How will Bitcoin behave in the approaching crisis?

[Xinarae*]

Bitcoin is decentralized and there is no control over it an increase in the amount of investment in bitcoin will increase its demand which will help the country to overcome the crisis there is no need for central bank in the age of technology. According to them corruption in the central banks and the damage caused by this corruption has become a concern in the economy of the common people bitcoin should be implemented if only one person transacts with another person and if the process is hassle free. Bitcoin should be approved in any country albeit to keep pace with the times and to survive in competition with other countries.

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[m2017]

I don't think Bitcoin was created in 2009 because of the crisis that started a year earlier, it was a coincidence if we take into account that Satoshi in his work was inspired by previous attempts to create something similar, and a good example is B-money , which emerged as an idea in 1998. I believe Satoshi worked on his project for years before he was ready to release it to the public.

Yes, I am aware that some concepts from earlier versions of electronic cast were used to create Bitcoin. Most likely it was that Satoshi had been developing he's project for more than one year.

I would not agree that Bitcoin was not tested in a crisis, if it was created only 1 year after one of them officially started - of course then and today are not comparable, but the first years of its existence Bitcoin actually lived in a great crisis.

Here I disagree with you. There is nothing wrong. How many people - so many opinions. That's why this topic was created to hear different points of view. For I believe that the more different points of view we know, the more complete picture of the current situation we can get.

At that moment, Bitcoin was unknown to anyone and was not used by anyone. I would not include that period in what the crisis found. The current situation is completely different: you yourself see the capitalization, the number of active wallets and transactions. Hash-rate after all. I assume that Bitcoin test by fire will be exactly in the coming years. A really difficult situation is foreseen.

Both options are possible, but I would not agree that most investors will turn to Bitcoin if the stock market starts to fail. The first reason is that most of them do not think that their money would be safe in Bitcoin due to possible hacking, insufficient regulation of the crypto market, and the fact that it is an extremely volatile asset. I think most of them will find their way out in real estate, gold and bonds, which in the end are still far more popular options than Bitcoin.

Thank you for your point of view and for taking the time to write this. I liked your version and it is quite possible.

[Lucius]

Yes, I am aware that some concepts from earlier versions of electronic cast were used to create Bitcoin. Most likely it was that Satoshi had been developing he's project for more than one year.

For now, we can only speculate when Satoshi actually came up with the idea to make Bitcoin and whether he had inspiration in any of the earlier projects that failed or remained just on the idea. Interestingly, B-money and Bit Gold (Nick Szabo) have one link, and that is the year 1998 in which both go public. Satoshi may have gotten the idea to create BTC back then or in the years to come, given that both projects have quite similarities to Bitcoin.

Here I disagree with you. There is nothing wrong. How many people - so many opinions. That's why this topic was created to hear different points of view. For I believe that the more different points of view we know, the more complete picture of the current situation we can get.

At that moment, Bitcoin was unknown to anyone and was not used by anyone. I would not include that period in what the crisis found. The current situation is completely different: you yourself see the capitalization, the number of active wallets and transactions. Hash-rate after all. I assume that Bitcoin test by fire will be exactly in the coming years. A really difficult situation is foreseen.

More opinions and critical thinking are always desirable and that has always been positive for me. Maybe we can say that Bitcoin was born during a great economic crisis and that it was making its first steps then, but that today it is a real teenager trying to stand by the side of much stronger and older than himself. I’m not a pessimist, but we all know how it mostly ends, in a battle between a bull that has big horns and one that has small horns, the latter mostly pulls out the thick end.

Thank you for your point of view and for taking the time to write this. I liked your version and it is quite possible.

I am always guided by the thought that the main reason why people do not invest more in Bitcoin because at least two things prevent them from doing so, the first is ignorance and the second is uncertainty about the future stemming from the fact that governments around the world do not have a clear position on these things - let's just take the example of Russia or India, and more recently the US, which is changing its position every month. This never creates a good climate for investors seeking security, even at the cost of minimal loss of investment. The fact that about $5 trillion has been invested in negative-yield bonds speaks volumes about what serious investors think.

The pool of subzero bonds -- which offer investors a guaranteed loss if held to maturity -- now stands at about $4.9 trillion, the lowest since December 2015

[beerlover]

Anyone who said that we will be going up during the crisis must be very new in the crypto world. We always go down with the world before we start to go up. Look at the march 2020 just recently, because of pandemic the price of oil, gold, stocks and even fiat value all dropped like crazy and crypto went down with them. Look at it after a year when stock market went high and you could see how it was crypto peak as well.

All those Elon Musk at 300+ billion days were bitcoins peak times as well. So, I would have to say that it is not really too different, there are of course periods where they act differently but that is not all the time, it is only rarely that it works together.

[Webetcoins]

This bubble thing warning is not new to us but how many times they say that bitcoin is a bubble? And bitcoin still did not popped but its still here alive and kicking but if ever there are other crisis that will occur I think that the price of btc is going to get affected because its crisis and crisis means something that is negative but the effects are only temporary and it shall soon pass.

People should not worry that much but I know that worrying of others cant be avoided, some would panic and this again can affect the price making the price more dump. The second scenario on your list can also happen because I  have seen this before where stocks are fallen but btc is rising because people temporarily transfer their funds here .

[dezoel]

Bitcoin is entirely different and is not  attached to any economy of sorts. So, if there happens to be a crisis and the economy of most countries around the world is losing its value, I don’t think it would have anything to do with Bitcoin or affect it at all, rather the value of Bitcoin would continue to increase as it is doing now.

That is one reason why all of us should make sure that we are fully investing in Bitcoin, because when such a time comes, anyone who has invested as early as now would be the one who would truly benefit from it. Definitely bitcoin is going to be a perfect hedge against all types of economic crisis and when more people do participant into bitcoin investments then it would be turning as a amazingly performing hedge fund.

[marine4u]

Yeah.  and bitcoin depends on the stock market?  Lol, Bitcoin could become a standard of accepted monetary practice in the future is another scenario and bitcoin's price action shows its cumulative dynamics throughout the long term.  On top of that, violations of geopolitical concerns can further generate inflation.  oil rose by 10 dollars and the next consequence?  Let's wait and see how bitcoin's price behavior could be the way it's been for years, for all the cycles of influence it could have.
The printers will continue to work harder to fill the gap, and bitcoin will go to $100k in a few years, it looks like the best-case scenario I guess.

[TribalBob]

in times of economic crisis, I think people will survive, and sell their assets to live,
I think bitcoin will continue to run but the existing price will go down slowly according to economic conditions
and the existing stock market

[RealMalatesta]

I think this is a bit wrong, if you look at today's market conditions and with the development of the correlation between bitcoin and the stock exchange, because bitcoin has never depended on any stock exchange and I have never seen the price of bitcoin affected by the stock market, only the stock market that depends at the current bitcoin price and this is also the same as what we see in binary options, if you say people will be disappointed until they will eventually leave bitcoin I think it has a possibility but this only affects those who have assets on certain stock exchanges, no for those who are outside of the stock exchange.

You must be very new in crypto. We have seen the stock market and crypto market moving up an down together in multiple times. You could even check from 2020 to 2022 and you could see how many times it crashed together and went up together as well. So, there is really no way that we could say they are independent from each other. This doesn't mean that they ALWAYS move together, of course there are times when they react differently to somethings.

However, considering there are also times when they act together, they are not totally irrelevant neither. There are special reasons why markets go down or up, and on this specific one, I have to say it is definitely positive approach to where we are in crypto and bad for the fiat world.

[CaptainCrapper]

Depends on how tech stocks will behave because they seem to move correlated for a while. I expect the growth/tech stocks to go down for a while till the FED decides to lower the interest rates again and that means crypto will also go down with the tech stocks.

There is a possibility that the FED will stop raising the rates after the first hike because even 1 rate hike might trigger a worldwide market crash. In that scenario you may get yourself a good buy opportunity in March.

Market tradition is a pump and dump but lots of time markets are trying to dip and lots of bad and good news coming so waiting for good something.

[kryptqnick]

It's a good topic, and I'm curious to see what the majority believe. It's true that Bitcoin didn't face a complete economic collapse, but there was something I'd like to use as a base for my prediction: March of 2020, when Covid was declared a pandemic (can't believe there was a time before Covid, to be honest). The stock market (I'm looking at the S&P 500 chart as a reference) went down but started recovering in April, making a full recovery to pre-pandemic value by August of 2020. Bitcoin's behavior was very similar in that case, but while it was the biggest recent crash for the stock market, Bitcoin has had more significant rises and crashes since then. So my guess is that Bitcoin will initially go down along with everything else, but it will start recovering within a couple of months, and will do that faster than the stock market because Bitcoin doesn't really depend on world's economy and because it will probably receive investments from those fleeing the crashing stock market. And then Bitcoin will have its own high and low points, while the world economy simply keeps crawling back up.

[m2017]

Eh....if we are in an "everything bubble" then why would anyone expect bitcoin not to crash when everything else does? 

Why wouldn't such a scenario happen? I'm curious to hear others' opinions on this question. To do this, I created this topic: to discuss all sorts of scenarios for the development of events.

When I took economics years ago in college, one of the first things the professor did in class was to say this:  "Ask 10 economists a question and you'll get 11 different answers". 

"11 answers to 10 questions" - I think this is normal. How many different people, so many different opinions they will have. This suggests that no one knows the future and this future is not predetermined, but we can try to predict the situation. The more different opinions we take into account, the closer to reality our forecasts can turn out to be.

So even though OP linked to two articles (which I haven't read yet but will) predicting economic doomsday, that doesn't mean either of them are right. 

You are absolutely right and I don't claim that everything described in the articles is true and is 100% implemented. I want to pay attention to what experienced financiers are warning about and prepare for the worst-case scenario they predict. If a person is ready for a future problem, then when it arises, this problem is no longer so dangerous.

On the other hand, my personal opinion is that there is indeed a crash coming, and it's going to be a big one--at least in the stock market. Stocks have been on a rip-roaring, drunken tear for over a decade now, and that can't be sustained indefinitely. 

I have exactly the same premonition and also adhere to this possible scenario.

OP, I don't understand what you mean here in the part that I've bolded:

Bitcoin will collapse along with the market, because it is directly correlated and dependent on the stock market and behaves like a technology company aka Google (some people think so).

Some are of this opinion. An example of this.

I don't think bitcoin is at all dependent on what the stock market does.  I'm not even sure I agree that it behaves like a tech stock other than the fact that it's extremely volatile. 

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Everyone's opinions don't have to be the same. This is fine.

What I do think is that whenever stocks crash in a big way, bitcoin will probably at least slide downward.  And if we go into a major recession I'm almost certain bitcoin will take a massive hit.

And here our opinions coincide.