Retail users out?

[jashbir67]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

[pooya87]

Similar to going up that just because price has gone up to some extent it doesn't mean it has to continue going up until eternity, going down is the same. Price doesn't have to continue going down just because it has fallen for some time.
Your reasoning makes no sense.

[Jawhead999]

Retail users already out, this is why the price was fall... if they aren't out it won't hit $35K. They're scared of the market and can't relax, definitely they will sell in loss. After that, when the market recovered and the price back to $50K they will join again and buy with higher price.

The thing is there're so many articles create bad news about Bitcoin while the fact it's a old news or unrelated, but many people believe it.

[KaliLinux]

Retail users already out, this is why the price was fall... if they aren't out it won't hit $35K. They're scared of the market and can't relax, definitely they will sell in loss. After that, when the market recovered and the price back to $50K they will join again and buy with higher price.

The thing is there're so many articles create bad news about Bitcoin while the fact it's a old news or unrelated, but many people believe it.

I don't believe retailers caused the price drop from $42k down to where we are now around $35k+ but yeah, most retailers must have dumped too because of the fear of not knowing how far this can go but why do people keep doing that though and yet everyone wants the price to keep going up even if they are the first to dump in the slightest down move? I guess that is why they will always lose because they will end up buying back at a higher price.

[mk4]

Retail users already out, this is why the price was fall... if they aren't out it won't hit $35K.

How do you really know, though? Having several weeks of red doesn't automatically mean that they're totally out. Also taking into consideration that a good chunk of money in bitcoin is still retail; if they were really totally out, we'd be far lower from here. (not saying retail needs to be out for us to have a bounce btw)

[TheNineClub]

People exiting is not an alarming thing. Crypto has not yet established itself to have steady numbers in users and fluctuations will happen, especially as the preoposed bear market is coming round the corner. But I also expect those same groups of people to return when things have settled down a bit, and with them bring some new blood.

[livingfree]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario.

Not a good scenario? I don't think so but yeah sort of bad because we don't want to see it going low further. But, we also know that there's no going up forever so it's acceptable.

If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

I like what you said in the last part.

If you can't bear with the lows then you can't go on and enjoy the highs. That's simple as that.

[amishmanish]

I agree to the OP that anybody who would have gotten in during the last phase of frenzy and ATH, with the over the top marketing about bitcoin to 100K or 1 Million. These people are the worst hit in the immediate correction. This has been happening for a long time. Not everybody has the patience and the financial capability to sustain those losses.

Those who can wait and keep holding are generally rewarded handsomely. Just keep learning and interacting within the various communities and projects. Find your niche and work on it. It takes time and effort more than just money and luck. But yeah, nothing better if you have shitload of luck..

[Darker45]

I am one of what you call retail users, if I understand it right. The current situation of the market is indeed painful but only from the point of view of the Bitcoin that I acquired when the price was higher. But it is a blessing from the point of view of the Bitcoin that I have yet to acquire in the following days.

So every time Bitcoin’s price moves in huge strides, the experience is bittersweet. In which case, there is really no reason to give up. Not to mention that I’ve been through worse days in the past. Just like the past bear cycles, this, too, shall pass.

And as always, those who persevere and continue to HODL strong shall be rewarded in the end.

[tbct_mt2]

Retail investors are mostly newbie investors and they are more likely speculators not investors. They are most vulnerable participants in the market with market crash, correction, wash out.

The market need capital flow to grow but retail investors or speculators don't have much capital. It's mainly from institutional investors and retail guys only join when the market is very hot. They will be washed out it hot corrections or crashes later.

The market can not go down forever and if you believe in Bitcoin, it is very good chance to invest or accumulate more.

[DaveF]

I am actually seeing the opposite. I am seeing a lot of discussions from people all over using this dip to cost average down. They even have the attitude that if it keeps dropping the will keep buying. Everyone sees what they want to see. If you think BTC will do well then you see this as a chance to acquire more if you think BTC will not succeed then you see this as justification that you are correct.

I see this as yet another cycle of BTC going up, then dropping then going up even more and having the cycle repeat.
Big big companies such as Intel: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382058 are thinking that BTC is a good place to be in terms of hardware.
And many financial institutions are also coming onboard with trading.

So, no I don't see retail users out at all.

-Dave

[hatshepsut93]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up.

Why you think that? Maybe it's the big investors who have given up, while the retail investors are hodling strong. Without any evidence, it's all nothing more but a speculation.

If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive

Bitcoin market is not strongly tied to news and sentiment. The recent rise from a correction of $30k to the new ATH happened without any notable news, really. And now it's falling without any significant news too. The crash is happening because stocks are crashing, and because Bitcoin market in general cools off because the rally has ended.

[masterrex]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

IMO, I believe that most of the retail users are always doing that ever since they are just in and out of the market and I believe that's normal, so that was not the main reason why the price has declined as much as it is today because as we know the market reacts in the news around us like the pandemic, regulations, wars, etc. factors like that are one of the many reasons that can influence the price movement.  

[Mariah20]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

We are also retail users and i have not sold in panic.

[Vaskiy]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

We are also retail users and i have not sold in panic.

You haven't, but majority will be in panic upon the sudden crash of the market. If the market have fallen gradually people might've gained some confidence to hold for some time period. Now the steep crash serves to be the reason for more selling. Importantly the market has much dependence over reatil people, so everyone haven't left. If everyone have left now the fall would be even down as most users mentioned.

Growth and crash are part of matured growth. If there is only straight growth without crash then it is something a manipulated growth.

[coolcoinz]

I feel that retail capitulation was in December. Many indicators show that most weak hands were actually flushed back then. You can find a number of similarities in the current correction with the ones in the past, especially if you look at the RSI.

The first big weak hand flush out was in 2020 when we hit 30k. Then scared retail investors waited longer, so they did not enter at 40k, most of them waited longer to around 60k, which is why we had a higher high back then. Smart money took positions at 35-40k and retail was scared of a lower high so they went in later and pushed the price to 69k, but it was the same retail that got flushed in Spring, with no FOMO crowd, which is why the top was so low. There was no mania phase this time.

You can also see this by comparing the big capitulation candles in May and December. The first one happened later and went deeper down because retail bought earlier and could hold longer in the falling market. (40-30k) In December the candle started higher (50k-40k) which indicates that retail was pushed to the limit at higher prices. They waited longer with their buys and bought closer to the peak.

IMO this is good because it indicates that smart money entry level was higher in Q4 2020 than in Q1, which suggests that a low should also be higher. There's more long term holders at higher levels now than in Spring.

[Baofeng]

After tested to max. pain limit during last 3 months and continuously suffering financially and mentally, I think the retail users have given up. If so, this is not good scenario. If soon there are no new & much positive vibes in the market, the things can go lower. Is not??
But my point of view is that in the highly sophisticated and versatile market there is a clause who stand till end will grow with market growth.

I don't think that retail investors have given up, maybe they sell but not all of their stash. And you can't blame them though, this is really tough times to see the price being slash by 50% from it's all time high. Nevertheless, those retail investors have a lot of time to think and maybe will go and comeback if the price goes lower than $30k before the price is again on a discount.

[ChrisPop]

Indeed, Bitcoin seems to reward hodlers aka long - term investors, but so do the equity markets or any asset that has strong fundamentals. Equity markets thrive thanks to the raising productivity growth while Bitcoin keeps conquering bear markets thanks to its characteristics that make it a goods store-of-value and not only.

*Note that the Bitcoin holders are rewarded much handsomely because of the novelty of the asset class. The perceived risk is higher, but so it is the reward.

[Slow death]

It's amazing that whenever the price of bitcoin drops a lot people keep complaining every day, but when the price goes up a lot they don't complain about the danger of someone buying at the top. and we have to take into account that with every fall there is someone who will buy a lot and sell with every big price increase

and speaking of buying in every fall:

El Salvador buys its cheapest 410 Bitcoin as prices reach $36K

[KingTin]

The volume outside US stock market has dropped, but this is probably a good thing.
lots of retailers are just waiting for the bottom, I suspect a recovery would be a few big green sticks for a few days and we will have more retailers going back in, and then the rest of the world jumping in again.

That being said, the biggest problem really is the entire market overall, equity market is suffering a lot as well and has been pretty poor for the past few months (if not year). A lot of growth stocks are still hurting BAD.