (unless the government has a really good way to enforce it and the will to do so).

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[Gyfts]

I don't really understand the relationship Russia has with Ukraine (aside from the former now wanting to invade the latter, apparently), so I'm not sure what Russia is trying to accomplish.

They don't have a relationship currently, but it's merely geopolitics reaching a tipping point.

Starts with the USSR -- Ukraine dissolves from the USSR and gains its independence in the 90's, and Putin, ex-KGB agent, current Russian president, wants nothing more than to see a USSR-like nation arise again with the same power it once had at its peak. So Putin's hope was for Ukraine to be part of Russia again -- this is the end goal. Why, you might ask? Geographically, Ukraine is a strategic country and separates Russia from some European countries. So any military activity or aggression on behalf of these Eastern EU countries would be more difficult if Ukraine was not part of the eastern European alliance countries. Essentially, Ukraine would act as a large buffer zone from any attacks on the mainland. Putin also understands that the current Ukrainian President cooperates closely with the US, which he doesn't like -- it's like having a spy right next door to you.

Part of the reasons mentioned above are also why Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO. Once Ukraine joins NATO, there is no chance Ukraine will ever be part of Russia again. Russia's aggression is peaking because they recognize Ukraine is close to forming an agreement with NATO countries, and they understand that the US will not protect a non-NATO ally in the event of an invasion.

Russia must act now or never. Their economic situation does not look to be improving either, so I can't imagine the type of hit their economy would take in the event of a full scale invasion, would probably hit crypto significantly as well.

[Kakmakr]

#DrBeer, the thing is this.....  when the Western world threatened to stop money transfers through SWIFT, the Russian government knew that money transfers cannot be stopped.. because Crypto currencies offered them an alternative option to do this.

So for them it is a two edge sword.... because they need it to transfer money internationally and on the other side of the coin ..Crypto  provide a method for it's own citizens to transfer their wealth out of Russia.

Mr. Putin also know that a can of worms has already been opened, so to stop Crypto now..is almost impossible. (Most people already shifted their wealth or a portion of it to safe havens or cold storage) 

[DrBeer]

Indeed, the conditions you mention are a bad picture of the current economic impact, but it is undeniable that the political war between Russia and Ukraine which has continued until Russia has restrained the impact of US policies on them has not yet come to a good end.  The diplomatic route that was expected to be taken did not go well, Russia continued to lower their troops to the border under the pretext of training.  If Ukraine does not take cover behind NATO, perhaps they will not cause the impact of a war that worries the whole world because the impact could provoke a third world war.

I agree that after Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum, after the annexation of Crimea, after seizing part of the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia itself forced Ukraine to take an unambiguous path to join NATO. Without the help of such a partner as the NATO bloc, it will be difficult for Ukraine to resist Russia, this is no secret to anyone. But even now, when some countries have provided technical and financial military assistance, the level of security has increased, and the level of Russian aggression has stabilized. A year ago, the consequences of such an attack would have been, if not fatal, then very sad for Ukraine, but today we are well armed with lethal defensive weapons, and we know that even a superior enemy will suffer terrible losses. That is why the Kremlin terrorist is now sitting in a bunker and does not know what to do... It is impossible to attack, it is impossible to run, it is not clear what to do, there is less and less money, the sanctions will continue...

[Ozero]

Indeed, the conditions you mention are a bad picture of the current economic impact, but it is undeniable that the political war between Russia and Ukraine which has continued until Russia has restrained the impact of US policies on them has not yet come to a good end.  The diplomatic route that was expected to be taken did not go well, Russia continued to lower their troops to the border under the pretext of training.  If Ukraine does not take cover behind NATO, perhaps they will not cause the impact of a war that worries the whole world because the impact could provoke a third world war.

I agree that after Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum, after the annexation of Crimea, after seizing part of the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia itself forced Ukraine to take an unambiguous path to join NATO. Without the help of such a partner as the NATO bloc, it will be difficult for Ukraine to resist Russia, this is no secret to anyone. But even now, when some countries have provided technical and financial military assistance, the level of security has increased, and the level of Russian aggression has stabilized. A year ago, the consequences of such an attack would have been, if not fatal, then very sad for Ukraine, but today we are well armed with lethal defensive weapons, and we know that even a superior enemy will suffer terrible losses. That is why the Kremlin terrorist is now sitting in a bunker and does not know what to do... It is impossible to attack, it is impossible to run, it is not clear what to do, there is less and less money, the sanctions will continue...

The Russian economy is now truly on the verge of collapse, as a result of the Putin regime's reckless expansionist foreign policy. In order for the economy not to collapse completely,  need to admit our mistakes and return to our original position, start respecting the laws and traditions of the international community. It is unlikely that the ambitious Putin will agree to this. The Russian economy cannot resist the majority of the economies of the states that now support the international sanctions imposed on Russia for a long time. Previously, Putin got away with everything, but now Europe and the United States saw the danger for their states, so they began to resist Putin's aggression more amicably. Therefore, Putin has led his country into a big dead end, from which it is possible to get out only with heavy losses.

[Sithara007]

Maybe it is time to lock this thread? Crude oil prices have crossed the $90 per barrel level and very soon we will be witnessing the pre-2014 prices ($120 per barrel). Natural gas prices are at all time high and a few weeks ago they touched $2,000 per thousand cubic meters. Given these circumstances, Russian economy is not going to collapse even if Putin and his cronies try their best to destroy it. And don't get me wrong. Any escalation in the Ukraine situation would mean crude oil / natural gas prices at a level never seen before.

[titular]

Let's say Russia decides to go ahead and invade and the United States does end up slapping them with sanctions.

Couldn't Russia retaliate with cyber warfare?

There has been strong evidence the past couple of years that they have been honing their infrastructure attacks. We saw the attacks in Ukraine and the damage they caused. News outlets have brought up the concern of US infrastructure lacking any serious cyber attack protection.

I'm not saying the United States shouldn't place sanctions; I'm saying that they would be foolish to think Russia doesn't have a backup plan.

[DrBeer]

 Russia is big enough that their economy as a whole is too big to fail, it's the individual that gets a bit of a problem. Imagine China, how many people there live under the poverty line? They will say that they do not live under the poverty line at all but they are also the same people who changed the ending of fight club to show that cops managed to get Tyler Durden and put him in an asylum... they are moronic dictators so do not believe ANYTHING they say. If a Chinese government official told me that 2+2 was 4, I would question the result. China has so many people living under the poverty line, many homeless people, many starved to death people, and many people who are just poor, not starving or anything but a regular poor person, shitty house, shitty food, shitty clothes, but surviving you know? That is the majority of the citizens in a 1+ billion populated country. Do you doubt their economical power? They are insanely powerful economically as a nation because the individual doesn't matter when you are calculating something like this. The same goes for Russia but not as bad as China, people in Russia at least have "some" freedom, they are not that bad. So if you want to collapse Russia, you may make some individuals poorer, but you will not be making the whole nation collapse, in any shape or form, no matter what.

Freedom for the people of Russia!? Are you seriously ? )) Find out what will happen if you just go out with an empty poster and stand on the street. No, this is not a joke or a joke. I can show you a huge amount of video materials from Russia, where the police take you away, and often give real prison terms, for example, for reposting on Twitter, or for reading the Constitution of the Russian Federation aloud to people on the street ... No, I agree that it sounds like idiocy or fictional nonsense, but such is the reality in Russia! I hope you understand - that any anti-government speeches are not allowed at all, and getting a term, just for demanding the fulfillment of constitutional rights, is extremely simple ...

[Zlantann]

Russia should respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Ukraine have the right to choose their own allies. But America and European nations would always paint Russia as the devil. The world press is not helping matters.

When America and her allies destabilize Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq, they were celebrated. Libya which had the best economy in Africa during the reign of Gaddafi, is now a route and market of slave trade. Afghanistan is the devils den and Iraq now a beggarly nation. The same US and allies are enacting tight immigration policies to limit the chances of the people who they destroyed their country seek asylum.

Cryptocurrencies are the payment future of any economy. Russian ban on cryptocurrencies is only a temporal setback that will minimally impact on the crypto market negatively. Russian knows that one of the ways of bypassing sanctions is through the secured cryptocurrencies. This ban might be an economic strategy to divert the attention of their perceived enemies. They will surely lift the ban.

[DrBeer]

I'm really curious about how Russians feel about the impending invasion of Ukraine.

I am as well--we've got plenty of Russian members here, so I'd be interested to hear what they have to say about this situation.  World politics has never been an interest of mine, but I do listen to talk radio from time to time, and lately that's all that's being mentioned.  I don't really understand the relationship Russia has with Ukraine (aside from the former now wanting to invade the latter, apparently), so I'm not sure what Russia is trying to accomplish.

And meanwhile, the US is starting to get involved, so it's not as if this is a news story that doesn't hit home just a little bit.

OP, you didn't provide any links for what you said.  Is Russia banning the use of crypto associated with the banking system or is this some sort of outright ban or something in between?  Sounds ridiculous any way you slice it, since there are so many people in Russia who are into crypto, and I seriously doubt they're going to blindly obey a mandate from the government (unless the government has a really good way to enforce it and the will to do so).

The story is extremely simple. 3 centuries of occupation of the territory of Ukraine by Muscovy (Russia  is an invented name that has nothing to do with the Moscow Kingdom). A short period of independence in the 20th century - from 1917 to 1921, another occupation by the RSFSR. The collapse of the USSR. Ukraine gives all nuclear weapons to Russia, in exchange for the Budapest Memorandum, where Russia undertakes to guarantee and ensure the integrity of the country, and the immutability of borders, as well as independence. 2014 - this treaty is violated by Russia. Although long before that, in regions with a high concentration of Russian-speaking residents, propaganda begins. They are told that some kind of terrible people live in the west of Ukraine, who from birth dream only of it - just to kill someone who speaks Russian does not like Russia, because Russia is the whole world in nuclear ashes, and all the other gays want to take over Russia No, this is not nonsense and not banter, this is such a reality ... If you knew the Russian language, I would tell you recommended listening to their state propaganda channels. I'm sure that in half an hour your eyes would begin to twitch

[Ozero]

Maybe it is time to lock this thread? Crude oil prices have crossed the $90 per barrel level and very soon we will be witnessing the pre-2014 prices ($120 per barrel). Natural gas prices are at all time high and a few weeks ago they touched $2,000 per thousand cubic meters. Given these circumstances, Russian economy is not going to collapse even if Putin and his cronies try their best to destroy it. And don't get me wrong. Any escalation in the Ukraine situation would mean crude oil / natural gas prices at a level never seen before.

This topic will be relevant as long as the Putin regime (I'm not talking about the people living in the Russian Federation) threatens the civilized world, and above all Ukraine, with war. It's not about the prices of oil and gas, which Russia is rich in. If the Putin regime continues to behave like a bandit on the high road, recognizing only the right of the strong, then high energy prices will not help it. International sanctions can be very diverse and hit almost all sectors of the economy, until the Russian Federation simply breaks up into separate principalities. And since Putin has already been driven into a dark corner by the world community, further events will develop in an interesting and very dramatic way for Putin and his entourage. So to be continued...

[sana54210]

This topic will be relevant as long as the Putin regime (I'm not talking about the people living in the Russian Federation) threatens the civilized world, and above all Ukraine, with war. It's not about the prices of oil and gas, which Russia is rich in. If the Putin regime continues to behave like a bandit on the high road, recognizing only the right of the strong, then high energy prices will not help it. International sanctions can be very diverse and hit almost all sectors of the economy, until the Russian Federation simply breaks up into separate principalities. And since Putin has already been driven into a dark corner by the world community, further events will develop in an interesting and very dramatic way for Putin and his entourage. So to be continued...

That is how he keeps his power. If he let people be people then he would not be able to actually keep that power, eventually he would be gone. You think that just one person holds all the power? You think it is Putin that decides everything and he just doesn't care about anyone else? This is one human with body and flesh, you can't just keep the power alone. I could get up and say that I am the president of my nation today, who would believe me? Nobody.

It means that he holds the power because people around him, business', military, cops all believe that he holds the power, they kill and assassinate for him, so it is totally based on what other people think. If Ukraine joins Nato and be part of it, then Putin would look weak and that is something he can't have, if he looks weak then people who gave him that power could also take it away as well.

[DrBeer]

Russia should respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Ukraine have the right to choose their own allies. But America and European nations would always paint Russia as the devil. The world press is not helping matters.

When America and her allies destabilize Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq, they were celebrated. Libya which had the best economy in Africa during the reign of Gaddafi, is now a route and market of slave trade. Afghanistan is the devils den and Iraq now a beggarly nation. The same US and allies are enacting tight immigration policies to limit the chances of the people who they destroyed their country seek asylum.

Cryptocurrencies are the payment future of any economy. Russian ban on cryptocurrencies is only a temporal setback that will minimally impact on the crypto market negatively. Russian knows that one of the ways of bypassing sanctions is through the secured cryptocurrencies. This ban might be an economic strategy to divert the attention of their perceived enemies. They will surely lift the ban.

First of all, thank you for assessing the situation and supporting Ukraine!
Regarding the fact that the West painted Russia as a "devil".
To begin with, I will say that I do not consider Western countries to be exclusively sinless and sweet. But if you remember the history of the Muscovite kingdom, the Khazar Khaganate (in the 18th century they came up with a new name for themselves - Russia, which has no historical or logical connection with them), then all of it is the enslavement of peoples, blood, betrayal, violence, looting, Lying. World War II - the brown and red regime launched this terrible process that claimed tens of millions of lives. The USSR itself destroyed more than 100 million of its own population in its history. The USSR brought up and supported the most bastard and bloody regimes in the world. And how would you describe, after that, Russia?

And about cryptocurrency and Russia - the main fear in Russia, regarding cryptocurrency, these are 2 topics:
1. The channel for the withdrawal of funds against the background of the growing collapse of the economy.
2. Channel "for sponsoring the insidious West of anti-Russian internal resources"