BITCOIN will rise

[Marvell1]

On-chain data on glassnode shows:
Shocking bitcoin supply on centralized exchange, less and fewer bitcoins are stored and traded on CEX exchange.
The number of holders from 1-10 BTC has increased a lot (orange line) in the past 2 weeks.
The market has endured more than 4 months of decline, are we preparing for a new bullish season?

[mk4]

Re: BITCOIN will rise

Chain analysis can only help us get a good grasp at how supply moves; but it doesn't give us a clear picture of the potential demand — which is what actually mostly matters when talking about markets. Can't really have accurate expectations with supply alone.

[hd49728]

Data on chain shows us true, under tip of iceberg but it does not tell us when price will rise or fall. If we see on chain data, whales do see it and they even plan it to manipulate the market.

So if most of on chain analytics say price will rise soon, whales might hold it for a while to shake weak hands, impatient investors. When there is less potential sell pressure from such investors, whales will pull their triggers to help price to increase.

Price of Bitcoin will rise because it is future. It has changed the world and will change the world more. Fiat currencies will lose their purchasing power and force people to find better alternatives. Bitcoin will be one of best options for them.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

The data is pretty obvious, more and more bitcoin enthusiast just wanted to hold and save and doesn't want to trade and they could be accmulating at this time period. But it doesn't mean it's a bullish sign, on a contrary it could be bearish as there is no movement whatsoever and just preparing for a long crypto winter by holding their bitcoins.

[fzkto]

I think the growth in the number of wallets with a small number of bitcoins suggests that their owners expect bitcoin to grow in the future, but it does not suggest that bitcoin will start growing any time soon. I also think that this analysis does not suggest that such wallets can be a split of larger amounts. I like glassnode's analytics, but it's aimed at the long term. For example they have been mentioning wallet growth for a long time, both during bitcoin's rise and during the fall.

[Sterbens]

The upside potential is always there, and we only need a short time to see more massive growth. So do not be surprised if the Bullish season is now happening again. However, it is not entirely certain. Due to several other potentials, it is easy to try to manipulate the price. As with other factors where adoption is now coming, starting from Ukraine which has opened up space for crypto, especially Bitcoin, then US policies which he says will not complicate crypto policy at the time of the economic court parliament.

[Jating]

Data is inconclusive, we may have the same data in a bull run just like last year and it seems to reappear again. The only hint is that (a) the increased is due to investors buying cheap bitcoin and then not selling them short term (b) speculators buying them at cheap price and then selling them when the opportunity to make quick money is there, i.e buying at $30k level and then selling them at. $45k.

[South Park]

The data is pretty obvious, more and more bitcoin enthusiast just wanted to hold and save and doesn't want to trade and they could be accmulating at this time period. But it doesn't mean it's a bullish sign, on a contrary it could be bearish as there is no movement whatsoever and just preparing for a long crypto winter by holding their bitcoins.

The data can always be interpreted in multiple ways as we do not know the reason why people are deciding to hold their coins on their own wallets, as you state they could just be preparing themselves for a crypto winter and they do not see the point of using exchanges, they could be preparing themselves for a bull run and they just wanted to hold their coins, or maybe they were just Russian traders that were afraid their accounts will get confiscated and decided to get away from exchanges for the time being.

[Ararbermas]

The data seems showing that long term investor still didn't dump their bitcoin, and perhaps that orange line is the proof that they still keep adding more when the price of bitcoin is going down because TBH the data of shorterm is really bearish but when it comes long term it seems there's no changes despite of the situation and still showing a good trend.

So IMO probably not yet, i mean we need to analyse the market more especially in different frames to see the real potential of bitcoin this year.  And that first image isn't a strong evidence as long as there's no sign in short term as well. Just saying

[adaseb]

Right now all eyes are mostly on the stock indices. What the stock market does crypto will follow. So the question is what is the stock market looking at right now.

It’s mostly CPI and fed rate increases. So far we had our first increase and the market finished bullish. This is generally bad for markets but since it wasn’t 50bps the markets responded well. So we need to look into future prints. If there are any surprises it can crash the markets.

Second is the CPI. If we get a bad figure for April like 10% then many will invest in assets like Gold or Bitcoin as we have seen in the past. However keep in mind that the way this is going it looks like we might get a recession soon.

[Kemarit]

^^ And also history shows that April is an ugly month for Bitcoin so I don't see any bullish momentum despite the data that is being presented here.

On the other hand, as you have said, crypto most of the time follow stock movement. And stock is not doing very well as well, indicating that we might be in the bearish trend as we enter next month or even the rest of the year.

[Fundamentals Of]

Of course if we are in a bearish season, the next thing to happen is a bullish season. It is this simple cycle that rules the crypto market and other markets. But is there any more space for further decline in prices? Yes, there is. The price has been rising and falling in $40,000. There is like a volleyball happening right now and $40,000 is the net. Sometimes the price crosses above, sometimes it goes down lower.

The supply decline in centralized exchanges could simply suggest the withdrawal of many from the wrong storage. That's been strongly suggested recently.

[Reatim]

On-chain data on glassnode shows:
Shocking bitcoin supply on centralized exchange, less and fewer bitcoins are stored and traded on CEX exchange.
The number of holders from 1-10 BTC has increased a lot (orange line) in the past 2 weeks.
The market has endured more than 4 months of decline, are we preparing for a new bullish season?

4 months of declined ? I'm not sure if this is true because we even have increasing in December but of course lower than what November bring as it is ATH .

But looking for another Bullrun>? or Bullish season is not yet confirmed because what we have to do is to be ready to what will come here.

but I must be relieve because I hold my coins now and maybe for long term perhaps.

[Poker Player]

Shocking bitcoin supply on centralized exchange, less and fewer bitcoins are stored and traded on CEX exchange.
The number of holders from 1-10 BTC has increased a lot (orange line) in the past 2 weeks.
The market has endured more than 4 months of decline, are we preparing for a new bullish season?

I remember in the last 6 months hearing news like that several times just before the price dropped.   

Chain analysis can only help us get a good grasp at how supply moves; but it doesn't give us a clear picture of the potential demand — which is what actually mostly matters when talking about markets. Can't really have accurate expectations with supply alone.

Sure, that's the problem with taking a single statistic as the sole factor in determining price increase or decrease.

A new bull season 5 months after reaching the last ATH? I understand that during a price increase, many begin to believe that this will always be the case, but let's be realistic. The market must someday enter a long crypto winter, there is no eternal growth. Yes, Glassnode is constantly reminding you that exchange wallet balances are declining, but we have one more metric to consider, which is the unrealized losses of investors who are under water for a long time.
...
Despite the fact that long-term investors are in no hurry to sell their coins, most of the coins of short-term investors are at a loss, which is $ 2,500,000. And as you know, it is short-term investors who have the most selling pressure, so I would not be so happy about the new bullrun, since not all weak hands sold their coins.

Good analysis. While we can never know for sure, I think you and I agree that it is quite unlikely that we will go over $69K this cycle. I remember after the January 2018 price drop that there was a lot of analysis justifying why the Bitcoin price was going to rise again and surpass $20K, which was true, but 4 years later. The current situation looks like the same thing. We will surpass $70K but around 2025 unless we have some very bullish events for Bitcoin before then, like some major country implementing El Salvador type legislation or the world's largest capitalization companies announcing they are buying Bitcoin for their reserves.

[Beerwizzard]

I remember in the last 6 months hearing news like that several times just before the price dropped.   

These news have to be analyzed together with another indicators. It might be that people are gathering their BTC on exchanges in order to dump them. And once the price started to move down another people that hold  their crypto on exchanges may consider selling their coins. Have no idea why someone may consider growing amount of holders on centralized exchanges as a positive sign.

^^ And also history shows that April is an ugly month for Bitcoin so I don't see any bullish momentum despite the data that is being presented here.

On the other hand, as you have said, crypto most of the time follow stock movement. And stock is not doing very well as well, indicating that we might be in the bearish trend as we enter next month or even the rest of the year.

So you wanna say crypto got seasonality?

[Taskford]

I remember in the last 6 months hearing news like that several times just before the price dropped.   

These news have to be analyzed together with another indicators. It might be that people are gathering their BTC on exchanges in order to dump them. And once the price started to move down another people that hold  their crypto on exchanges may consider selling their coins. Have no idea why someone may consider growing amount of holders on centralized exchanges as a positive sign.

That is normal cycle for people who do trades for short term especially huge whales who want to have quick profit from small movements that's why we need to be vigilant especially if we are not a whale since some movements can be consider as bull trap so better be aware on some manipulative tricks made by whales and mainstream to avoid being a bag holder.

[FanEagle]

These news have to be analyzed together with another indicators. It might be that people are gathering their BTC on exchanges in order to dump them. And once the price started to move down another people that hold  their crypto on exchanges may consider selling their coins. Have no idea why someone may consider growing amount of holders on centralized exchanges as a positive sign.

That is normal cycle for people who do trades for short term especially huge whales who want to have quick profit from small movements that's why we need to be vigilant especially if we are not a whale since some movements can be consider as bull trap so better be aware on some manipulative tricks made by whales and mainstream to avoid being a bag holder.

That is something people could only understand when they have been in crypto for a long enough time. These huge movements people predict, or even see ends up being a regular Tuesday for all of us. Ignore all of it and you will be able to see the long term and how impactful bitcoin could be to our regular lives.

I personally believe that we should not be shocked at the current situation, it is something that is a bit more careful and a bit more profitable in the long run for sure. If you want to invest into crypto, you gotta accept that there will be moments when you can be 10x and there will be moments where it will be 50% down as well, just carry on like nothing happened and do not be shocked.

[Johnyz]

Many are just holding Bitcoin right now hoping for the price to rise again, that’s a good chart but still not a guarantee for a bigger rise in the coming days, still need a good confirmation. The market is on a big green candles today, hoping that this is the start of a great recovery so we can see more green candles, this should be the next cycle, its about time to rise and hope that Bitcoin will lead us to that.

[gantez]

Many are just holding Bitcoin right now hoping for the price to rise again, that’s a good chart but still not a guarantee for a bigger rise in the coming days, still need a good confirmation. The market is on a big green candles today, hoping that this is the start of a great recovery so we can see more green candles, this should be the next cycle, its about time to rise and hope that Bitcoin will lead us to that.

The price has stayed up for this week and I think that can be positive for recovery but that will also depend on the closing for the month which is the ending of the first quarter. Today has more promising that maybe $40,000 may be the the support level and now we can look forward for $45k by the next week.

[STT]

 BTC does appear bullish but it also has to develop to really move as much as people are hoping.   I do think we can move on from the range we saw this year so far.  Just the last few days again its been building and moving past the 50 day average.  When we close this weekly bar now and its positive that will help build the larger case.
  My take for now is we have to do battle around the 200 day average and similar longer term pricing, thats not that far away so dont expect too much too soon and we'll be ok.   We've risen enough now that the speculators who borrow to do so will sell into any weakness, so it will take time imo.