Prediction: Low was $34K or will be ~$25K

[adaseb]

Alright so here is my take on what the low will be this cycle.

We had a low of $34K mostly due to cryptos close correlation with the stock market. And now that we are bouncing the funding rate is negative. Which means traders are bearish. Exactly what happened at $30K in the Summer and $40K the months following. However the bounce seems a little weak so we might top at $40K and head back down again…

And I don’t see $28-30K being the low hold. It’ll be like the $6K from 2018. Everybody wants to long $30K and most likely will be a bull trap and when it breaks pivot lows, it’ll send a cascade all the way to around $25K. Which will most likely be the low.

Why? Because nobody will want to buy at $25K because they will think $20K is next and it seems like a better and smarter buy than $25 K since it’s the top of 2017.

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

Everyone didn’t buy at $34K because $30K was a better buy.
Everyone wants to buy at $30K instead of $34K
When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.
Since everyone wants to buy at $20K it’ll most likely never reach that area.

So bottom is $34K or $25K give or take a K or so.

Might not happen until April when tax selling is over and done with.

[jackg]

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

[adaseb]

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

There are too many technical traders out there. Remember when a bunch of people got extremely bearish when we touched $20K about a year ago, they were all predicting a double top.

Now many are treating this $30K area like $6K. And think it will hold. I don’t think that will be the case. It would be too obvious. We might get a few higher lows but eventually I see the $30k breaking.

If $25K isn’t the low the obviously the 200WMA is the last area of support that I see before we head down to like $15K or something.

[mk4]

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

While I totally agree with this part, isn't it pretty difficult to gauge what price you think people will want to actually buy? This is actually the first time I've heard that people wanted $20k, as I'm mostly hearing like $26k-28k. Which proves my point that opinions of the "best" buy price are literally all over the place.

Also taking note that the unexpectedness of markets can also be on the downside — whereas if $20k is where people wanted to buy(and switch to bullishness), it could also mean we can go far lower than that.

[cabron]

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

$29k has the biggest support line, it's very visible in the chart so if that support breaks the crash may continue down to $20k which may likely be what some of us are eyeing to buy. It's going to be a bigger crash if that also breaks out.

For now the price is just floating and there is nothing else that may trigger the price to go up. The positive signs are there however because even when Biden is up to sign Bitcoin regulation again, the price wasn't affected.

[Reatim]

Alright so here is my take on what the low will be this cycle.

We had a low of $34K mostly due to cryptos close correlation with the stock market. And now that we are bouncing the funding rate is negative. Which means traders are bearish. Exactly what happened at $30K in the Summer and $40K the months following. However the bounce seems a little weak so we might top at $40K and head back down again…

And I don’t see $28-30K being the low hold. It’ll be like the $6K from 2018. Everybody wants to long $30K and most likely will be a bull trap and when it breaks pivot lows, it’ll send a cascade all the way to around $25K. Which will most likely be the low.

Sorry for correcting mate but I think it is 33,000$ and not 34k$ that makes the lowest price recently .

Why? Because nobody will want to buy at $25K because they will think $20K is next and it seems like a better and smarter buy than $25 K since it’s the top of 2017.

If you are not greed enough then you know that that is only a 5k difference that if you made a wrong decision then you end up missing the chance of buying low.

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

And instead of waiting for the Bottom why not buy in the middle or at least before the bottom reached .

[Charles-Tim]

Let us remember that be it the bull or bear, 1 BTC remain 1 BTC. Although, it will be better to buy during onset of bull run after the market has significantly fallen.

And I don’t see $28-30K being the low hold. It’ll be like the $6K from 2018.

You are the second person that have posted about $6000 price low recently, but is this possible? I do not think it will be possible. Bitcoin is never fallen below $10000 again. I had an analysis for my prediction.

When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.

With what you are implying, the price of bitcoin will significantly fall if the $30000 support is broken. I do not believe this, even if the $30000 support is broken, it will still be a long journey to fall below $20000. I mean it will be an event of buying and selling even if its price go below $30000.

What I can never believe is for bitcoin price to ever go below $10000 ever again.

[jackg]

There are too many technical traders out there. Remember when a bunch of people got extremely bearish when we touched $20K about a year ago, they were all predicting a double top.

Now many are treating this $30K area like $6K. And think it will hold. I don’t think that will be the case. It would be too obvious. We might get a few higher lows but eventually I see the $30k breaking.

If $25K isn’t the low the obviously the 200WMA is the last area of support that I see before we head down to like $15K or something.

I've not paid much attention to "analysts" there are far too many and a few just look like they could've had some lucky guesses that got them where they are at this point.

And yeah I could see us breaking $30k but I'm not sure how decisive any move will be. Investors seem to be expecting more drops in stocks (specifically tech stocks too) so we might see that hitting bitcoin again and causing an event similar to what we had at the start of the pandemic.

I do think if $30k is new $6k, $15k may as well be the new $3k too and a break that far wouldn't be unlikely.

$29k has the biggest support line, it's very visible in the chart so if that support breaks the crash may continue down to $20k which may likely be what some of us are eyeing to buy. It's going to be a bigger crash if that also breaks out.

For now the price is just floating and there is nothing else that may trigger the price to go up. The positive signs are there however because even when Biden is up to sign Bitcoin regulation again, the price wasn't affected.

There's probably a lot of people trying to time the market and wait for sub 29k though, we can break it and go down to 25k but I imagine it being a bit more of a flash crash than a sustained move (if it's sustained for a few hours, lower is probably possible then though as some people will get bored of holding if all they're doing is watching their funds diminish.

[bbc.reporter]

Could we not even say your 25k figure was a bit low?

I think people might look to buy at 25k or 30k so much that it COULD drop down back to the 28.3k we saw last time and then take a large bounce up from there (I made a thread here a few weeks before then saying I didn't think it was unreasonable for us to hit near 29k but not go below it, and we got into the 28k regions then so)...

There are too many technical traders out there. Remember when a bunch of people got extremely bearish when we touched $20K about a year ago, they were all predicting a double top.

Now many are treating this $30K area like $6K. And think it will hold. I don’t think that will be the case. It would be too obvious. We might get a few higher lows but eventually I see the $30k breaking.

If $25K isn’t the low the obviously the 200WMA is the last area of support that I see before we head down to like $15K or something.

Agreed, $30k might break, however, no one can predict how low the market makers can manipulate this market. Market makers similar to Alameda Research have presently be in control of this market, if they will try to cause a liquidity cascade this will certainly happen. Similar to @adaseb’s speculation it might be during April when market makers begin to file for tax payments, also to possibly get cheaper cost basis.

[Ararbermas]

I think that's too much for the next support which is 25k.. Because indeed the price still holding at the previous support wherein approximately 37k and seems stable in my views. And the market is gradually showing green at this point as well so perhaps its impossible to happen wherein unless if there's another negative news that can impact the market because surely there will be a new level on this situation in my personal opinion.

[Baofeng]

I think $25k will be a good buy option, its just a question on when we are going to hit that price.

If people are going to wait, then probably this price will not be touch in the next couple of months. If people are buying even at the current price, then definitely we will not hit ~$30k. So hard to see what will be the floor prize at least for this year. So let's wait till April or at least the end of first quarter, lots of things could be in store for us, so better expect the unexpected.

[GreatArkansas]

(.....)
Everyone didn’t buy at $34K because $30K was a better buy.
Everyone wants to buy at $30K instead of $34K
When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.
Since everyone wants to buy at $20K it’ll most likely never reach that area.

So bottom is $34K or $25K give or take a K or so.
(....)

True. $30,000 is very strong psychological support here or other $10,000 levels like $40,000/ $20,000.
So for me, waiting for these kinds of price levels seems to have a low chance, that's why having a position near these psychological supports/resistance is the better entry for me.
When I say psychological supports/resistance, most people tend to think these levels are important is it is level by $10,000s.

[wavessurfing]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59111929#msg59111929

BTC stored in exchange wallets is now frankly diminishing, so the low price is over...
you can buy.
in effect, this means that less people are going to sell, and that shorts will then reduce accordingly.

[davis196]

The current price is 38K USD.Is this a bull trap or price recovery?I don't know.Nobody knows.
You say that the traders will be waiting for the lowest possible Bitcoin price,before they start buying.
I think that 1 cent or 1 dollar is the lowest price of Bitcoin,but this price ain't gonna happen anymore.
I guess that some traders thought that 34K is the lowest price,so they have already started buying.

We had a low of $34K mostly due to cryptos close correlation with the stock market.

The crypto market and the stock market don't have a "close correlation".
They just reacted to the same bearish news coming from the Federal Reserve-upcoming interest rates increase,less quantitative easing,etc.Such news have an influence over all financial markets,but that doesn't mean that the different markets have some kind of correlation between each other.

[Russlenat]

I think that's too much for the next support which is 25k.. Because indeed the price still holding at the previous support wherein approximately 37k and seems stable in my views. And the market is gradually showing green at this point as well so perhaps its impossible to happen wherein unless if there's another negative news that can impact the market because surely there will be a new level on this situation in my personal opinion.

I would not be surprised if bitcoin will hit $25k, it happened in the past, so it's possible it will happen again. Compared the last bull run and then correction afterwards, I think the current price is still not too low, IMO, if there's more panic which could possibly happen due to whales manipulating the market, bitcoin could even hit below $20k IMO.

[Taskford]

I think that's too much for the next support which is 25k.. Because indeed the price still holding at the previous support wherein approximately 37k and seems stable in my views. And the market is gradually showing green at this point as well so perhaps its impossible to happen wherein unless if there's another negative news that can impact the market because surely there will be a new level on this situation in my personal opinion.

I would not be surprised if bitcoin will hit $25k, it happened in the past, so it's possible it will happen again. Compared the last bull run and then correction afterwards, I think the current price is still not too low, IMO, if there's more panic which could possibly happen due to whales manipulating the market, bitcoin could even hit below $20k IMO.

Possibilities are their knowing that there's no good news popping up and the one we see right now are those negative news which can affect the peoples mindset towards the current happening on bitcoin so maybe we can see that price to be reached since as you said what happen from the past may also happen today so I guess from that we need to prepare to pick up some of it since for sure if that time came and bitcoin could ever reach to that $25k or worse to 4 digits number then for sure we can see a huge accumulation phase from the whales.

[wavessurfing]

.................

Possibilities are their knowing that there's no good news popping up and the one we see right now are those negative news which can affect the peoples mindset towards the current happening on bitcoin
..................................................
so I guess from that we need to prepare to pick up some of it since for sure if that time came and bitcoin could ever reach to that $25k or worse to 4 digits number then for sure we can see a huge accumulation phase from the whales.

this is precisely a good and strategic news.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg59111929#msg59111929

[molsewid]

Possibilities are their knowing that there's no good news popping up and the one we see right now are those negative news which can affect the peoples mindset towards the current happening on bitcoin so maybe we can see that price to be reached since as you said what happen from the past may also happen today so I guess from that we need to prepare to pick up some of it since for sure if that time came and bitcoin could ever reach to that $25k or worse to 4 digits number then for sure we can see a huge accumulation phase from the whales.

Aiming the best for bitcoin market but also prepare for worst, cryptocurrency especially bitcoin is so volatile and yeah any possibilities are possible. So far, we didn't hear any good news that will boost up the market price of bitcoin but I do hope that bitcoin price will not go deep in a $25k or lower. But if in any cases this is where the best time to accumulate bitcoin and yeah for sure whales will going to accumulate as much as they can, so better be preapre for the worst time.

[crzy]

I think that's too much for the next support which is 25k.. Because indeed the price still holding at the previous support wherein approximately 37k and seems stable in my views. And the market is gradually showing green at this point as well so perhaps its impossible to happen wherein unless if there's another negative news that can impact the market because surely there will be a new level on this situation in my personal opinion.

I would not be surprised if bitcoin will hit $25k, it happened in the past, so it's possible it will happen again. Compared the last bull run and then correction afterwards, I think the current price is still not too low, IMO, if there's more panic which could possibly happen due to whales manipulating the market, bitcoin could even hit below $20k IMO.

There’s a possibility buy I’m confident that it won’t happen since the market starts to recover the price of Bitcoin becomes more stable at the level of $36k-$37k, so most probably we are just waiting for more good news. Though if panic is really here in the market and they are unstoppable we might see the price of $30k but I can’t still believe for $25k because that is too much drop for me.

[sheenshane]

Remember… market does what the least amount participants expect.

Everyone didn’t buy at $34K because $30K was a better buy.
Everyone wants to buy at $30K instead of $34K
When $30K breaks… everyone will want to buy at $20K.
Since everyone wants to buy at $20K it’ll most likely never reach that area.

So bottom is $34K or $25K give or take a K or so.

Until such time they can't jump in when seeing the market at a bullish price of more than $35k because they are waiting lower than this.
IMO, anytime is a perfect time to buy and invest for a long-term purpose and a short term only, weeks or months.  This has been proven that after years passed Bitcoin price grow the price.  So if you have been bought this recent dump and waited for how many years it could be there's your profit.

It's unpredictable and we don't know until when the button of the price.  If you have spare money and buy when the price at $35k that's good and buy again when the price is below $30k that also seems good and holds for the long term.

Seeing the market price how it fluctuates I think it's a part of Bitcoin nature that is volatile.