Prediction contest: when will bitcoin break $4? or will it never break $4?

[JusticeForYou]

Ok, old engineer,


  All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...

And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.  

[1715195772]

1715195772

[1715195772]

1715195772

[1715195772]

1715195772

[trogdorjw73]

Incidentally, the forum post time stamps are in... you guessed it: UTC time.

[BTCurious]

This is where you are wrong.  The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser.  This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player).  This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser."  First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative.

How would you even objectively verify in what timezone that person is? Your interpretation of the rules is counter-intuitive, and unmanageable in practice.

[old_engineer]

Ok, old engineer,


  All I want to know is if you paid someone based on how 'you' interpreted the rules...

And would that person, post a confirmation to the receipt of said BTC.  

1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq

 3 of the coins will go towards the event for the orphans on the 23rd and the other two I will start a contest in a few days.

Sorry I keep wining guys....

10 btc sent - double stated contest amount - 'cause as I said, he mentioned orphans.  Verifiable here:
https://blockexplorer.com/address/1Nc9H463Z3bFzyq719ogmD8DC7fyaYKAJq

The public blockchain sure does come in handy at times like this, great for transparency and there's no need to trust me or Goat (who is likely asleep, it being 2:30AM in Thailand).

[the joint]

This is where you are wrong.  The first guesser rule implies that the "standard" timezone is the subjective time zone...or the time zone that corresponds to each guesser.  This combines both objectivity (or the syntactic rule that distributes to everyone) and subjectivity (allows for the relative position of each player).  This makes it simple....the first person to post on the thread is the "first guesser."  First simply refers to order...but all time zones are "present," though relative.

How would you even objectively verify in what timezone that person is? Your interpretation of the rules is counter-intuitive, and unmanageable in practice.

It's not only manageable, it's quite easy.  

The GMT rule also changes how the "first guesser wins" rule plays out.  Before the GMT rule, the first guesser wins rule meant that you could vote the same date as somebody else.  After the GMT rule, the first guesser rule meant that you could not vote the same date as someone else.  

[wareen]

As for fairness: participants which made their guess before the clarification of the rules would have had an unfair advantage because they could plausibly claim to have guessed either one of two subsequent days (depending on their timezone).

Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?

[the joint]

As for fairness: participants which made their guess before the clarification of the rules would have had an unfair advantage because they could plausibly claim to have guessed either one of two subsequent days (depending on their timezone).

Just out of curiosity: would you still feel compelled to call old_engineer a scammer if you were in Goat's position and he in yours?

I never called old engineer a scammer.  I said the statistics of the game were slanted, making it uneven and unfair.  I have no problem with oldengineer outside of this situation.

[wareen]

I never called old engineer a scammer.

Ok, but at least you indicated it:

Whether its failure to pay in a bet or failure to pay in a market transaction, scamming and dishonesty are not welcome on this forum.

(emphasis mine)

Sorry if I misunderstood you - it was not my intention to put words in your mouth. You seemed to be concerned about general fairness, hence my honest question on whether you'd have acted the same if you'd have got the money.

[PatrickHarnett]

From the other thread

<quote>I've talked internationally with many foreigners through chat, pm, IM, etc.

Never once has UTC ever come up.  It's more like, "What time is it where you live?"</quote>

Wow? Really.  I talk to people all the time around the world, usually limited to ten different time zones, and compete in competitions where all the times are UTC (which is the actual standard rather than GMT).  I have no idea what CST is nor would I ever need to.  Is that like pacific or mountain time or other versions I'd never use?

So, 10 p.m. CST, scraped in by 2 hours vs another guess in Thai local time that covered more of the day.  If I split hairs, one is more correct than the other.

[JusticeForYou]

Thanks Goat.

[dayfall]

The implementation of the rule change made it IMPOSSIBLE for me to win.

What?  If it had happened on the 19th then you still wouldn't have won? Or are you saying that it was impossible to have happened the day before?  Or was it impossible for you to unambiguously state your bet?

Personally, I don't think you know what "impossible" means.  Face it, your ambiguous bet was interpreted fairly.

[netrin]

Hey Ty Goat,

On the topic of timezones and Thailand, have you ever seen a six hour watch or clock (or gong)? I gave it an honest search in SE Asia but failed. I might exchange my left testicle for one.

    ... mong chao (Thai: ...โมงเช้า, [mōːŋ tɕʰáːw]) for the first half of daytime (07:00 to 12:59)

    Bai ... mong (บ่าย...โมง, [bàːj mōːŋ]) for the latter half of daytime (13:00 to 18:59)

    ... thum (...ทุ่ม, [tʰûm]) for the first half of nighttime (19:00 to 00:59)

    Ti ... (ตี..., [tīː]) for the latter half of nighttime (01:00 to 06:59)

[netrin]

Keep an ear out for it, people will refer to hours after morning or hours after lunch, etc. But I've never seen it written or on clocks or anything like that. I think it's basically a lost tradition. But the idea has fascinated me for a long time. I wanted to produce a clock with only one hand and thought there might be inspiration in Thailand. But nope, everyone I asked nodded and smiled then looked at me like I was crazy.

As to why? Why what?