Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4?

[antoineph]

I think, at the moment it happens, the day will be "today".

I think, on the day it happens, the price will surely reach above $4.

[1714806365]

1714806365

[1714806365]

1714806365

[1714806365]

1714806365

[BTCurious]

Your predictive powers are astounding, my dear sir.

[antoineph]

How can you tell? You must be able to see quite accurately into the future.

[BTCurious]

I have empirical proof that truisms that are true now will also prove to be truisms that are true in the future. Proof by induction shows that if it held yesterday, and it holds today, it will hold in all of time.

A friend who's in liquor production
Owns a still of astounding construction.
The alcohol boils
Through old magnet coils;
She says that it's "proof by induction."

[finway]

According to the stats, seems after Feb.

[BTCurious]

"The stats" never lie.

[cbeast]

Feb 2nd 2012

 Bonus prediction of daily high of 4.14760
in case you put a second reward for guessing what it breaks 4.00 at. ;p

Only if the groundhog sees his shadow.

[sadpandatech]

Feb 2nd 2012

 Bonus prediction of daily high of 4.14760
in case you put a second reward for guessing what it breaks 4.00 at. ;p

Only if the groundhog sees his shadow.

  aye, that overgrown rat is gonna take one look at this crap and run right back in. =)

[proudhon]

Here's my optimistic prediction:

The price will briefly break $4 sometime in mid to late January.  Between January and May the price will dip back down into the 2s.  Between May and July the price will peak, possibly even reaching new all-time highs.  By December 2012 the price will have settled in the $6-8 range.

[BadBear]

Here's my optimistic prediction:

The price will briefly break $4 sometime in mid to late January.  Between January and May the price will dip back down into the 2s.  Between May and July the price will peak, possibly evening reaching new all-time highs.  By December 2012 the price will have settled in $6-8 range.

That sounds pretty realistic, if all goes well. 

[714]

Sometimes 2013... that option isn't there so I did choose 'never'

There is the "May or later" option.  

But you really don't think it will at least spike over $4 at some point in 2012?  I think there will be at least one tulip-style mania in 2012 for some reason or another, and it only takes one deep wallet to buy 50k btc and push the price to $4.

I don't think so. Reason is that for every person willing to buy 50k btc there are two who are willing to sell for 'acceptable' losses, those who bought in during the dip to 4.08.

Word.  Think about the guy with the massive wall at 2.90 that got sold into.  He's gonna be itching to get out soon likely, to rebuy lower or whatever.  He's probably just waiting for the right time. 

Agreed. When tulip time comes, sell 'em if you got 'em 

[ineededausername]

Here's my optimistic prediction:

The price will briefly break $4 sometime in mid to late January.  Between January and May the price will dip back down into the 2s.  Between May and July the price will peak, possibly even reaching new all-time highs.  By December 2012 the price will have settled in the $6-8 range.

PROUDHON SAYS PRICE IS GOING UP! SKY IS FALLING

[proudhon]

Here's my optimistic prediction:

The price will briefly break $4 sometime in mid to late January.  Between January and May the price will dip back down into the 2s.  Between May and July the price will peak, possibly even reaching new all-time highs.  By December 2012 the price will have settled in the $6-8 range.

PROUDHON SAYS PRICE IS GOING UP! SKY IS FALLING

That was my optimistic prediction.  Wanna hear my realistic prediction?

[ineededausername]

Go right ahead...

[FlipPro]

Here's my optimistic prediction:

The price will briefly break $4 sometime in mid to late January.  Between January and May the price will dip back down into the 2s.  Between May and July the price will peak, possibly even reaching new all-time highs.  By December 2012 the price will have settled in the $6-8 range.

PROUDHON SAYS PRICE IS GOING UP! SKY IS FALLING

That was my optimistic prediction.  Wanna hear my realistic prediction?

Whats the realistic prediction?

[proudhon]

Go right ahead...

We'll see a push well into $3 between now and January but won't break through into $4.  The price will stagnate around $3.5 or so and then will slowly creep back down to $3 where it'll hover for a while.  By, say, March we'll have seen another very sharp drop down to around $2.  There'll be a fight, but ultimately we'll fall further and by the end of the summer will have hit prices below $1.  I think from there to the end of 2012 we'll see the price bounce between $0.70 and $2.

[BTCurious]

So, plenty of opportunity for speculators, but also for accepting payments it's not too bad. Sounds good!

[molecular]

Jan 24th CET

[molecular]

What really matters for the price is whether Keiser is successful in his 1 million bitcoin users campaign (and I suspect he will be).

Expect another bubble, everyone!  This time, you're the early adopters.   

Hehe. Well said. Keiser campaign will probably pick up in Jan, dunno exactly when

[cbeast]

Jan 24th CET

Pres. Obama will declare National Bitcoin Day. Wow, that's good stuff Maynard!