Bitcoin likely won't recover until 2025

[kawetsriyanto]

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

Very much agree with your explanation. If we are talking about the Bullrun cycle and BTC halving every 4 years, this year is the beginning of the bearish season. So, it is rather difficult to expect a market recovery this year or the next 2 years. When people expect crypto coins/tokens to achieve their ATHs again, on the contrary the prices are starting to drop gradually. It is not a proper time to expect Bullrun or uptrend anymore although a rebound/pump may happen at any time before the next dump. Yes, in theory, the right time to expect the recovery is in 2025.

[24Kt]

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

Very much agree with your explanation. If we are talking about the Bullrun cycle and BTC halving every 4 years, this year is the beginning of the bearish season. So, it is rather difficult to expect a market recovery this year or the next 2 years. When people expect crypto coins/tokens to achieve their ATHs again, on the contrary the prices are starting to drop gradually. It is not a proper time to expect Bullrun or uptrend anymore although a rebound/pump may happen at any time before the next dump. Yes, in theory, the right time to expect the recovery is in 2025.

But quite hard to be sure about what will happen because the adoption is different from previous halving cycles. The bearish and bullish runs may have different price levels now as we are not expecting it to go below $10k anymore (just an example). No one can also assure about this recovery in 2025. Because this year alone, we may experience another ATH for all we know. Because of what is happening in Russia and Ukraine, they may assist in btc adoption as people are looking for alternative ways to put their assets into safety without too much complications from their government. But such analysis is good so you can have a reference if people are really getting it right when it comes to speculations.

[STT]

Good breakout and build from negative trend.   Positive so long as the chart keeps acting like this, this is an important build as we must hold the 43k area to confirm a break of range.   Erratic daily moves dont count as much as the more progressive gains and leaving the prior range will be a positive move.
  'Recover' is a false narrative to me, we in broader terms are consolidating which is important work; 100k wont appear without the structure and volume of prices put in below as we are doing now.

[Yaunfitda]

^^ I think when we did break out out of the $40k barrier, the price will be short term bullish and this is what we've seen so far, going as high as $45k although it didn't hold that much.

The good thing is that the volume speaks for itself, so definitely the next barrier to be broken is $45k and I think we can do it in the next 4 hour time frame.

[stepwilli]

The funny thing is, when this topic was created it was around 37k or so, went as low as under 35k just a day later, so everyone thought it was possible that it wouldn't recover quickly enough. Maybe not as later as 2025, but not right away. Today, only like 10 days later, we are over 44k already. People are underestimating the potential of crypto and I do not know why. It has been like this forever, it just goes up and down and keeps doing that for a very long time.

I know that some people are not aware of the current situation, but this is how we could make a profit, if we are always aware of the fact that crypto will always go up eventually. Markets could crash and bitcoin could crash with them for a while, but that will always change in the end.

[kawetsriyanto]

But quite hard to be sure about what will happen because the adoption is different from previous halving cycles.

I don't understand what you are trying to explain to me. We are discussing Bitcoin price changes or Bitcoin price cycles, there is nothing to do with Bitcoin adoption. 

The bearish and bullish runs may have different price levels now as we are not expecting it to go below $10k anymore (just an example).

Indeed. The price level may be different but the scheme is probably the same as previously. We know Bitcoin halving is one of the biggest factors to trigger Bullrun. And it has been proven several times, please check again the correlation between BTC halving and Bullrun (bullish) and Bearish. I don't say that the lowest Bitcoin price in the next Bearish will be the same as in 2018-2019, I only stated the cycle to return as in the previous ones.

No one can also assure about this recovery in 2025. Because this year alone, we may experience another ATH for all we know.

There is no certainty in crypto market. BTC can surprise us at any time. But Looks like it will be difficult to reach a new ATH this year. Don't forget about the cycle of Halving/Bullrun/Bearish, we seem in the early of Bearish season.

[Kelvinid]

The funny thing is, when this topic was created it was around 37k or so, went as low as under 35k just a day later, so everyone thought it was possible that it wouldn't recover quickly enough. Maybe not as later as 2025, but not right away. Today, only like 10 days later, we are over 44k already. People are underestimating the potential of crypto and I do not know why. It has been like this forever, it just goes up and down and keeps doing that for a very long time.

I know that some people are not aware of the current situation, but this is how we could make a profit, if we are always aware of the fact that crypto will always go up eventually. Markets could crash and bitcoin could crash with them for a while, but that will always change in the end.

People will always love to talk negatively when seeing the market in a declining position. To hear this wasn't new for me/us but we have also to consider the situation that history never repeats itself. Of course, the dump and pumps come always but those people thinking that the market will it looks like 3 years ago where we are in totally bearish, that is somewhat impossible.

Indeed. We can't underestimate the market nor expect much but we can't erase the reality that the market price went ON and OFF. And those who can't adopt the nature of the market, that obviously could piss them off.

[Rimueng]

The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

[Yaunfitda]

The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

But we rely on past history to make our prediction and that's what the OP is trying to drive at. It's a 4 year cycle, the last bull run was 2021+4 = 2025.

I get your point though, it's because the market is changing and adapting to different circumstances, like bitcoin being a part of the balance sheet of companies now. Or even countries owning it as a reserve asset like gold. So we will see if pattern will continue or will a new cycle will emerge as bitcoin's narrative is evolving now.

[batang_bitcoin]

The market is unpredictable and expects Bitcoin to enter a bear market and likely to recover until 2025, I still hesitate to rely on the four-year cycle model because going forward the pattern will not be the same in the past four years cycle. I'm sure that we won't have a bear market this year. I think the bitcoin price still has the potential to continue the bullish trend, but I realize that a big correction is likely to occur. Therefore, although there is no certainty when the bear market will come and recover, those who HODL bitcoin in the long term will benefit greatly.

It's actually expected that bitcoin should have entered bear market by now. 2025 is quite long as it recovers, a year or two would be sufficient for its recover.
But is there a need for recovery while it's setting itself for a better price while where it came from was actually low years ago? We've been having corrections even during the bull run last year and for this three months of 2022.

[retreat]

everyone is free to make their own predictions. if he thinks bitcoin will return to ATH in 2025 then I think bitcoin will make a new ATH in 2022. we see that until this march there were already 2 countries (Russia and Ukraine) and 1 more city (Lugano) that recognized Bitcoin as a currency. I don't predict the price following the halving history because it's already different.

[btc78]

Huobi co-founder Du Jun told CNBC on Sunday that bitcoin prices are often influenced by a technological change in the cryptocurrency's network, called "halving".

Halving is a key feature of bitcoin, and refers to a cutting in half of the amount of cryptocurrency that so-called miners receive as a reward for validating transactions.

The last halvings occurred in 2016 and 2020, and crypto analysts expect the next one to take place in 2024.

Huobi co-founder predicts this cycle is going to repeat itself, following the last bear market pattern, which started right after the ATH of 2017 and lasted long painful years... Is it too pessimistic to think this way or is the halving the real game changer factor which drives market's prices, as Du Jun says?

He also mentions another factors such pandemics and geopolitical issues can influence bitcoin's price, but it's clear the halving factor was highlighted as the most important and influent one among all.

Bitcoin is shaping up to enter a bear market and likely won't recover until 2025, co-founder of Huobi crypto exchange says

they can predict whatever they wanted but the truth is? market like this is unpredictable and things may change in speed of light .

we have seen those many times before so why not will happen soon?

The thing is we must be ready always in something bad to happen , but of course be positive most of the times for this matter.

[STT]

The biggest year for BTC came in 2017 and also sparked off in 2020 both following Dollar index declines.    So perhaps its best to note that index when expecting any larger gain, my take for 2025 will be revision and consolidation but lets look at the Index strength recently:


This is a fiat measure which means if all government current declines in worth by 50% then nothing will alter on this chart as its only in ratio to each other.   It does give us an idea of how biased the world is to the most central money which is dollars.    We have almost a full swing back to Dollar pre dilution by the flu QE programs, that makes this a low tide mark for BTC I think, when we dollar much lower it will help recovery.   As its macro economics it might take till 2025

[RealMalatesta]

they can predict whatever they wanted but the truth is? market like this is unpredictable and things may change in speed of light .

we have seen those many times before so why not will happen soon?

The thing is we must be ready always in something bad to happen , but of course be positive most of the times for this matter.

I would assume that the market could repeat the 2018 this year if it is the cycle, in that case we are already down to a lower price, back in the day bitcoin went from 20k to 6k levels and now from 68k to under 40k levels as well. But, with the same logic we should be 50k+ next year, and then 70k+ year after that and 500k+ the year after that.

Do you really believe that x10+ increases could still happen in a single year? I am not saying it can't happen, but maybe things are different since we are at a higher price. Doesn't mean that it can't be moving from 70k to 500k+ in a single year but I feel like we may have to reel in our predictions.

[Silberman]

The funny thing is, when this topic was created it was around 37k or so, went as low as under 35k just a day later, so everyone thought it was possible that it wouldn't recover quickly enough. Maybe not as later as 2025, but not right away. Today, only like 10 days later, we are over 44k already. People are underestimating the potential of crypto and I do not know why. It has been like this forever, it just goes up and down and keeps doing that for a very long time.

I know that some people are not aware of the current situation, but this is how we could make a profit, if we are always aware of the fact that crypto will always go up eventually. Markets could crash and bitcoin could crash with them for a while, but that will always change in the end.

And then just a few days later and the price is once again below the 40000 level, it seems to me that the current market conditions which are incredibly unstable are going to last for a long time, investors are very nervous, on one hand as soon as the price drops below the 40000 mark they want to buy bitcoin as it is not clear for how long the price will remain there, but because of the war they do not want to make a long term commitment so they sell their coins as soon as there is any indication that a price decrease could be in order.

[Saisher]

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

I believe in history repeating itself and that's likely to happen in the market, but the market is sentiment-based it could turn this from bad to worse, from good to great, depending on what's happening around us like the pandemic and the ongoing war, right now we are looking on the impact of Ukraine - Russian war in a long term it could become or negative depending on the outcome of the war if it drags on it may have a bad impact.

[TimeTeller]

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

I believe in history repeating itself and that's likely to happen in the market, but the market is sentiment-based it could turn this from bad to worse, from good to great, depending on what's happening around us like the pandemic and the ongoing war, right now we are looking on the impact of Ukraine - Russian war in a long term it could become or negative depending on the outcome of the war if it drags on it may have a bad impact.

And with the evolving reasons why many people are going into crypto.
We can't assure that it will repeat its history or deviate from it.
The growth in crypto market is different in the past years, so making a reference of the previous years may not be valid anymore.
We will see if the speculations are right or wrong in the succeeding years. Will it follow its history or not?

[Oceat]

The market is always unpredictable, back in 2017 the price reached more than $19k I bought a lot even though the transaction fee was more than $50 then the market dropped in 2018 and started to rise or reach new ATH again in 2021 or it took 3 years, trend it keeps repeating and we have to be wary if the bitcoin price drops below $30k.

If what they other replies here is right about the market situation in the future then we must be wary if Bitcoin isn't going to pump anymore due to the manipulation. But we still have Bitcoin halving so it's still possible that the price would pump more though it would take some time then since they previous trend isn't working or is being manipulated.

And yes, the market is always unpredictable and what these experts been saying might not be true somehow or at least just for a period of time. Though they weren't close to telling what they were predicted so it's more like a small bluff to create FUD.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

If we’re following the four year cycles then it’s likely the price will suck in 2022. We’ll bottom in 2023 & then range until the halving in 2024. The price will slowly start to recover but the real bull run will start in 2025, we’ll get ath after ath until late 2025 or early 2026 before starting the next bear market. History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes.

I believe in history repeating itself and that's likely to happen in the market, but the market is sentiment-based it could turn this from bad to worse, from good to great, depending on what's happening around us like the pandemic and the ongoing war, right now we are looking on the impact of Ukraine - Russian war in a long term it could become or negative depending on the outcome of the war if it drags on it may have a bad impact.

And with the evolving reasons why many people are going into crypto.
We can't assure that it will repeat its history or deviate from it.
The growth in crypto market is different in the past years, so making a reference of the previous years may not be valid anymore.
We will see if the speculations are right or wrong in the succeeding years. Will it follow its history or not?

The data is fairly young, so as of now, we can only say that there is indeed a 4 year cycle as explain by @LFC_Bitcoin (who has been in the game for so long, so we must follow his wisdom  ).

So might be better for us to prepare for a bear market in the next two years, might some gloom, but base on my experience it was really hard to be in a bear market, but we did survived it already so we should get some experience already on how to deal with it.

[buwaytress]

Still liking what LFC said early on here. Patterns do not often repeat, but they do rhyme.

I can't see the return of the supercycle. We have already crossed the time period needed for that to happen again I think. Well over a year since the rally, ATH that was relatively underwhelming (for a supercycle), volumes as well.

But that doesn't mean another slow burn rally circa 2025 is a bad thing. Probably suits me much more really.