Putin next steps and where it may fail spectacularly

[paxmao]

It is no surprise, but Putin wants to Bielorussify Ukraine. You need a force of 190 thousand strong to depose the government, you need three months to create a new one, including a submissive police force.

You cannot keep the army in there for ever. Those soldiers are costly to maintain and it seems like the Ukrainian population are not quite getting the grasp of the "liberation" and are likely to setup a long an difficult urban warfare followed by an obstinate resistance.

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

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[Charles-Tim]

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

I have watched videos and see how Ukrainians are reacting to what Putin has done. Ukraine do not allow male adults under 60 years to leave the country, many Ukraine citizens are volunteering and ready to join Ukrainian military force, the process to join made easier.

What surprised me most about this is that Ukraine government are now accepting bitcoin, ethereum and tether donations, millions of dollars has been deposited into the crypto addresses control by the Ukrainian government.

France declaring to be sending military weapon to Ukraine, Germany today stood up too on removing Russia from Swift and also decleared sending weapon to Ukraine, Germany and Netherlands has decleared sending weapon to Ukraine, France also said she will send more. 25 NATO countries will send weapon (I may not get everything right, but what I have been following).

With the help of NATO and other helpings from outside Ukraine, I do not think Ukrainians will decide to accept that they have been defeated. Just my take. We wish the war to end soon, but I do not think Putin will let that happen anytime soon.

The longer it is taking Russia to win, the harder it will become for Russia, sanctioning may not work fast, but it may dawn on Russia over long time period. Although, China said to open trade for Russia.

[istiak2277]

It is no surprise, but Putin wants to Bielorussify Ukraine. You need a force of 190 thousand strong to depose the government, you need three months to create a new one, including a submissive police force.

You cannot keep the army in there for ever. Those soldiers are costly to maintain and it seems like the Ukrainian population are not quite getting the grasp of the "liberation" and are likely to setup a long an difficult urban warfare followed by an obstinate resistance.

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

Kiev could fall if NATO haven't deployed its special troops to the capital. I know officially NATO is not involved but there are plenty of proofs that Black Ops unite are being deployed in Ukraine. Now its Russia vs NATO unofficially. Most of the Russia's main force are still not deployed and their advanced tank and aircraft still on the ground. I do not know what Putin's ultimate objective is but after so much preparation it seems he is not interested for a quick victory which concern me most. I think his objective is something else that's why he mostly using mercenary unit and keep his main force in reserve. Pretty sure he hasn't achieve his first object yet which is still unknow.

[jrrsparkles]

But I have heard that a part of Ukraine citizens are formerly from Russia so they are now supporting the liberation but not actually in the war mode but since all the things started already the end is not going to be very smooth. Also we can see some news that NATO countries are preparing their soldiers to support Ukraine.

[gantez]

I think this war is unnecessary show of power and military strength and to Russia, it won't be achieved as such because of the NATO countries support. For now no country have openly supported Russia, maybe they are just watching . People are dying in Ukraine over 200 people now and this is not a joke, it is unfortunate that we are commenting like spectators in a football match but my heart is heavy how leaders don't care to attack others because they are stronger but in this, the stronger may not be supreme, the Ukraine president has declared to die and not to surrender. I hope a resolution is reached soon before the number of deaths rise higher.

[retreat]

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

just before putin launched his attack on ukraine he would have been convinced he had to win a few sides countries but ukraine was also prepared for a long-running attack from russia. if ukraine succumbs then it is certain that many cities will be captured by russia, I support Ukrainians to protect the country and the cities that are rightfully theirs. the good news is that donations from outside keep coming for ukraine, their economy will definitely not be shaken.

[TheCoinGrabber]

This war is actually playing to multiple advantages for Russia. On one-hand it's going to start another refugee crisis for the EU. Poland is already overwhelmed by the refugees being sent its way by Belarus (likely under Russian instruction) and now it'll have to take in Ukrainians too. Then on the other-hand, the same refugee crisis is going to alter the demographics of Ukraine, as Ukrainians flee and the ethnic Russians stay behind. If Putin ruin Ukraine enough before leaving it, the Ukrainians that fled might not come back in decades, giving time for the Russians to multiply.

Russia since the tsarist to Soviet times has repeatedly tried to Russify the region. Catherine the Great for example expelled the Tatars from Crimea and Stalin created a famine to kill off Ukrainians. Both then settled the areas with Russians. Russians in Ukraine would always be loyal to Russia. That's were they came from. Ukraine's biggest mistake is not making actions to rectify this Russification imposed on them in the past.

[aysg76]

I have watched videos and see how Ukrainians are reacting to what Putin has done. Ukraine do not allow male adults under 60 years to leave the country, many Ukraine citizens are volunteering and ready to join Ukrainian military force, the process to join made easier.

The Ukrainian soldiers are fighting hard for the country try to defend their position and don't allow the Russian military to enter the Kyiv and protect it's citizen.Have seen many distrupting videos of attacks and many losing their lives in this ego war against the Ukraine.The soldiers are giving their best for the country like this one is true act of bravery and will be remembered for long time :

A Ukrainian soldier blew up a bridge that connects Russia-occupied Crimea to mainland Ukraine in order to stop Russian tanks from advancing. In the process, he sacrificed his own life.

The president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also supporting the country and not ready to leave the capital and have said he and his family is the first Target of Russia but he will still fight till his last breath and have clearly gave permission to ordinary citizens to pick up the weapons and volunteer for the war to protect the country.

What surprised me most about this is that Ukraine government are now accepting bitcoin, ethereum and tether donations, millions of dollars has been deposited into the crypto addresses control by the Ukrainian government.

They are getting huge support from the people and crypto community that they have gathered around $4.4 million in their wallets and have urged people also to give btc and eth support to them as to fund the war and soldiers.

The Ukrainian government is regularly getting support in btc and other cryptos and they have already been donated around $4 Million from people



The world is with them and hope global peace prevails and bitcoiners are showing support to them.

France declaring to be sending military weapon to Ukraine, Germany today stood up too on removing Russia from Swift and also decleared sending weapon to Ukraine, Germany and Netherlands has decleared sending weapon to Ukraine, France also said she will send more. 25 NATO countries will send weapon (I may not get everything right, but what I have been following).

Poland has already been sending the ammunition and food packages to Ukraine through different modes but have said they will deliver it to the borders and will not directly indulge in war with them or in military operations.

Czech Republic has promised to deliver 30000 pistols and around 7-8k revolvers to them and other facilities.

Netherlands to supply 200 stinger missiles to Ukraine along with other 25 nations including US, France and Germany who are providing weapons and military support to Ukraine.

Global assistance to Ukraine

With the help of NATO and other helpings from outside Ukraine, I do not think Ukrainians will decide to accept that they have been defeated. Just my take. We wish the war to end soon, but I do not think Putin will let that happen anytime soon.

There are far more financial as well social consequences which Russia will also had to bear in the long run even if he intends to take this war long as Ukraine is not getting defeated easily.

The longer it is taking Russia to win, the harder it will become for Russia, sanctioning may not work fast, but it may dawn on Russia over long time period. Although, China said to open trade for Russia.

China always has cheap tactics and thinking to follow it's path over to Taiwan and thinking lending support to Russia will make it's position more stronger on world level but will aslo end up in same direction.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

You cannot keep the army in there for ever.

According to this guy:
https://twitter.com/RihoTerras - "Member of European Parliament @EPPGroup 🇪🇪 @EP_Industry,  @EP_Agriculture. Deputy coordinator for @EP_ArtifIntel. Former Chief of Defence of Estonia."

Russia has only 10 days to achieve their goals (win Kiev) because 1 day of war cost them 20 billion dollars.

So its super important to help Ukraine. Put pressure on governments of your countries (they want your votes). Make them do all they can to help.

Fiancial help is also needed. For example here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5387518.msg59373361#msg59373361

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

I'm afraid that after 10 days without success Putin will be faced with a choice:

1- negotiating and eventually accepting failure
2- "Stalin mode" - to arouse fear and demeanor
3- troop regrouping and ultimatums - "Kiev has 2 days to surrender or the nuclear bombs will make it disapear"

[Fortify]

It is no surprise, but Putin wants to Bielorussify Ukraine. You need a force of 190 thousand strong to depose the government, you need three months to create a new one, including a submissive police force.

You cannot keep the army in there for ever. Those soldiers are costly to maintain and it seems like the Ukrainian population are not quite getting the grasp of the "liberation" and are likely to setup a long an difficult urban warfare followed by an obstinate resistance.

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

The only way for this to end quickly now is for Putin to stop existing. He has surrounded himself with yes men for the last 20 years and lives an extravagant life far detached from anything the average Russian will see. He expected Europe and the world to simply shout a few stern words, for the invasion to be over in a day and to have a puppet government in place by yesterday. However it has now become a fight for democracy versus the evils of his authoritarian style of governance. He has threatened Sweden and Finland with military action if they ever make a decision on their own future. He has created a devastating economic and cultural shock to Russia, far beyond what he ever could have imagined. Sadly, the coward he is - this will mean more death and destruction as he tries to crush opposition. He is leading the world towards world war 3 because he is an old man with no future - it doesn't matter what happens and this is his attempt to rebuild a USSR that failed for all the same reasons.

[laredo7mm]

1- negotiating and eventually accepting failure
2- "Stalin mode" - to arouse fear and demeanor
3- troop regrouping and ultimatums - "Kiev has 2 days to surrender or the nuclear bombs will make it disapear"

So is Putin spending 20 billion per day over mercenary, separatist, and Chechen guerilla fighters? If Putin only doing these to annex Ukraine then I must say he is dumb. But is that really that simple? I do not think so. What if Putin attacks Poland or other Eastern NATO countries with Belarus? What is the meaning of keeping the main forces in reserve and sending mercenaries to the battlefield? Why did he send 2000 mercenary troops to occupy Kyiv? We need these answers to understand what is going to happen. possibilities of Using nuclear weapons is close to zero. They are trying to minimize civilian casualties till now so using nuclear arms makes no sense.

[lovesmayfamilis]

The latest news says that Russia was able to arrange a meeting with the Ukrainian delegation in the city of Gomel, which is located in Belarus. The President of Belarus was able to convince Zelensky to meet with Russian representatives.
Let's pray that the negotiations will be held at the right level, and finally, the unnecessary war will be stopped.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

So is Putin spending 20 billion per day over mercenary, separatist, and Chechen guerilla fighters? If Putin only doing these to annex Ukraine then I must say he is dumb. But is that really that simple? I do not think so. What if Putin attacks Poland or other Eastern NATO countries with Belarus? What is the meaning of keeping the main forces in reserve and sending mercenaries to the battlefield? Why did he send 2000 mercenary troops to occupy Kyiv? We need these answers to understand what is going to happen. possibilities of Using nuclear weapons is close to zero. They are trying to minimize civilian casualties till now so using nuclear arms makes no sense.

He put 150k trups near border. He is attacking not only Kiev, but the whole of Ukraine. First he bombed some targets (supposedly not even strategic) and attacked without declaring war, calling his actions "operation". I think at first he wanted to scare Ukraine with 150k troops. Then he started "operation" which goal was to capturing Kiev, exterminate the present authorities and take power over Ukraine.

But he failed. He underestimated Ukraine's bravery and overestimated his abilities.

They are trying to minimize civilian casualties till now so using nuclear arms makes no sense.

But he failed to do it in "minimize civilian casualties" way. His goal is no longer do it  in "minimize civilian casualties" way. By bombing residential buildings they proved it.

[mindrust]

This may turn into a world war very quickly. These recent events remind me of what happened during the first 2 world wars. War and hyperinflation always go hand to hand and we are just about to experience this. Maybe the covid19 plan of the elites were failed so they came up with this to reset the economy for good this time. War is about to break out just when the US is having record high inflation in the last 40 years. I don't think this is a coincidence.

[MCVXYZ]

It is no surprise, but Putin wants to Bielorussify Ukraine. You need a force of 190 thousand strong to depose the government, you need three months to create a new one, including a submissive police force.

You cannot keep the army in there for ever. Those soldiers are costly to maintain and it seems like the Ukrainian population are not quite getting the grasp of the "liberation" and are likely to setup a long an difficult urban warfare followed by an obstinate resistance.

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

Ukraine can't be defeated. If we look at the  history we will see what they've done for the freedom and peace. their nation survived after Holodomor in 1992-1993, WW2. they have been fighting for decades against authoritarianism and they deserve all of the good things... Therefore they won't give up because heroism is in their blood. Glory to Ukraine!

[judeafante]

You cannot keep the army in there for ever. Those soldiers are costly to maintain and it seems like the Ukrainian population are not quite getting the grasp of the "liberation" and are likely to setup a long an difficult urban warfare followed by an obstinate resistance.

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

Their President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a big inspiration for all of us he is ready to die for his country, he is getting a lot of support from the international community, I just hope they are banned from SWIFT banking being cut off from Swift could shrink Russia's economy by 5%, it's going to be a huge mistake if the world let Putin conquer Ukraine he will go further, it's time for the world to shrink Russian economic power to stop Putin's war funding.
There are reports that Germany is sending ammunition and rockets to Ukraine to help them against Russia.

[Vatimins]

     Honestly, I am pretty impressed with the Ukrainian people they are evidently brave citizens. Imagine people who were out of the country even went home just to defend their country from this madness. Their president which is a comedian was offered to be escorted out of Ukraine but instead asked for ammunition and is still staying at the capital. This may have been the thing that has pushed the morale of the Ukrainian people and seeing things as they are now, I think they are considering to fighting it out to the bitter end. I hope it doesn't reach to that point though.

[gantez]

The latest news says that Russia was able to arrange a meeting with the Ukrainian delegation in the city of Gomel, which is located in Belarus. The President of Belarus was able to convince Zelensky to meet with Russian representatives.
Let's pray that the negotiations will be held at the right level, and finally, the unnecessary war will be stopped.

On the contrary to this information , I think Zelensky initially turned that location down. He refusing meeting in Belarus. He said also that he won't be in a meeting in any country where Putin used to attack Ukraine. But now he has accepted to meet with Russia for the meeting at the border of Belarus. They are going to start having talks on seize fire, but for now there is street fight in Kharkov between Russia Army and Ukraine as they entered the second city.

[Kakmakr]

The Ukrainians might be holding off for a while, but I think the Russian forces and the flat earth bombing of major cities are going to break their spirits in the long run. Also, when all men younger than 60 years old are killed in the clashes, mostly women and young children will be left behind to go on with their lives. (What future is that?)

Also, Putin must win this war... for his own people to fear him and for him to stay in power. A defeat to the Ukrainians will put doubts in their minds and we might see him being removed from power. 

[Jody.Drummer]

It is no surprise, but Putin wants to Bielorussify Ukraine. You need a force of 190 thousand strong to depose the government, you need three months to create a new one, including a submissive police force.

You cannot keep the army in there for ever. Those soldiers are costly to maintain and it seems like the Ukrainian population are not quite getting the grasp of the "liberation" and are likely to setup a long an difficult urban warfare followed by an obstinate resistance.

My concern now is that Putin cannot back from his personal gamble and if this go guerrilla he may commit atrocities beyond what we think possible - going Stalin mode on Ukraine.

In my view, Ukraine cannot be defeated until the Ukrainians themselves decide that they have been defeated.

To be honest, in the last few days I have always followed the movement of information spread both on television and in foreign media. All I can think about is waiting for the reaction of the US and NATO to react how they side with Ukraine because after that China is ready to attack Taiwan to take advantage of the busy situation of the US and NATO dealing with Ukraine. For now, we're just keeping an eye on the border. Only President Trump can stop Russia from invading Ukraine, only during the presidencies of George Bush, Obama, and now Biden Russia dares to invade Ukraine.
There is a large source of economic income in Ukraine. You know exactly what Putin wants in Ukraine. Because if you join NATO, Russia will not grow strong and fertile in terms of the global economy.