How bad can it get?

[swogerino]

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

That is somewhat radical from your point of view.Right now Ethereum Classic is holding very well in the profitability for the same hash rate as the ETH as ETC just gives you a couple of dollars less.I think since the beginning of mining PoW has always worked and has always been the winner in mining,I think this is not going to change even if Ethereum goes PoS,it will be a loss for Ethereum and not for the miners and PoW algorithm.I think Ethereum Classic has the capacity to accommodate the miners for the short term span until a new coin like Ethereum comes out.I believe in the win of miners so Ethereum and the people following it after moving to PoS will be the only losers.

[FP91G]

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

Forked or not, the bottom line will be that Vitalik & Co.'s PoS chain will retain the vast majority of its market cap. The PoW chain will be almost worthless, like $50 per Ether if we're lucky. Best case, it becomes like the ETC fork back in 2016 or BCH in 2017.

But regardless, 90%+ of the total block reward available to GPU miners will vanish overnight, and no rig will be profitable except at free power. Even if the PoS chain ran into a major bug and they want to go back to PoW, that would still destroy confidence in ETH, meaning mining profit would crash by 90% anyway.

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

in 2016, smart contracts were just starting to be launched, and because of the hacking of the most famous smart contract, a fork appeared.  Now it's a huge system that can't be cloned. Miners will look for other coins, but they will not be happy with the profit.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Right now Ethereum Classic is holding very well in the profitability for the same hash rate as the ETH as ETC just gives you a couple of dollars less.

Not anymore if/when ETH were to go PoS. Millions of video cards will be flocking to the remaining 5% of the available GPU revenue. Profitability of ETC, FLUX, ERG, etc. will be near zero for weeks or months. ETC will be strictly an ASIC coin anyway. So we'll actually be left with 2% of the revenue.

I think since the beginning of mining PoW has always worked and has always been the winner in mining,I think this is not going to change even if Ethereum goes PoS,it will be a loss for Ethereum and not for the miners and PoW algorithm.I think Ethereum Classic has the capacity to accommodate the miners for the short term span until a new coin like Ethereum comes out.I believe in the win of miners so Ethereum and the people following it after moving to PoS will be the only losers.

I was talking about Ethereum specifically. Of course I believe PoW on GPUs will win in the long run, but when it comes to ETH, we shouldn't celebrate/wish for a failure of PoS, because that would hurt confidence in the coin as a whole, therefore mining profit would go to zero on ETH even if it reverted to PoW.

Miners will look for other coins, but they will not be happy with the profit.

This is exactly what will happen. There will be no profit on the other GPU coins until enough miners capitulate and sell their rigs. Once hashrate comes down, profit will improve.

[philipma1957]

But this does not solve the performance problems of other projects and smart contracts. Even if the developers turn off the difficulty bomb in the new fork, this exchange coin will not be listed for trading and the miners will not work at a loss.

Forked or not, the bottom line will be that Vitalik & Co.'s PoS chain will retain the vast majority of its market cap. The PoW chain will be almost worthless, like $50 per Ether if we're lucky. Best case, it becomes like the ETC fork back in 2016 or BCH in 2017.

But regardless, 90%+ of the total block reward available to GPU miners will vanish overnight, and no rig will be profitable except at free power. Even if the PoS chain ran into a major bug and they want to go back to PoW, that would still destroy confidence in ETH, meaning mining profit would crash by 90% anyway.

The only possible outcomes of PoS are PoS wins, PoW loses or PoS loses, PoW loses. There is no scenario where PoW wins.

Yes there is.

V B vanishes someone takes over and says we aint going pos v b was a moron.

I give that a small chance.

VB and co already blinked and delayed pos from aug to sept.

he must be finding it very hard to sleep at night knowing he has spilt eth follower’s into pow and pos camps.

a lot depends on whom actually is backing him and what they really want him to do.

I have to think
Nvidia
Amd
Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

adds to over 800 billion
eth market cap is well under that last I looked.

[Coinfarm ventures]

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Hmm not sure If V.B. vanishes and his replacements put off POS for 1 year Eth Pow is effectively saved.

Jack Ma disappeared  for a very long time.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-56448688


Mr V could easily  vanish for the same amount of time.

[arielbit]

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Then why LHR?, (algo and price manipulation)

Saving gpu mining is not a business model..owning gpu mining is a business model.

My projection is still very far but it can now be projected, so there is a possibility.

The GPU sold out, price increase and limit per customer happened. --> this cannot be called small time or nothing.

Even a pump and dump during a new series release is a good business move.

[FP91G]

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Then why LHR?, (algo and price manipulation)

Saving gpu mining is not a business model..owning gpu mining is a business model.

My projection is still very far but it can now be projected, so there is a possibility.

The GPU sold out, price increase and limit per customer happened. --> this cannot be called small time or nothing.

Even a pump and dump during a new series release is a good business move.

The release of LHR video cards helped sellers avoid warranty risks. Nvidia sold mining video cards with a maximum warranty of 6 months but I have seen 3 months or less.
When the buyer was ready to buy any video card, LHR models appeared. When the buyer began to choose AMD, hackers appeared who hacked LHR. That's a coincidence.

[arielbit]

Intel want pow and that is a very wealthy group of companies.
Nvidia market cap is 468 billion
Intel Market cap is 177 billion
Amd market cap is 172 billion

Their main customers are datacenters. That's where they can make the highest profit margin. Miners only care about the price and they're an unreliable customer. Gamers are reliable customers who have brand loyalty, but only for 2-3 years instead of 10 years like the server customers, plus they're price sensitive too. 80% of the market cap of these silicon companies comes from their server customer base, not miners or gamers. Intel probably views mining as a nice side market to diversify their base, but not their focus by any means. Neeeveeeeediaaaa is migrating away from their GeForce gaming customer base toward the datacenter market, too.

The only company here that stands to lose from ETH PoS is AMD, because the Radeon brand isn't as popular for gaming and they have good hashrate. But I don't think they have any secret plan to save GPU mining. I need to see it before I'll believe it.

Then why LHR?, (algo and price manipulation)

Saving gpu mining is not a business model..owning gpu mining is a business model.

My projection is still very far but it can now be projected, so there is a possibility.

The GPU sold out, price increase and limit per customer happened. --> this cannot be called small time or nothing.

Even a pump and dump during a new series release is a good business move.

The release of LHR video cards helped sellers avoid warranty risks. Nvidia sold mining video cards with a maximum warranty of 6 months but I have seen 3 months or less.
When the buyer was ready to buy any video card, LHR models appeared. When the buyer began to choose AMD, hackers appeared who hacked LHR. That's a coincidence.

"mAnIPuLaTiOn"

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Well 2 cents for eth per mh works for me, but do we bail in Sept and do pos or do we delay till dec-feb?

place your bets.

[MerrHeLL]

I'm more optimistic than this. The crash of Crypto is complicated. Common sense tells us a decentralized non fiat coin should weather an economic downturn... but instead all crypto has taken a dive along with the bad inflation numbers, declining stock market etc. Its the fear factor. Investors can't predict what Crypto will do so there has simply been a lot of profit taking... and a resistance to keep investing or buying. The big buyers are moving into less risky assets like bonds, munis, physical assets. Crypto prices will rebound but the question is when? Confidence needs to be regained. I think it will be slow and come in the form of POS finally happening and other altcoins emerging to replace ETH POS. All of which combined will be worth way less than what ETH alone was worth on POS at the end of 2021. If Vitalik and company understood economics and ETH's actual customers (he forgets he has a product and customers) they never would have taken this difficulty bomb force POW miners to die off and switch to POS method. A smarter way to build ETH on POS would have allowed for a transparent dual path course where ETH POW would remain but have a side by side entry of ETH POS. Then the confidence in ETH POW would not have to be destroyed like it has been. You get the benefit of the mining community, continue to offer value to them in gas fees and create additional wealth with ETH POS rather than destroy the former wealth of ETH POW. The stakers of 2021 have now lost 2/3rds of their investment. Does anyone like their investments shrinking by 2/3rds? The Vitalik and company elites tried to deceive the world with their fake propaganda claiming altruism around energy consumption when the reality was always greed for the devs. Align with some large investors to take more for themselves is all POS really is. The worst part about the sham is they have literally made the ETH ecosystem less resilient, less capable, and less viable to build business systems with. Will a fully implemented POS in 2024 be better than what ETH POW was in late 2021? Maybe, but we won't see ETH worth $4800K until 2025. This was a huge mistake that destroyed the wealth of many many people.

I'm rooting for the crypto community to succeed... but trying to consolidate wealth in the hands of a few all while pretending to be doing so for the planet has been exposed for what it is. It is a fraud and always has been. Free markets really do work... and Vitalik and company are learning that every day with the current suck prices of ETH.

Right now Ethereum Classic is holding very well in the profitability for the same hash rate as the ETH as ETC just gives you a couple of dollars less.

Not anymore if/when ETH were to go PoS. Millions of video cards will be flocking to the remaining 5% of the available GPU revenue. Profitability of ETC, FLUX, ERG, etc. will be near zero for weeks or months. ETC will be strictly an ASIC coin anyway. So we'll actually be left with 2% of the revenue.

I think since the beginning of mining PoW has always worked and has always been the winner in mining,I think this is not going to change even if Ethereum goes PoS,it will be a loss for Ethereum and not for the miners and PoW algorithm.I think Ethereum Classic has the capacity to accommodate the miners for the short term span until a new coin like Ethereum comes out.I believe in the win of miners so Ethereum and the people following it after moving to PoS will be the only losers.

I was talking about Ethereum specifically. Of course I believe PoW on GPUs will win in the long run, but when it comes to ETH, we shouldn't celebrate/wish for a failure of PoS, because that would hurt confidence in the coin as a whole, therefore mining profit would go to zero on ETH even if it reverted to PoW.

Miners will look for other coins, but they will not be happy with the profit.

This is exactly what will happen. There will be no profit on the other GPU coins until enough miners capitulate and sell their rigs. Once hashrate comes down, profit will improve.

[0verseer]

Well 2 cents for eth per mh works for me, but do we bail in Sept and do pos or do we delay till dec-feb?

place your bets.

Right now, under the worst possible outcome, ETH PoS is still roll out but delay for a few months than the initial estimate of ETH foundation that the merge will be in Aug/Sep. So at least, miners need to planing accordingly to that: stop buying/building new rigs, start slowly reducing the numbers of your mining rigs and change it to ETH so you'll have a stake in the new PoS system.

[FP91G]

Well 2 cents for eth per mh works for me, but do we bail in Sept and do pos or do we delay till dec-feb?

place your bets.

Right now, under the worst possible outcome, ETH PoS is still roll out but delay for a few months than the initial estimate of ETH foundation that the merge will be in Aug/Sep. So at least, miners need to planing accordingly to that: stop buying/building new rigs, start slowly reducing the numbers of your mining rigs and change it to ETH so you have a stake in the new PoS system.

I advise you to look at the telegram channels of miners where they sell video cards. There are a lot of offers to sell video cards at low prices. Therefore, now it is very difficult to profitably sell a mining farm. You can sell video cards separately, but this is very long.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I advise you to look at the telegram channels of miners where they sell video cards. There are a lot of offers to sell video cards at low prices. Therefore, now it is very difficult to profitably sell a mining farm. You can sell video cards separately, but this is very long.

This is why I decided to sell my video cards slowly one-by-one over the next 1-2 weeks in order to get higher prices.

[adaseb]

I have a feeling that this week when we check eBay, Craigslist, Facebook marketplace we are going to see a large supply of GPUs hitting the market.

With POS approaching closely and ETH taking a huge hit and trading under the 2017 ATH I think many people are going to call it quits earlier to get the most out of their GPUs.

Happens every time whenever a bear market just becomes an even bigger bear market.

[swogerino]

I have a feeling that this week when we check eBay, Craigslist, Facebook marketplace we are going to see a large supply of GPUs hitting the market.

With POS approaching closely and ETH taking a huge hit and trading under the 2017 ATH I think many people are going to call it quits earlier to get the most out of their GPUs.

Happens every time whenever a bear market just becomes an even bigger bear market.

I am not selling anything myself,maybe buy the Rtx 3060 or 3060 ti as the most efficient cards energy consumption wise and I hope to see a lot of people selling their GPU-s and moving away for good from mining.The difficulty is still over 14 P for Ethereum mining which shows it is not regulating to what we are predicting but if our predictions are true then I think it should go down exponentially during time giving the miners who will stay mining much bigger daily rewards.I am looking forward to this,I am confident I will be the last miner shutting anything down  whatever happens.

[Metroid]

I have a feeling that this week when we check eBay, Craigslist, Facebook marketplace we are going to see a large supply of GPUs hitting the market.

With POS approaching closely and ETH taking a huge hit and trading under the 2017 ATH I think many people are going to call it quits earlier to get the most out of their GPUs.

Happens every time whenever a bear market just becomes an even bigger bear market.

I was not expecting a crash this fast, overnight btc crashed from 29k to 23k now, that is insane, is a lot more than I thought it would be and still no bulltrap, that means a btc below 10k is possible to hit that cme gap of 9600 usd before going up again, maybe my prophecy will happen again. Yeah negative profit is closer and closer for 60mhs on eth, we had that negative profit for 30mhs ethash for months 2018 - 2019, now maybe is going to be 60mhs, not even 30mhs. Eth right now is 1180 usd, is crashing too fast and this is not the bottom yet. It's funny, most have not sold at 4k but they are selling now and will sell much much lower hehe, that is what market price is.

[sp_]

stETH seem to be another Luna..

[Metroid]

stETH seem to be another Luna..

Scammers create this in order to create a scam market and rob sheeps and look what happened, defi and tokens are other things that crash eth a lot too, it cant be helped, gameover to eth, now it might crash just like 2018, 17 times instead of only 6 - 9 times that I had projected, meaning the worse case scenario, eth at 300 usd possible now as bottom.

[sp_]

Which fake USD will crash next?

USDN, USDD and FEI is looking weak