Is Putin Threatening or Serious

[Mometaskers]

IMHO there's a good chance Russia will do something, we're just not sure how large the operation would be. Maybe they'll just slowly nibble at Ukraine's toes. Get some good spots, just small enough to not get a severe response from NATO. Then cool-down a bit before the next operation. I believe Crimea would be the last "large" operation. Capturing it has already given Russia a good strategic advantage. It can actually stop now if it wants to.

But I'm far from certain of that. I could also see Putin wanting to really cement his place in Russian history before he dies by trying to achieve a conquest the likes of which the world hasn't seen in a long time. In my very-inexpert opinion, a likely path here would be a false flag attack which makes it look like Ukraine is attacking Belarus, which can then be used as an excuse to engage in a decapitation strike against Kyiv in order to protect Russia's ally.

Haven't kept up with the news but is the Ukaraine-Belarus relationship also strained? All I hear of Belarus in the news is that it's president (more like dictator) is flooding the EU with "immigrants" through Poland's border. Maybe if Russia instigate a false flag attack to start a war between Belarus and Ukraine, it'll keep it as a proxy war? Russia heading right towards Kiev is an invitation for NATO to also step in militarily.

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[cabron]

^ I doubt Russia would do something, they are just on the boarders because of the threat created by the media.  

But if Ukraine vs Belarus starts, it will be a regime change to Belarus. Ukraine regime change already happened in 2014 which made Putin very cautious to this contested region.

This media commotions is serves Ukraine a bargaining chip for EU countries follow orders from whitehouse. Germany couldn't exercise their sovereignhty and will just cry sulking when whitehouse says Nordstream should be shutdown. Making EU still dependent to US gas.

[Eltharion]

They are just playing games. Putin is many things, but obviously not an idiot.

[ibminer]

I'm more of a 60/40 that he won't do anything major, my doubt comes mainly from the age & achieving a conquest stuff.. but a heavy-handed assault would definitely be a bad move for Russia, so I'm hopeful for a more peaceful resolution, just not sure about the mental stability of Putin and what he might see as the smart move. No matter what level the aggression, if any, another country would likely be blamed.. I'm not sure who though.

Ya, I take it back.. Putin crazy. I'm now at like 40/60 he won't do anything major.. I'd anticipate a swift attack from UK, led by Boris himself. Nip it in the bud! 

   .. seriously, I think things are gonna get crazy. 

[coolcoinz]

I also thought he wouldn't dare to attack, but what he's doing is and isn't an attack at the same time. He doesn't want it to be an invasion, he wants it to be a game.
1. Puts soldiers on the borderline
2. Distracts the West by sending fake migrants to Belarus so they'd attack the border with Poland and attract the media
3. Starts peace talks with the West claiming he just wants to liberate people who want to be a part of Russia
4. Breaks the peace talks saying that for him to discuss anything Ukraine would have to return all US made weapons (impossible to do and he knows it)
5. Makes a provocation by detonating some artillery shells in Donetsk
6. Evacuates people from attacked area claiming there's a place for them in Russia, then abandons them. The evacuated citizens are forced to go back to Ukraine or face cold and starvation.
7. Signs a decree that Donetsk and Luhansk are now autonomies recognized by Russia
8. Moves in "peacekeeping forces" to the area claiming he only wants to stabilize the territory so no other fights take place
9. Claims Rissia doesn't want to annex the area (but if an autonomous region decides it wants to be a part of Russia he won't oppose)


Remember people, next time the Red Army Russian Army moves into your country, it's to keep the peace and help you. Pretty much like they helped Poland and Finland in 1939

[Ultegra134]

Not exactly sure, Putin isn't the most sane man on earth either. I'm pretty sure we'll have another Crimea situation (2014), after the latest news, I'm becoming more and more confident that he will invade, occupying territories (such as Donetsk and Luhansk, which he supposedly recognized as independent territories).

We're definitely walking on a thin line, one wrong move, and we're certainly going to witness another war.

[mindrust]

Remember people, next time the Red Army Russian Army moves into your country, it's to keep the peace and help you. Pretty much like they helped Poland and Finland in 1939

Sounds a lot like how the US brought so much democracy to the Middle East. They brought so much of it, democracy is now coming out of Iraq and Libya's nostrils.

They wanted to bring their awesomeness to Syria too but somehow Assad managed to escape it.

Anyway, if the US is still a super power, now here is their chance to show the world.

[ibminer]

And it has begun.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/russia-attacks-ukraine-news-vladimir-putin-zelenskiy-russian-invasion

Ukraine is now under martial law.

[Gyfts]

And it has begun.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/russia-attacks-ukraine-news-vladimir-putin-zelenskiy-russian-invasion

Ukraine is now under martial law.

Didn't expect a full scale invasion with military action. Thought Donetsk and Luhansk were easy targets, little to no resistance by Ukraine and perhaps Putin would stop at that. Apparently not.  Zelensky put out a message stating the Ukrainian military would be on defense, but there is no point - Russia's military is too strong. Putin is unhinged.

[ibminer]

I couldn't foresee the possibility of a full scale invasion up until Putin's recent hour long speech a day or so ago, no clue why NATO or someone didn't start doing something more then, seems like Russia & Belarus are coming right in.. but it's cool, Biden & NATO are gonna get some of their peeps on those sanctions any day now, while Ukrainians fight off the Russian military.

[tvbcof]

Article name says it all.  Source to show-page with links and vid hosting platform options:

  You Are Being Played With The Ukraine Narrative
  https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/you-are-being-played-with-ukraine-narrative/

[rhomelmabini]

Putin gone crazy! It's either UN will give up Ukraine or a full scale war to stop Russia. Sad to watch the news and development of event in Ukraine. Market is crashing and lots of innocent life is at stake here

Forget the market by now it can recover in a matter of time, the lives of those innocent civilians matters the most. I do hope this wouldn't be a full blown one, looks like it's getting serious but at the end we all just want peace.

[D-law]

Fvcknn Putin, imagine the innocent like at this, please pray for them if you can. In whatever you can support to put an end to this invasion please do, the world deserves peace.
I see Putin and Russians have been hungry for world power, Russian isn't more of the target here but the United States.

I don't see the United States throwing in agression already,I think it's too early, this is not what I expected.
Hopefully everything gets better.

[NoorulHuda]

According to the news and his situation and what is doing is front of us.
I think he is little bit seriouse. There for he is attacking.
By the way they are talking. Let see what will happen?

[Eltharion]

Based on mobilising 75% of Russia's army on Ukraine and all the military actions, he is getting pretty seriously mad.

[Danydee]

 Now that we face the fact, after the attacks. and hearing the Russian version (Putin's speech) of this crisis,
 I thought there must be a lot of Ukrainian users here on the forum, so I think it must be very interesting and important to hear their own opinions, about the crisis, the invasion, the Russian allegations on the Ukrainian government...

 I am aware and respect if they may have some reserves lest their words may be taken and misdirected.. but their opinion is now the best input that can come and is the key to having a good understanding of what is happening !

[Quickseller]

I'm like 70/30 on the side that Putin will not do a major invasion. The costs are just too high for Russia. He'll probably do something, but it'll probably be something that won't be clear enough to unify all NATO members. Something like sending only medical units into the Donbas to provide humanitarian aid. I think that this whole thing is most likely to be more of a mind game against NATO than anything.

It really depends on how much resistance that Putin thinks Ukraine will put up in an invasion. If Putin believes that Ukraine will act similarly to the Afghanistan military last summer, he is likely to invade, especially if he believes that Germany will not abandon the Nordstream 2 pipeline. If however he believes that Ukraine will put up a decent fight, he may not want to risk heavy losses and the potential for a domestic uprising in response to said losses.

Another factor is likely to be what he perceives to be Biden's resolve to actually take any military action if Ukraine is invaded. Just last year, Biden intentionally lost a war that all we needed to do in order to win was commit a nominal amount of troops and resources. Biden is also historically weak.

Before making the decision to invade, Putin is likely to try to get major concessions from NATO that would weaken NATO.

Putin wants to see Russia reunited with former USSR countries, and Ukraine is the first step in achieving that.

It seems that I was right. Putin ended up invading, while expecting to only need 3 days worth of supplies for his troops. He expected Kiev to fall within 1-2 days, and be greeted with open arms as a liberator. Obviously none of that ended up being the case, and now Putin is at risk of facing defeat.

[theymos]

It seems that I was right. Putin ended up invading, while expecting to only need 3 days worth of supplies for his troops. He expected Kiev to fall within 1-2 days, and be greeted with open arms as a liberator. Obviously none of that ended up being the case, and now Putin is at risk of facing defeat.

Yeah, it seems that Putin severely miscalculated. Everything has gone so poorly for Russia that I have to wonder if Putin is going senile or otherwise having real mental issues. If he actually thought that Ukrainians would welcome him with open arms, then he was really out of touch.

I was completely wrong about this whole thing:
 - I thought that US intelligence was making a big fuss about ~nothing because they've wrongly cried wolf many times in the past, but this time they were right.
 - I thought that Putin wouldn't invade and would be more likely to be playing mind games because he has a history of doing smart things and messing with the West, but I was shocked (even more shocked than I thought I'd be) when he actually went for a Kyiv decapitation strike.
 - Because Russia so obviously outmatches Ukraine and there's really no excuse for them failing, I thought they'd take Kyiv within 24 hours if they decided to do so.
 - The West has a history of putting short-term profit before ideals, so I thought they'd do the minimum reaction they could get away with without looking completely weak, but they actually did some pretty severe sanctions, and they've been investing substantially in defending Ukraine. I was especially surprised by the central bank sanctions and the anti-Russian actions by Turkey and Hungary.

I still think that there's no way Zelenskyy can stay in power for long if Russia stays committed to getting rid of him by any means, but my record is terrible, so who knows.

[Artemis3]

I'm like 70/30 on the side that Putin will not do a major invasion. The costs are just too high for Russia. He'll probably do something, but it'll probably be something that won't be clear enough to unify all NATO members. Something like sending only medical units into the Donbas to provide humanitarian aid. I think that this whole thing is most likely to be more of a mind game against NATO than anything.

But I'm far from certain of that. I could also see Putin wanting to really cement his place in Russian history before he dies by trying to achieve a conquest the likes of which the world hasn't seen in a long time. In my very-inexpert opinion, a likely path here would be a false flag attack which makes it look like Ukraine is attacking Belarus, which can then be used as an excuse to engage in a decapitation strike against Kyiv in order to protect Russia's ally.

My heart goes out to all of the innocent people put in danger for the sake of this stupid geopolitical game.

Say theymos, I have the feeling that you underestimated Vladimir Putin...
And interestingly, not only did he unite NATO, its even bringing traditionally neutral countries like the Swiss!
There is a world outrage going on... In some cases, the people are pushing their politicians to act.

Bitcoin is being used for Ukraine, while Putin wanted to ban it in Russia and force miners to sell it all to their central bank. Now the ruble is going the way fiat money always goes.

I guess you were correct in that "conquest before he goes" thing... But look what he has done now. Belarus is actually shooting medium range missiles against Ukraine, and the armed forces are trying to encircle Kyiv. Meanwhile, Putin removed his Chief of the General Staff, was he angry from the current situation? Did they underestimate the Ukranian resistance and thought they would be walking in a park or something?

Unfortunately like you predicted, there is a lot of blood (and fire), even Russian soldiers who were told they were doing a military exercise... Conquest indeed.

[KingScorpio]

ukranian regime must be put to justice they tortured parts of their population for years and decades. the joke of all this is that the western elite is delegitimising themselves by siding with zelinski