How bad can it get?

[philipma1957]

IMO a bear market is the best time to mine if you own the equipment outright and can afford to pay your electricity bill without selling for fiat.  This is especially true if you paid retail or lower for your gear.  Oddly enough it seems like values have appreciated compared to pricing pre-chinese tariff.

You are right but the reason why a bear market is a good time to start mining is low mining difficulty, if no miners are leaving the network it will make no sense, look at the situation right now, we are in bear market but not as dip as that of 2018 where people are switching of their rigs, mining difficulty is still very high still.

Because miners are not in a bear market.  Yeah maybe 20 cent power miners are in trouble but not 10 cent power


Lets take my best rig it does 1030 mhs that is 1030 x 0.0237  = $24.41 pre power it burns 50 kwatts a day

so

$24.41 - 2.50 =   21.91 daily profit for a  5 cent miner-------- my farm
$24.41 - 5.00 =   19.41 daily profit for a 10 cent miner
$24.41 - 7.50 =   16.91 daily profit for a 15 cent miner-------- my garage
$24.41 - 10.00 = 14.41 daily profit for a 20 cent miner
$24.41 - 12.50 = 11.91 daily profit for a 25 cent miner

so we simply are not a bear mining market

anyone with over 25 cent power was more a fool than a miner.

I would argue you won't see any hash drop unless 10 cent miners are losers as that knocks out home mining in a lot of spots. { edit sp knocks }

[Coinfarm ventures]

so we simply are not a bear mining market

I would argue you won't see any hash drop unless 10 cent miners are losers as that knocks out home mining in a lot of spots. { edit sp knocks }

Many people here forget how brutal the market became in late 2018. RX 570 cards were making a few pennies a day of profit at 10¢ power. They sucked on other algos. nVidia rigs, like the GTX 1060, did better at $0.60/day of revenue on coins like GRIN or RVN and consumed $0.28 of power. But even if you paid MSRP for that card, that was a 3-year payback time.

Today we stand at 500-600 day payback for most video card models. This isn't a bull market but it definitely isn't a bear market. I call it a transitional market.

I think we will see a lot more capitulation than late 2018 if/when ETH goes to PoS. At least in 2018, it was a lot slower. But PoS will be like the revenue dropping by 95% overnight. It will be so bad that even miners with 3 cent power will be unprofitable. That's when the real selloff would start. I wouldn't be surprised if RTX 3090's will cost just $500!

[Metroid]

I think we will see a lot more capitulation than late 2018 if/when ETH goes to PoS. At least in 2018, it was a lot slower. But PoS will be like the revenue dropping by 95% overnight. It will be so bad that even miners with 3 cent power will be unprofitable. That's when the real selloff would start. I wouldn't be surprised if RTX 3090's will cost just $500!

No matter how much truth you tell them, they will never learn unless they go through the process, 3090's could go for even less than 500 usd, very few people mine at loss, most will sell and will not have demand to keep gpus at msrp, bear market is the opposite of bull market, in bull market, coin is king, in bear market, fiat is king and will take time for things get back to normal again, this is still pre bear market because manipulators want to trap more people yet close to top.

[arielbit]

I think we will see a lot more capitulation than late 2018 if/when ETH goes to PoS. At least in 2018, it was a lot slower. But PoS will be like the revenue dropping by 95% overnight. It will be so bad that even miners with 3 cent power will be unprofitable. That's when the real selloff would start. I wouldn't be surprised if RTX 3090's will cost just $500!

No matter how much truth you tell them, they will never learn unless they go through the process, 3090's could go for even less than 500 usd, very few people mine at loss, most will sell and will not have demand to keep gpus at msrp, bear market is the opposite of bull market, in bull market, coin is king, in bear market, fiat is king and will take time for things get back to normal again, this is still pre bear market because manipulators want to trap more people yet close to top.

I have a realization, i just haven't talked about it much..if you really think about it..

construction, restaurant, baking other businesses equipment (some) are cheaper than GPUs something is really off..either the world is changing that POW is here to stay or are we going to correct to some real doom death and destruction in this "mining cryptos".

i also predicted in the past that GPU makers, nvidia, amd..and now intel will create their coin that can be tied/optimized or architecturally (hardware) to their specific algos (LHR is just a beta test of this scenario, the exact opposite of reducing hashrate is also reducing every other algo except their own, they can even create their proprietary miner(closed source, competing with our existing miner(software)makers here.)

this overpriced cards (hefty profits) is addicting to them, see that intel has joined the club. they will create/plan something to keep this "economy" alive.

-exchanges economy scam   ...done
-POS economy scams           ...done
-shitcoin economy scams      ...done
-stable coin economy scams  ...done
-mining economy scams        ...coming soon to be perpetrated by big corp GPU makers.

[Metroid]

........

Yeah, this has become a big market but like every market it has ups and downs, Intel is just getting in the game now, Nvidia and AMD have been manipulating this market for as long as they can and will continue to do so, the only way to kill this market is political at moment and I don't see it happening yet but one day it might. Anyway, to have a growth again, first everything needs to go to hehelll, that is just how human civilization was built upon anyway, destruction then prosperity then destruction then prosperity and so on and you can win big both ways, playing both sides.

[Coinfarm ventures]

destruction then prosperity and so on and you can win big both ways, playing both sides.

Smart miners have a plan to make profit because they have saved up acorns during the good times, which they can spend soon to buy a boatload of equipment for cheap. They have enough fiat saved up to pay the power bill during the coming hard times. They never paid over MSRP for the equipment and started paying off all loans when the price lost momentum in June 2021.

Dumb miners bought all their GPUs on credit (or leveraged their ASICs). They paid above MSRP for the equipment in the middle of the bull market rather than the beginning. They didn't sell any coin during the bull market, or worse, they levered the coins to buy even more equipment at inflated prices. Now they have no cash reserve to fall back on when profit goes to zero. The only way they can pay even half of the credit cards is to liquidate everything.

this overpriced cards (hefty profits) is addicting to them, see that intel has joined the club. they will create/plan something to keep this "economy" alive.

It would take years for a new GPU PoW coin to reach the same market cap as ETH, even if these manufacturers got lucky and somehow launched a currency that users/investors had confidence in. So this is a long-term play, not something that can prop up the mining market now.

[philipma1957]

destruction then prosperity and so on and you can win big both ways, playing both sides.

Smart miners have a plan to make profit because they have saved up acorns during the good times, which they can spend soon to buy a boatload of equipment for cheap. They have enough fiat saved up to pay the power bill during the coming hard times. They never paid over MSRP for the equipment and started paying off all loans when the price lost momentum in June 2021.

Dumb miners bought all their GPUs on credit (or leveraged their ASICs). They paid above MSRP for the equipment in the middle of the bull market rather than the beginning. They didn't sell any coin during the bull market, or worse, they levered the coins to buy even more equipment at inflated prices. Now they have no cash reserve to fall back on when profit goes to zero. The only way they can pay even half of the credit cards is to liquidate everything.

this overpriced cards (hefty profits) is addicting to them, see that intel has joined the club. they will create/plan something to keep this "economy" alive.

It would take years for a new GPU PoW coin to reach the same market cap as ETH, even if these manufacturers got lucky and somehow launched a currency that users/investors had confidence in. So this is a long-term play, not something that can prop up the mining market now.

Even if you can simply turn some gear off for a  few months.

 Say your older gear 1080ti's

[deskless]

It has always been confusing what to do. I have been wanting to sell half of GPUs for a while. Mostly 580s and RadeonVIIs. After paying 10-15% to Ebay and 35% to Uncle Sam , we lose half of the sell price.
Hastle of un-assembling them and taking them to USPS/FedEx.

[adaseb]

The capitulation of 2018 was pretty much instant. All it took was for Bitcoin to break the $6K support in November and many stopped mining then and there.

2014-2015 was much slower and no capitulation really. Just as weeks went by people just shut off their rigs one by one. It was a very boring year and many quit just out of boredom.

Wonder how 2022 will be. If it goes POS then I am pretty sure it will be an instant capitulation for every miner.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Wonder how 2022 will be. If it goes POS then I am pretty sure it will be an instant capitulation for every miner.

If there's a recession at the end of this year in the U.S., along with ETH PoS, that will create the perfect storm. The capitulation phase would be a lot quicker than late 2018. Merge block number announced, then everything goes to 'hehell'. In a matter of days, video card prices crash from +10% MSRP to -30% MSRP. They eventually end up at half of MSRP. AMD cards suffer more because they are more tied to mining. where RTX 3090 prices could dive as low as $400.

No GPU coin will be profitable even at 2 cent power for a while. When the panic phase is over, I think we will see similar profit levels to early 2019. Certain video cards like the RTX 3000's might have a 3-4 year payback time, while others are 10 years. The market will remain in that limbo state until/if another GPU PoW coin goes big. You'll still be able to make a 30% or so return per year if power costs 8 cents.

[FP91G]

Wonder how 2022 will be. If it goes POS then I am pretty sure it will be an instant capitulation for every miner.

If there's a recession at the end of this year in the U.S., along with ETH PoS, that will create the perfect storm. The capitulation phase would be a lot quicker than late 2018. Merge block number announced, then everything goes to 'hehell'. In a matter of days, video card prices crash from +10% MSRP to -30% MSRP. They eventually end up at half of MSRP. AMD cards suffer more because they are more tied to mining. where RTX 3090 prices could dive as low as $400.

No GPU coin will be profitable even at 2 cent power for a while. When the panic phase is over, I think we will see similar profit levels to early 2019. Certain video cards like the RTX 3000's might have a 3-4 year payback time, while others are 10 years. The market will remain in that limbo state until/if another GPU PoW coin goes big. You'll still be able to make a 30% or so return per year if power costs 8 cents.

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?
An ethereum fork will not solve this problem and ethereum classic already exists.

[Metroid]

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?
An ethereum fork will not solve this problem and ethereum classic already exists.

They will make an eth fork and preserve pow on that fork, I wonder how long that will work, price will be at lowest.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?

That is why I said:

No GPU coin will be profitable even at 2 cent power for a while

[Maliceprime]

I think we will see a lot more capitulation than late 2018 if/when ETH goes to PoS. At least in 2018, it was a lot slower. But PoS will be like the revenue dropping by 95% overnight. It will be so bad that even miners with 3 cent power will be unprofitable. That's when the real selloff would start. I wouldn't be surprised if RTX 3090's will cost just $500!

No matter how much truth you tell them, they will never learn unless they go through the process, 3090's could go for even less than 500 usd, very few people mine at loss, most will sell and will not have demand to keep gpus at msrp, bear market is the opposite of bull market, in bull market, coin is king, in bear market, fiat is king and will take time for things get back to normal again, this is still pre bear market because manipulators want to trap more people yet close to top.

The way you think is out of this world and yea you are always on point, I am glad I knew what I was heading for when I built my mining rigs, I don't have any intention of selling even if a 60MH turn 0.2$, what I lost is dollar value and I will keep mining and holding till another bull season gets here, my 100$ after few months of mining can turn 2000$ again.

[adaseb]

I don’t think it’s possible for their to be an Ethereum classic classic fork. It’s mostly due to the difficulty bomb.

Basically in a month or two they will release a new software that every exchange and pool needs to upgrade to which will have the fork block number subscribed.

If a miner wants to run the old software they will end up going nowhere due to the difficulty bomb. Sure it’s possible the chain might survive a day or so but I doubt it will be as successful as ETC.

[Metroid]

I don’t think it’s possible for their to be an Ethereum classic classic fork. It’s mostly due to the difficulty bomb.

I dont have inside info on that so I cant be sure, last I heard it was a group working on that. The way things are, not going to be surprised if it takes over eth main branch in future because of staying at pow, that is for the people to decide, the issue here is if that fork is created by scammers devs then that will be just a pump and dump coin. As far as I see, eth current devs are all scammers in their own way, not like regular scammers, the issue is if regular scammers devs take control of it or create it for that solely purpose, need to be very careful.

The way you think is out of this world and yea you are always on point, I am glad I knew what I was heading for when I built my mining rigs, I don't have any intention of selling even if a 60MH turn 0.2$, what I lost is dollar value and I will keep mining and holding till another bull season gets here, my 100$ after few months of mining can turn 2000$ again.

In this market you have to look out for you, the greatest wild west finance of the 21th century for sure, aka the greatest pyramid scheme as far as it exists at moment.

[FP91G]

Do you seriously think that someone can create a coin that can use at least half of the Ethereum hashrate and it will be profitable for mining?
An ethereum fork will not solve this problem and ethereum classic already exists.

They will make an eth fork and preserve pow on that fork, I wonder how long that will work, price will be at lowest.

And how will all smart contracts and other related projects like Matic work? I think it is very difficult to implement and this fork will be useless due to many problems, because ethereum related projects will not support it.

[adaseb]

Well the reason why ETC worked is because the difficulty bomb wasn’t anywhere close. So that’s why the old chain could of survived by a single miner since unlike BTC the retarget difficulty is much quicker.

If some people decide to mine the old ETH chain then there will be no point because it’ll basically hit the difficulty bomb shortly after and the chain will be unusable. This was the point of the difficulty bomb pretty much.

So nobody will buy the new token because they know that’s the chain will eventually stop unless some dev takes over and removes the difficulty bomb like ETC did.

[FP91G]

Well the reason why ETC worked is because the difficulty bomb wasn’t anywhere close. So that’s why the old chain could of survived by a single miner since unlike BTC the retarget difficulty is much quicker.

If some people decide to mine the old ETH chain then there will be no point because it’ll basically hit the difficulty bomb shortly after and the chain will be unusable. This was the point of the difficulty bomb pretty much.

So nobody will buy the new token because they know that’s the chain will eventually stop unless some dev takes over and removes the difficulty bomb like ETC did.

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

[Coinfarm ventures]

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

Forked or not, the bottom line will be that Vitalik & Co.'s PoS chain will retain the vast majority of its market cap. The PoW chain will be almost worthless, like $50 per Ether if we're lucky. Best case, it becomes like the ETC fork back in 2016 or BCH in 2017.

But regardless, 90%+ of the total block reward available to GPU miners will vanish overnight, and no rig will be profitable except at free power. Even if the PoS chain ran into a major bug and they want to go back to PoW, that would still destroy confidence in ETH, meaning mining profit would crash by 90% anyway.

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.