Are spectacular returns over for bitcoin?

[Poker Player]

I think this will have to be considered. Especially if we don't break $70K in this cycle, which would be only 3.5x the ath of the previous cycle.

Call me pessimistic if you want, but being as we are, with institutional adoption, starting state adoption in some cases, Bitcoins leaving the exchanges for a long time, hashrate at maximums, everyone with bullish predictions for last year, even former Bitcoin haters reconverted, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

What is clear is that it is easier for something worth $0.01 to become worth $1 than for something worth $10K to become worth $1M.

Thus, maybe the most we can expect for future cycles is a tripling of the previous ath. Maybe quadruple in some given cycle. But not to multiply the previous ath by 20 or more.

On a personal level, nothing changes for me. I have been doing DCA for years with the S&P 500 and I've been through similar bumps, if the price goes down, you keep buying and forget about it, just like if it goes up a lot. So I will continue to do the same both with the S&P and Bitcoin.

What I do think needs to be considered, especially if the price does not recover this year, are more realistic return forecasts for the future.

Edit: update from June 19, 2022 after Bitcoin price broke down to $18K.

[1715092668]

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[1715092668]

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[mk4]

Of course the returns are going to get lower and lower. I mean, at some point it will be totally be unrealistic to expect quick multipliers like what we've had.

But really, it really isn't totally a bad thing. Bitcoin had bigger multipliers in the past simply because it was far more risky back then; with far less products, far less actually-savvy investor holders, or just adoption in general. A lot of people think that lower price automatically means lower risk, but that's definitely not the case with bitcoin and some assets.

In summary: Bitcoin is highly likely to have less multipliers as mcap goes up, but with less risk. Pretty much like bitcoin moved from being a micro cap stock to a blue chip. Still one of the best r/r asset investments in my book.

[_act_]

If we check the demand, supply and the limited supply of bitcoin which is 21 million bitcoin, it is true that people that invested at early stage are the ones that have most gain. When bitcoin was at $1, only little amount of money was required to increase the price bitcoin to $2, the more bitcoin is known and people buying it, the price rose but the money to make its price to double are getting higher.

When bitcoin was at young age, only few people will be involved to multiply its price by 2 because only little marketcap is needed, comparing it with this time, more people are involved, the market can not be manipulated this time unlike before and more people are needed to make the price volatile only few needed in the past.

All I have been saying is that it is true that for the price of bitcoin, It can not increase as much as before, but this is helping to lessen volatile also. This is called maturation, bitcoin is getting matue. More rich people may later because of this invest in bitcoin.

But if bitcoin do not that increasing like before after many adoption, remember that it will help against the inflation that makes fiat value to be reducing, if paired with fiat, it will be the winner.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Call me pessimistic if you want

Its not pessimistic mate. This is an optimistic scenario because it assumes further growth and development of bitcoin. We could expect spectacular returns only after a dump from current $35k back to 3k$. Only this will give us space for "spectacular returns". But if we take optimistic scenario and further growth and development of bitcoin I expect bitcoin to stabilize in about 5-10 years and outperform gold x2 in next 20 years. So if gold yell around 10% annulaly on average - "Between January 1971 and December 2019, gold had average annual returns of 10.61 percent," I expect bitcoin to do around 20% annually on average which gives us 2 mln $ price target after 20 years.

There is a very popular chart that also proves your point:


https://forum.orgones.co.uk/t/bitcoin-price-may-be-following-a-square-root-function-of-the-logarithmic-chart/4649

I think that everyone has seen it before. Shows that possible gains are slowing down. Chart shows possible x3 in 4 years on this chart from 100k to 300k. Instead of x20 from 2013 ATH to 2017 ATH (also 4 years)

[Lucius]

~snip~

Maybe some beginners like to live in delusion, but I guess most are clear that they can't expect Bitcoin to bring them x20 or x50 in the next 10 or even 20 years. What I don't like is that these facts will really help all those altcoins that promise spectacular profits, and from my personal experience, a lot of small investors are looking for their profit in altcoins. Personal freedom is a matter for each individual, who we are to tell people what to do with their money - but they need to know the risks, as well as that without the success of Bitcoin, the whole crypto market cannot function.

It is easy for me to say that this situation does not affect me because I have experienced much worse, but I can very easily put myself in the position of those who have invested in Bitcoin in the past 6 months, and now nothing is clear to them.

Confused looks and just one question heard everywhere "But sir, shouldn't Bitcoin be worth at least $100k, what about PlanB?"

[hatshepsut93]

I also believe this is the case, but as long as Bitcoin is going up and not down, it's fine in my book. Plus, if you have been amassing coins for a long time, you probably have more than one coin, so that's hundreds of thousands of dollars in gains per cycle, which is pretty good. Also, the slow down of Bitcoin growth is a good opportunity to diversify into traditional investments, like stocks and real estate.

[Wexnident]

I think it would be natural to consider it? Considering the difference in the value of $1 and $1M and the possible growth difference between the two, well, It isn't that odd to consider it. I myself had considered investing in Bitcoin sometimes since even if I did invest, at most, I'd probably get thrice to 4 times the value of my investment, unlike way back then. Well, that was a "had" moment, still invested and went on with my life. It's still a return of investment and honestly, I have far less risk than those who invested back then, why would I complain still?

[timerland]

Definitely expect calmer seas in the upcoming months/years.

As anticipated, this bull market run didn't have as much % ROI as previous ones just because of the fact that BTC market cap is already so mature.

Same trend will continue to happen even past this bear market. Obviously expect huge dumps this bear market and for the $20k support to be tested, but apart from that future bull markets should also be relatively tamed compared to the current one.

[Fundamentals Of]

It is a fact that Bitcoin’s price multiplying tens of folds in just a few years is already a thing of the past. That’s not going to happen with Bitcoin reaching $40,000 or $60,000 or $80,000.

It is true that early adopters are both lucky and brave. They came across Bitcoin and obtained some at just the perfect time. Of course, Bitcoin would still double, triple, and even quadruple but it will take a longer time.

To those who are planning to get into Bitcoin, they should not compare what they’ve learned from it’s price history and the situation of Bitcoin today. They should set longer terms in today’s situation. There is no way they could get rich overnight at this phase of Bitcoin’s growth.

But all this doesn’t mean Bitcoin has lost its bullish growth. Bitcoin couldn’t be more bullish. It’s simply that it is easier for $0.01 to grow to $1 than $60,000 to grow to $150,000.

[adaseb]

No the returns for Bitcoin aren’t going to make you rich anymore. Maybe $34K was the local bottom and we can go back to $70K or even $100K. How much profit is that? About 3x. And that’s only if you buy at the low and sell at the absolute high which is not realistic.

Gone are the days when people bought BTC at $100 or mined 50BTC blocks with their GPUs. So Bitcoin won’t make you rich anymore. This is why many people are putting money into NFTs, DeFI, Meme coins, Meta, etc.

Imagine buying doge at 1 penny and selling at 70 cents a few months later. Those are amazing profits. However those investments are extremely risky.

[Poker Player]

Gone are the days when people bought BTC at $100 or mined 50BTC blocks with their GPUs. So Bitcoin won’t make you rich anymore

I would say that's only half true. Bitcoin is still good for getting rich if you have patience and a long term plan. Or better said, to improve your economic situation. Getting rich will depend on how we define it, your starting situation, monthly/annual investment and time.

Bitcoin it's not good for is hitting the big bucks in a short time. That has gone to the alts.

Imagine buying doge at 1 penny and selling at 70 cents a few months later.

Yeah but imagine buying any shitcoin at x price and selling at a loss some months after, which is what usually happens. Or maybe even being unable to sell it. For every one who hits the jackpot there are more than 90 who lose, and more with the thousands of shitcoin out there.

[batang_bitcoin]

What is clear is that it is easier for something worth $0.01 to become worth $1 than for something worth $10K to become worth $1M.

I've seen people posting comparisons of the prices of bitcoin starting from 2011 to the present. In the past years, bitcoin's price multiplied more than it was during the bull run. As we have reached $69k, it's likely that it won't go more than 5x when we head for another cycle within the next few years. So, after this upcoming halving that's coming within the next 2 years, it's likely that we get 1.5x to 4x (probably maximum) IMHO.

[UnDerDoG81]

People are not satisfied with 2-3x anymore. They dont even happy with 10x. They want 100x or 1000x. Within a week. That's why lots of money flow into shittiest shitcoins and Bitcoin aint pumping anymore. Only on dumps, capital flows into Bitcoin but that does not make it pump.

[stompix]

What is clear is that it is easier for something worth $0.01 to become worth $1 than for something worth $10K to become worth $1M.

Not to everyone.
Poeple are always looking at percentages rather than the value itself.
In your example, both are 100x, but for the first one the effort was 99 cents, and for the second $990 000, 1 million times more money was needed. If we go full pessimistic mode, and we analyze just the value without extrapolation, the results are completely different, it gained 40k from 2017, so it will gain another 40k in, better stop here because this is overbearish even for me.

I would say that's only half true. Bitcoin is still good for getting rich if you have patience and a long term plan. Or better said, to improve your economic situation. Getting rich will depend on how we define it, your starting situation, monthly/annual investment and time.

Getting rich?
It's again a thing of debating what rich means, a life without caring in an expensive country? You will need a lot of money to invest even now, and poeple who afford that money for investment must be doing quite well themselves. Somebody with 100$ to spare, how could he get rich? Even if BTC hits 50million, he will have 100k, far from being rich even by 3rd world countries.

But there is one good thing if this mirage is dispelled, BTC strongpoints can come again in the spotlight, once the discussions about the price going up and down are done as nothing spectacular happens, poeple might talk how useful it is and how it can actually improve things and replace expensive or incomplete solutions.
Either way, that time will come, we can't go endlessly with just price speculation

What I don't like is that these facts will really help all those altcoins that promise spectacular profits, and from my personal experience, a lot of small investors are looking for their profit in altcoins.

Unfortunately, that's an unwanted consequence, and with the amount of money pumper have made to date these so-called projects will not cease for a long time, there is an influx of possible victims that is simply feeding these at insane levels. On the surface nothing new, there have been events like these in the past in different sectors, hundreds of goldrushes have happened but right now it's too damn easy to invest in these, there is no barrier, buying crypto is as easy as buying a pizza now and its the same for the ones creating the scam, one website, a bounty to spread the word, 100$ on a shiny WP and that's it.

It will end only when the number of poeple losing money will be a clear majority, but it's not really something to be thrilled of happening.

[Lucius]

Unfortunately, that's an unwanted consequence, and with the amount of money pumper have made to date these so-called projects will not cease for a long time, there is an influx of possible victims that is simply feeding these at insane levels. On the surface nothing new, there have been events like these in the past in different sectors, hundreds of goldrushes have happened but right now it's too damn easy to invest in these, there is no barrier, buying crypto is as easy as buying a pizza now and its the same for the ones creating the scam, one website, a bounty to spread the word, 100$ on a shiny WP and that's it.

It will end only when the number of poeple losing money will be a clear majority, but it's not really something to be thrilled of happening.

I can't say that CMC and its statistics are a good or bad indicator, but it seems to me that maybe a little less than 1 year ago the number of cryptos listed was around 13 000, and today it has already exceeded 17 000 - maybe the memory deceives me, but I don't remember any such spectacular increases in the past. As we have already had the opportunity to discuss on this topic, it seems that every kid today wants to have his own cryptocurrency and get rich before he turns 18.

It has always been easy for people to sell all kinds of rubbish, especially if it is nicely packaged - today it has become even easier because people have become obviously even stupider than before. A kid who makes millions by selling his pictures (NTF) of himself sitting in front of a computer is more than good proof that this is the case.

[stompix]

I can't say that CMC and its statistics are a good or bad indicator, but it seems to me that maybe a little less than 1 year ago the number of cryptos listed was around 13 000, and today it has already exceeded 17 000 - maybe the memory deceives me, but I don't remember any such spectacular increases in the past.

Because it has never been easier.
Before you had to create a POW coin, get hashrate, get on exchanges, even with PoS the whole financing method for shitcoins was really hard.
Now we have tokens and token factories, you pay a few hundred $ and you have a token, the owners of the chain on which you based it are welcoming you as it needs more activity, with thousands of swaps suddenly it's easier to convert from other coins into you shitcoin and it's easier to get away with your scam. Basically right now everyone is helping a shitcoin to grow because it helps them grow, and nobody cares about what will happen longtime.

As we have already had the opportunity to discuss on this topic, it seems that every kid today wants to have his own cryptocurrency and get rich before he turns 18

What really pissed me off on these get-rich stories is how people praise your investors who now make pics with tons of cash and cars, without realizing for them to get that they must have sold their stash and are now getting out.


Is he a model for bitcoiners? I hope not! For a lot of crypto holders he is!
But, nothing we can de, the madness will stop on its own just like every other, but of course with dire consequences for some.

[thecodebear]

Well yes of course returns will slow down. The larger an asset is the harder it is to move.

Bitcoin is out of its 'get-rich-quick' phase of pure retail speculation on a small cap asset and now it is establishing itself as a safe long term global store of value. Notice how most retail speculators have gone to the altcoin market. Between meme token lovers and Defi maxis they are all chasing the next pump and dump or the next dapp (which is likely also a pump and dump). Some will get lucky on those, most will lose money. But that's where the huge bursts of retail money go now - random crap. While smart money gradually keeps flowing into Bitcoin. But yeah it's not going to 20x in a year anymore. I'd say for the rest of this decade an average annual growth rate of 40%-50% for Bitcoin would be good and reasonable. And before you say that's no good, realize that would put Bitcoin at between about $700k and $1.2 million before 2030.

Bitcoin has simply transitioned from the get rich quick speculative gamble where a new influx of investors can easily drastically out invest all who were already there, to the safe fast wealth builder. The nice thing about this is crypto winters are probably gone. The days of sitting around for two years wondering if Bitcoin will come back up are over. The price is likely to appreciate every year barring some global economic catastrophe.

We're still in the early phase of adoption for Bitcoin, but we're no longer in the early everyone immediately gets rich in a single halving cycle phase.

[adaseb]

Most of the people that started investing in 2021 only did it because they knew Bitcoin went from $1K to $20K about 4 years prior and they are expecting the same kind of returns.

So they take out a calculator and put $20K x 20 and are expecting a price of $400,000. So this is the reason why many retail didn’t take much profits before $100K hit. They all believed that planB guy on Twitter who said $100k was guaranteed in November and never took profits at $69K.

Same with people who bought ETH, they were expecting at least $10k and perhaps $5k and neither were hit.

[Findingnemo]

We already touched 65K right so that is somewhere in the region of the calculation so I consider it as the ATH and I expect the further price hike in the next cycle depends on lot of factors. Yesterday we saw another nose dive followed by 7% spike now again its in mid 36k but still I don't think its recovery I am waiting for the price to fall below, anything below 20K will be the good time for me to invest all the profits I made from the previous cycle.

[Mamun74]

Bitcoin price already reached $65k+ previous year.I  believe  bitcoin price movement still correction. Bitcoin journey is long term for me actually most people journey start 2020-2021 but when bitcoin price was $400-$500 This time we had start journey. I hope bitcoin price will recover soon.Coz bitcoin is mots popular and most valuable coin.I hope bitcoin price will be more increase and it will be reach in $70k+ this year.