Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions

[swogerino]

EIP-5133 updated to change block adjustment to 700,000 blocks. Devs are now targeting mid-Sep for the merge as stated in the edited EIP.

When we will reach near that block I am pretty confident that the devs will target the merge for some more months later.It will be edited again and as a bare minimum I predict that block to be real maybe June 2023 as the earliest or early 2024 as the latest if it will ever be implemented.

A lot is being done for real in the Ethereum Network but I think we will still have Ethereum mining for a minimum of one year,one a pessimistic note though we may have it until the end of this year.

[sxemini]

late 2024 - 2025 not earlier, the devs wait for the start of the next bullrun and most asics have 6gb ram and this is enough for mining until 2024 

[edgycorner]

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #7 to take place next week.
2) Sepolia testnet beacon chain to also launch next week, TTD/merge the week after.

So Sepolia testnet could be done by Jul 1 with Goerli to follow after. Since Ropsten was done Jun 8, Sepolia planned for Jul 1, if the same one month spacing is followed Goerli could be done by start of Aug. So mainnet could be in Sep.pda

Also, EIP-5133's 700,000 block adjustment to the difficulty bomb offset has been accepted and implemented in code. Three execution layer clients already have updated code releases, fourth client to release by today or tomorrow. This offset corresponds to an approx 3.5 month adjustment and means the ~15 sec block times being experienced now will instead occur by the end of Sep.

Thanks again for the constant updates. I have been busy with college and work lately, so can't keep a track of the merge. I used to check Tim Beiko's tweets for updates when I was active on Twitter, but now I just check this thread and your replies especially.

According to odds, there's a 50% chance of merge coming in September.

I sold my 1.5-years old 3080s too at MSRP last month. Now they are going for half the price lol

I'm glad I sold 15 or so video cards this week at MSRP prices too. I bought the RTX 3060's for $570, made $120 of mining profit on each one, then sold them for $300 net. That is a loss, but it could be much worse. They make 50 cents of profit/day now, plus my power cost will rise from 8 cents to 10 cents. Not worth it. I'll wait until the big crash, then I can likely buy back these RTX 3060's for just $170.

indeed. This bloodshed will turn many devs into Judas. People think differently when it's about survival.

I'm a developer and I'm not afraid at all. The most successful crypto companies were started during the bear market. They already built the technology by the time the bull market started, so they were prepared for the massive influx of new users. I remember creating a Coinbase account back in 2016, seeing the website improve, then seeing them handling all the new users in 2017-2018 effortlessly. But I don't use Coinbase anymore.

Given how so many projects are already failing under the stress. ETH can suffer the same fate if there's a bug in any major client. This merge can become very scary with the potential of destroying the whole crypto sphere.
Devs definitely want the merge, but they will betray the timeline for the security of ETH. They would want to be extra sure, now more than ever.

Let's wait for the gray glacier now, that update will provide a good answer to WEN MERGE question. For now, it seems to be mid-September(refer to cudapop's reply for the particulars)

[FP91G]

Or maybe the fall in the price of ethereum before the merge will be a good opportunity for investors to buy ethereum from miners and holders, because then it will be much less on the POS algorithm.Lido Staked Ether STETH is cheaper than Ethereum, and after the merger, 1 STETH will be exchanged for 1 ETH.

[Coinfarm ventures]

This merge can become very scary with the potential of destroying the whole crypto sphere.
Devs definitely want the merge, but they will betray the timeline for the security of ETH. They would want to be extra sure, now more than ever.

By 'crypto' are you including Bitcoin? I still think even if ETH completely fell apart Luna-style, BTC will still live on and in the next bull market 90% of investors would focus on BTC instead of these altcoins. It would only help Bitcoin in the long run.

[sp_]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

[swogerino]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

Waiting for the difficulty of it,the Ethereum network to adjust to it,or said in other words,seeing a lot of people shutting down their operation while the others who will continue to mine at a loss maybe,will keep collecting more and more of the coin they receive the payout from mining.So far it is not materializing but I think it will do in the next couple of days.Difficulty still well above that 13.5 P but I am sure we will see that below 12 or even further below that which will make the people who continue mining getting generous mining rewards daily.

That is my comment for Eth below 1000 .

[edgycorner]

Or maybe the fall in the price of ethereum before the merge will be a good opportunity for investors to buy ethereum from miners and holders, because then it will be much less on the POS algorithm.Lido Staked Ether STETH is cheaper than Ethereum, and after the merger, 1 STETH will be exchanged for 1 ETH.

Hopefully, it won't fail like Luna lol
but yes, buying stETH at a discount seems like a better choice if you want to hold for long.

This merge can become very scary with the potential of destroying the whole crypto sphere.
Devs definitely want the merge, but they will betray the timeline for the security of ETH. They would want to be extra sure, now more than ever.

By 'crypto' are you including Bitcoin? I still think even if ETH completely fell apart Luna-style, BTC will still live on and in the next bull market 90% of investors would focus on BTC instead of these altcoins. It would only help Bitcoin in the long run.

but too many things rely on ETH(like tether). That's where my concern comes from.

ETH bellow $1000 today...

damn, $50M ETH liquidated in the last 24 hours
let's see how it will impact the devs

[FP91G]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

Waiting for the difficulty of it,the Ethereum network to adjust to it,or said in other words,seeing a lot of people shutting down their operation while the others who will continue to mine at a loss maybe,will keep collecting more and more of the coin they receive the payout from mining.So far it is not materializing but I think it will do in the next couple of days.Difficulty still well above that 13.5 P but I am sure we will see that below 12 or even further below that which will make the people who continue mining getting generous mining rewards daily.

That is my comment for Eth below 1000 .

When to buy Ethereum?
I do not think that miners will immediately turn off their mining farms, because there are 3-4 months left until the end of mining. For example, I will wait for this event and I will mine, maybe it will be delayed until next year.

[swogerino]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

Waiting for the difficulty of it,the Ethereum network to adjust to it,or said in other words,seeing a lot of people shutting down their operation while the others who will continue to mine at a loss maybe,will keep collecting more and more of the coin they receive the payout from mining.So far it is not materializing but I think it will do in the next couple of days.Difficulty still well above that 13.5 P but I am sure we will see that below 12 or even further below that which will make the people who continue mining getting generous mining rewards daily.

That is my comment for Eth below 1000 .

When to buy Ethereum?
I do not think that miners will immediately turn off their mining farms, because there are 3-4 months left until the end of mining. For example, I will wait for this event and I will mine, maybe it will be delayed until next year.

I am talking about the big farms not small operators like us who only have GPU mining rigs,those huge farms with expensive electricity cannot afford to continue mining at a loss,not all of them but some of them,if those farms are shut down then it is only normal that difficulty to come down dramatically.So far it is not happening and I am amazed seeing it well over 14 P right now but I know that after a couple of days in bear market when price of Ethereum to reach even lower then the difficulty will be down.It will take some time to adjust but I am sure it will eventually and that is great for the miners who will stay online.That is my point.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I am talking about the big farms not small operators like us who only have GPU mining rigs,those huge farms with expensive electricity cannot afford to continue mining at a loss,not all of them but some of them,if those farms are shut down then it is only normal that difficulty to come down dramatically

Large farms tend to have the lowest power cost, plenty of capital to keep their doors open and worst of all, have difficulty selling their farm or equipment. Here in the U.S., mega-miners like RIOT would have to pay depreciation recapture tax of 21% if they sell their equipment, on top of the costs of selling in such bulk quantities. It would cost them millions in labor to even pull out the miners and list them for sale. That's why I said last month that if BTC went to $5k, the really big farms would just shut down like an Egyptian tomb until price recovers to a point where revenue pays for power. Worst case, they declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy and some investor swoops in to buy the facility. The miners will always keep mining, thus the difficulty won't collapse like it did in the past (at least for SHA-256).

It will take some time to adjust but I am sure it will eventually

I feel like for GPU coins, we are in October 2018 where price was down 80% from ATH, the network diff just started to fall, but it took until March 2019 for the real selloff of video cards to be complete. Difficulty ended up being half of the 2018 peak, but price was only one-eighth of the 2018 peak.

[bitquad]

I doubt that. A RTX 3090 has 24 GB RAM. It is sought after for 3D rendering applications.

The big enterprise megacorps that build 3D rendering farms tend to only buy new hardware, even if the price-to-performance ratio sucks. The extra capital cost is tiny compared to the labor cost of six figure technicians & developers. These companies need warranty support as well. At worst, they will buy last-gen Quadros or RTX 4090's.

The ideal market for these used RTX 3090's would be somebody like Linus Tech Tips or a scrappy AI research startup who needs model training for cheap. These types of companies won't amount to enough demand to buy millions of RTX 3090's.

Therefore I'm sticking to my $500 prediction.

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

Thank you for the constant updates on the devs. I would award you merit but sadly I don't have enough.

The market for RTX3090 rendering would be DAZ3D. It provides amazing performance with IRAY. Go check out the DAZ3D site. People are spending tons of money to buy 3D characters, clothing, accessories etc. These people would love to get their hands on a RTX3090 because the 24GB RAM allows you to load more figures and props etc. and render with more textures. Essentially you can have bigger scenes with larger textures and render them with IRAY. I have used a 1080 TI with IRAY and unfortunately the 11GB RAM only goes so far. Then when you do the final render the 1080 TI sits idle while the CPU is rendering in IRAY and taking a lot of time compared to the 1080 TI.

https://www.daz3d.com/

[Coinfarm ventures]

The market for RTX3090 rendering would be DAZ3D

How much volume would that be? I don't think 3D rendering artists will be able to absorb the deluge of millions of RTX 3090's. If the pool of buyers is small, which I expect, prices will be cheap.

[edgycorner]

I am talking about the big farms not small operators like us who only have GPU mining rigs,those huge farms with expensive electricity cannot afford to continue mining at a loss,not all of them but some of them,if those farms are shut down then it is only normal that difficulty to come down dramatically

Large farms tend to have the lowest power cost, plenty of capital to keep their doors open and worst of all, have difficulty selling their farm or equipment. Here in the U.S., mega-miners like RIOT would have to pay depreciation recapture tax of 21% if they sell their equipment, on top of the costs of selling in such bulk quantities. It would cost them millions in labor to even pull out the miners and list them for sale. That's why I said last month that if BTC went to $5k, the really big farms would just shut down like an Egyptian tomb until price recovers to a point where revenue pays for power. Worst case, they declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy and some investor swoops in to buy the facility. The miners will always keep mining, thus the difficulty won't collapse like it did in the past (at least for SHA-256).

+1
This market will discourage small miners and not the big ones. You can still squeeze a tiny bit of profit, but it won't be enough incentive for someone with only a couple of GPUs. They would rather sell because the price will only drop.

Network difficulty went down by like 10% in the past 3-4 days 
https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_network_hash_rate

It will only go down, but the price might climb again. So yea, your prediction about Price v Difficulty might turn out to be correct too.

[philipma1957]

 Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

[Salamande]

Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

 

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh... quiet...

[FloppyPurpleGherkin]

I was GPU mining from 2014 onwards.. 2 years before ETH was born.. you know what? there was tons of coins to mine.. Yes ETH holds most the hash power now but I'm sure it will be fine when ETH goes POS.. It will be like 2015

[swogerino]

Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

Not only that but even the difficulty has gone from 12.79 P the lowest in these last couple of days to near 15 P which is currently at 14.74 P and this only shows no one is turning off their rigs,small or big miners are continuing to mine.I am continuing to mine also and I have also plan B to switch my rigs to Ethereum Classic if Ethereum goes PoS for real during this year (personally I believe that would be the dumbest move the Ethereum developers can make but who am I to judge).

I was hoping for the difficulty to further got down below the 12.5 P level but the price of Ethereum recovered somehow together with the difficulty making it more difficult and smaller daily rewards for miners but who cares as long as we keep collecting small amounts of crypto every day.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I was GPU mining from 2014 onwards.. 2 years before ETH was born.. you know what? there was tons of coins to mine.. Yes ETH holds most the hash power now but I'm sure it will be fine when ETH goes POS.. It will be like 2015

Back to the times when DASH was called 'Darkcoin'

[edgycorner]

Not only that but even the difficulty has gone from 12.79 P the lowest in these last couple of days to near 15 P which is currently at 14.74 P and this only shows no one is turning off their rigs,small or big miners are continuing to mine.I am continuing to mine also and I have also plan B to switch my rigs to Ethereum Classic if Ethereum goes PoS for real during this year (personally I believe that would be the dumbest move the Ethereum developers can make but who am I to judge).

According to ethscan, the difficulty has only gone down in the past couple of days.

I was GPU mining from 2014 onwards.. 2 years before ETH was born.. you know what? there was tons of coins to mine.. Yes ETH holds most the hash power now but I'm sure it will be fine when ETH goes POS.. It will be like 2015

Yes, there will always be tons of coins to mine with GPU. But it won't be profitable in almost 98% of cases. The rest of 2%, will only give you cents per day on a high-end GPU.  
The space will be left with enthusiasts and hobbyists.

Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!