Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4?

[FlipPro]

DUMB BEARS GETTING SLAUGHTERED!

[1715306953]

1715306953

[1715306953]

1715306953

[deepceleron]

DUMB BEARS GETTING SLAUGHTERED!

[JusticeForYou]

I do believe I chose a Monday.... If not Mistaken... Nope... I'm not.


                  1tabCzGVPEK6kCJpQhFKwpXcsdnhTXyY4


Thanks for the contest 

[old_engineer]

january 21st.

you should specify the timezone so we know what day it falls under once it reaches $4.

Good point.  Might as well be GMT to be fair.

Sorry the_joint, GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, per above, so goat is the winner. Congratulations, goat!!  Send me a bitcoin address either by PM on in this thread, and I'll send you your winnings.  BTC_bear - sorry, it crossed the threshold on Tuesday GMT.

Thanks all for participating!  I was kind of surprised that about 85% of guessers thought that the price would go from $3 to $4 in 3 months or less, which is an astounding 133% annual ROI.  And the majority was right, too, and I've done well with my long position, which I've half cashed out one on the way up.  And everyone that was shorting - HA HA HA!  Better luck next time.

[conspirosphere.tk]

We are above 4. Cheers 

[cypherdoc]

1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq

 3 of the coins will go towards the event for the orphans on the 23rd and the other two I will start a contest in a few days.

Sorry I keep wining guys....

whining, wining, or winning?  nah, you're not a whiner!

[the joint]

january 21st.

you should specify the timezone so we know what day it falls under once it reaches $4.

Good point.  Might as well be GMT to be fair.

Sorry the_joint, GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, per above, so goat is the winner. Congratulations, goat!!  Send me a bitcoin address either by PM on in this thread, and I'll send you your winnings.  BTC_bear - sorry, it crossed the threshold on Tuesday GMT.

Thanks all for participating!  I was kind of surprised that about 85% of guessers thought that the price would go from $3 to $4 in 3 months or less, which is an astounding 133% annual ROI.  And the majority was right, too, and I've done well with my long position, which I've half cashed out one on the way up.  And everyone that was shorting - HA HA HA!  Better luck next time.

UM WTF?!?!

I call absolute bullshit. 

GMT was specified in comment on Dec. 7th, but MY prediction was cast on Dec. 6th before that specification was made.

[BTCurious]

But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

[trogdorjw73]

But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

He wants his cake and he wants to eat it too! I like his new thread and the, "I never checked the thread again until after I discovered I won the contest." Too bad.

[the joint]

But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.

[old_engineer]

But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.

This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).

[BTCurious]

If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?

[the joint]

But you didn't change your vote either, after that was specified. Nor did you specify yourself that you meant local time.

I didn't even VIEW the post again after it was specified until yesterday!

Imagine singing up with Mt. Gox, making a transaction under the premise that your commission rate is .56%.  Then, you go to bed.  2 weeks later, you go back on your account and you find, low and behold the commission rate for that transaction 2 weeks ago is 10%.  You become (naturally) pissed, because the rules of the game changed and you were not made aware of it.

This was a free contest, not a mutually-agreed upon contract.  Ambiguity was pointed out in the rules, and they were clarified in the original thread and broadcast to all participants.  Burden of checking thread falls to the participants.  I had no obligation to individually notify guessers of the clarified rules - did you really expect me to PM everyone that had guessed to see if they wanted to change their weeks-from-now guess based on the time zone clarification?  That's stupid.  No, I'm not sending you any btc.

And I sent Goat 10 btc because he mentioned orphans (which I sent before you posted your butthurt thread, FWIW - I wasn't trying to spite you).

Whether it is a free contest or not is irrelevant.

The statistical nature of the game was slanted against me due to your "rule."

It was free but unfair.

Promises are "free" too...they don't cost a thing, but breaking them is dishonest.  Yes I do expect you to PM everyone to notify them of the rule change.   PhinneusGage apparently had no problem when I raised a legitimate concern that I may forget about the thread, and thus I should be notified personally when my donations are expected.  He seemed to think this was doable.  I think it's more stupid that GMT or UTC should be the deciding factor when individual time zones make more sense.  Apparently, people in this very thread seem to be at odds over which time zone would be most appropriate anyway...some say GMT, some say UTC, and others agree with me.  Given that anyone that makes the same guess (e.g. Dec. 20th) as someone else has their guess immediately nullified due to the "first guesser" rule, the implementation of your GMT rule MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR ME TO WIN.

What if, after your GMT rule, I wanted to change my guess to Dec. 20th?  Well, I wouldn't be able to do that if Goat had already guessed it.  So, your rule made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

[proudhon]

If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?

Excellent question.

[the joint]

If $4 had been reached a day earlier, and you would have been pointed out as a winner, would you have said "Oh, no, never mind actually, the moment of breaking $4 was not on that day in my timezone, so I don't want the reward"?

No, that's why there is the "first guesser" clarification in the rules.  This point is irrelevant.  First guesser wins in the event of a tie (i.e. multiple winners, as was the case).

The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

[BTCurious]

The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

Actually, you would have won if it spiked yesterday. I don't see how you can deem that IMPOSSIBLE.

The "first guesser" rule actually implied there is some standard timezone, otherwise you can't determine which person was first. The fact that you (randomly?) assumed it was your subjective timezone, out of the possible 40 timezones on land seems kind of arbitrary. In any international environment like this forum, it is very reasonable to assume Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de facto standard, unless otherwise specified.

I'm done arguing.

[the joint]

The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

Actually, you would have won if it spiked yesterday. I don't see how you can deem that IMPOSSIBLE.

The "first guesser" rule actually implied there is some standard timezone, otherwise you can't determine which person was first. The fact that you (randomly?) assumed it was your subjective timezone, out of the possible 40 timezones on land seems kind of arbitrary. In any international environment like this forum, it is very reasonable to assume Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) as the de facto standard, unless otherwise specified.

I'm done arguing.

This is where you are wrong.  The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser.  This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player).  This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser."  First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative. 

[molecular]

jeeesh! how much prize money are we talking about? or is this about "being right"?

[the joint]

jeeesh! how much prize money are we talking about? or is this about "being right"?

As I clearly pointed out, it is about fairness.  Amount of winnings is irrelevant.

[trogdorjw73]

It is absolutely not about fairness, unless you define "fairness" as "the joint is right". Fair is doing something without bias, and if there's any biased party in this discussion it is indisputably the joint; goat would likewise not be a fair judge. As the person giving 5 (now 10) BTC away for nothing other than his good will, old_engineer is a far more impartial judge--unless you can prove that he actually knows goat and/or the joint.