🏆 2022 OSCARS - Nominees, Odds and Predictions!

[Rikafip]

You got to be a good movie critic to learn who to put your money on. Oscar date is far yet so there maybe time to watch those movies or perhaps just go with whats been talked on celebrity forums and find out of their hints.

Yeah, I think it helps with betting if you watch the nominated movies, but you just have to differentiate what you personally think is the best movie, and which one you would like to win, and sometimes those two are the same thing.

What's also important is to avoid betting on certain Oscar  category if odds are too low. For example, in the last year's Oscar thread I said that 1.08 on Chadwick Boseman winning best actor award is a bad bet. And remember what happened? He lost and Anthony Hopkins won the award, and I must say it was a well deserved win as he was my favorite as well.

I wouldn't bet on Chadwick Boseman winning the Oscar not because I don't think that he will win it (on the contrary, seems like he is obviously the the favorite) but because odds given are way too low. With odds ranging from 1.05-1.08 you would have to bet a lot to get any decent return, and I think that risk/reward ratio in this case ain't good at all, therefore making it a bad bet.

If odds were let's say 1.3-1.4, then I would certainly think about taking that bet, but with 1.08? No chance! I generally avoid such a low odds, no matter what I am betting on. Too many times lost while taking sub 1.1 odds not to learn the lesson.

Facebook will be a good source of info as there are good discussions of whos going to win which awards. From what I observe, the best director award also wins the best pictures, best actor and some. You agree?

More often than not (last 2 years) director of movie that wins best Picture Award also wins the one for directing, but that's not the rule. For example, few years ago Green Book won Best Picture award while Peter Farrelly didn't win an Oscar for directing (that went to Cuaron for Roma which was for me the best movie that year).

[bbc.reporter]

You got to be a good movie critic to learn who to put your money on. Oscar date is far yet so there maybe time to watch those movies or perhaps just go with whats been talked on celebrity forums and find out of their hints.

Yeah, I think it helps with betting if you watch the nominated movies, but you just have to differentiate what you personally think is the best movie, and which one you would like to win, and sometimes those two are the same thing.

What's also important is to avoid betting on certain Oscar  category if odds are too low. For example, in the last year's Oscar thread I said that 1.08 on Chadwick Boseman winning best actor award is a bad bet. And remember what happened? He lost and Anthony Hopkins won the award, and I must say it was a well deserved win as he was my favorite as well.

Agreed. Watching movies will certainly help you choose your bets for the minor categories. I am not certain if the best adapted and original screenplay categories is a minor or a major category, however, after I watched The Licorice Pizza I knew it would be my bet for best screenplay. The odds confirmed it when the sportsbooks began listing it.

On Chadwick Boseman, we should also know in what political storyline the academy voters are in the mood for hehehe. The academy members might have wanted to forget the memory of black lives matter and voted for the actor with priest role hehehehe.

[Rikafip]

I am not certain if the best adapted and original screenplay categories is a minor or a major category, however, after I watched The Licorice Pizza I knew it would be my bet for best screenplay. The odds confirmed it when the sportsbooks began listing it.

You liked Licorice Pizza so much? For me it's one of the weakest movies in the "Best Picture" category and a big disappointment, probably because I usually like Paul Thomas Anderson movies but this one simply didn't sit well with me. My personal favorite among "best original screenplay" (I think its an important category) movies is probably Don't Look Up, even though I think it won't win the award. Overall this year's best original screenplay category is kinda weak.

On Chadwick Boseman, we should also know in what political storyline the academy voters are in the mood for hehehe. The academy members might have wanted to forget the memory of black lives matter and voted for the actor with priest role hehehehe.

Hah yeah, he was favorite purely because of his death and all the "Black Lives Matter" stuff, but it was perfectly clear to everyone that Anthony Hopkins performance was superior. Then again, being the best actor of the year doesn't mean that you will get the Oscar and same thing goes for every other category.


Last night I watched another "Best Picture" nominee, Spielberg's West Side Story. Another big disappointment, no chemistry between main characters at all.  I have no idea how that ended up being nominated in that category, maybe because Steven Spielberg reputation. It's one of those movies that shouldn't have been made at all, since the original West Side Story from 1961 still works. After all, that movie won 10 Oscars back in the day.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Odds are good by the looks of it, its just there are too many options. You got to be a good movie critic to learn who to put your money on. Oscar date is far yet so there maybe time to watch those movies or perhaps just go with whats been talked on celebrity forums and find out of their hints.  

Indeed, these options make it so challenging to choose a bet. Everyone wants to grow the money being put on, but in order to do so, you have to pick the movie that is most likely to be the winner. We cannot be all movie critic but we can do many efforts to acquire information to help coming up with a bet. I agree with @bittraffic, use the remaining time to join discussions, see the movies yourselves and even follow social polls to gather more info.

There are many options, in fact I am not a big fan of cinema, and I have been very little active in terms of movies, to be honest with me the movie that should win an Oscar for the best would be the new Marvel of Spiderman, it is a film that encompasses a lot, has good special effects, and I really see a lot of emotion in it, and I think that is what the directors should capture, the emotions, and it did not exceed the box office record of the previous Avengers, for being in a pandima, however, I would have far surpassed it.

[bbc.reporter]

I am not certain if the best adapted and original screenplay categories is a minor or a major category, however, after I watched The Licorice Pizza I knew it would be my bet for best screenplay. The odds confirmed it when the sportsbooks began listing it.

You liked Licorice Pizza so much? For me it's one of the weakest movies in the "Best Picture" category and a big disappointment, probably because I usually like Paul Thomas Anderson movies but this one simply didn't sit well with me. My personal favorite among "best original screenplay" (I think its an important category) movies is probably Don't Look Up, even though I think it won't win the award. Overall this year's best original screenplay category is kinda weak.

On Chadwick Boseman, we should also know in what political storyline the academy voters are in the mood for hehehe. The academy members might have wanted to forget the memory of black lives matter and voted for the actor with priest role hehehehe.

Hah yeah, he was favorite purely because of his death and all the "Black Lives Matter" stuff, but it was perfectly clear to everyone that Anthony Hopkins performance was superior. Then again, being the best actor of the year doesn't mean that you will get the Oscar and same thing goes for every other category.


Last night I watched another "Best Picture" nominee, Spielberg's West Side Story. Another big disappointment, no chemistry between main characters at all.  I have no idea how that ended up being nominated in that category, maybe because Steven Spielberg reputation. It's one of those movies that shouldn't have been made at all, since the original West Side Story from 1961 still works. After all, that movie won 10 Oscars back in the day.

I did not like Licorice Pizza so much, however, it quickly made me think of the best original screenplay category when I was watching it. I searched the odds and it confirmed the speculation.

Agreed on the new West Side Story. I thought it would create an impressive production design and costumes but it appears Dune created better hehe.

In any case, if someone asked me to bet from my heart, I want best picture to be Coda, Kenneth Branagh for best director, Ciarán Hinds for best supporting actor, Judi Dench for best supporting actress, Dune for best cinematography, Dune for best original score, Dune for best sound, Spiderman no way home for best visual effects, Coda or Drive my car for best adapted screenplay and Licorice Pizza for best original screenplay. I do not care for the other categories.

I also recommend everyone to watch Drive my car. It might be the underdog of 2022 hehehe.

[Theones]

I am not certain if the best adapted and original screenplay categories is a minor or a major category, however, after I watched The Licorice Pizza I knew it would be my bet for best screenplay. The odds confirmed it when the sportsbooks began listing it.

You liked Licorice Pizza so much? For me it's one of the weakest movies in the "Best Picture" category and a big disappointment, probably because I usually like Paul Thomas Anderson movies but this one simply didn't sit well with me. My personal favorite among "best original screenplay" (I think its an important category) movies is probably Don't Look Up, even though I think it won't win the award. Overall this year's best original screenplay category is kinda weak.

On Chadwick Boseman, we should also know in what political storyline the academy voters are in the mood for hehehe. The academy members might have wanted to forget the memory of black lives matter and voted for the actor with priest role hehehehe.

Hah yeah, he was favorite purely because of his death and all the "Black Lives Matter" stuff, but it was perfectly clear to everyone that Anthony Hopkins performance was superior. Then again, being the best actor of the year doesn't mean that you will get the Oscar and same thing goes for every other category.


Last night I watched another "Best Picture" nominee, Spielberg's West Side Story. Another big disappointment, no chemistry between main characters at all.  I have no idea how that ended up being nominated in that category, maybe because Steven Spielberg reputation. It's one of those movies that shouldn't have been made at all, since the original West Side Story from 1961 still works. After all, that movie won 10 Oscars back in the day.

I watched " the power of the dog" I couldn't digest the thought that it is in Oscar nomination. I could hardly watch half the movies and turned off the TV, thinking what made jury bring this movie to the Oscar nomination. I think they have all the things planned and they see their interest and decide what they want people to watch.

[sana54210]

I watched " the power of the dog" I couldn't digest the thought that it is in Oscar nomination. I could hardly watch half the movies and turned off the TV, thinking what made jury bring this movie to the Oscar nomination. I think they have all the things planned and they see their interest and decide what they want people to watch.

That is exactly who Oscars are given. Sure if you are at the top then there is a chance you could still win, like great movies do get nominations at the very least. By box office Avatar and Titanic are 1 and 3 so they got like 15 Oscars or so between them if I am not wrong, something like that.

Doesn't mean all the top ones do neither, Endgame was the top grossing and got zero. But if you check every single winner of Oscars best movie award, you will realize that most of the time they are boring movies. They pick boring movies, last year it was nomadland, like do you really think that it was the BEST movie of last year? Really? Nobody thinks that at all, hence Oscars are 100% DEFINITELY not the indicator of any movies quality.

[Cryptock]

From the rumors appearing on the Internet, "CODA" has the best chance of winning an Oscar this year, the next movie in line is "The Power of the Dog" and "Belfast", and only in fourth position "Duna". Maybe my film taste is strange, but in my opinion the Oscar should be awarded to "Duna" this year. I have no doubts that it was this movie that made the biggest impression on me.

[Johnyz]

From the rumors appearing on the Internet, "CODA" has the best chance of winning an Oscar this year, the next movie in line is "The Power of the Dog" and "Belfast", and only in fourth position "Duna". Maybe my film taste is strange, but in my opinion the Oscar should be awarded to "Duna" this year. I have no doubts that it was this movie that made the biggest impression on me.

You can see Dune on most of the category so they have a bigger chance to win an Oscar award, while CODA only nominated in two category, so they have a low chance of winning. I watched some of the movies nominated on this year Oscar and I can say that they are good but with Dune, I see this movie a long and interesting one, well based on my perception.

[Rikafip]

I did not like Licorice Pizza so much, however, it quickly made me think of the best original screenplay category when I was watching it. I searched the odds and it confirmed the speculation.

Hah really? I honestly didn't have that though about any of the movies I saw so far.

I also recommend everyone to watch Drive my car. It might be the underdog of 2022 hehehe.

I haven't seen that one yet as I have issues finding 3 hours of spare time to watch it one go, even though by the looks of it looks like something I might like.

I watched " the power of the dog" I couldn't digest the thought that it is in Oscar nomination. I could hardly watch half the movies and turned off the TV, thinking what made jury bring this movie to the Oscar nomination. I think they have all the things planned and they see their interest and decide what they want people to watch.

Slow burn drama movies like that are certainly not everyone's cup of tea so I can understand someone not liking it. You probably didn't like last year winners as well, Nomadland?

Doesn't mean all the top ones do neither, Endgame was the top grossing and got zero. But if you check every single winner of Oscars best movie award, you will realize that most of the time they are boring movies. They pick boring movies, last year it was nomadland, like do you really think that it was the BEST movie of last year? Really? Nobody thinks that at all, hence Oscars are 100% DEFINITELY not the indicator of any movies quality.

Just because some movie earns a lot of money doesn't mean its quality but only that is popular and Oscars isn't popularity contest. Of course, Academy has its agenda that they push, but its still better than giving Oscars based on popularity/box office results as that it would be much worse.

But if you check every single winner of Oscars best movie award, you will realize that most of the time they are boring movies. They pick boring movies, last year it was nomadland, like do you really think that it was the BEST movie of last year? Really? Nobody thinks that at all, hence Oscars are 100% DEFINITELY not the indicator of any movies quality.

Boring to you maybe, Nomadland was pretty good movie. You know what's boring for me? Mindless superhero movies like Avengers, Spidermans and all similar crap. I honestly  can' stand that shit.

[AmoreJaz]

From the rumors appearing on the Internet, "CODA" has the best chance of winning an Oscar this year, the next movie in line is "The Power of the Dog" and "Belfast", and only in fourth position "Duna". Maybe my film taste is strange, but in my opinion the Oscar should be awarded to "Duna" this year. I have no doubts that it was this movie that made the biggest impression on me.

You can see Dune on most of the category so they have a bigger chance to win an Oscar award, while CODA only nominated in two category, so they have a low chance of winning. I watched some of the movies nominated on this year Oscar and I can say that they are good but with Dune, I see this movie a long and interesting one, well based on my perception.

i can say Dune has been done good as i watched this movie also. the producers of this movie are not stingy to create a good film. so i won't be surprised if they will ever get an oscars' award. because for me, getting an oscars is just a bonus for any of this film. what they are most after is if they can generate good money out of this film and make a difference in the film industry, even outside this oscars.
because we can't deny the fact, that politicking may also be present in this kind of award.

[STT]

Dune could win the production oscars for professionalism but I think Belfast will have the better chance of best film, direction which are considered the bigger categories overall.   Im not sure we have one film which sweeps the board as sometimes happens, I see more fragmentation this time around.

[Rikafip]

i can say Dune has been done good as i watched this movie also. the producers of this movie are not stingy to create a good film

Dune's budget has been 165 million dollars which sound a lot at first, but in reality it's not even among top 100 most expensive movies of all time so kudos to Denis Villeneuve for making a movie that looks way more expensive than it was. So far Dune grossed approximately 400 million dollars which is a decent number. If there as no covid, I am sure that number would be at least 50% higher, but even this is enough to get a sequel which is already in production and should be released next year.

Dune could win the production oscars for professionalism but I think Belfast will have the better chance of best film, direction which are considered the bigger categories overall.   Im not sure we have one film which sweeps the board as sometimes happens, I see more fragmentation this time around.

There is no  "production oscars for professionalism". When it comes to producers, they get Best Picture Oscar.

[STT]

To refine what I meant, I was trying to say I think Dune is more of a technical win candidate then an overall winner on the acting or story side of the Oscars.  Sometimes they win both but this time I think we could see more of a split
These categories are perhaps not so well known in the audience as best Actor or others but obviously they count and mean the world to those in the industry especially.

Best visual effects
Best makeup & hairstyling
Best film editing
Best costume design

Dune's budget has been 165 million dollars which sound a lot at first, but in reality it's not even among top 100 most expensive movies

We have come a long way in budgets, I remember Titanic was gigantically expensive at 200m.    That was a while ago so money isnt what it once was, I guess 165 is medium now.   I always look at the ratio of the rough return they got, this doesn't exclude extra such as franchise rights for models/toys possibly etc. which can be massive.

[bbc.reporter]

I did not like Licorice Pizza so much, however, it quickly made me think of the best original screenplay category when I was watching it. I searched the odds and it confirmed the speculation.

Hah really? I honestly didn't have that though about any of the movies I saw so far.

I also recommend everyone to watch Drive my car. It might be the underdog of 2022 hehehe.

I haven't seen that one yet as I have issues finding 3 hours of spare time to watch it one go, even though by the looks of it looks like something I might like.

Yes, however, it was not because I thought The Licorice Pizza was a very good movie. It was because it gave an impression that the voters of the academy would like the screenplay of the movie. The movie was more an art film than a movie to please an audience, I reckon. Also, you will certainly like Drive my car but there was a few minutes in the movie where it might have lost the plot and found itself again in the ending.

[Rikafip]

To refine what I meant, I was trying to say I think Dune is more of a technical win candidate then an overall winner on the acting or story side of the Oscars.  Sometimes they win both but this time I think we could see more of a split

Yeah I don't expect Dune to win may Oscars (of any) outside tehnical ones. Unfortunately that's how it goes when it comes to sci-fi movies.

We have come a long way in budgets, I remember Titanic was gigantically expensive at 200m. 

Titanic was the most expensive movie for something like 10 years and it really stood out back in those days. It paid off though as it was the highest grossing movie until Avatar came.

 I always look at the ratio of the rough return they got, this doesn't exclude extra such as franchise rights for models/toys possibly etc. which can be massive.

Of course, there is a lot of money to be made from dvds, blurays, streaming rights, toys etc. One thing to keep in mind is that when we see that some movie grossed let's say $500 million, that doesn't mean that all that money goes to them as you have to deduct percentage that cinemas take and others in that chain so realistically what's left is maybe 50% of the box office, at best.

[mm2543363580]

To refine what I meant, I was trying to say I think Dune is more of a technical win candidate then an overall winner on the acting or story side of the Oscars.  Sometimes they win both but this time I think we could see more of a split

Yeah I don't expect Dune to win may Oscars (of any) outside tehnical ones. Unfortunately that's how it goes when it comes to sci-fi movies.

We have come a long way in budgets, I remember Titanic was gigantically expensive at 200m. 

Titanic was the most expensive movie for something like 10 years and it really stood out back in those days. It paid off though as it was the highest grossing movie until Avatar came.

 I always look at the ratio of the rough return they got, this doesn't exclude extra such as franchise rights for models/toys possibly etc. which can be massive.

Of course, there is a lot of money to be made from dvds, blurays, streaming rights, toys etc. One thing to keep in mind is that when we see that some movie grossed let's say $500 million, that doesn't mean that all that money goes to them as you have to deduct percentage that cinemas take and others in that chain so realistically what's left is maybe 50% of the box office, at best.

There are many cost which we are not aware of.
Also I watched Dune as well - I have never watched a movies that made me want to read the novel as well. Dune was no doubt one of  the most exhilarating and fresh movies I've ever watched. It felt like an experience that a movie should give. Even without reading the books was I able to quickly catch on to what was happening throughout the film. PHENOMENAL MOVIE! Definitely recommend

[Theones]

To refine what I meant, I was trying to say I think Dune is more of a technical win candidate then an overall winner on the acting or story side of the Oscars.  Sometimes they win both but this time I think we could see more of a split

Yeah I don't expect Dune to win may Oscars (of any) outside tehnical ones. Unfortunately that's how it goes when it comes to sci-fi movies.

We have come a long way in budgets, I remember Titanic was gigantically expensive at 200m. 

Titanic was the most expensive movie for something like 10 years and it really stood out back in those days. It paid off though as it was the highest grossing movie until Avatar came.

 I always look at the ratio of the rough return they got, this doesn't exclude extra such as franchise rights for models/toys possibly etc. which can be massive.

Of course, there is a lot of money to be made from dvds, blurays, streaming rights, toys etc. One thing to keep in mind is that when we see that some movie grossed let's say $500 million, that doesn't mean that all that money goes to them as you have to deduct percentage that cinemas take and others in that chain so realistically what's left is maybe 50% of the box office, at best.

There are many cost which we are not aware of.
Also I watched Dune as well - I have never watched a movies that made me want to read the novel as well. Dune was no doubt one of  the most exhilarating and fresh movies I've ever watched. It felt like an experience that a movie should give. Even without reading the books was I able to quickly catch on to what was happening throughout the film. PHENOMENAL MOVIE! Definitely recommend

I was  going through a very  difficult time in my life ... but after watching  the  trailer I instantly fell in love with everything about Dune's universe. So I decided to read the book and for the first time in my life I decided to go to the theater alone to watch this movie (It may seem simple, but it's something very difficult for me bcs I feel alone with no one by my side.) I'm sure it will be one of the few moments where I could be happy with myself and be able to feel a little bit of joy alone.

[STT]

Some movies it doesnt matter where you sit or with whom, you are within the movie because its that good.   I should check it again if people are that impressed, it is a great story no doubt but its not new to me, the whole epic was famous a few times and they even have a very famous computer game based on it that founded a whole genre.    Being a remake though a good one might also count against vs a new movie/story/script etc.

[mm2543363580]

To refine what I meant, I was trying to say I think Dune is more of a technical win candidate then an overall winner on the acting or story side of the Oscars.  Sometimes they win both but this time I think we could see more of a split

Yeah I don't expect Dune to win may Oscars (of any) outside tehnical ones. Unfortunately that's how it goes when it comes to sci-fi movies.

We have come a long way in budgets, I remember Titanic was gigantically expensive at 200m. 

Titanic was the most expensive movie for something like 10 years and it really stood out back in those days. It paid off though as it was the highest grossing movie until Avatar came.

 I always look at the ratio of the rough return they got, this doesn't exclude extra such as franchise rights for models/toys possibly etc. which can be massive.

Of course, there is a lot of money to be made from dvds, blurays, streaming rights, toys etc. One thing to keep in mind is that when we see that some movie grossed let's say $500 million, that doesn't mean that all that money goes to them as you have to deduct percentage that cinemas take and others in that chain so realistically what's left is maybe 50% of the box office, at best.

There are many cost which we are not aware of.
Also I watched Dune as well - I have never watched a movies that made me want to read the novel as well. Dune was no doubt one of  the most exhilarating and fresh movies I've ever watched. It felt like an experience that a movie should give. Even without reading the books was I able to quickly catch on to what was happening throughout the film. PHENOMENAL MOVIE! Definitely recommend

I was  going through a very  difficult time in my life ... but after watching  the  trailer I instantly fell in love with everything about Dune's universe. So I decided to read the book and for the first time in my life I decided to go to the theater alone to watch this movie (It may seem simple, but it's something very difficult for me bcs I feel alone with no one by my side.) I'm sure it will be one of the few moments where I could be happy with myself and be able to feel a little bit of joy alone.

After watching Dune - I have so many feelings, but the thing that stands front and center is This is everything we want in movies. it's thrilling, It's passionate, it's emotional, it's fantastical, it's intense, it's fast-paced, and heart-stopping and creative and just DOWN RIGHT ADDICTING. I watched this movie twice already in two consecutive days. I don't care how long it is, BUT I WANT MORE OF IT!  It held me captive, stole my heart, and I have the BIGGEST DUNE hangover ever. The worldbuilding was so freaking good, it was freaking magical!