Bitcoin likely won't recover until 2025

[TopTort777]

Well the halving will be happening in 2024 , meaning this will be in take effect at 2025 so basically the expectation will be in 2025  bull run.

but of course things may change in different direction because there are countries that coming inside here and there , either adoption or acceptance but at least there are views we can see in the future .

Previous halving did not have any significant effect. The only effect that cryptocurrency has during last 1-2 years was Elon effect The boom of crypto and a creation of thousands of useless and scam meme coins. There were posts on the forum about "bitcoin-4-year-life-cycle". Looks like we are in the beginning of it. But I personally don't believe in all these cycles, predictions, holidays that impact price and other bs. Crypto community is very humble, naïve and young. "In which direction does the wind blow", there cryptocurrency goes.

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[Lucius]

The last halvings occurred in 2016 and 2020, and crypto analysts expect the next one to take place in 2024.

When you read a sentence like this, you wonder what kind of crypto analysts they really are if they expect something to happen, and everyone should know that halving without exception happens every 210 000 blocks, and that it can’t happen in 2023 or 2025. The whole article is just bad journalism and PR for a certain company, there is nothing new or significant that we did not already know.

It is still too early to say whether we have entered the crypto winter phase, or whether the 4-year cycle will be interrupted. Recovery is still a relative thing, for some the current situation is an opportunity for daily profit and they certainly want this situation to last as long as possible.

[davis196]

One month ago,the Bitcoin price dropped to 34K USD and everyone was waiting for a 30K or 20K price bottom,stating that the recovery will be slow and a new ATH won't happen in 2023.
During February,the Bitcoin price went from 34K to 44K USD and everyone forgot about the doom&gloom predictions.Many people were expecting a bull run to 50K USD.
Now,the Bitcoin price is going down,all financial markets are going down due to the political situation.
The bears are dominating the market,predicting a new ATH in 2025.
In summary,don't trust anyone.Every opinion about the BTC price is just a price speculation.

[KennyR]

One month ago,the Bitcoin price dropped to 34K USD and everyone was waiting for a 30K or 20K price bottom,stating that the recovery will be slow and a new ATH won't happen in 2023.
During February,the Bitcoin price went from 34K to 44K USD and everyone forgot about the doom&gloom predictions.Many people were expecting a bull run to 50K USD.
Now,the Bitcoin price is going down,all financial markets are going down due to the political situation.
The bears are dominating the market,predicting a new ATH in 2025.
In summary,don't trust anyone.Every opinion about the BTC price is just a price speculation.

The market will bounce back and further it can drop down. This is the common pattern with every market. Just a month back we're speculating in a similar way about the price drop nearing $30k, but the bounce back happened in a much shorter time than expected. Once again the price crash have been taking place with intermittent recovery. The price that reached $36500 have now crossed $38500. The market is speculative and it reacts. It is our responsibility to stay safe without making our own choice.

[Poker Player]

Huobi co-founder predicts this cycle is going to repeat itself, following the last bear market pattern, which started right after the ATH of 2017 and lasted long painful years... Is it too pessimistic to think this way or is the halving the real game changer factor which drives market's prices, as Du Jun says?

Well he seems pessimistic for how relatively bullish people are on this forum, but as the days go on I see less and less bullish people thinking that the top of this cycle was reached last year at almost $70k.

The bad thing is that if that is the case, it is normal to think that the spectacular returns of Bitcoin are over and that, getting to say $1M, is going to take a long time, and not a few years as some theories last year predicted (like the supercycle theory).

[bitterguy28]

it is given that market of crypto falls after there is a great pump happen (that mostly comes from the effect of Bitcoin halving every 4 years)  i remember the 2017 scenario in which when 2018 comes the price of bitcoin really dumped(but altcoin made its season in early months) and what can we expect this year?
as 2021 made our path really high and majority of us makes its way up as we experienced a great pumping as i myself took at least 200% of my growth.

[arwin100]

it is given that market of crypto falls after there is a great pump happen (that mostly comes from the effect of Bitcoin halving every 4 years)  i remember the 2017 scenario in which when 2018 comes the price of bitcoin really dumped(but altcoin made its season in early months) and what can we expect this year?
as 2021 made our path really high and majority of us makes its way up as we experienced a great pumping as i myself took at least 200% of my growth.

Most likely it happen because base on history this scenario really happen that's why on next halving we must be prepared for the dump to come. I'm sure those who experience the past halving already know this but for new traders or holders better this will be a learning experience to them since it can help them to create their trading plans if bull market season arrives again.

[aruldaroy]

Huobi co-founder Du Jun told CNBC on Sunday that bitcoin prices are often influenced by a technological change in the cryptocurrency's network, called "halving".

Halving is a key feature of bitcoin, and refers to a cutting in half of the amount of cryptocurrency that so-called miners receive as a reward for validating transactions.

The last halvings occurred in 2016 and 2020, and crypto analysts expect the next one to take place in 2024.

Huobi co-founder predicts this cycle is going to repeat itself, following the last bear market pattern, which started right after the ATH of 2017 and lasted long painful years... Is it too pessimistic to think this way or is the halving the real game changer factor which drives market's prices, as Du Jun says?

He also mentions another factors such pandemics and geopolitical issues can influence bitcoin's price, but it's clear the halving factor was highlighted as the most important and influent one among all.

Bitcoin is shaping up to enter a bear market and likely won't recover until 2025, co-founder of Huobi crypto exchange says

I think this is a wrong word, after 2017 bitcoin reached its highest ATH in 2021, so it's not true what was said, the pandemic also didn't completely affect bitcoin going down at such a low price like that statement, especially if he said bitcoin would not recovering to 2025, this is even more absurd, need further study for the person who made this forecast, because the actual process of bitcoin's journey is far from that prediction.

I also wouldn't believe if bitcoin wasn't able to recover or bounce back until 2025 it's a very long time running so bitcoin will continue like this.
Because I believe investors will come back again to push bitcoin up to the moon as happened in 2021 yesterday.
The prediction is like made up.

[Emitdama]

it is given that market of crypto falls after there is a great pump happen (that mostly comes from the effect of Bitcoin halving every 4 years)  i remember the 2017 scenario in which when 2018 comes the price of bitcoin really dumped(but altcoin made its season in early months) and what can we expect this year?
as 2021 made our path really high and majority of us makes its way up as we experienced a great pumping as i myself took at least 200% of my growth.

Most likely it happen because base on history this scenario really happen that's why on next halving we must be prepared for the dump to come. I'm sure those who experience the past halving already know this but for new traders or holders better this will be a learning experience to them since it can help them to create their trading plans if bull market season arrives again.

It happened twice already based on the explanation in the OP where they used two dates, 2016 and 2020 halving so there is a good chance that it will happen again. New entrants are lucky because there are now posts like this where they can use as a reference to know what to expect.

Halving might caused the value to dump if we look on the past dates but the duration is only 1 year and i think for me that was not long. After that, the price can go back again with greater returns. Buying and then holding is for 1 year is worth it. We still have 2 years to the next halving and cryptos can still recover and experience an ATH during this period.

[peter0425]

If that's the prediction and it happens, we don't need to panic and can only prepare ourselves by trying to get profit for profit from now on so that if it really happens, we can buy lots of coins at the most basic price.
But I don't really think about it because if it is related to the halving, the remaining bitcoins, then the possibility is that the bitcoin price can still be above $35k or, at worst, maybe around $30k-$35k or it should stay at $33k-$40k but I don't know.
But hopefully, the price can stay in this price range and don't drop so deep that it can bounce back to $40k.
I think it can make our profit, especially if the price is always like that so we can profit many times.

Well it is now , seeing bitcoin drops to below 35k and now staying at 34 k?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

maybe the support would be at least 30k the most ..

can't wait to see the price of bitcoin falls down to 20k level as this was my target value to re invest all my funds in bank 

I will risk everything that i have once this price reached back again.

[Poker Player]

can't wait to see the price of bitcoin falls down to 20k level as this was my target value to re invest all my funds in bank 

I will risk everything that i have once this price reached back again.

You do it anyway, but what usually happens in these cases is that if it goes down to that level, the people who said they would buy at $20K, shit their pants and don't buy for fear of it going down further.

Imagine it gets to that level. It would be one step below $20K, and therefore, it would be the first time in a cycle that it goes below the top of the previous cycle. It would break all the schemes. Couple that with the fact that ATH this cycle, at least so far, has been relatively low, and I think a lot of people would panic if we hit $20K.

[ipanks]

It seems to have happened because the price has dropped drastically but hopefully, it won't go down any further. Yes, people are now panicking to see the uncertain market conditions. If people are still panicking and selling their bitcoins quickly in the next few hours, that will trigger even more price declines. But it looks like this cycle won't be the same as it was a few years ago as things are already very different and an uptick is expected to come soon.

[StreakW]

I think if this quadrennial cycle continues, chances are we are now in the first phase of a bear market. Moreover, currently, the price of bitcoin has fallen by almost 40% from the ATH level since last November 2021. But I'm sure the pattern of the four-year cycle is unlikely to be the same now that many countries have adopted bitcoin. Therefore I expect we can welcome a bull market not until the end of 2024.

[Ararbermas]

But I'm sure the pattern of the four-year cycle is unlikely to be the same now that many countries have adopted bitcoin. Therefore I expect we can welcome a bull market not until the end of 2024.

I agree. because obviously bitcoin is getting matured because of adoption every year. so i don't think as well it will stay the same, i mean because of the pattern of four year cycle its possible to happen that bitcoin will stay bearish until 2025 and can't recover because of that halving..

Imagine bitcoin is already down since the ATH and currently at 39k level. so what if it happens what will be the value of bitcoin until 2025.?

[bitzizzix]

can't wait to see the price of bitcoin falls down to 20k level as this was my target value to re invest all my funds in bank 

I will risk everything that i have once this price reached back again.

You do it anyway, but what usually happens in these cases is that if it goes down to that level, the people who said they would buy at $20K, shit their pants and don't buy for fear of it going down further.

Imagine it gets to that level. It would be one step below $20K, and therefore, it would be the first time in a cycle that it goes below the top of the previous cycle. It would break all the schemes. Couple that with the fact that ATH this cycle, at least so far, has been relatively low, and I think a lot of people would panic if we hit $20K.

I hope that won't happen and we have to convince new investors to keep believing that the bulls are going up because this year a lot of new investors are getting involved in bitcoin after the new ATH, and I'm sure all are expecting the price to recover and continue going up.
and if the bitcoin price reaches 20k i am sure their trust in bitcoin will decrease unless they understand bitcoin's footprint, every decrease must be a lot of them panicking who end up taking the wrong decision. So hopefully the decline is not up to 20k and what happens to the movement of bitcoin is only because of the news and pros and cons that have occurred so far which will eventually turn out to be pros and will increase the price of bitcoin, and the decline will still occur but will not go that far.

[buwaytress]

Yeah, even with this unexpected rally (and again, thanks to stock markets I would say), I ain't expecting to upgrade my personal view of where we gonna be at this year. Happy to wait til 2025 haha. Halving is the one true factor that has not failed markets, and the pricing in will only begin next year at earliest.

Stack them well, gentlemen.

[STT]

Seems an extreme way to put it that ATH would be a recovery and anything less is something negative.    This whole price range is well above previous trading for BTC over many years so it remains positive but just not at its highs.   Right now price is trending positively though nominally sideways its doing well so long its above the weekly average which it is.   Todays postive marker would be something 38.5k, seems like we would close the week out here despite being in the midst of a disruptive war in Europe.

[pieppiep]

I don't mind if bitcoin won't recover until 2025 because that means we can still have the opportunity to collect more bitcoins from now until the recovery takes place later. We still have at least 3 more years to try to get more bitcoins and I'm sure if the price moves up and down more, we can profit. We can save profits in bitcoins until the recovery phase comes again and we will have a chance to sell at the next high price.

[poldanmig]

I don't mind if bitcoin won't recover until 2025 because that means we can still have the opportunity to collect more bitcoins from now until the recovery takes place later. We still have at least 3 more years to try to get more bitcoins and I'm sure if the price moves up and down more, we can profit. We can save profits in bitcoins until the recovery phase comes again and we will have a chance to sell at the next high price.

Now is the right time for us to collect as much bitcoin as possible, because with the current price correction of course we can get bitcoin at a fairly cheap price, we all know that bitcoin investment tends to be more profitable for anyone who dares to hold on for a long time, so as you said it doesn't matter if we have to wait until 2025 to see the bitcoin price recover, if indeed later it can give us a big advantage.

[virasog]

I don't mind if bitcoin won't recover until 2025 because that means we can still have the opportunity to collect more bitcoins from now until the recovery takes place later. We still have at least 3 more years to try to get more bitcoins and I'm sure if the price moves up and down more, we can profit. We can save profits in bitcoins until the recovery phase comes again and we will have a chance to sell at the next high price.

Yes, i agree with the first part that we need to collect as much bitcoin as possible but i may not agree that bitcoin may not recover until 2025. What if i say that bitcoin will reach another all time high before the next halving or before 2025 ?

Believe me. i am still hoping for the blow off top for bitcoin which may be over 100,000$ and that too in 2022.  There will be a bad bear market of 2 years after this event.