Is Putin Threatening or Serious

[Zlantann]

With the current intelligence report that Russia is considering surrounding and invading Kyiv at any time, bomb shelters that were built during the Cold War by Russia are being reopened and refurbished. Although Kremlin has denied it, calling it a US anti-Russian Propaganda.

Many countries ( Netherland, Germany, Jordan, US, Slovakia) including Russia are directly or indirectly calling on their nationals to leave Ukraine. Even the UK government had advised its nationals to leave Ukraine by any possible means and should not expect a military evacuation.

US President has warned Russia that an invasion of Ukraine will lead to decisive and severe cost. But, Russia has accused Washington and Brussels of ignoring Russia key demands which the West has seen as non- starters.

Russia military exercises are taking place in various strategic places. Ukrainian security agents are holding drills to make them prepared and effective in case of an invasion. Millions of Ukrainians are living in fear of the unknown.

Do you think Putin is serious or threatening Ukraine with war?

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[theymos]

I'm like 70/30 on the side that Putin will not do a major invasion. The costs are just too high for Russia. He'll probably do something, but it'll probably be something that won't be clear enough to unify all NATO members. Something like sending only medical units into the Donbas to provide humanitarian aid. I think that this whole thing is most likely to be more of a mind game against NATO than anything.

But I'm far from certain of that. I could also see Putin wanting to really cement his place in Russian history before he dies by trying to achieve a conquest the likes of which the world hasn't seen in a long time. In my very-inexpert opinion, a likely path here would be a false flag attack which makes it look like Ukraine is attacking Belarus, which can then be used as an excuse to engage in a decapitation strike against Kyiv in order to protect Russia's ally.

My heart goes out to all of the innocent people put in danger for the sake of this stupid geopolitical game.

[ibminer]

In my very-inexpert opinion, a likely path here would be a false flag attack which makes it look like Ukraine is attacking Belarus, which can then be used as an excuse to engage in a decapitation strike against Kyiv in order to protect Russia's ally.

But there's no evidence for it!
https://youtu.be/d4PbCiHOtR8

I'm more of a 60/40 that he won't do anything major, my doubt comes mainly from the age & achieving a conquest stuff.. but a heavy-handed assault would definitely be a bad move for Russia, so I'm hopeful for a more peaceful resolution, just not sure about the mental stability of Putin and what he might see as the smart move. No matter what level the aggression, if any, another country would likely be blamed.. I'm not sure who though.

[cabron]

I don't think Putin does have a plan to invade because he had been saying clearly in the media that he has no plans. That would mean he lied to his men if he really does.
If you listen to both sides of the media like how we read the scam accusation in the forum, you will see how different the media are saying from Germany, France, Russia, and the US.

We have been hearing through US media Ukraine invasion will happen any moment for weeks but none has lifted a finger. That's because Russian troops are more than a hundred miles away from thier borders and conducting a military exercise with Belarus troops planning to protect thier borders from NATO expansion.

[tvbcof]

Putin seems to be one of the WEF's 'Global Leaders for Tomorrow' people along with the likes of Merkel, Gates, Orban, Sarkozy, Blair, etc.  The school did a re-brand in 2004-ish as Young Global Leaders where you start to see Trudeau(Castro), Arden, Zuckerberg, Gabbard, Crenshaw, etc.

WEF seems to have, as a strong enough item of importance to crow about in their media, the notion of 'toppling' of the U.S..  A major war which the U.S. lost decisively would probably do the trick (although I would argue that it wouldn't even take that and/or that it's already been accomplished in a quiet way which left a facade; a significant military capability under direction of a globalist super-state.)

Putin seems to also be somewhat under control of the Kabbalahistic Sabbatean branch of Judaism who were instrumental in inserting Trump for his little gig.  The relationship between this group and the WEF crowd is not yet very clear to me.  My best guess is that the Sabbateans are the money people and they provide that (necessary) service to the WEF because they plan to ultimately appropriate what the WEF has built.

[Gyfts]

He is serious, this isn't a bluff. Putin didn't get much resistance from the international community when Crimea was annexed. Merely some harsh words. He has the green light from the west, and oil control of plenty European countries.

As harsh as it may sound, no one in the international community cares enough about Ukraine to help defend them. I put the chance at invasion at more than likely. At first it seemed as if Putin was putting pressure on Ukraine to make concessions and ease off of joining NATO -- who knows, maybe they might be able to resolve things diplomatically, but don't count on Ukraine caving in to demands.

[D-law]

I see they've been taking military drills at Belerus in preparation for this, thinking about this alone hurts me badly.
I hope this are not taken seriously as it seems because will result to something else, what has the United States done about this ?
I see why Russian government wants to start the war, with the current state of inflation in the world, they have invested in Bitcoin to get enough finance for this, that's not even the case they should let go of old myths and move on!
The world deserves peace ✌️

[tvbcof]

He is serious, this isn't a bluff. Putin didn't get much resistance from the international community when Crimea was annexed. Merely some harsh words. He has the green light from the west, and oil control of plenty European countries.
...

Probably the biggest reason why not too much Western effort was put into Crimea was 'and then what'.  The population was overwhelmingly pro-Russian so it would have been a bitch and very ugly to do much with it.  While the sentiment of the Crimeans was heavily shaped by population shifts and ethnic cleansing operations under the Soviets, it's kind of an 'is what it is' scenario.

It's important to note that there is not one unified Ukraine with 'pure-blood Ukrainians' up to the border.  Operations such as the Holodomor whittled down the 'native' population and forced immigration filled in in some areas enough to where they can and are maintaining autonomous control of large swaths of the country.  And if they didn't, they would probably be subject to fairly extreme atrocities by the western-backed 'Ukrainians'.

Since the Soviet population engineering (a common characteristic of Communist rule) happened generations ago, there are plenty of people who are mixed culturally, genetically, and philosophically.  Most people on both sides fear what would happen to them personally if the other side got the upper hand, and rightly so I suspect.

Interestingly, some of the Russian-speaking Ukrainians I know have a pretty strong negative feeling about the Soviet Union, and it certainly has spilled over to Russia more generally.  They seem to not trust or like anyone, and that even applies to they who are 'Jews' and their feelings toward Israel in some cases.  I think that that is exactly the correct mindset to have.  For anyone.  Few if any 'leaderships' see any population as anything more than a tool.

---

I would council anyone who thinks that the WEF's 'great reset' plan sounds like the way to go to be prepared for the basic Soviet tactics to be employed until there are only about 1-in-10 people left.  That will be 'sustainable'.  People who think they can be in that 10% have at least a logical (if very evil) reason to support them.  People who have not made that calculation are simply grist for the mill.

[yazher]

I see they've been taking military drills at Belerus in preparation for this, thinking about this alone hurts me badly.
I hope this are not taken seriously as it seems because will result to something else, what has the United States done about this ?
I see why Russian government wants to start the war, with the current state of inflation in the world, they have invested in Bitcoin to get enough finance for this, that's not even the case they should let go of old myths and move on!
The world deserves peace ✌️

If only those people who love peace will decide what's gonna happen in this conflict, there would be no casualties and they will choose to resolve this one as soon as possible to avoid any more damage. But they always choose to take advantage of what is about to happen because they will get some huge benefits from it if the war will broke out between these two countries and we know who will get benefit from this.

[cabron]

I see they've been taking military drills at Belerus in preparation for this, thinking about this alone hurts me badly.
I hope this are not taken seriously as it seems because will result to something else, what has the United States done about this ?
I see why Russian government wants to start the war, with the current state of inflation in the world, they have invested in Bitcoin to get enough finance for this, that's not even the case they should let go of old myths and move on!
The world deserves peace ✌️

If only those people who love peace will decide what's gonna happen in this conflict, there would be no casualties and they will choose to resolve this one as soon as possible to avoid any more damage. But they always choose to take advantage of what is about to happen because they will get some huge benefits from it if the war will broke out between these two countries and we know who will get benefit from this.

War will support the US economy for sure. That's a business.

Zelensky assured the people there will be no war actually but there is a doubt in his mind which he wants Putin to also reassure will not go forward. This could be because Putin had supported the independence of the Donbas region which is ruled by the rebels.  This entire misinformation relies mostly on Zelensky, so this guy is playing fire as to which of the two will give Ukraine a good promise.

Russia wants Ukraine not to join NATO and although US has nothing to do with the conflict for the region that causes this conflict, Ukraine brings the notion to join NATO. It's all up to Zelensky, he could either burn his nation or not.

[merchantofzeny]

I think he'll attempt to do something but not immediately go for Kiev. I'm thinking a repeat of Crimea. Grab a piece of land, watch the "international community" rant about it while doing nothing. Rinse. Repeat. I think a prime target is that area that's supplying Crimea with water. Ukraine has cut off the supply. Maybe Russia can move into the side nearer Crimea and then just extend across the river at a later time.

[ChiBitCTy]

I see they've been taking military drills at Belerus in preparation for this, thinking about this alone hurts me badly.
I hope this are not taken seriously as it seems because will result to something else, what has the United States done about this ?
I see why Russian government wants to start the war, with the current state of inflation in the world, they have invested in Bitcoin to get enough finance for this, that's not even the case they should let go of old myths and move on!
The world deserves peace ✌️

If only those people who love peace will decide what's gonna happen in this conflict, there would be no casualties and they will choose to resolve this one as soon as possible to avoid any more damage. But they always choose to take advantage of what is about to happen because they will get some huge benefits from it if the war will broke out between these two countries and we know who will get benefit from this.

War will support the US economy for sure. That's a business.

Zelensky assured the people there will be no war actually but there is a doubt in his mind which he wants Putin to also reassure will not go forward. This could be because Putin had supported the independence of the Donbas region which is ruled by the rebels.  This entire misinformation relies mostly on Zelensky, so this guy is playing fire as to which of the two will give Ukraine a good promise.

Russia wants Ukraine not to join NATO and although US has nothing to do with the conflict for the region that causes this conflict, Ukraine brings the notion to join NATO. It's all up to Zelensky, he could either burn his nation or not.

War absolutely will not support the US economy. It will only increase supply chain issues, increase inflation, sink stock markets, and be a massive expense. What we sell in military equipment will not offset those other costs.

Russia is in a lose lose situation if they invade. Their military is not remotely comparable to Nato and sanctions would be sever. Putin is a mad dictator but he’s also no fool, and as an elite trained soldier who knows when he’s out gunned,

[Quickseller]

I'm like 70/30 on the side that Putin will not do a major invasion. The costs are just too high for Russia. He'll probably do something, but it'll probably be something that won't be clear enough to unify all NATO members. Something like sending only medical units into the Donbas to provide humanitarian aid. I think that this whole thing is most likely to be more of a mind game against NATO than anything.

It really depends on how much resistance that Putin thinks Ukraine will put up in an invasion. If Putin believes that Ukraine will act similarly to the Afghanistan military last summer, he is likely to invade, especially if he believes that Germany will not abandon the Nordstream 2 pipeline. If however he believes that Ukraine will put up a decent fight, he may not want to risk heavy losses and the potential for a domestic uprising in response to said losses.

Another factor is likely to be what he perceives to be Biden's resolve to actually take any military action if Ukraine is invaded. Just last year, Biden intentionally lost a war that all we needed to do in order to win was commit a nominal amount of troops and resources. Biden is also historically weak.

Before making the decision to invade, Putin is likely to try to get major concessions from NATO that would weaken NATO.

Putin wants to see Russia reunited with former USSR countries, and Ukraine is the first step in achieving that.

[cabron]

I see they've been taking military drills at Belerus in preparation for this, thinking about this alone hurts me badly.
I hope this are not taken seriously as it seems because will result to something else, what has the United States done about this ?
I see why Russian government wants to start the war, with the current state of inflation in the world, they have invested in Bitcoin to get enough finance for this, that's not even the case they should let go of old myths and move on!
The world deserves peace ✌️

If only those people who love peace will decide what's gonna happen in this conflict, there would be no casualties and they will choose to resolve this one as soon as possible to avoid any more damage. But they always choose to take advantage of what is about to happen because they will get some huge benefits from it if the war will broke out between these two countries and we know who will get benefit from this.

War will support the US economy for sure. That's a business.

Zelensky assured the people there will be no war actually but there is a doubt in his mind which he wants Putin to also reassure will not go forward. This could be because Putin had supported the independence of the Donbas region which is ruled by the rebels.  This entire misinformation relies mostly on Zelensky, so this guy is playing fire as to which of the two will give Ukraine a good promise.

Russia wants Ukraine not to join NATO and although US has nothing to do with the conflict for the region that causes this conflict, Ukraine brings the notion to join NATO. It's all up to Zelensky, he could either burn his nation or not.

War absolutely will not support the US economy. It will only increase supply chain issues, increase inflation, sink stock markets, and be a massive expense. What we sell in military equipment will not offset those other costs.

Russia is in a lose lose situation if they invade. Their military is not remotely comparable to Nato and sanctions would be sever. Putin is a mad dictator but he’s also no fool, and as an elite trained soldier who knows when he’s out gunned,

Putin has better judgment in his situation of course he knows war is a lose-lose situation for all. The leaders know it's not the US troops that will combat against Russia. But sure the US will want to provide lots of weapons and ammo for Ukraine and other countries who would want to join. But the fact that the surrounding countries are also scared of Russia and Belarus military, it's going to be just a stalemate situation.

Believe it or not, a leader of a country, wouldn't be a leader if they are a mad man. But only those who want war at all cost which we know Putin doesn't want war. China didn't want war either over Taiwan. But their goal COULD BE to subdue thier enemy without war.

[yhiaali3]

In my opinion, Putin is much smarter than that. He will not risk Russia's entry into a war of unknown results. Nor will he bring NATO to its borders under the pretext of protecting Ukraine. He also will not make Russia appear to the world as an enemy occupying the land of its neighbors. Putin is an expert intelligence man who certainly knows that the negative consequences of an invasion Ukraine's military is much greater than the possible positive outcomes, so I think he plays this dangerous game very carefully in order to get the political gains he wants from the United States and NATO, this game is just a game of political intelligence and I don't expect there to be a real military attack.

[D-law]

Have been contemplating their main aim when they accepted Bitcoin.
Could be that they don't have enough funds for the war, that's why they have accepted Bitcoin.
The US president Joe Biden should show his support alongside other European leaders to show their various support for Ukraine.
This is the best chance to stand for them, in the time of dispute and trials.

[OgNasty]

I don't see what he has to gain from bluffing just to threaten Ukraine.  It seems obvious that he is not only serious, but doesn't care much what other countries think about it.  His latest talks about how NATO is going to be pulled into a war make it seem like he's willing to deal with whatever financial fallout comes from doing what he feels is needed to secure his nation.  Given that by threatening he only strengthens the opposition's position, I don't think he would do this unless he was not only serious, but action was imminent.  I don't think we'll be seeing World War III from this, but I do think an invasion and the loss of life is going to happen.  Hopefully it is quick and done with as little harm to civilians as possible.  I think that's the best we can hope for at this point.

[af_newbie]

He will go in, seize most of Eastern Ukraine, establish permanent military bases, and then he will 'negotiate'.

He wants land access to Crimea and Moldova.  

He knows that the western countries will not go to war as they have already signaled that by removing their diplomatic staff,
instead of sending 100-200K NATO army to Eastern Ukraine.

So he effectively got a green light from the likes of Biden.

The whole world will complain, but then they will say: "Ok, Putin, we gave you Ukraine, but that is it", lol.

We all know how "XXX and that is it" ended in 1938.  Same shit, different actors.

Americans think that imposing economic sanctions on Russia will make Putin less popular.

They don't understand the Russian psyche. Sanctions will have the opposite effect.  Hardliners will gain popularity.

Russians are very resilient and economic sanctions will push them further away from the West and democratic principles.

The only thing that would work to stop Putin is large NATO deployment to the Russian border. 

Everything else is just pissing in the wind.

[NellyBrownne]

News gotten from BBC news states that, Russia are withdrawing back them troops from Ukraine borders.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1493510906667544580?t=owR4IPyxQL5aDPHATVhm_w&s=19

Should we trust Vlad Putin ?

[Sayeds56]

News gotten from BBC news states that, Russia are withdrawing back them troops from Ukraine borders.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1493510906667544580?t=owR4IPyxQL5aDPHATVhm_w&s=19

Should we trust Vlad Putin ?

I was quite sure from the very beginning  that this conflict will end peacefully without firing a single bullet because war between two major world powers is out of question in the context of Nuclear weapons both of them are carrying. I am not in favor of Nuclear weapons but lesson of history after WW2 is that  Nuclear deterrent has successfully prevented major war between the big world powers.  

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/europe/top-stories/russia-says-it-s-begun-partial-troop-pullback-from-ukraine-border-nato-urges-caution/ar-AATSqpA?ocid=msedgntp