Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions

[edgycorner]

Merge is going to happen sooner than later, you can follow the major events here: wenmerge.com

It all depends on one question,
When will devs be confident enough to push the merge?

For this^ to happen
>All shadowforks must pass without any major bugs.
>Public Testnets should merge without any bugs


We have been through 4 shadowforks, and all of them went through successfully.
They have planned a 5th shadowfork(possibly final) for 20th may.

Lets dedicate this thread to the discussion of merge, the day when GPU mining will be officially dead(forever?)


My estimate for now: Merge in August 2022

Place your bets here : https://polymarket.com/market-group/ethereum-merge-pos

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[edgycorner]

13/05/2022 Updates:

Shadowfork 4 was a success, except for minor bugs with erigon.
Another shadowfork planned for next week
Source: https://twitter.com/parithosh_j/status/1524767841773363200

There's a dev meeting scheduled for today.
Tune into the meeting at 1400 UTC(1 hr from now): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFxkGdPv4F8

Devs meeting has been concluded.
Major point from the meeting:
->They are going to merge Ropsten chain on 8th June.
->They didn't talk about the difficulty bomb at all(surprising).
->There were a few voices rasied to delay Ropsten merge till 15th, but majority of devs wanted to get it done earlier. Hence, 8th of June.

My conclusion from today's meeting and how it effects the merge:
  Difficulty bomb has been predicted for 15th June 2022. We definitely aren't going to merge mainnet by 15th June 2022. So they are going to delay the bomb.  It's going to be the final delay(unless they stumble across some major issue during testnet merge).

This delay will be in accordance with mainnet merge date(i.e. whichever date devs are confident with). Judging by how the development is going, it will be a delay of 2 months from June 15th. So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

[sxemini]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

[edgycorner]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

Shadowfork results says otherwise tho. Many devs are confident that we will witness the merge very soon. Unless you have some insider info   

I do understand your skeptical outlook tho(their history is tainted when it comes to merge wen).

I had my share of doubts too, until I started following the updates more closely. This time we have shadowforks, which is a copy of mainnet itself. And they have merged 4 copies of mainnet till now with a few minor bugs.
I am very confident with my findings and conclusion.

[Pterosaur]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

When history repeats itself too many times there will come a time where things will work out differently, just because the merge have failed so many times doesn't mean it will keep failing, its when you least expected that the impossible will become possible, so do not sleep on the idea that PoS isn't coming to ETH.

[philipma1957]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year 

Shadowfork results says otherwise tho. Many devs are confident that we will witness the merge very soon. Unless you have some insider info   

I do understand your skeptical outlook tho(their history is tainted when it comes to merge wen).

I had my share of doubts too, until I started following the updates more closely. This time we have shadowforks, which is a copy of mainnet itself. And they have merged 4 copies of mainnet till now with a few minor bugs.
I am very confident with my findings and conclusion.

After the luna ust disasters. pos will be put off for this year. unless eth crashs to sub 1000 usd.

If eth floats in the 1800-2500 price range or higher going pos is not happening.

they are simply not taking the chance of tanking the market like we just saw with luna ust.


if eth moons to 5000-9000 they will likely do nothing. for the same reasons.

but if eth crashes to 700 we will see the switch to pos asap.

we just saw that a garbage shit coin combo of luna/ust crashed and burned dragging the market with it.

eth is not going to do this.

they need only wait for a solid price drop to say we will rescue eth and go pos.

till then nothing. okay

[Coinfarm ventures]

After the luna ust disasters. pos will be put off for this year. unless eth crashs to sub 1000 usd.

If eth floats in the 1800-2500 price range or higher going pos is not happening.

they are simply not taking the chance of tanking the market like we just saw with luna ust.

if eth moons to 5000-9000 they will likely do nothing. for the same reasons.

but if eth crashes to 700 we will see the switch to pos asap.

we just saw that a garbage shit coin combo of luna/ust crashed and burned dragging the market with it.

eth is not going to do this.

they need only wait for a solid price drop to say we will rescue eth and go pos.

till then nothing. okay

[edgycorner]

No merge this year or you also believe in santa claus. The history show it - we speak about PoS since 2016 or 2017 and nothing happens. I know we are closer than ever before, but no not this year  

Shadowfork results says otherwise tho. Many devs are confident that we will witness the merge very soon. Unless you have some insider info    

I do understand your skeptical outlook tho(their history is tainted when it comes to merge wen).

I had my share of doubts too, until I started following the updates more closely. This time we have shadowforks, which is a copy of mainnet itself. And they have merged 4 copies of mainnet till now with a few minor bugs.
I am very confident with my findings and conclusion.

After the luna ust disasters. pos will be put off for this year. unless eth crashs to sub 1000 usd.

If eth floats in the 1800-2500 price range or higher going pos is not happening.

they are simply not taking the chance of tanking the market like we just saw with luna ust.


if eth moons to 5000-9000 they will likely do nothing. for the same reasons.

but if eth crashes to 700 we will see the switch to pos asap.

we just saw that a garbage shit coin combo of luna/ust crashed and burned dragging the market with it.

eth is not going to do this.

they need only wait for a solid price drop to say we will rescue eth and go pos.

till then nothing. okay

Switching to POS does come with huge risk. The market may be a factor in their decision making.

But what excuses can they give once everything is developed, tested, and concluded as working.  They can't stall it forever without any real reason.

[sp_]

Switching to POS does come with huge risk. The market may be a factor in their decision making.
But what excuses can they give once everything is developed, tested, and concluded as working.

Nasdaq has dropped more than 25% this year, and alot of investors will sell once the locked stakable coins are released.
Moving to POS would probobly destroy the price of the coin..

They can't stall it forever without any real reason.

They have been stalling since 2017 and can stall some more.  No date has been promised yet.

[philipma1957]

I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below

“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.

The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.

We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.

We will assess  when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “

yada yada yada. bla bla bla.


below is my opinion

The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.

Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.


I see no reason that eth pos is better than  luna/ust

and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.

[OgNasty]

I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below

“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.

The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.

We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.

We will assess  when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “

yada yada yada. bla bla bla.


below is my opinion

The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.

Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.


I see no reason that eth pos is better than  luna/ust

and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.

I'd have to say that your opinion sounds like it's coming from someone who is mining ETH right now. 

I don't see how switching to PoS relates ETH to Luna/UST.  The issues are so far apart I'm surprised you'd make that connection.  While PoS certainly sucks and ETH will be weaker as a result, comparing it to the obvious collapse of a ponzi scheme is a bit far fetched.  More likely ETH will begin to lose market share as miners move on to the next shiny thing to make a profit from.  I do think people will be a bit shocked when they realize that ETH got a lot of it's value from giving away coins to miners who then supported the infrastructure to add value to their mining rewards.  There's a lot of hardware out there that will be looking for work, literally...  Ravencoin to the moon? 

[FP91G]

I will reword it a bit. :
they make a statement like the one below

“In light of the damage caused by the luna/ust debacle We at eth have decided to postpone the transition from pow to pos until The market stability comes back.

The entire crypto cap has dropped from 2.1 trillion to 1.3 trillion due to the damage caused by luna/ust.

We at eth a responsible organization that truly believes in the synergy of crypto currency as a wholistic group of coins realize that bad actors can rock the boat.

We will assess  when the best time to switch to pos has arrived. This means watching and seeing how the entire market survives the idiocy of luna/ust. “

yada yada yada. bla bla bla.


below is my opinion

The down side of a switch to pos and a following super crash.

Out weighs any upside for eth switching to pos.


I see no reason that eth pos is better than  luna/ust

and it will very likely do exactly what luna/ust just did.

Does the ethereum development team have their own stablecoin?
Speculators have created many different derivatives and stablecoins backed by other useless altcoins. This is probably a message for everyone not to use dubious stablecoins.

[cudapop]

... So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

Why Aug 15?

There are 3 public testnets: Ropsten, Sepolia, Goerli.

In the previous core dev calls they were planning 2 weeks per testnet. In the latest core dev call they set a date for Ropsten merge on Jun 8. Add two weeks and you get Jun 22 for the 2nd testnet. Add another two weeks and you get Jul 6 for the 3rd (and final) testnet. Add a further two weeks and you get Jul 20 when they can do Mainnet.

This is all assuming no issues with the testnet merges.

So why did you go up to Aug 15?

[FirmWars]

Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.

[edgycorner]

... So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

Why Aug 15?

Due to difficulty bomb.
Devs are going to delay it for 2 months(minimum and optimal situation).
Difficulty bomb is a crucial part of migration. For protection from miners(bifurcation through 51% attack).

[FP91G]

This delay will be in accordance with mainnet merge date(i.e. whichever date devs are confident with). Judging by how the development is going, it will be a delay of 2 months from June 15th. So 15th of August is my prediction for merge.

If the developers indicated quarter 3-4, then the end of mining may occur much later. Miners cannot influence this event, but the main thing now is not to buy expensive video cards, because there will be difficulties with their payback.

[Pendrak]

Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.

Here,

[sp_]

Ethereum goes pos, or Death of USDT and the clones and coinbase.

my prediction

[adaseb]

I also listened in the past to those devs and they are confident one day of making the merge and then next week they are saying there are issues and needs to be delayed.

I know it won’t be in June. Honestly that’s only 2 months from now which is not possible. So maybe earliest Aug however they will most likely run into more issues as the day becomes closer.

[batsonxl]

Personally i will never again listen news or social media. i learnt it in 2018.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I will still stick to my Q4 2022 prediction. The ETH developers are the 'used auto salesmen of tech'. They have delivered late on their promises 90% of the time. The problem this summer is the difficulty bomb, not PoS.

[devil2man]

Do not have to trust the various experts in the sector and the various pseudo news, the tests are well advanced but not yet perfect in my opinion the actual transition to pos will not take place before 2023

[edgycorner]

Personally i will never again listen news or social media. i learnt it in 2018.

This time it's different. Source: Trust me bro  

I will still stick to my Q4 2022 prediction. The ETH developers are the 'used auto salesmen of tech'. They have delivered late on their promises 90% of the time. The problem this summer is the difficulty bomb, not PoS.

Difficulty bomb can be defused or delayed anytime(but before 15th June). It really isn't a problem.

Do not have to trust the various experts in the sector and the various pseudo news, the tests are well advanced but not yet perfect in my opinion the actual transition to pos will not take place before 2023

That's too much extrapolation through distrust.

ETH devs are slow, true. But it's due to their thorough nature. They don't want to release a blunder and crash the crypto sphere.
This merge needs bugless clients, else we will face incidents of slashing, halted chain and even quadratic leak(where majority of your eth will literally burn and you can do nothing about it).

My money is still on August.

[adaseb]

The way the difficulty bomb works is that the block times don’t reduce times until well into the difficulty bomb. So if by Aug they are aiming for the POS, then there is a chance they might just leave the difficulty bomb in there. The times will be slower but issuance will be reduced which is what the devs want.

If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.

Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.

I agree, it took 3 months for the difficulty bomb to start to hurt my mining profit back in 2017. The bomb started exploding in early May, but it wasn't until August that revenue noticeably declined.

To me, whether or not the devs defuse the bomb is like a 'groundhog day' for PoS. If they defuse it, PoS will come later. If they don't, PoS will happen this summer.

[edgycorner]

The way the difficulty bomb works is that the block times don’t reduce times until well into the difficulty bomb. So if by Aug they are aiming for the POS, then there is a chance they might just leave the difficulty bomb in there. The times will be slower but issuance will be reduced which is what the devs want.

If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.

Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.

Nope.
Difficulty bomb is an exponential function, with 2 to the power of a 100,000 step function of block height(2^x; where x is the step function).

Right now the increasing difficulty is caused by mining(LHR unlock increased diff by like 5%), and thus it is mitigating any effect of the time bomb.

Once we reach a  block, which add another step to x. We will see a humongous increase in the difficulty.

It will be so much that any mining will be deemed useless. The chain will halt and all transactions will stop.

It's literally a bomb. It will explode within seconds, on a particular block height. Bomb will reach that height by 15th of june. By then we might notice an increase by 10 seconds, as we approach the date. The increase will be concentrated towards the end.

[cudapop]

Agenda of core dev meeting #138 (https://github.com/ethereum/pm/issues/518) had this difficulty bomb tracker listed: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/19

Their estimate was by mid-June block times would be around 15 secs (scroll down to the last post entry).

[Coinfarm ventures]

Agenda of core dev meeting #138 (https://github.com/ethereum/pm/issues/518) had this difficulty bomb tracker listed: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/19

Their estimate was by mid-June block times would be around 15 secs (scroll down to the last post entry).

Looks like the real pain will start in September, if ETH price stays constant or falls. This looks identical to the 2017 bomb explosion except with a 1 second faster block time.

[edgycorner]

Agenda of core dev ....

I followed that meeting, and included the gist of it in first reply of this thread.

We have another dev meeting today. Buckle up buckarooo

[cudapop]

I followed that meeting, and included the gist of it in first reply of this thread.

Yes, I read that, so I was surprised when you posted that you expected a +10 sec increase by June 15:

... Bomb will reach that height by 15th of june. By then we might notice an increase by 10 seconds, as we approach the date...

[adaseb]

The way the difficulty bomb works is that the block times don’t reduce times until well into the difficulty bomb. So if by Aug they are aiming for the POS, then there is a chance they might just leave the difficulty bomb in there. The times will be slower but issuance will be reduced which is what the devs want.

If we are in some deep bear market then the 30 second block times won’t make a difference because blocks won’t be full and fees might be cheap anyways. It was like this a few years back before they released an update to change the difficulty bomb because we were getting 40 second block times.

Go on etherscan and look at the graphs for block times, you will see what I am talking about.

Nope.
Difficulty bomb is an exponential function, with 2 to the power of a 100,000 step function of block height(2^x; where x is the step function).

Right now the increasing difficulty is caused by mining(LHR unlock increased diff by like 5%), and thus it is mitigating any effect of the time bomb.

Once we reach a  block, which add another step to x. We will see a humongous increase in the difficulty.

It will be so much that any mining will be deemed useless. The chain will halt and all transactions will stop.

It's literally a bomb. It will explode within seconds, on a particular block height. Bomb will reach that height by 15th of june. By then we might notice an increase by 10 seconds, as we approach the date. The increase will be concentrated towards the end.

So the difficulty bomb has been updated? So you are saying that as soon as June 15 it will immediately increase by 10 seconds?

Because before when the bomb hit you wouldn’t notice it until a few weeks and then as the month when on it started to get pretty much. And the devs just left it for some reason. So maybe now they will prevent it from happening but with the ETH devs you never know what really will happen.

[edgycorner]

Yes, I read that, so I was surprised when you posted that you expected a +10 sec increase by June 15:

According to my estimate, the difficulty will explode at block #15000000
Before reaching #15000000, there's going to be one more difficulty adjustment by the bomb equation at #14900000. Which won't be significant but will definitely delay per block time by at least 5 second or maybe even by 10 seconds. Unless the devs defuse or delay the bomb before #14900000, which can be done quite easily at anytime.

[edgycorner]

Vitalik cements my original prediction of a merge in August 
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/utqthe/vitalik_at_eth_shanghai_may_20_on_the_merge_if/

[ololajulo]

Vitalik cements my original prediction of a merge in August 
Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/EtherMining/comments/utqthe/vitalik_at_eth_shanghai_may_20_on_the_merge_if/

Vitalik upheld the launch this year but he is not sure of the predicted August. There are chances date might change if any problem comes up in the block. It actually not far from the previous estimated date of June 2022, more also the roadmap has been updated and published. I am not sure it might have much of impact on Ethereum, altcoin and overall market. Bear market has not been proven otherwise with such development however I think this could be the first in the next phase into the coming cycle

[cudapop]

More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)

Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs

Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.

So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.

If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).

[edgycorner]

More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)

Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs

Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.

So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.

If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).

I was expecting a more steep decline in block time.
They are indeed serious about pushing the merge before this coming fall.
As a result, the GPU market is already crashing. I sold my 2-year-old GPUs last week at MSRP, and now I can buy "new" AIB GPUs at a better price. Funny.

[FP91G]

More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)

Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs

Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.

So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.

If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).

Anyway, more information about the end of mining will be in July. If there are problems during testing, then you will probably have to move the difficulty bomb. Developers will probably not allow more than 25 seconds for a block, but miners will soon notice a decrease in profit.

[cudapop]

Core dev call just wrapped up, devs sound like they are no longer ok with having 20+ sec block times by Aug.

No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks in order to ensure Aug block times in the 13 sec range. They will decide on that EIP in the next core dev call.

[Coinfarm ventures]

No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks

That's not much. Only 60 days, but it's better than nothing.

[edgycorner]

Core dev call just wrapped up, devs sound like they are no longer ok with having 20+ sec block times by Aug.

No decision yet on pushing the bomb, but an EIP will be drafted to push the bomb by 400,000 blocks in order to ensure Aug block times in the 13 sec range. They will decide on that EIP in the next core dev call.

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?
According to Tim's wrap https://twitter.com/TimBeiko/status/1530281870608322560, it's going to be around a 3-month delay.
And this update will come with bellatrix hard fork, so at least one month from now.
1 month for update+3 month of delay = total 4 months of delay from today.

That's almost mid of September, my prediction of August no longer stands lol
It's probably going to be September. R.I.P to those who had money on August

Unless,,, it's really a 400,000 blockdelay(and thus 2 months and not 3). Making it August again !

[cudapop]

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?

Not yet.

In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.

[Henry_Kyle2018]

#ETH2 i guess will be sort of something very interesting.
Have you seen this certified Miner allready for the ETH2?
https://www.vminertechco.com

[edgycorner]

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?

Not yet.

In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.

wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut 

[cudapop]

wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut 

To be fair, the concern was they were not comfortable with 20+ sec block times by Aug, moving the bomb offset by 400,000 would make Aug block times stay in the 13-14 sec range and Sep block times could be in the 15-16 sec range, so if they wanted to slip the merge to Sep they'ld still be in the "comfortable" block times range. So merge could be in Aug, but could be in Sep.

[FP91G]

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?

Not yet.

In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.

haha
Ethereum developers are great pros at delay the difficulty bomb.

[philipma1957]

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?

Not yet.

In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.

wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut 

Its simple they will push it out if coin is over 2k

They will let it happen if coin is under 1k

the gray zone is 1-2k

[0verseer]

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?

Not yet.

In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.

wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut 

Its simple they will push it out if coin is over 2k

They will let it happen if coin is under 1k

the gray zone is 1-2k

If only the merge could be decided arbitrarily by the price of ETH, kek.
No, they will keep on pushing it and commit the merge between PoS testnet and mainnet. There're maybe some delays, fuds but they're hell bent on doing it, not by any price range but because the ETH has been stagnant for a while. If they keep on the delay like times before, they will hurt ETH furthermore, a self-sabotaging act.

[adaseb]

They are not going to hurt themselves if they delay it. They will say that there is some bug and they need more time and the market will give them another 6 months. It’s been 6 years delayed already. Another 6 months won’t hurt.

In a true bear market whether the fork is successful or not it won’t matter, it will go down anyways on even positive news. I remember with Bitcoin during 2014-2015 there was lots of positive developments but it kept going down anyways. News doesn’t matter in certain trending markets.

[sp_]

They should rename "Smart Contracts" to "Not so smart contracts"

[edgycorner]

There was a merge call today, like a Q&A and going over major topics before the merge
You can watch it here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qG-A5i6x6N8
Unfortunately couldn't catch it live

Major news is: They are set for a Ropsten merge, as planned in the previous call.


Odds are favouring for a merge in September now(instead of August)

[cudapop]

EIP for difficulty bomb delay has been published:

https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md

Delay has been adjusted by 500,000 blocks (approx. 2.5 months).

Targeting for The Merge to occur before mid August 2022. If it is not ready by then, the bomb can be delayed further.

[philipma1957]

Have they decided upon the block numbers already?

Not yet.

In the discussion on drafting the EIP those devs who wanted to delay the bomb were advised to simply copy the last bomb delay EIP and adjust the block offset value to add 400,000 blocks. This value may change, so we'll have to wait for the EIP to be published.

wow, that's why odds on "By 1st September" dropped from like +105 to -150
Merge is indeed coming in Agusut  

Its simple they will push it out if coin is over 2k

They will let it happen if coin is under 1k

the gray zone is 1-2k

If only the merge could be decided arbitrarily by the price of ETH, kek.
No, they will keep on pushing it and commit the merge between PoS testnet and mainnet. There're maybe some delays, fuds but they're hell bent on doing it, not by any price range but because the ETH has been stagnant for a while. If they keep on the delay like times before, they will hurt ETH furthermore, a self-sabotaging act.

It is because pos = piece of shit and death for eth.

So if they delay and eth crashes to 800 they push it forward to save eth ------ and eth dies in 1 or 2 years. their defense is at least we tried to save it.


If they  move in august with prices in the 1500-2500 range and eth craters - they crushed eth and have no defense.


If you don't agree it does not matter this is what is truth. "Or maybe it is what I believe is true."


Now the problem is Mr V.B. may actually  not give a fuck about rationality and truth. He may go contrary and follow your lead and logic. Hoping for a big pushup in price before the crash.

It will be fun to see if Mr V.B. decides to go your route as the crash of eth will truly be spectacular If he goes pos in August of 2022.




Edit:

Hmm so far he seems to be thinking delay as Sept now looks to be the month not August.

[swogerino]

They are not going to hurt themselves if they delay it. They will say that there is some bug and they need more time and the market will give them another 6 months. It’s been 6 years delayed already. Another 6 months won’t hurt.

In a true bear market whether the fork is successful or not it won’t matter, it will go down anyways on even positive news. I remember with Bitcoin during 2014-2015 there was lots of positive developments but it kept going down anyways. News doesn’t matter in certain trending markets.

I hope this is the case,everyone want to continue mining,and what would be the best case scenario is that they say in September we go PoS,only smart people will build cheap rigs like a near 400 Mhsh rig with just 2000-2200 EUR and then they say we will delay it for another 6 months,or for another year.For now the price of video cards are dropping like crazy so for the bold people who think like me it is a golden opportunity to get cheap video cards and continue mining.Hope they keep delaying it for at least summer 2023.

[edgycorner]

It is because pos = piece of shit and death for eth.

ETH was always shit. Remember when they literally deleted coins from the chain? lol
Fck Vitalik Buterin. That guy even considers child abuse less harmful than adults hooked on drugs(imagine even comparing them). I can post that tweet here, if someone's interested.

So if they delay and eth crashes to 800 they push it forward to save eth ------ and eth dies in 1 or 2 years. their defense is at least we tried to save it.


If they  move in august with prices in the 1500-2500 range and eth craters - they crushed eth and have no defense.

While I do agree with your opinion about ETH & VB, I find it hard to bargain with this one.
VB's focus has definitely shifted from the economic aspect of ETH to expanding on ETH's turning-completeness.
Now whether or not the rest of ETH devs follows the same philosophy and how much influence VB has on their position are two unknown entities.

ETH will crash if any client encounters a bug after the merge. That crash will be brutal and definitely the end of ETH.

I hope this is the case,everyone want to continue mining,and what would be the best case scenario is that they say in September we go PoS,only smart people will build cheap rigs like a near 400 Mhsh rig with just 2000-2200 EUR and then they say we will delay it for another 6 months,or for another year.For now the price of video cards are dropping like crazy so for the bold people who think like me it is a golden opportunity to get cheap video cards and continue mining.Hope they keep delaying it for at least summer 2023.

Summer 2023 is very optimistic bro
This isn't a good time to buy cards for sure. Be it for mining or gaming. We are soon getting 4000 series launch  

[Coinfarm ventures]

...

I agree with everything you said. They shouldn't have bailed out the DAO investors in 2016. ETH strayed from its original purpose of a decentralized world computer and is now just another Solana or XRP or maybe even a LUNA if the worst case happens.

With PoS it's now just a system where the rich get richer and make the rules, which is just like the legacy banking world.

I also wouldn't build any more mining rigs, especially not with video cards that aren't good at non-ETH coins, like the RTX 3090 or RX 5700. If I built rigs I would choose the RTX 3060 Ti, RTX 2070 super or RX 6800.

[sp_]

The biggest problem with Ethereum moving to POS is not the ethereum coin itself, but all the projects that use the technology of ethereum. Stablecoins are heavily depended up on security, but when you move from something 100% secure, to something uncertain it will cause an earthquake into the system.

[FP91G]

Ethereum's Ropsten test merge expected to initiate in next 48 hours
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/150450/ethereums-ropsten-test-merge-expected-to-initiate-in-next-48-hours
Today is the start of the first important test. Will you transfer some of your coins to other blockchains or are you not afraid of possible problems after the end of Ethereum mining?

[swogerino]

Ethereum's Ropsten test merge expected to initiate in next 48 hours
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/150450/ethereums-ropsten-test-merge-expected-to-initiate-in-next-48-hours
Today is the start of the first important test. Will you transfer some of your coins to other blockchains or are you not afraid of possible problems after the end of Ethereum mining?

Not afraid at all,ready to change my hash rate to Ethereum Classic for one or two months which I believe will be the time needed for new like Ethereum coin to take over the mining of video cards and also ASICS but I would prefer an ASIC resistant coin.If it doesn't happen I will still mine at a loss because by mining at a loss with Nicehash during all 2018 the amount of Bitcoin I mined was translated in great money in February 2021,I am ready to give it one more try this time to the same pattern,mining at a loss.

If Ethereum mining does not end,great news for all of us which will continue to get our daily share of cryptocurrencies by mining.

[ETHHash]

Ethereum mining will be dead forever!
Difficulty bomb will be detonated soon !

All miners who donated their hardware to the network are left with their hardware and their hardware investments.
The ETH mining will be dead forever.
There is no coin equivalent to ETH - Stop your mining soon - Sell your GPU as soon as possible.

--------

Roposten seems to be working..the last testnet..now we will follow the POS in 8/Q3:
https://twitter.com/TimBeiko?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[FP91G]

Ethereum's Ropsten test merge expected to initiate in next 48 hours
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/150450/ethereums-ropsten-test-merge-expected-to-initiate-in-next-48-hours
Today is the start of the first important test. Will you transfer some of your coins to other blockchains or are you not afraid of possible problems after the end of Ethereum mining?

Not afraid at all,ready to change my hash rate to Ethereum Classic for one or two months which I believe will be the time needed for new like Ethereum coin to take over the mining of video cards and also ASICS but I would prefer an ASIC resistant coin.If it doesn't happen I will still mine at a loss because by mining at a loss with Nicehash during all 2018 the amount of Bitcoin I mined was translated in great money in February 2021,I am ready to give it one more try this time to the same pattern,mining at a loss.

If Ethereum mining does not end,great news for all of us which will continue to get our daily share of cryptocurrencies by mining.

Ethereum can be mined on asics, and after the end of mining, these asics will mine Ethereum Classic, so the profit will be very small. There are still a couple of coins on this algorithm, but even now mining is almost unprofitable.

[cudapop]

All core dev call has just wrapped up.

Devs have decided to delay the difficulty bomb. Initial block delay adjustment is as published in the proposed EIP-5133 (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md) but the delay value may be adjusted. Fork to implement the delay is planned to go in effect around Jun 29.

Also, second testnet for merge will be Sepolia, beacon chain for Sepolia will launch around Jun 20 with merge TTD to follow around 2 weeks after.

[definevalue]

Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.

This

[crazydane]

Here's a pretty sobering article:

https://bitproit.com/gpu-mining-profitability-after-ethereum-merge/

[FP91G]

Here's a pretty sobering article:

https://bitproit.com/gpu-mining-profitability-after-ethereum-merge/

Source https://bitproit.com/

This is the best visual picture about Ethereum mining. In Ethereum mining, there are asics with a hashrate from 1 to 4 Gh/s, which will then mine Ethereum classic, and the profit of miners on video cards will quickly end.

[sp_]

This is the best visual picture about Ethereum mining. In Ethereum mining, there are asics with a hashrate from 1 to 4 Gh/s, which will then mine Ethereum classic, and the profit of miners on video cards will quickly end.

This list is incomplete. XMR, VTC, XDN.. etc. There is around 100 gpu minable coins for the gpu. Randomx has been implemented on the gpu to outperform any cpu. The only difference is that 90% of gpu mining will be done with the Team Black Miner.

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

[badbart]

This is the best visual picture about Ethereum mining. In Ethereum mining, there are asics with a hashrate from 1 to 4 Gh/s, which will then mine Ethereum classic, and the profit of miners on video cards will quickly end.

This list is incomplete. XMR, VTC, XDN.. etc. There is around 100 gpu minable coins for the gpu. Randomx has been implemented on the gpu to outperform any cpu. The only difference is that 90% of gpu mining will be done with the Team Black Miner.

Decent Randomx Performance on a gpu?  Can you provide a link?

[sp_]

Decent Randomx Performance on a gpu?  Can you provide a link?

Sure

https://github.com/sp-hash/TeamBlackMiner/releases

Just waiting for the end of Ethereum...

[edgycorner]

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

and Vitalik Buterin will be plugged into Bezos's butt(AWS) for validation lol

Anyways, GPU mining for profit will be dead for at least a year after the merge. We might shift from direct profit as an incentive to a speculative incentive. GPU owners will gamble on a coin that has the potential to moon. It will be like pre-2017 bitcoin bull run all over again when miners were never in profit, and would hodl instead. Like this farm from 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kua5B5K3I

All core dev call has just wrapped up.

Devs have decided to delay the difficulty bomb. Initial block delay adjustment is as published in the proposed EIP-5133 (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md) but the delay value may be adjusted. Fork to implement the delay is planned to go in effect around Jun 29.

Also, second testnet for merge will be Sepolia, beacon chain for Sepolia will launch around Jun 20 with merge TTD to follow around 2 weeks after.

Thanks for the update.

Odds are pretty much the same since I last checked them. Still a good chance of happening during September.
If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

[philipma1957]

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

and Vitalik Buterin will be plugged into Bezos's butt(AWS) for validation lol

Anyways, GPU mining for profit will be dead for at least a year after the merge. We might shift from direct profit as an incentive to a speculative incentive. GPU owners will gamble on a coin that has the potential to moon. It will be like pre-2017 bitcoin bull run all over again when miners were never in profit, and would hodl instead. Like this farm from 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kua5B5K3I

All core dev call has just wrapped up.

Devs have decided to delay the difficulty bomb. Initial block delay adjustment is as published in the proposed EIP-5133 (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md) but the delay value may be adjusted. Fork to implement the delay is planned to go in effect around Jun 29.

Also, second testnet for merge will be Sepolia, beacon chain for Sepolia will launch around Jun 20 with merge TTD to follow around 2 weeks after.

Thanks for the update.

Odds are pretty much the same since I last checked them. Still a good chance of happening during September.
If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

we are getting close.

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

[Coinfarm ventures]

we are getting close.

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

I can't believe I am so excited about the bloodbath in the market. Yes, I sold 80% of my video cards at a loss, but on the other hand, I gained hundreds shorting crypto stocks.

If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

We will also get to test my theory, where I predicted on Reddit back in April that the price of an RTX 3090 card would be $500 or less within 6 months after the PoS merge.



We're already most of the way there. Down $1800, only $700 left to go. Only 500-600 to go if you count private bulk sales.

[adaseb]

It’s nuts how fast it’s approaching the $1K area. I assumed the old $1400 ATH from 2017 would provide some type of relief. However it stalled a little right above that area and next day it just took a huge dump.

This reminds me of Nov 2018. People assume that the dip they buy is the bottom but it keeps dipping everyday for another month or so. Very dangerous catching any falling knives right now.

[edgycorner]

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

indeed. This bloodshed will turn many devs into Judas. People think differently when it's about survival.

We will also get to test my theory, where I predicted on Reddit back in April that the price of an RTX 3090 card would be $500 or less within 6 months after the PoS merge.

We're already most of the way there. Down $1800, only $700 left to go. Only 500-600 to go if you count private bulk sales.

I sold my 1.5-years old 3080s too at MSRP last month. Now they are going for half the price lol

[cudapop]

EIP-5133 updated to change block adjustment to 700,000 blocks. Devs are now targeting mid-Sep for the merge as stated in the edited EIP.

[coinut]

This list is incomplete. XMR, VTC, XDN.. etc. There is around 100 gpu minable coins for the gpu. Randomx has been implemented on the gpu to outperform any cpu. The only difference is that 90% of gpu mining will be done with the Team Black Miner.

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

what I have underlined is news to me. Would you share anymore detail?
also if you have a fast GPU randomx miner why would you wait until ethereum goes pos to release it? Why not be the first and release it now ? 

[Coinfarm ventures]

I sold my 1.5-years old 3080s too at MSRP last month. Now they are going for half the price lol

I'm glad I sold 15 or so video cards this week at MSRP prices too. I bought the RTX 3060's for $570, made $120 of mining profit on each one, then sold them for $300 net. That is a loss, but it could be much worse. They make 50 cents of profit/day now, plus my power cost will rise from 8 cents to 10 cents. Not worth it. I'll wait until the big crash, then I can likely buy back these RTX 3060's for just $170.

indeed. This bloodshed will turn many devs into Judas. People think differently when it's about survival.

I'm a developer and I'm not afraid at all. The most successful crypto companies were started during the bear market. They already built the technology by the time the bull market started, so they were prepared for the massive influx of new users. I remember creating a Coinbase account back in 2016, seeing the website improve, then seeing them handling all the new users in 2017-2018 effortlessly. But I don't use Coinbase anymore.

My business idea is to start a mining service where ordinary people can invest in mining with as little as $10, and can re-invest profit into more hashrate. They can buy fractions of a terahash and use whatever pool they want. The barrier to entry can be lower than having to buy an entire ASIC for $6k. If one physical farm steals the money or goes bankrupt, the hashrate can be re-routed from a different provider.

[FP91G]

https://beaconcha.in/
Where are those who want to become validators? When Ethereum was worth $4,000, there was a huge queue of applicants. I think that it is more profitable now to become a validator and wait for the price of ethereum to rise. But with such a profit, video cards will be more profitable even in a bear market.

[Coinfarm ventures]

video cards will be more profitable even in a bear market.

That's right. GPU mining is always 20%+ more profitable in a bear market compared to buying the coin, assuming the power cost is 10¢. That means you can acquire the coins for 20% cheaper.

[bitquad]

we are getting close.

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

I can't believe I am so excited about the bloodbath in the market. Yes, I sold 80% of my video cards at a loss, but on the other hand, I gained hundreds shorting crypto stocks.

If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

We will also get to test my theory, where I predicted on Reddit back in April that the price of an RTX 3090 card would be $500 or less within 6 months after the PoS merge.



We're already most of the way there. Down $1800, only $700 left to go. Only 500-600 to go if you count private bulk sales.

I doubt that. A RTX 3090 has 24 GB RAM. It is sought after for 3D rendering applications. No way will the card drop that low. If it does I'll buy them for sure. It is an amazing GPU. I have two that I bought new. Paid retail price for both - $1800.

[cudapop]

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #7 to take place next week.
2) Sepolia testnet beacon chain to also launch next week, TTD/merge the week after.

So Sepolia testnet could be done by Jul 1 with Goerli to follow after. Since Ropsten was done Jun 8, Sepolia planned for Jul 1, if the same one month spacing is followed Goerli could be done by start of Aug. So mainnet could be in Sep.

Also, EIP-5133's 700,000 block adjustment to the difficulty bomb offset has been accepted and implemented in code. Three execution layer clients already have updated code releases, fourth client to release by today or tomorrow. This offset corresponds to an approx 3.5 month adjustment and means the ~15 sec block times being experienced now will instead occur by the end of Sep.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I doubt that. A RTX 3090 has 24 GB RAM. It is sought after for 3D rendering applications.

The big enterprise megacorps that build 3D rendering farms tend to only buy new hardware, even if the price-to-performance ratio sucks. The extra capital cost is tiny compared to the labor cost of six figure technicians & developers. These companies need warranty support as well. At worst, they will buy last-gen Quadros or RTX 4090's.

The ideal market for these used RTX 3090's would be somebody like Linus Tech Tips or a scrappy AI research startup who needs model training for cheap. These types of companies won't amount to enough demand to buy millions of RTX 3090's.

Therefore I'm sticking to my $500 prediction.

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

Thank you for the constant updates on the devs. I would award you merit but sadly I don't have enough.

[swogerino]

EIP-5133 updated to change block adjustment to 700,000 blocks. Devs are now targeting mid-Sep for the merge as stated in the edited EIP.

When we will reach near that block I am pretty confident that the devs will target the merge for some more months later.It will be edited again and as a bare minimum I predict that block to be real maybe June 2023 as the earliest or early 2024 as the latest if it will ever be implemented.

A lot is being done for real in the Ethereum Network but I think we will still have Ethereum mining for a minimum of one year,one a pessimistic note though we may have it until the end of this year.

[sxemini]

late 2024 - 2025 not earlier, the devs wait for the start of the next bullrun and most asics have 6gb ram and this is enough for mining until 2024 

[edgycorner]

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #7 to take place next week.
2) Sepolia testnet beacon chain to also launch next week, TTD/merge the week after.

So Sepolia testnet could be done by Jul 1 with Goerli to follow after. Since Ropsten was done Jun 8, Sepolia planned for Jul 1, if the same one month spacing is followed Goerli could be done by start of Aug. So mainnet could be in Sep.pda

Also, EIP-5133's 700,000 block adjustment to the difficulty bomb offset has been accepted and implemented in code. Three execution layer clients already have updated code releases, fourth client to release by today or tomorrow. This offset corresponds to an approx 3.5 month adjustment and means the ~15 sec block times being experienced now will instead occur by the end of Sep.

Thanks again for the constant updates. I have been busy with college and work lately, so can't keep a track of the merge. I used to check Tim Beiko's tweets for updates when I was active on Twitter, but now I just check this thread and your replies especially.

According to odds, there's a 50% chance of merge coming in September.

I sold my 1.5-years old 3080s too at MSRP last month. Now they are going for half the price lol

I'm glad I sold 15 or so video cards this week at MSRP prices too. I bought the RTX 3060's for $570, made $120 of mining profit on each one, then sold them for $300 net. That is a loss, but it could be much worse. They make 50 cents of profit/day now, plus my power cost will rise from 8 cents to 10 cents. Not worth it. I'll wait until the big crash, then I can likely buy back these RTX 3060's for just $170.

indeed. This bloodshed will turn many devs into Judas. People think differently when it's about survival.

I'm a developer and I'm not afraid at all. The most successful crypto companies were started during the bear market. They already built the technology by the time the bull market started, so they were prepared for the massive influx of new users. I remember creating a Coinbase account back in 2016, seeing the website improve, then seeing them handling all the new users in 2017-2018 effortlessly. But I don't use Coinbase anymore.

Given how so many projects are already failing under the stress. ETH can suffer the same fate if there's a bug in any major client. This merge can become very scary with the potential of destroying the whole crypto sphere.
Devs definitely want the merge, but they will betray the timeline for the security of ETH. They would want to be extra sure, now more than ever.

Let's wait for the gray glacier now, that update will provide a good answer to WEN MERGE question. For now, it seems to be mid-September(refer to cudapop's reply for the particulars)

[FP91G]

Or maybe the fall in the price of ethereum before the merge will be a good opportunity for investors to buy ethereum from miners and holders, because then it will be much less on the POS algorithm.Lido Staked Ether STETH is cheaper than Ethereum, and after the merger, 1 STETH will be exchanged for 1 ETH.

[Coinfarm ventures]

This merge can become very scary with the potential of destroying the whole crypto sphere.
Devs definitely want the merge, but they will betray the timeline for the security of ETH. They would want to be extra sure, now more than ever.

By 'crypto' are you including Bitcoin? I still think even if ETH completely fell apart Luna-style, BTC will still live on and in the next bull market 90% of investors would focus on BTC instead of these altcoins. It would only help Bitcoin in the long run.

[sp_]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

[swogerino]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

Waiting for the difficulty of it,the Ethereum network to adjust to it,or said in other words,seeing a lot of people shutting down their operation while the others who will continue to mine at a loss maybe,will keep collecting more and more of the coin they receive the payout from mining.So far it is not materializing but I think it will do in the next couple of days.Difficulty still well above that 13.5 P but I am sure we will see that below 12 or even further below that which will make the people who continue mining getting generous mining rewards daily.

That is my comment for Eth below 1000 .

[edgycorner]

Or maybe the fall in the price of ethereum before the merge will be a good opportunity for investors to buy ethereum from miners and holders, because then it will be much less on the POS algorithm.Lido Staked Ether STETH is cheaper than Ethereum, and after the merger, 1 STETH will be exchanged for 1 ETH.

Hopefully, it won't fail like Luna lol
but yes, buying stETH at a discount seems like a better choice if you want to hold for long.

This merge can become very scary with the potential of destroying the whole crypto sphere.
Devs definitely want the merge, but they will betray the timeline for the security of ETH. They would want to be extra sure, now more than ever.

By 'crypto' are you including Bitcoin? I still think even if ETH completely fell apart Luna-style, BTC will still live on and in the next bull market 90% of investors would focus on BTC instead of these altcoins. It would only help Bitcoin in the long run.

but too many things rely on ETH(like tether). That's where my concern comes from.

ETH bellow $1000 today...

damn, $50M ETH liquidated in the last 24 hours
let's see how it will impact the devs

[FP91G]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

Waiting for the difficulty of it,the Ethereum network to adjust to it,or said in other words,seeing a lot of people shutting down their operation while the others who will continue to mine at a loss maybe,will keep collecting more and more of the coin they receive the payout from mining.So far it is not materializing but I think it will do in the next couple of days.Difficulty still well above that 13.5 P but I am sure we will see that below 12 or even further below that which will make the people who continue mining getting generous mining rewards daily.

That is my comment for Eth below 1000 .

When to buy Ethereum?
I do not think that miners will immediately turn off their mining farms, because there are 3-4 months left until the end of mining. For example, I will wait for this event and I will mine, maybe it will be delayed until next year.

[swogerino]

ETH bellow $1000 today...

Waiting for the difficulty of it,the Ethereum network to adjust to it,or said in other words,seeing a lot of people shutting down their operation while the others who will continue to mine at a loss maybe,will keep collecting more and more of the coin they receive the payout from mining.So far it is not materializing but I think it will do in the next couple of days.Difficulty still well above that 13.5 P but I am sure we will see that below 12 or even further below that which will make the people who continue mining getting generous mining rewards daily.

That is my comment for Eth below 1000 .

When to buy Ethereum?
I do not think that miners will immediately turn off their mining farms, because there are 3-4 months left until the end of mining. For example, I will wait for this event and I will mine, maybe it will be delayed until next year.

I am talking about the big farms not small operators like us who only have GPU mining rigs,those huge farms with expensive electricity cannot afford to continue mining at a loss,not all of them but some of them,if those farms are shut down then it is only normal that difficulty to come down dramatically.So far it is not happening and I am amazed seeing it well over 14 P right now but I know that after a couple of days in bear market when price of Ethereum to reach even lower then the difficulty will be down.It will take some time to adjust but I am sure it will eventually and that is great for the miners who will stay online.That is my point.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I am talking about the big farms not small operators like us who only have GPU mining rigs,those huge farms with expensive electricity cannot afford to continue mining at a loss,not all of them but some of them,if those farms are shut down then it is only normal that difficulty to come down dramatically

Large farms tend to have the lowest power cost, plenty of capital to keep their doors open and worst of all, have difficulty selling their farm or equipment. Here in the U.S., mega-miners like RIOT would have to pay depreciation recapture tax of 21% if they sell their equipment, on top of the costs of selling in such bulk quantities. It would cost them millions in labor to even pull out the miners and list them for sale. That's why I said last month that if BTC went to $5k, the really big farms would just shut down like an Egyptian tomb until price recovers to a point where revenue pays for power. Worst case, they declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy and some investor swoops in to buy the facility. The miners will always keep mining, thus the difficulty won't collapse like it did in the past (at least for SHA-256).

It will take some time to adjust but I am sure it will eventually

I feel like for GPU coins, we are in October 2018 where price was down 80% from ATH, the network diff just started to fall, but it took until March 2019 for the real selloff of video cards to be complete. Difficulty ended up being half of the 2018 peak, but price was only one-eighth of the 2018 peak.

[bitquad]

I doubt that. A RTX 3090 has 24 GB RAM. It is sought after for 3D rendering applications.

The big enterprise megacorps that build 3D rendering farms tend to only buy new hardware, even if the price-to-performance ratio sucks. The extra capital cost is tiny compared to the labor cost of six figure technicians & developers. These companies need warranty support as well. At worst, they will buy last-gen Quadros or RTX 4090's.

The ideal market for these used RTX 3090's would be somebody like Linus Tech Tips or a scrappy AI research startup who needs model training for cheap. These types of companies won't amount to enough demand to buy millions of RTX 3090's.

Therefore I'm sticking to my $500 prediction.

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

Thank you for the constant updates on the devs. I would award you merit but sadly I don't have enough.

The market for RTX3090 rendering would be DAZ3D. It provides amazing performance with IRAY. Go check out the DAZ3D site. People are spending tons of money to buy 3D characters, clothing, accessories etc. These people would love to get their hands on a RTX3090 because the 24GB RAM allows you to load more figures and props etc. and render with more textures. Essentially you can have bigger scenes with larger textures and render them with IRAY. I have used a 1080 TI with IRAY and unfortunately the 11GB RAM only goes so far. Then when you do the final render the 1080 TI sits idle while the CPU is rendering in IRAY and taking a lot of time compared to the 1080 TI.

https://www.daz3d.com/

[Coinfarm ventures]

The market for RTX3090 rendering would be DAZ3D

How much volume would that be? I don't think 3D rendering artists will be able to absorb the deluge of millions of RTX 3090's. If the pool of buyers is small, which I expect, prices will be cheap.

[edgycorner]

I am talking about the big farms not small operators like us who only have GPU mining rigs,those huge farms with expensive electricity cannot afford to continue mining at a loss,not all of them but some of them,if those farms are shut down then it is only normal that difficulty to come down dramatically

Large farms tend to have the lowest power cost, plenty of capital to keep their doors open and worst of all, have difficulty selling their farm or equipment. Here in the U.S., mega-miners like RIOT would have to pay depreciation recapture tax of 21% if they sell their equipment, on top of the costs of selling in such bulk quantities. It would cost them millions in labor to even pull out the miners and list them for sale. That's why I said last month that if BTC went to $5k, the really big farms would just shut down like an Egyptian tomb until price recovers to a point where revenue pays for power. Worst case, they declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy and some investor swoops in to buy the facility. The miners will always keep mining, thus the difficulty won't collapse like it did in the past (at least for SHA-256).

+1
This market will discourage small miners and not the big ones. You can still squeeze a tiny bit of profit, but it won't be enough incentive for someone with only a couple of GPUs. They would rather sell because the price will only drop.

Network difficulty went down by like 10% in the past 3-4 days 
https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_network_hash_rate

It will only go down, but the price might climb again. So yea, your prediction about Price v Difficulty might turn out to be correct too.

[philipma1957]

 Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

[Salamande]

Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

 

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh... quiet...

[FloppyPurpleGherkin]

I was GPU mining from 2014 onwards.. 2 years before ETH was born.. you know what? there was tons of coins to mine.. Yes ETH holds most the hash power now but I'm sure it will be fine when ETH goes POS.. It will be like 2015

[swogerino]

Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

Not only that but even the difficulty has gone from 12.79 P the lowest in these last couple of days to near 15 P which is currently at 14.74 P and this only shows no one is turning off their rigs,small or big miners are continuing to mine.I am continuing to mine also and I have also plan B to switch my rigs to Ethereum Classic if Ethereum goes PoS for real during this year (personally I believe that would be the dumbest move the Ethereum developers can make but who am I to judge).

I was hoping for the difficulty to further got down below the 12.5 P level but the price of Ethereum recovered somehow together with the difficulty making it more difficult and smaller daily rewards for miners but who cares as long as we keep collecting small amounts of crypto every day.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I was GPU mining from 2014 onwards.. 2 years before ETH was born.. you know what? there was tons of coins to mine.. Yes ETH holds most the hash power now but I'm sure it will be fine when ETH goes POS.. It will be like 2015

Back to the times when DASH was called 'Darkcoin'

[edgycorner]

Not only that but even the difficulty has gone from 12.79 P the lowest in these last couple of days to near 15 P which is currently at 14.74 P and this only shows no one is turning off their rigs,small or big miners are continuing to mine.I am continuing to mine also and I have also plan B to switch my rigs to Ethereum Classic if Ethereum goes PoS for real during this year (personally I believe that would be the dumbest move the Ethereum developers can make but who am I to judge).

According to ethscan, the difficulty has only gone down in the past couple of days.

I was GPU mining from 2014 onwards.. 2 years before ETH was born.. you know what? there was tons of coins to mine.. Yes ETH holds most the hash power now but I'm sure it will be fine when ETH goes POS.. It will be like 2015

Yes, there will always be tons of coins to mine with GPU. But it won't be profitable in almost 98% of cases. The rest of 2%, will only give you cents per day on a high-end GPU.  
The space will be left with enthusiasts and hobbyists.

Bla bla Bla
 eth mining is dead
eth mining will be dead

I am mining and mining and


mining looks good to me as of today!

[FP91G]

If you are not selling ethereum, but pay the costs with stablecoins when you sold ethereum for more than $4,000, then this is a better situation for miners who already have working mining farms. Beginners do not buy video cards and miners with expensive electricity are turned off. This will allow the old miner to get some coins before the end of mining.

[cudapop]

Core dev call just wrapped up:

1) 7th mainnet shadow fork done Wed, some non-merge issues with Erigon/Besu clients, fixes being put into place, 8th mainnet shadow fork set for two weeks from now.
2) Sepolia beacon chain live, TTD/merge targeted for Jul 6.
3) Mainnet difficulty bomb delay fork (gray glacier) still targeted for Jun 29.

[FP91G]

Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin has said he is "definitely" worried about centralization risks following The Merge, the event when the current Ethereum Mainnet merges with the beacon chain proof-of-stake (PoS) system.

The Ethereum mastermind noted that Lido Finance, the largest provider of staking services for Ethereum, where around a third of staked ETH (stETH) has been deposited, could theoretically disturb the Ethereum network post-Merge.

https://cryptonews.com/news/vitalik-buterin-confirms-post-merge-ethereum-centralization-concerns-urges-not-to-overly-catastrophize-it.htm

[Coinfarm ventures]

The Ethereum mastermind noted that Lido Finance, the largest provider of staking services for Ethereum, where around a third of staked ETH (stETH) has been deposited, could theoretically disturb the Ethereum network post-Merge.

The counterargument from the PoS folks will be:

• Mining pools can launch 51% attacks
• Miners who launch a failed 51% attack will only lose a few hours/days of hashrate while they keep all their equipment. But rogue PoS attackers risk losing all their staked coins

I'm wondering if anybody here has a good rebuttal to their claims.

Core dev call just wrapped up:

As always, we appreciate your boots-on-the-ground updates

[philipma1957]

The Ethereum mastermind noted that Lido Finance, the largest provider of staking services for Ethereum, where around a third of staked ETH (stETH) has been deposited, could theoretically disturb the Ethereum network post-Merge.

The counterargument from the PoS folks will be:

• Mining pools can launch 51% attacks
• Miners who launch a failed 51% attack will only lose a few hours/days of hashrate while they keep all their equipment. But rogue PoS attackers risk losing all their staked coins

I'm wondering if anybody here has a good rebuttal to their claims.

Core dev call just wrapped up:

As always, we appreciate your boots-on-the-ground updates

mmm so mr v says he is concerned that pos will have a possible issue due to Lido Finance holding 33% of the staked coins.

I see trouble 😈 just around the corner.

Good luck mr v. with keeping Lido on the lease once POS give them leverage.

[Coinfarm ventures]

mmm so mr v says he is concerned that pos will have a possible issue due to Lido Finance holding 33% of the staked coins.

Could it be an excuse for Vitalik to delay PoS yet again? They could claim they're "working on a new algorithm to decentralize staking pools"

[adaseb]

StETH is still trading at a discount. Basically it’s around $1170 while ETH is around $1212. Basically stETH will equal exactly ETH however it’s only post merge and somewhere like 6 months ago.

So you could basically buy stETH open a short on ETH and wait like 9 months and get like 4-5% gain. Basically not really worth the risk actually.

Either way, unlike UST it didn’t depeg too much. But if it were to go to 80% of ETH then perhaps It’s worth buying if you want to hold ETH long term.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

mmm so mr v says he is concerned that pos will have a possible issue due to Lido Finance holding 33% of the staked coins.

Could it be an excuse for Vitalik to delay PoS yet again? They could claim they're "working on a new algorithm to decentralize staking pools"

well if you read the thread by sp_

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402672.0


mr v may be sweating it a bit.


mr v still owes me 2 eth and an apology which I know will never happen.


sp_ has some compelling arguements in his thread


and the idea that 1 group with only 4% of all the eth is the driving force for pos is a damn good reason to not do pos.

[cudapop]

Core devs call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 scheduled for next week
2) Sepolia testnet TTD/merge completed
3) Goerli testnet TTD value to be decided on in consensus layer call next week or core dev call the week after

[FP91G]

Core devs call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 scheduled for next week
2) Sepolia testnet TTD/merge completed
3) Goerli testnet TTD value to be decided on in consensus layer call next week or core dev call the week after

I thought that the next testnet would be in Goerli testnet.
What is Mainnet shadow fork #9? how many more will there be before the end of ethereum mining?
If there are several more of these Mainnet shadow forks, then the developers may not be in time until the 4th quarter.

[adaseb]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

[cudapop]

Core devs call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 scheduled for next week
2) Sepolia testnet TTD/merge completed
3) Goerli testnet TTD value to be decided on in consensus layer call next week or core dev call the week after

I thought that the next testnet would be in Goerli testnet.
What is Mainnet shadow fork #9? how many more will there be before the end of ethereum mining?
If there are several more of these Mainnet shadow forks, then the developers may not be in time until the 4th quarter.

Goerli is the next (and final) testnet to be merged (#3 item). Sepolia was merged this week (#2 item).

Pari is the developer working on the weekly mainnet shadow forks, the other devs work on other merge (and post-merge) items. Pari has not mentioned if he will be discontinuing the shadow forks.

[swogerino]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

[philipma1957]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

Last time I checked

about 122 mill coins

including the 2 coins of mine that got lost when the etc/eth rollback fork occured.

60 million pre mined and sold for about 13.8 mill dollars.
12 million developers took for them selves
72 million coins

and 50 million actually mined.

total of 122 million coins of which 15 million are staked
5 million by one company Lido Finance.

so at best all 15 million staked coins were from the premine.

thus there would be 45 million premined coins that one or two people may have control of.

so those 45 million coins could easily take control of the staking.

even if the developers add in the 12 million they kept.

as 45 is greater than 15+12=27

so the reality is pos is a disaster at this moment if it starts up it must fail.

I contend that for a viable pos to start far far far more coins must be staked.

since so many premined dirt cheap coins are not staked.

math does not lie here.  mr v b do the right thing stop this suicidal pos march.

it is underfunded and totally vulnerable to an attack by at least 45 million unstaked premined coins
this is as easy as

45> 15+12

that is the best case for staked numbers

reality is

107>15 is worst case number for staked coins

either way the staked amount is very easily overcome since it is about 15 million coins.

[bitquad]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

Last time I checked

about 122 mill coins

including the 2 coins of mine that got lost when the etc/eth rollback fork occured.

60 million pre mined and sold for about 13.8 mill dollars.
12 million developers took for them selves
72 million coins

and 50 million actually mined.

total of 122 million coins of which 15 million are staked
5 million by one company Lido Finance.

so at best all 15 million staked coins were from the premine.

thus there would be 45 million premined coins that one or two people may have control of.

so those 45 million coins could easily take control of the staking.

even if the developers add in the 12 million they kept.

as 45 is greater than 15+12=27

so the reality is pos is a disaster at this moment if it starts up it must fail.

I contend that for a viable pos to start far far far more coins must be staked.

since so many premined dirt cheap coins are not staked.

math does not lie here.  mr v b do the right thing stop this suicidal pos march.

it is underfunded and totally vulnerable to an attack by at least 45 million unstaked premined coins
this is as easy as

45> 15+12

that is the best case for staked numbers

reality is

107>15 is worst case number for staked coins

either way the staked amount is very easily overcome since it is about 15 million coins.

You think an attacker is going to risk losing 15 million ETH? Only for the attack to be undone? Even at $1000 ETH that's $15 billion being risked on an attack that can be rolled back.

[philipma1957]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

Last time I checked

about 122 mill coins

including the 2 coins of mine that got lost when the etc/eth rollback fork occured.

60 million pre mined and sold for about 13.8 mill dollars.
12 million developers took for them selves
72 million coins

and 50 million actually mined.

total of 122 million coins of which 15 million are staked
5 million by one company Lido Finance.

so at best all 15 million staked coins were from the premine.

thus there would be 45 million premined coins that one or two people may have control of.

so those 45 million coins could easily take control of the staking.

even if the developers add in the 12 million they kept.

as 45 is greater than 15+12=27

so the reality is pos is a disaster at this moment if it starts up it must fail.

I contend that for a viable pos to start far far far more coins must be staked.

since so many premined dirt cheap coins are not staked.

math does not lie here.  mr v b do the right thing stop this suicidal pos march.

it is underfunded and totally vulnerable to an attack by at least 45 million unstaked premined coins
this is as easy as

45> 15+12

that is the best case for staked numbers

reality is

107>15 is worst case number for staked coins

either way the staked amount is very easily overcome since it is about 15 million coins.

You think an attacker is going to risk losing 15 million ETH? Only for the attack to be undone? Even at $1000 ETH that's $15 billion being risked on an attack that can be rolled back.

No there were 72 million premined coins.

12 million went to developers

60 million went to investors at a cost of 13.8 million.

there are 122 million coins in total

say 50 million mined

so

60
12
50
122 total

only 15 million are staked

so 107 million are not staked.

my point is those 15 million staked are very small percentage compared to the cheap 72 million premined.

And the premined cost was only 13.8 million for the 72 million coins.

so pos staking spent a ton of highly valued coins to stake and they can be wiped out on the cheap by all the low cost premined coins.

none of us know how many of the premined are controlled by one or two people.

they can cheaply take over the entire staking with ease.

I can tell you that unless far more coins go into pos staking the risk is huge that you can be wiped by the

premined coin owners



edit more deep thought here.

so I am a major player I have 6 million eth all premined investment which would be only 1/10 x 13.8 million = 1.38 million

I find 2 other guys with 6 million eth premised money between us we have 18 million eth which cost us only 1.38 x 3 = 4.14 million

we could crash the entire eth pos setup and only spent 4.14 million back in 2016 to do it now.

how bout we are ready to do exactly that and have placed multiple leveraged shorts on eth  across many exchanges.

as I see current setup looks doable.  worse yet Mr V.B. made noise about Lido as they hold about ⅓ the staked eth say 5 million coins.

so if Lido is sniffing around looking to hook up with 3 holders of 18 million premined coins. they are now up to 23 million coins easily fucking eth up bigly.

How about they are ready to pounce on that and will have billions in 5x 10x  20x 50x leveraged eth shorts all over.

the cost is 23 million coins of which 18 million were only 4.14 mill in 2016 dollars. and maybe worse is that most of lido coins are dirt cheap maybe 20 bucks a coin when purchased so 20 x 5 million = 100 million and 4.14 million is 104.14 million laid out to make billions in leveraged shorts.

Mr V.B. is risking this by going pos with a mere 15 million of 122 million coins and so many premined unaccounted coins.

Mark my words eth to pos will be the most amazing shit storm ever seen.

now is that just good fud? or a deep thought of Clear and present danger of eth's current pos plan?

I TRULY DO NOT KNOW

[cudapop]

Consensus layer call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 completed
2) Goerli shadow fork to be performed next week
3) Goerli TTD/merge tentatively targeted for the week of Aug 11
4) Assuming no issues with Goerli merge, Mainnet merge tentatively targeted for either the week of Sep 12 or Sep 19

[safar1980]

Members of the Ethereum community have set their sights on a new date for the blockchain's long-awaited Merge.

Come September 19, the network is expected to merge from its current state as a proof-of-work
(PoW) blockchain to an energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) network.
https://decrypt.co/105177/ethereum-devs-pencil-in-september-date-for-merge

[swogerino]

Members of the Ethereum community have set their sights on a new date for the blockchain's long-awaited Merge.

Come September 19, the network is expected to merge from its current state as a proof-of-work
(PoW) blockchain to an energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) network.
https://decrypt.co/105177/ethereum-devs-pencil-in-september-date-for-merge

If that happens we will mark the September 19 as the starting date of Ethereum deep illness which will inevitably bring death to Ethereum just a couple months after if they truly go to PoS and start the merge at that time.

We as miners should not care much if it goes or not to PoS as we have a lot of other coins who will take over.We remember the days before Ethereum that a lot of other coins were being mined and few people were unhappy about it.Maybe the profitability is the best with Ethereum but even so a new coin will come up to substitute the Ethereum in mining after the death of Ethereum.

Lastly that date has always been delayed since 2016 and also we see a lot of testing now I still believe when we reach near the end of August that date to be postponed again.Better stock up those GPU-s at cheap prices.

[arielbit]

Maybe it is more profitable when ETH becomes POS because those majority who only knew how to mine ETH will leave, and the profits will be shared among hardened shitcoiners hehe

[sp_]

Maybe it is more profitable when ETH becomes POS because those majority who only knew how to mine ETH will leave, and the profits will be shared among hardened shitcoiners hehe

When Ethereum goes POS and become a shitcoin it will not be on the top 10 marketcap coin anymore. Perhaps not even on the 100 list..

[philipma1957]

Maybe it is more profitable when ETH becomes POS because those majority who only knew how to mine ETH will leave, and the profits will be shared among hardened shitcoiners hehe

When Ethereum goes POS and become a shitcoin it will not be on the top 10 marketcap coin anymore. Perhaps not even on the 100 list..

VB is starting to look like Josh Garza

GAW Miners  and his paycoin scandal

https://www.theblocktalk.com/2018/09/defrauding-crypto-ceo-josh-garza-sentenced-in-landmark-case/

How is he going to keep control of 122 million coins when only 15 million are locked in stakes.

If a few people got in big when coins were premined they could have 6 million coins for only 1.38 million.


They can load all the exchanges with shorts and dump their cheap 6 million premined coins spending under 2 million in 2016 dollars to score huge money in shorts.  ETH and POS = shitstorm. 

I Pray for VB as he is in serious trouble here.

[0verseer]

Maybe it is more profitable when ETH becomes POS because those majority who only knew how to mine ETH will leave, and the profits will be shared among hardened shitcoiners hehe

When Ethereum goes POS and become a shitcoin it will not be on the top 10 marketcap coin anymore. Perhaps not even on the 100 list..

Come on, dude. Don't make it like the end of the world for ETH if it goes PoS just because PoW miners can't have the pie of ETH all for themself anymore. I'm sure with the behemoth of ERC20 tokens and smart contracts on the ETH ecosystem, it will keep being on the top 10 at CMC even in the worse dream you have for it. Funny how ETH with PoW is good but ETH without PoW is bad when CMC shows a completely different trend. It was the PoW coins are being pushed out from the top 10 or 20 CMC. Expect BTC because it was the pioneer as well as the 'gold' of crypto, and ETH with the massive ERC20 tokens.

[edgycorner]

Damn, the date is set for 19th September. My prediction for August turned out to be wrong 

I hope no one followed my pred with their money lol
If you did, sorry man 

[philipma1957]

Damn, the date is set for 19th September. My prediction for August turned out to be wrong 

I hope no one followed my pred with their money lol
If you did, sorry man 

https://cryptonews.net/news/ethereum/9283879/

read the link
the sept 19 is a guideline not a set date.

you can turnoff the gaslight😀

[edgycorner]

Damn, the date is set for 19th September. My prediction for August turned out to be wrong  

I hope no one followed my pred with their money lol
If you did, sorry man  

https://cryptonews.net/news/ethereum/9283879/

read the link
the sept 19 is a guideline not a set date.

you can turnoff the gaslight😀

yea, but august not happening in any way.
MSF10 is next week along with the release of Goerli merge. So yea, if we witness a successful subsequent MSFs and Goerlie merge by the first week of August then I am very confident that mainnet will merge in Sept 100%

[adaseb]

I think until they actually have it in the code and an actual block number for the merge fork, we can keep assuming its going to get delayed as usual. They always run into some issues and it always gets delayed.

This being a very major milestone, I think if there is any minor bug or issue they will have to postpone the fork. I remember a couple years back, there was suppose to be a fork. They found some minor bug a day prior to the fork and they decided to cancel the fork and it was post poned. ETH price didn't really get affected by much because everybody knows the eth devs take their time and are always delaying stuff.

[swogerino]

I think until they actually have it in the code and an actual block number for the merge fork, we can keep assuming its going to get delayed as usual. They always run into some issues and it always gets delayed.

This being a very major milestone, I think if there is any minor bug or issue they will have to postpone the fork. I remember a couple years back, there was suppose to be a fork. They found some minor bug a day prior to the fork and they decided to cancel the fork and it was post poned. ETH price didn't really get affected by much because everybody knows the eth devs take their time and are always delaying stuff.

Sounds a lot like what is going to happen during at least the year 2022.I see they kept delaying and will do so until early 2023 most likely.Now it is summer and people including developers prefer more a month at the beach rather than deploying new code or the Eth 2.0 as we know it.

The price of Ethereum has been steadily on the rise today going to near 1500 dollars and in fact it has been like that since Saturday when showed the first signs of recovery,probably because of the news of further delays is what I think.

[philipma1957]

I think until they actually have it in the code and an actual block number for the merge fork, we can keep assuming its going to get delayed as usual. They always run into some issues and it always gets delayed.

This being a very major milestone, I think if there is any minor bug or issue they will have to postpone the fork. I remember a couple years back, there was suppose to be a fork. They found some minor bug a day prior to the fork and they decided to cancel the fork and it was post poned. ETH price didn't really get affected by much because everybody knows the eth devs take their time and are always delaying stuff.

price is now close to 1480

coinbase is giving a free upfront 10% bonus if you stake 100 to 500 bucks worth of eth.

that 10% is unlocked

ie give 500 in eth they hold that 500 for a long time til eth2 is fully setup.

but they issue you 50 worth of eth liquid instantly.

and you get 3% on the 500 they hold.

this is a big incentive to stake.

maybe they are trying to get what I would consider the right amount of eth to be staked.

Now think about the following you bought in on the first 60 million premined coins.

your cost was only 23 cents a coin.

buy into coinbase now and get 50 bucks worth of eth at current price.

yeah it is restricted to only 500 with a 50 dollar bonus. but I think a lot of money may flow into coinbase.

if this continues and eth pushes close to 2k with coinbase getting a million more coins maybe eth will do the switch sooner rather than later.