Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions

[edgycorner]

Merge is going to happen sooner than later, you can follow the major events here: wenmerge.com

It all depends on one question,
When will devs be confident enough to push the merge?

For this^ to happen
>All shadowforks must pass without any major bugs.
>Public Testnets should merge without any bugs


We have been through 4 shadowforks, and all of them went through successfully.
They have planned a 5th shadowfork(possibly final) for 20th may.

Lets dedicate this thread to the discussion of merge, the day when GPU mining will be officially dead(forever?)


My estimate for now: Merge in August 2022

Place your bets here : https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos

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[edgycorner]

13/05/2022 Updates:

Shadowfork 4 was a success, except for minor bugs with erigon.
Another shadowfork planned for next week
Source: https://twitter.com/parithosh_j/status/1524767841773363200

There's a dev meeting scheduled for today.
Tune into the meeting at 1400 UTC(1 hr from now): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFxkGdPv4F8

Devs meeting has been concluded.
Major point from the meeting:
->They are going to merge Ropsten chain on 8th June.
->They didn't talk about the difficulty bomb at all(surprising).
->There were a few voices rasied to delay Ropsten merge till 15th, but majority of devs wanted to get it done earlier. Hence, 8th of June.

My conclusion from today's meeting and how it effects the merge:
  Difficulty bomb has been predicted for 15th June 2022. We definitely aren't going to merge mainnet by 15th June 2022. So they are going to delay the bomb.  It's going to be the final delay(unless they stumble across some major issue during testnet merge).

This delay will be in accordance with mainnet merge date(i.e. whichever date devs are confident with). Judging by how the development is going, it will be a delay of 2 months from June 15th. So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

[sxemini]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

[edgycorner]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

Shadowfork results says otherwise tho. Many devs are confident that we will witness the merge very soon. Unless you have some insider info   

I do understand your skeptical outlook tho(their history is tainted when it comes to merge wen).

I had my share of doubts too, until I started following the updates more closely. This time we have shadowforks, which is a copy of mainnet itself. And they have merged 4 copies of mainnet till now with a few minor bugs.
I am very confident with my findings and conclusion.

[Pterosaur]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

When history repeats itself too many times there will come a time where things will work out differently, just because the merge have failed so many times doesn't mean it will keep failing, its when you least expected that the impossible will become possible, so do not sleep on the idea that PoS isn't coming to ETH.

[philipma1957]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

Shadowfork results says otherwise tho. Many devs are confident that we will witness the merge very soon. Unless you have some insider info   

I do understand your skeptical outlook tho(their history is tainted when it comes to merge wen).

I had my share of doubts too, until I started following the updates more closely. This time we have shadowforks, which is a copy of mainnet itself. And they have merged 4 copies of mainnet till now with a few minor bugs.
I am very confident with my findings and conclusion.

After the luna ust disasters. pos will be put off for this year. unless eth crashs to sub 1000 usd.

If eth floats in the 1800-2500 price range or higher going pos is not happening.

they are simply not taking the chance of tanking the market like we just saw with luna ust.


if eth moons to 5000-9000 they will likely do nothing. for the same reasons.

but if eth crashes to 700 we will see the switch to pos asap.

we just saw that a garbage shit coin combo of luna/ust crashed and burned dragging the market with it.

eth is not going to do this.

they need only wait for a solid price drop to say we will rescue eth and go pos.

till then nothing. okay

[Coinfarm ventures]

After the luna ust disasters. pos will be put off for this year. unless eth crashs to sub 1000 usd.

If eth floats in the 1800-2500 price range or higher going pos is not happening.

they are simply not taking the chance of tanking the market like we just saw with luna ust.

if eth moons to 5000-9000 they will likely do nothing. for the same reasons.

but if eth crashes to 700 we will see the switch to pos asap.

we just saw that a garbage shit coin combo of luna/ust crashed and burned dragging the market with it.

eth is not going to do this.

they need only wait for a solid price drop to say we will rescue eth and go pos.

till then nothing. okay

[edgycorner]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year  

Shadowfork results says otherwise tho. Many devs are confident that we will witness the merge very soon. Unless you have some insider info    

I do understand your skeptical outlook tho(their history is tainted when it comes to merge wen).

I had my share of doubts too, until I started following the updates more closely. This time we have shadowforks, which is a copy of mainnet itself. And they have merged 4 copies of mainnet till now with a few minor bugs.
I am very confident with my findings and conclusion.

After the luna ust disasters. pos will be put off for this year. unless eth crashs to sub 1000 usd.

If eth floats in the 1800-2500 price range or higher going pos is not happening.

they are simply not taking the chance of tanking the market like we just saw with luna ust.


if eth moons to 5000-9000 they will likely do nothing. for the same reasons.

but if eth crashes to 700 we will see the switch to pos asap.

we just saw that a garbage shit coin combo of luna/ust crashed and burned dragging the market with it.

eth is not going to do this.

they need only wait for a solid price drop to say we will rescue eth and go pos.

till then nothing. okay

Switching to POS does come with huge risk. The market may be a factor in their decision making.

But what excuses can they give once everything is developed, tested, and concluded as working.  They can't stall it forever without any real reason.

[sp_]

Switching to POS does come with huge risk. The market may be a factor in their decision making.
But what excuses can they give once everything is developed, tested, and concluded as working.

Nasdaq has dropped more than 25% this year, and alot of investors will sell once the locked stakable coins are released.
Moving to POS would probobly destroy the price of the coin..

They can't stall it forever without any real reason.

They have been stalling since 2017 and can stall some more.  No date has been promised yet.

[philipma1957]

I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below

“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.

The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.

We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.

We will assess  when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “

yada yada yada. bla bla bla.


below is my opinion

The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.

Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.


I see no reason that eth pos is better than  luna/ust

and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.

[OgNasty]

I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below

“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.

The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.

We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.

We will assess  when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “

yada yada yada. bla bla bla.


below is my opinion

The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.

Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.


I see no reason that eth pos is better than  luna/ust

and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.

I'd have to say that your opinion sounds like it's coming from someone who is mining ETH right now. 

I don't see how switching to PoS relates ETH to Luna/UST.  The issues are so far apart I'm surprised you'd make that connection.  While PoS certainly sucks and ETH will be weaker as a result, comparing it to the obvious collapse of a ponzi scheme is a bit far fetched.  More likely ETH will begin to lose market share as miners move on to the next shiny thing to make a profit from.  I do think people will be a bit shocked when they realize that ETH got a lot of it's value from giving away coins to miners who then supported the infrastructure to add value to their mining rewards.  There's a lot of hardware out there that will be looking for work, literally...  Ravencoin to the moon? 

[FP91G]

I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below

“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.

The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.

We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.

We will assess  when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “

yada yada yada. bla bla bla.


below is my opinion

The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.

Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.


I see no reason that eth pos is better than  luna/ust

and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.

Does the ethereum development team have their own stablecoin?
Speculators have created many different derivatives and stablecoins backed by other useless altcoins. This is probably a message for everyone not to use dubious stablecoins.

[cudapop]

... So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

Why Aug 15?

There are 3 public testnets: Ropsten, Sepolia, Goerli.

In the previous core dev calls they were planning 2 weeks per testnet. In the latest core dev call they set a date for Ropsten merge on Jun 8. Add two weeks and you get Jun 22 for the 2nd testnet. Add another two weeks and you get Jul 6 for the 3rd (and final) testnet. Add a further two weeks and you get Jul 20 when they can do Mainnet.

This is all assuming no issues with the testnet merges.

So why did you go up to Aug 15?

[FirmWars]

Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.

[edgycorner]

... So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

Why Aug 15?

Due to difficulty bomb.
Devs are going to delay it for 2 months(minimum and optimal situation).
Difficulty bomb is a crucial part of migration. For protection from miners(bifurcation through 51% attack).

[FP91G]

This delay will be in accordance with mainnet merge date(i.e. whichever date devs are confident with). Judging by how the development is going, it will be a delay of 2 months from June 15th. So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

If the developers indicated quarter 3-4, then the end of mining may occur much later. Miners cannot influence this event, but the main thing now is not to buy expensive video cards, because there will be difficulties with their payback.

[Pendrak]

Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.

Here,

[sp_]

Ethereum goes pos, or Death of USDT and the clones and coinbase.

my prediction

[adaseb]

I also listened in the past to those devs and they are confident one day of making the merge and then next week they are saying there are issues and needs to be delayed.

I know it won’t be in June. Honestly that’s only 2 months from now which is not possible. So maybe earliest Aug however they will most likely run into more issues as the day becomes closer.

[batsonxl]

Personally i will never again listen news or social media. i learnt it in 2018.