Last time $3 was "the manipulator"... what now?

[evoorhees]

A week or two ago when Bitcoin went up to the $3 mark, many here said it was "artificially caused" by the massive "fake" bid wall of "the manipulator." Well, that bid wall wasn't fake - it was filled.

But here we are at $3 again... so what's the excuse this time?

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[pirateat40]

Sheer market destruction, to $1 we go.  RUN for your life!

who knows

[teflone]

This is the most genuine a climb as I've seen...

[Dan The Man]

A week or two ago when Bitcoin went up to the $3 mark, many here said it was "artificially caused" by the massive "fake" bid wall of "the manipulator." Well, that bid wall wasn't fake - it was filled.

But here we are at $3 again... so what's the excuse this time?

The manipulator ate up all of the "real" sells when the "artifical" bidwall got sold through. This "artificially" depleted the appetite for selling allowing the new buyers to move there bids up because of the lull in sells caused by the manipulator's 45k bidwall getting eaten.

Another way to put it is that there was over 100k USD dangling just outside the bitcoin economy. Someone reached out and pulled that money in, so now the market is worth 100k more.

[trogdorjw73]

The calm before the storm hits next weekend... perhaps the weekend after that. I'm inclined to think that those holding and waiting for the price to increase are going to do their monthly cash out a little earlier than in November, just in time for the holiday break.

[evoorhees]

The calm before the storm hits next weekend... perhaps the weekend after that. I'm inclined to think that those holding and waiting for the price to increase are going to do their monthly cash out a little earlier than in November, just in time for the holiday break.

Yikes there's going to be a storm!? This coming weekend or next? What price will it go to?

[SaintFlow]

All the dollars of the big buywall are bitcoins now - or in other words someone must hold or accept tough losses!

About the next movements I am as puzzeled as the next guy. I currently hold only very limited coins and wouldn't
be too surprised if we see a little drop back to 2.85. At then I will buy again.

yes I agree the last climbs seemed really really genuine.

If there still is a manipulator out there he is either in sleep mode or has learned to not have obvious steep walls.

@Dan the man:  I like this explanation

Basic question is the economic situation of the bitcoin users: Do they have enough cash to hold their bitcoins or must they eat it?
Or do they believe to know better investments and it is only about money then share your thoughts 

[evoorhees]

All the dollars of the big buywall are bitcoins now - or in other words someone must hold or accept tough losses!

This isn't quite true... the dollars and bitcoins existed prior, they just switched hands. Group A had dollars, Group B had bitcoins, and now the groups are different, but the same money exists.

[SaintFlow]

Yes the money has changed hands and it per se not destroyed or anything like it.

What I think is that the big buywall of 65k that changed hands could not be reconverted to same value at current marketdepth
without realizing a loss.

[trogdorjw73]

The calm before the storm hits next weekend... perhaps the weekend after that. I'm inclined to think that those holding and waiting for the price to increase are going to do their monthly cash out a little earlier than in November, just in time for the holiday break.

Yikes there's going to be a storm!? This coming weekend or next? What price will it go to?

It just looks like there's a big sell off around the middle of the month on a pretty regular basis. People are suggesting that the manipulator had all his fake ask walls bought up, but I'm not so sure. I'd say it's entirely possible that *a* manipulator (e.g. there's more than one) bought a bunch of BTC from some other manipulator, at around... what was it, $2.80, give or take? So if price climbs up to $3.15 with a sufficiently large number of buyers, they could cash out and make a nice little 10% profit off their move. Even more likely is that there was a lot of BTC purchased below $2.40 last month, so for those who purchased they could make close to a 50% increase.

Note that I'm not bearish or bullish really; it appears after the bubble and correction that we're going to hang out in the $2 to $3 range (or $2 to $3.50) for a while, waiting for the next big bubble. In the meantime, we'll bounce around in that range quite a bit, month to month. Or maybe not, but I'm not betting we're ready for a slow steady climb just yet. Guess we'll see how our bets play out in the next few weeks, and Dan can update his "wrong and right" thread. :-)

[plastic.elastic]

The amount of fortune teller in this section is off the wall.

I would have never imagined where they hang out.

 

[trogdorjw73]

The amount of fortune teller in this section is off the wall. I would have never imagined where they hang out.

Hey, it's called "speculation" for a reason. Maybe we should have a sub-subforum called "prognostications" though? LOL

[PrintCoins]

Someone fiddled around, took some cash, but in the end sold a lot of bitcoins.

It took a while for the economy to "digest" these bitcoins and bring it back to the real value of $3. Fortunately I see this as a re-stabilization of the currency, which makes it more suitable for merchants. As a merchant myself I don't like having to check what mtgox says all the time (I am geeky and set up a script, but still...). I would rather just be able to say, ok, take $ and divide by 3, and that should be good for a long time.

When the "manipulator" dumped a lot of bitcoins, a lot of people nibbled them up. This is good because the more spread out bitcoins are in people's hands the more stable they become (barring any panic or mania). When all of the early adopters cash out we shouldn't have any more single actor swings.

Then maybe all the speculators can go home and we can have a nice boring currency that is free from outside interference. MtGox will close its doors, and I can go in any fast food joint in the world, swipe my phone and get a burger.

I have big, yet humble dreams

[Vandroiy]

robkohr: uhm, no offense, but I think you got it wrong.

Speculators stabilize the price! If they all go home, it will start swinging again, possibly very much! the stabilization has not been working perfectly because everything is new and the initial distribution of coins was not exactly natural.

Imagine someone buying in with 1M USD in a hurry, for whatever reason. You better have speculators ready to dampen the spike, or you, as a merchant, will have a lot of "fun" trying to do your work normally. The same goes for an early adopter cashing out; without speculators, the price would have been hammered far below 1 USD on that 300k BTC volume day.

BTW, it's strange tactics to go onto a speculation forum and state that speculators are useless.

[PrintCoins]

BTW, it's strange tactics to go onto a speculation forum and state that speculators are useless.

It was a homework assignment.

[Revalin]

A week or two ago when Bitcoin went up to the $3 mark, many here said it was "artificially caused" by the massive "fake" bid wall of "the manipulator." Well, that bid wall wasn't fake - it was filled.

But here we are at $3 again... so what's the excuse this time?

There's nothing fake about it.  Someone's using a very real bid wall to artificially shove the market around.  The motive is still unclear.

[dancupid]

The 10,000btc 'selling' wall at $3.05 seems to be his next move. Someone wants to force the price down. If it could move naturally above this it already would have reached 3.10 at least. All the upward pressure is just bouncing off the wall.
It's a good time to sell at $3.02/$3.03 though.
Someone needs to put a big bidding wall at $2.90 and we may see some stability for a while

Edit - or maybe it's just someone waiting for the big player to come in and buy their bitcoins

[Dan The Man]

Maybe it's the guy who unintentionally bought 45000 bitcoins trying to get rid of a few at a profit.

[Gabi]

I think someone is manipulating the manipulator

[Technomage]

In any event I feel it's just a matter of time when we can say goodbye to prices below $3. Maybe this month, maybe the next, but that time is coming. My tip for people who are waiting for the price to go to the mid $2 area again, don't wait too long.