ㅤ

[DaveF]

I *think* we are going to see sub $20000 and then a climb back up.

Sadly, people are stupid. I have been hearing so many people talk about the fact that they made a nice profit in 2021 in BTC but now had to liquidate more because they forgot to put some aside to pay their taxes. So now they are selling to cover the tax bill and are seeing it go lower as other people sell to do the same so instead of waiting for the possible bump up, they just sell. Which then keeps the price pressure going down so others who are on the fence about selling want to get out and so on.

The other thing I have seen is people who put in stop loss prices are now seeing them trigger.

-Dave

[1715031470]

1715031470

[Lucius]

We can throw in as many numbers as we want, but there is no solid basis on which to predict where the price will stop - and as things stand we are in free fall at a time of year when purchasing power is at its lowest, taxes are knocking on everyone's door, inflation is on the rise, and geniuses who have used the printing of money en masse for the past two years to save their positions have realized that they can no longer do it.

Bitcoin is part of the system (did we want an adaptation?), and all those stories about safe heaven and hedge against the nonsense of the modern world crumble like a tower of cards when your asset loses 50% in just 2 months or less. Not to be misunderstood, I’m still for Bitcoin - but this could have happened 2 months ago, or 2 months from today - the sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we’ll soar to new heights.

And where is the absolute bottom? It may be under $30k which has been shown several times last year, but it won't surprise me if it's close to $20k. Trust is a really tricky thing, and there seem to be very few people who believe in Bitcoin these days.

[ethereumhunter]

Maybe it will be below $30k as the bottom of bitcoin, but having the right number will not be easy because when people panic like today, they will throw their bitcoin right away before they lose more. But I am okay if the price is below $20k or even at $10k. It seems the price is getting pushed to go down now, and the price reaches $34k, lower than before. So it will make most people follow to dump their bitcoin at once and wait for another bottom price.

This January is a blood bath for crypto and I guess it will remain until next month so prepare your money to buy back at the dip or you will regret missing the right time to invest in crypto.

[coolcoinz]

Things to consider:
1. 4 year cycle theory is IMO less plausible than the lengthening cycle theory.
If you're not familiar with this one it basically compares how many days it took Bitcoin to reach the top from the bottom of the bear market and in every cycle this number is higher.
2. Big bear market lows like those 70-80% usually happened after an overheated top, like in 2017 when we had 20x gains from the previous ATH. This time there was no such thing and you could see that in the fear index reaching values below 20 after a 25% correction.
Usually big gains mean deep, prolonged corrections, but the last bull run was pretty weak, which suggests a weak correction. 
3. As market matures it's natural for the fomo rallies to become less common and less volatile and it's the same with corrections.
4. Most people overshoot with their predictions.You could see it in the last bear market when know traders and youtubers were expecting 1k and it all ended at 3k. It's the same every time and right now a lot of people expect 20k, which is why I believe we'll never get there.

IMO 29k will hold. The lowest I'd expect to see would be 20k, with a possible wick down to 19k with enough panic, but there's going to be such a wall of buys at that level that if we start going towards 20 it will get short squeezed to 25.

Long term I see 2 options. We hold 30k and go back up to 40 and if that breaks to a new ATH.
We'll lose 30 and go down towards 20 where the correction will end.

It will all play out in the next 3 months. I don't see a 2 year long bear market ahead, unless the stock market goes -50%.

[Leviathan.007]

Well, I cannot be completely sure about it but according to what I can see on the chart in my own idea the bottom of the bear market can be down to 29K price level and that's where I'm going to buy more bitcoins if we reach this price level however this bear market can continue even more and for months until we see a price trigger and bullish signal to exit the bearish market, this bearish market was really important for the price of bitcoin to save potential also saving power for reaching higher price levels hoping for a new all-time high but this situation may remain for months before changing to bullish.

[coolcoinz]

~

Will we never fall below 29k? This is too optimistic and presumptuous. Of course, we can dive much deeper than this mark. For a cryptocurrency, a 50-60% drop is generally a miserable amount. In cryptocurrencies, even stablecoins sometimes fell by 50%. Stablecoins!!! And you want bitcoin, a highly volatile asset, to keep its value above 29k all the time. He has a great potential to drop to at least 20k - 15k. It's such a volatile market that any derivatives exchange could break it if they start a cascade of liquidations.

In March 2020, Bitcoin couldlose 99% of its value in one day. And if Bitmex hadn’t forcibly turned off the exchange, you would have easily seen the price of $0. Read the post-mortem of these events, you will be surprised how fragile the bitcoin market has become due to the development of derivatives markets.

Therefore, saving 29k is very optimistic. By the way, in 2021 there was a failure on Binance Futures. Price just fell to the range of 10,000 - 13,000. Another indirect sign.

As for the theory of the cyclical nature of the bitcoin market. No one was able to oppose anything to the graphics that I posted at the top of this thread. Just continuous subjective rejection of obvious information. Now, if the annual candle of 2022 closes in green, then it will be possible to argue that this cyclic formation does not work and you should not rely on it at all. Until that happens and the market (for now) draws a red annual candle, this formation works whether you like it or not.

I don't think that 20k is impossible, just that IMO we have 50/50 chance of holding 30k, or going lower towards 20, but IMO 15 is improbable for many reasons like moving averages, bitcoin history of always holding the last ATH when it's been breached for the second time, round numbers like 20k being key targets for most people, crowd mentality and so on.

That 13k you're pointing at was a pandemic flash crash when USA announced total lockdown. It was something we call a black swan event, pretty much comparable to a big terrorist attack, beginning of an armed conflict and so on. I don't think we can simply bleed for a year until we finally reach 13k again.

Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.

you have point. But even though it's not backed by anything else probably those people who always can get benefits in it will not let bitcoin to go back from the starting point especially big holders because it's a big loss for them as well. Just imagine if bitcoin suddenly fell from $1 seems the end of journey.. But i believe the real principle still useful and will always the real key to make bitcoin shine no matter what, wherein there's no way it will not keep holding every support level as long as there are still some people believing that bitcoin still a worth it than any cryptocurrency in the market.

Please... Google how many times in the last 10 years people said that it's over and the next stop is $1, 0, or some other low number.
Global mining is worth billions of USD, we have more investments in the space than we've had at 10 or 15k per coin. We have more users, more hash power, more companies involved. If we couldn't reach $1 in 2014 when Mt. Gox collapsed, we will not see it now.  

In fact, a $100k bitcoin is much more probable than a $1k bitcoin.

I find it to be funny that this time last year people were celebrating 30k USD and today everybody is sad because we're only at 30k.
Curb your expectations! Buy now and don't look at the price until 2023 and you'll thank me for it.


It's always darkest right before the dawn.
For all of you, who are scared now, here's a thread from last year, when people were saying the same thing, that it's all over, it's bear market, we will keep falling for years, and 3 months later BTC was at a new high.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5331595.new#new

[Ultegra134]

~

Will we never fall below 29k? This is too optimistic and presumptuous. Of course, we can dive much deeper than this mark. For a cryptocurrency, a 50-60% drop is generally a miserable amount. In cryptocurrencies, even stablecoins sometimes fell by 50%. Stablecoins!!! And you want bitcoin, a highly volatile asset, to keep its value above 29k all the time. He has a great potential to drop to at least 20k - 15k. It's such a volatile market that any derivatives exchange could break it if they start a cascade of liquidations.

In March 2020, Bitcoin couldlose 99% of its value in one day. And if Bitmex hadn’t forcibly turned off the exchange, you would have easily seen the price of $0. Read the post-mortem of these events, you will be surprised how fragile the bitcoin market has become due to the development of derivatives markets.

Therefore, saving 29k is very optimistic. By the way, in 2021 there was a failure on Binance Futures. Price just fell to the range of 10,000 - 13,000. Another indirect sign.

As for the theory of the cyclical nature of the bitcoin market. No one was able to oppose anything to the graphics that I posted at the top of this thread. Just continuous subjective rejection of obvious information. Now, if the annual candle of 2022 closes in green, then it will be possible to argue that this cyclic formation does not work and you should not rely on it at all. Until that happens and the market (for now) draws a red annual candle, this formation works whether you like it or not.

I don't think that 20k is impossible, just that IMO we have 50/50 chance of holding 30k, or going lower towards 20, but IMO 15 is improbable for many reasons like moving averages, bitcoin history of always holding the last ATH when it's been breached for the second time, round numbers like 20k being key targets for most people, crowd mentality and so on.

That 13k you're pointing at was a pandemic flash crash when USA announced total lockdown. It was something we call a black swan event, pretty much comparable to a big terrorist attack, beginning of an armed conflict and so on. I don't think we can simply bleed for a year until we finally reach 13k again.

Since Bitcoin is not really backed by anything other than trust of the people, then I have always lived with the idea that the absolute bottom for Bitcoin is somewhere near 1$. In the current situation I do not find it likely at all that it would reach that, but I would also be very cautious about relying too much on historic data about Bitcoin performance. It can be a useful indicator for sure, but it gives us no hard rules about the current bottom.

you have point. But even though it's not backed by anything else probably those people who always can get benefits in it will not let bitcoin to go back from the starting point especially big holders because it's a big loss for them as well. Just imagine if bitcoin suddenly fell from $1 seems the end of journey.. But i believe the real principle still useful and will always the real key to make bitcoin shine no matter what, wherein there's no way it will not keep holding every support level as long as there are still some people believing that bitcoin still a worth it than any cryptocurrency in the market.

Please... Google how many times in the last 10 years people said that it's over and the next stop is $1, 0, or some other low number.
Global mining is worth billions of USD, we have more investments in the space than we've had at 10 or 15k per coin. We have more users, more hash power, more companies involved. If we couldn't reach $1 in 2014 when Mt. Gox collapsed, we will not see it now.  

In fact, a $100k bitcoin is much more probable than a $1k bitcoin.

I find it to be funny that this time last year people were celebrating 30k USD and today everybody is sad because we're only at 30k.
Curb your expectations! Buy now and don't look at the price until 2023 and you'll thank me for it.


It's always darkest right before the dawn.
For all of you, who are scared now, here's a thread from last year, when people were saying the same thing, that it's all over, it's bear market, we will keep falling for years, and 3 months later BTC was at a new high.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5331595.new#new

While I respect both opinions, I tend to believe that while $29.000 does sound plausible, I wouldn't be surprised if it crashed even further, below $20.000 or $25.000. Great explanation, though, rounded up your merit to 700  .

Anyway, I do remember that we had the same thing last year, shortly after the new all-time high. While our concerns are understandable, and it's not easy to maintain your cool, I'm positive that it will recover in the upcoming 2-3 months, which isn't a big deal to be honest.

[coolcoinz]

Thanks Ultegra134.

We were getting signs of sideways accumulation period at 40k, but the recent stock market drop pushed us over the edge. I don't think we can call it a crash yet, but it's bad for some co0mpanies like Netflix that lost over 20%. If you look at US stocks, they had their highs last year, just like Bitcoin.

The demand will continue to rise the lower we get. For instance, the rich keep buying. Just take a look at what this address is doing. It kept adding to its balance every time Bitcoin had a drop, since November. It bought at 50, 40 and now 30k.
https://btc.com/btc/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ
There was also a huge (1 billion) USDt transfer to binance today.

We can divide BTC price action into fueled by internal and external factors. Internal ones are usually problematic for the long run, like the Gox bankruptcy. External problems may look bad at first but are really a great entry points even for the short-term investor. A good example of such external problems was the US lockdown crash of 2020.

[Ultegra134]

Thanks Ultegra134.

We were getting signs of sideways accumulation period at 40k, but the recent stock market drop pushed us over the edge. I don't think we can call it a crash yet, but it's bad for some co0mpanies like Netflix that lost over 20%. If you look at US stocks, they had their highs last year, just like Bitcoin.

The demand will continue to rise the lower we get. For instance, the rich keep buying. Just take a look at what this address is doing. It kept adding to its balance every time Bitcoin had a drop, since November. It bought at 50, 40 and now 30k.
https://btc.com/btc/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ
There was also a huge (1 billion) USDt transfer to binance today.

We can divide BTC price action into fueled by internal and external factors. Internal ones are usually problematic for the long run, like the Gox bankruptcy. External problems may look bad at first but are really a great entry points even for the short-term investor. A good example of such external problems was the US lockdown crash of 2020.

You're welcome, my pleasure. The stock market is also bearish the past few weeks or maybe months, it was kind of expected that cryptocurrencies would be severely affected eventually.

I've never seen such a high balance in my lifetime, more than $4.5 billion dollars in value, while Bitcoin purchases aren't stopping, he definitely knows what he's doing, otherwise he wouldn't kept buying.

I'm not familiar with the whole investment thing, any BTC I ever owned was accumulated through a variety of ways, I've never actually bought from scratch, in terms of investment. I used to trade in the past, but have now stopped, unfortunately to be honest, I don't have the stomach to do it.

[pooya87]

I heard something similar from you when I predicted the start of a bear market in 2022. You claim that all this does not make sense and historical data mean nothing. I don't agree with you. So far, bitcoin clearly follows cyclicality, and as I have been saying since last year that this year will be bearish for the crypto market, I continue to say so.

To be clear I don't claim "historical data mean nothing". My arguments are about the size of the drop not the drop itself.

We could be in a bear market and may even not have any major rises this whole year, but I still argue that there is no reason for the drop to be the same size as previous big bear markets (ie. the 85% drop) simply because the rise wasn't of same magnitude.

As for the market, none of it makes any sense to me for the past month or two which is why I try not to speculate anything and watch what happens at least in the first months of 2022 and so far things have only gotten weirder if you ask me. But at the same time I can't agree with anyone using the cycles to predict the size of this drop when clearly the top wasn't even close to of the same size. After all the cycle isn't just the bear market part, it start with the bull market and the bubble causes the bear market of that magnitude.
If you compare the whole cycle you can clearly see that the one ending in 2021 is clearly incomplete:

[davis196]

I wonder about the opinions of the CEOs,shareholders and financial experts of all the institutional investors,that bought Bitcoin 1-2 years ago,about the current price drop.
Are there going to be new institutional investors buying BTC,when they know that Bitcoin is capable of such volatility?
For me,the absolute price bottom of Bitcoin is zero.Claiming that a random number between 1 dollar and 30K USD is the "absolute price bottom" is just pure guessing.
I know that the bloodbath on the crypto markets will stop.Actually the stock market faced a price drop as well,so there's no clear reason behind the current BTC price crash.It's just the financial markets are being insecure about multiple factors-the pandemic,the high inflation,the tensions between USA and Russia.
It can be everything.

[franky1]

ill throw my guess in.
'value window'(mining cost, not market price) bottom sits at:
one month low of $33229.81
three month low of $30237.55
six month low of $20333.11
twelve month low of $16751.05
these lows mentioned above are not based on "price" lows seen.. but based on absolute bottom mining cost which has nothing to do with the market price. but has to do with the cheapest anyone can mine on the planet on the day of the hashrate that day

its based simply by calculating the mining cost and tracking that with the hashrate(no market price variable included).
premium mining cost (hardware with ROI+ $0.37/kwh electric)
cheapest mining cost (hardware with ROI+ $0.04/kwh electric)

and separately THEN adding in the market price into the final chart as a comparison


note the mining cost b & p is pure [asic hardware ROI+electric cost] vs hashrate. using bitmain s19pr (110th at $12k with 2year ROI and $0.04elec or $0.37elec). it has no market price variable,

yet for all the years i have used this. the price(separate stat in grey) has happily sat between the cheap-premium mining cost window.

yes the mining hashrate can retreat back to 3month, 6 month or 1 year bottom. allowing for the price to retreat down too.

[tertius993]

I heard something similar from you when I predicted the start of a bear market in 2022. You claim that all this does not make sense and historical data mean nothing. I don't agree with you. So far, bitcoin clearly follows cyclicality, and as I have been saying since last year that this year will be bearish for the crypto market, I continue to say so.

To be clear I don't claim "historical data mean nothing". My arguments are about the size of the drop not the drop itself.

We could be in a bear market and may even not have any major rises this whole year, but I still argue that there is no reason for the drop to be the same size as previous big bear markets (ie. the 85% drop) simply because the rise wasn't of same magnitude.

As for the market, none of it makes any sense to me for the past month or two which is why I try not to speculate anything and watch what happens at least in the first months of 2022 and so far things have only gotten weirder if you ask me. But at the same time I can't agree with anyone using the cycles to predict the size of this drop when clearly the top wasn't even close to of the same size. After all the cycle isn't just the bear market part, it start with the bull market and the bubble causes the bear market of that magnitude.
If you compare the whole cycle you can clearly see that the one ending in 2021 is clearly incomplete:

The cycles are definitely different I don't think you can conclude that means this one is incomplete.  As I argued here we only have two data points so far which isn't really enough to form a reliable pattern.  Even if you try to draw a pattern you can clearly see that the second cycle was longer and (proportionately) lower than the first, so if you then extrapolate that trend it looks something like this (blue values are projected):





(More detail in the thread linked above)
 

[coolcoinz]

yes the mining hashrate can retreat back to 3month, 6 month or 1 year bottom. allowing for the price to retreat down too.

In an extreme bearish scenario where the stock market goes down another 20% or more it could force miners to sell at a loss and break this pattern, but your chart is one of the reasons why I think people who wait for 10 or 15k bitcoin will end up like those who waited for 1k bitcoin in 2019.

The cycles are definitely different I don't think you can conclude that means this one is incomplete.  As I argued here we only have two data points so far which isn't really enough to form a reliable pattern.  Even if you try to draw a pattern you can clearly see that the second cycle was longer and (proportionately) lower than the first, so if you then extrapolate that trend it looks something like this (blue values are projected):

This is what analysts call "lengthening cycles with diminishing returns". That's actually one of the bitcoin market theories.

[bittraffic]

$20K sounds fair if we are talking about not the worse situation. It could dip lower than that if we are really going to experience another long bear market, it's not going to surprise a lot of us whos been around for years with the ups and downs in BTC market. The market somehow becomes very predictable to the old traders that they know after 3-6months the price will be this low after the ATH.  But for us who plays in the 1-4hour chart, the market keeps swinging from the bottom and then ups.

$13K could also be the bottom but seem too deep already and it's a bargain for a new country to begin buying to adopt BTC.

[pooya87]

I prefer to calculate the rises and everything else (relative rise %) from the bottom of the cycle (ie. ATL in my charts) when the next cycle starts with the first rise. That means the 2013 rise was about 60x and 2017 one was 131x (not your 30x) and this time it was only 21x.

I still see an increase on each cycle (2013 to 2017) then it significantly shrinks this time.
Which is why I disagree with your fall % at the bottom also. If you look you are also predicting a final ATL that is way below the previous bubble peak in 2017, that is unprecedented. Each cycle when the dump happens we end up at a price that is much higher than previous bubble peak. $20 > $150 > $3200 are all ATLs higher than previous bubble peak.

[Ultegra134]

$20K sounds fair if we are talking about not the worse situation. It could dip lower than that if we are really going to experience another long bear market, it's not going to surprise a lot of us whos been around for years with the ups and downs in BTC market. The market somehow becomes very predictable to the old traders that they know after 3-6months the price will be this low after the ATH.  But for us who plays in the 1-4hour chart, the market keeps swinging from the bottom and then ups.

$13K could also be the bottom but seem too deep already and it's a bargain for a new country to begin buying to adopt BTC.

It's astonishing that approximately two years ago, Bitcoin was surpassing $20.000 and constantly reaching new all time high records. Look at us now, trying to predict where will the downtrend stop. On the one hand, $20-$25k does sound plausible, but on the other hand, there seems to be some kind of resistance at the $35.000 price level, which is stuck now for the past two days.

[bekti3]

-snip

That's awful. We've just begun the Bitcoin winter (according to past cycles) and we are already bleeding so much. Almost all of the top 100 coins are down 20% just today. From the looks of it, it's going to be rough. I don't even know if it's good to invest right now.

even now it will be more than that I think in a decline because indeed they have not shown signs of an increase there.
Talking about a good investment or not, actually it still tends to be good and even very good I think because investment is talking about the long term while the decline now is relatively short term and is not related to long term investment.
but if you want to fit then use your analysis and then invest according to the price you want there

[tertius993]

I prefer to calculate the rises and everything else (relative rise %) from the bottom of the cycle (ie. ATL in my charts) when the next cycle starts with the first rise. That means the 2013 rise was about 60x and 2017 one was 131x (not your 30x) and this time it was only 21x.

I still see an increase on each cycle (2013 to 2017) then it significantly shrinks this time.
Which is why I disagree with your fall % at the bottom also. If you look you are also predicting a final ATL that is way below the previous bubble peak in 2017, that is unprecedented. Each cycle when the dump happens we end up at a price that is much higher than previous bubble peak. $20 > $150 > $3200 are all ATLs higher than previous bubble peak.

The problem with using the ATL is a) it is a more variable state than the halving which is clearly defined and predictable; and b) you really only have one reference as the 2012 halving didn't have a meaningful ATL.  Do you prefer to use it because you like the results better or for some other reason?

Regarding the bottom being below the previous peak - true but as above I don't think one (or even two) examples allow us to declare something unprecedented. 

As I said in my explanatory thread, I'm not invested in this as a prediction at all, I wouldn't be bothered in the slightest if it were wrong, indeed I don't actually believe we can predict anything much using analysis like this and fully expect it to be wrong, I just found it an enjoyable intellectual exercise. 

Personally I would much prefer that your and the other high value predictions were right!  Unfortunately I don't think they will be ...

I did a separate bit of analysis looking at energy consumption as the price increases, and I think this will set an upper limit on the sustained Bitcoin price during each epoch.  Unless of course someone manages to get fusion working and energy becomes basically free.

[pooya87]

Do you prefer to use it because you like the results better or for some other reason?

Because it is more reliable than any other price. They always happen during one of the longest accumulation periods bitcoin has where price remains very stable with little change. It lasts for months too. For example $3k lasted about 5 months in 2019. $200 for about 6 months in 2015.

In comparison, price at halving is a price at one of the most volatile time of bitcoin where there has been a pump (people panic bought because of 50% drop in supply creation) and a dump as traders cash out their profit. I don't think such a price is very reliable on its own.