Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, the Russian economy will not collapse due to the imposition of Western sanctions.  

However, Russia is threatened with the "archaization" of the economy.  

At the same time, cars, trains, planes, and trains were produced in the USSR.  All this functioned without the use of modern electronics.  The Russians have the opportunity to gradually restore their heavy industry and even machine tool building. The economy will function.

However, in the field of microelectronics and modern technologies, Russia are hopelessly behind the countries of the Western world.

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[Sithara007]

However, in the field of microelectronics and modern technologies, Russia are hopelessly behind the countries of the Western world.

Microchips and modern electronic components will anyhow land in Russia. The only difference is that they will be smuggled from China and the Russians will be forced to pay a premium for it. The Russians themselves are not going to bother much, as long as they are earning $20 to $25 billion every month from the sale of fossil fuels. A Russian minister recently proposed reducing the crude oil production from 10 million barrels to 7 million barrels a day, to avoid selling oil in discount. Even now they are earning $80 to $90 per barrel, which is much higher than the level in 2021.

[DrBeer]

1. Tell me - are you all right with arithmetic? I don’t want to offend you .. but 2/3 of 100% of the market is about 67%. Those. In your opinion, Russia, which supplied 30% of neon to the world market, is this equal to 67%? Are you seriously ?
But I will support you in your remark - let's see how the market will be rebuilt in connection with another fact proving the unpredictability of Russia as a supplier.

Ukraine stopped supplying neon to the market at the very beginning of the special operation. The share of Ukraine was about 40% and then became zero. Russia's share was about 30% and has now also dropped sharply due to the export ban. As a result, just about two-thirds of the total fell out, everything is in order with arithmetic.

You may also be interested to know that Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian. For the production of microelectronics, high-purity neon is needed.

Both suspended and launched, production is not in the combat zone, as well as a significant part of the raw materials sources (industries).
And now bother to provide evidence that all the neon produced by Ukraine was just a post-treatment of the Russian one? But just not links to fake generators like RushToday or other fake media from Russia?

[be.open]

Both suspended and launched, production is not in the combat zone, as well as a significant part of the raw materials sources (industries).

In Ukraine, two companies prior to the start of the operation were cleaning Russian neon for the needs of microelectronics - Cryoin in Odessa and Ingaz in Mariupol. I think Ukraine will hardly be able to launch a company in Mariupol in the foreseeable future, there are also doubts about Odessa.

And now bother to provide evidence that all the neon produced by Ukraine was just a post-treatment of the Russian one? But just not links to fake generators like RushToday or other fake media from Russia?

It is not difficult to confirm this information with a link, it is more difficult to find a link that is not affiliated with Russia and which you can trust.

For example here is an article in a Spanish newspaper.

Ukraine provides half of the world's supply of neon, which is necessary for the production of semiconductors. Neon is used in lasers, which are used to create patterns on chips. The Odessa company "Cryoin" played an important role in deliveries of neon to the USA, South Korea and Japan. Gases generated as a by-product in Russian steel mills were supplied to Cryoin, where they were then purified.

Quote from the article at the link, highlighted by me.

[DrBeer]

Both suspended and launched, production is not in the combat zone, as well as a significant part of the raw materials sources (industries).

In Ukraine, two companies prior to the start of the operation were cleaning Russian neon for the needs of microelectronics - Cryoin in Odessa and Ingaz in Mariupol. I think Ukraine will hardly be able to launch a company in Mariupol in the foreseeable future, there are also doubts about Odessa.

And now bother to provide evidence that all the neon produced by Ukraine was just a post-treatment of the Russian one? But just not links to fake generators like RushToday or other fake media from Russia?

It is not difficult to confirm this information with a link, it is more difficult to find a link that is not affiliated with Russia and which you can trust.

For example here is an article in a Spanish newspaper.

Ukraine provides half of the world's supply of neon, which is necessary for the production of semiconductors. Neon is used in lasers, which are used to create patterns on chips. The Odessa company "Cryoin" played an important role in deliveries of neon to the USA, South Korea and Japan. Gases generated as a by-product in Russian steel mills were supplied to Cryoin, where they were then purified.

Quote from the article at the link, highlighted by me.

The article smells very strongly, no, not for biased, but absolutely about the Russian. The result of the article - well, where are you without Russia!? Would they lie if the truth was reprinted in Russian media
https://inosmi.ru/20220531/resursy-254354103.html

By the way, there is not a word about the fact that Russian resources are the main raw material for all neon production in Ukraine. It only says that 1 out of 2 plants supplied products from the Russian steel industry. "Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian - your words"? Maybe you didn't understand the question? Ok, I repeat once again - indicate a trustworthy source containing verified information that everything, as you indicated, Ukrainian production works on Russian raw materials, and without it it cannot produce neon? Did you mean that in your original post? If not, then there is no particular problem, only part of the raw materials for 1 plant "fell off", which can be compensated by supplies from other countries - Germany, Slovenia, Italy ... Or are there steel mills only in Russia?

I can only add, I stand by the truth in any situation, that Ukrainian companies, in some cases, partially used Russian raw materials, both for part of their needs, and on a contract basis, for Russian producers, performing post-treatment of primary raw materials (a by-product of metallurgy) . But Russian raw materials were not of any critical importance. By the way, you forgot to mention that the article says "Ukraine provides half of the world's neon supplies." Half is 50%, or do you think differently?

The plant located in Odessa will be launched. The plant in Mariupol, after being freed from terrorists, will also be put into operation - the country and business need money.
I am not ready to say how much the Neon plant suffered from terrorists, but if it cannot quickly enter into operation, it is possible that production will be increased in Odessa. Yes, there will be a noticeable decrease in supplies, but the world market will now perfectly understand that dealing with such terrorist suppliers as Russia should never be done again.

[be.open]

Both suspended and launched, production is not in the combat zone, as well as a significant part of the raw materials sources (industries).

In Ukraine, two companies prior to the start of the operation were cleaning Russian neon for the needs of microelectronics - Cryoin in Odessa and Ingaz in Mariupol. I think Ukraine will hardly be able to launch a company in Mariupol in the foreseeable future, there are also doubts about Odessa.

And now bother to provide evidence that all the neon produced by Ukraine was just a post-treatment of the Russian one? But just not links to fake generators like RushToday or other fake media from Russia?

It is not difficult to confirm this information with a link, it is more difficult to find a link that is not affiliated with Russia and which you can trust.

For example here is an article in a Spanish newspaper.

Ukraine provides half of the world's supply of neon, which is necessary for the production of semiconductors. Neon is used in lasers, which are used to create patterns on chips. The Odessa company "Cryoin" played an important role in deliveries of neon to the USA, South Korea and Japan. Gases generated as a by-product in Russian steel mills were supplied to Cryoin, where they were then purified.

Quote from the article at the link, highlighted by me.

The article smells very strongly, no, not for biased, but absolutely about the Russian. The result of the article - well, where are you without Russia!? Would they lie if the truth was reprinted in Russian media
https://inosmi.ru/20220531/resursy-254354103.html

By the way, there is not a word about the fact that Russian resources are the main raw material for all neon production in Ukraine. It only says that 1 out of 2 plants supplied products from the Russian steel industry. "Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian - your words"? Maybe you didn't understand the question? Ok, I repeat once again - indicate a trustworthy source containing verified information that everything, as you indicated, Ukrainian production works on Russian raw materials, and without it it cannot produce neon? Did you mean that in your original post? If not, then there is no particular problem, only part of the raw materials for 1 plant "fell off", which can be compensated by supplies from other countries - Germany, Slovenia, Italy ... Or are there steel mills only in Russia?

I can only add, I stand by the truth in any situation, that Ukrainian companies, in some cases, partially used Russian raw materials, both for part of their needs, and on a contract basis, for Russian producers, performing post-treatment of primary raw materials (a by-product of metallurgy) . But Russian raw materials were not of any critical importance. By the way, you forgot to mention that the article says "Ukraine provides half of the world's neon supplies." Half is 50%, or do you think differently?

The plant located in Odessa will be launched. The plant in Mariupol, after being freed from terrorists, will also be put into operation - the country and business need money.
I am not ready to say how much the Neon plant suffered from terrorists, but if it cannot quickly enter into operation, it is possible that production will be increased in Odessa. Yes, there will be a noticeable decrease in supplies, but the world market will now perfectly understand that dealing with such terrorist suppliers as Russia should never be done again.

I did not go deep into the technology of neon production, as far as I understand, this is not a very environmentally friendly event. Therefore, in principle, its production can be established within a year in many countries of the world, but there is no queue of those who want to. In fact, at present, inert gases are a strong lever of pressure from Russia on unfriendly countries, in the future this situation may change, but now it is so.

[DrBeer]

Both suspended and launched, production is not in the combat zone, as well as a significant part of the raw materials sources (industries).

In Ukraine, two companies prior to the start of the operation were cleaning Russian neon for the needs of microelectronics - Cryoin in Odessa and Ingaz in Mariupol. I think Ukraine will hardly be able to launch a company in Mariupol in the foreseeable future, there are also doubts about Odessa.

And now bother to provide evidence that all the neon produced by Ukraine was just a post-treatment of the Russian one? But just not links to fake generators like RushToday or other fake media from Russia?

It is not difficult to confirm this information with a link, it is more difficult to find a link that is not affiliated with Russia and which you can trust.

For example here is an article in a Spanish newspaper.

Ukraine provides half of the world's supply of neon, which is necessary for the production of semiconductors. Neon is used in lasers, which are used to create patterns on chips. The Odessa company "Cryoin" played an important role in deliveries of neon to the USA, South Korea and Japan. Gases generated as a by-product in Russian steel mills were supplied to Cryoin, where they were then purified.

Quote from the article at the link, highlighted by me.

The article smells very strongly, no, not for biased, but absolutely about the Russian. The result of the article - well, where are you without Russia!? Would they lie if the truth was reprinted in Russian media
https://inosmi.ru/20220531/resursy-254354103.html

By the way, there is not a word about the fact that Russian resources are the main raw material for all neon production in Ukraine. It only says that 1 out of 2 plants supplied products from the Russian steel industry. "Ukraine did not produce neon itself, but purified Russian - your words"? Maybe you didn't understand the question? Ok, I repeat once again - indicate a trustworthy source containing verified information that everything, as you indicated, Ukrainian production works on Russian raw materials, and without it it cannot produce neon? Did you mean that in your original post? If not, then there is no particular problem, only part of the raw materials for 1 plant "fell off", which can be compensated by supplies from other countries - Germany, Slovenia, Italy ... Or are there steel mills only in Russia?

I can only add, I stand by the truth in any situation, that Ukrainian companies, in some cases, partially used Russian raw materials, both for part of their needs, and on a contract basis, for Russian producers, performing post-treatment of primary raw materials (a by-product of metallurgy) . But Russian raw materials were not of any critical importance. By the way, you forgot to mention that the article says "Ukraine provides half of the world's neon supplies." Half is 50%, or do you think differently?

The plant located in Odessa will be launched. The plant in Mariupol, after being freed from terrorists, will also be put into operation - the country and business need money.
I am not ready to say how much the Neon plant suffered from terrorists, but if it cannot quickly enter into operation, it is possible that production will be increased in Odessa. Yes, there will be a noticeable decrease in supplies, but the world market will now perfectly understand that dealing with such terrorist suppliers as Russia should never be done again.

I did not go deep into the technology of neon production, as far as I understand, this is not a very environmentally friendly event. Therefore, in principle, its production can be established within a year in many countries of the world, but there is no queue of those who want to. In fact, at present, inert gases are a strong lever of pressure from Russia on unfriendly countries, in the future this situation may change, but now it is so.

I also cannot say that I am the chief engineer of the neon production workshop, but there is a quite accessible procedure for obtaining neon from the by-products of metallurgical production. In fact, neon is not mined, it is one of the by-products that is formed as a result of the liquefaction and separation of ... simple air, in the metallurgical industry. The primary raw material is a neon-hel mixture, which is a by-product of the above process.

But the separation of helium and neon is carried out due to adsorption and condensation. The adsorption method is based on the ability of neon, unlike helium, to be adsorbed by activated carbon cooled with liquid nitrogen. The condensation method is based on neon freezing when the mixture is cooled.
It doesn't look like any toxic inhibitors or additives are used here, it's just that the production is very specific and the equipment is not cheap.

[Ozero]

In my opinion, the Russian economy will not collapse due to the imposition of Western sanctions.  

However, Russia is threatened with the "archaization" of the economy.  

At the same time, cars, trains, planes, and trains were produced in the USSR.  All this functioned without the use of modern electronics.  The Russians have the opportunity to gradually restore their heavy industry and even machine tool building. The economy will function.

However, in the field of microelectronics and modern technologies, Russia are hopelessly behind the countries of the Western world.

Of course, in Russia they can strain themselves, restore the old technologies of the last century and be content with domestic goods that the leading countries have not used for half a century. Russian soldiers who robbed civilian homes in Irpen and Bucha in Ukraine were surprised at the toilet bowls in private houses and the interiors in these houses in general. They don't know these modern conveniences. Of course, not everyone in Russia lives like this. In Moscow, St. Petersburg and several other cities they live there like the rest of the civilized world.
Therefore, I don’t understand one thing: why was it necessary to attack a peaceful neighboring country at all, destroy all the infrastructure there, kill its civilians, and for such pleasure be subjected to harsh international sanctions that isolate Russians from the civilized world and set Russia back in development for many decades back. At the same time, here now to prove that Russia in its current difficult situation will be able to survive. Do Russians take pleasure in hurting others, or in making life much more difficult for them? What kind of masochistic nation is this? Of course, why be surprised if after that everything Russian is being destroyed in Ukraine in order not to hear and communicate with Russians in the future.

[amishmanish]

US has gas, US has money. Europe has money and Russia has gas. US is pushing war. Russia is saving its leftover ego. Europe wants to be US little brother and Ukraine is burning.. Russian economy will batter down, inflation will pull down Europe. US might finally win over communists But at the cost of unstable Europe.  Who will benefit from this? May be china and middle east, both producers of goods and oil.

[zasad@]

US has gas, US has money. Europe has money and Russia has gas. US is pushing war. Russia is saving its leftover ego. Europe wants to be US little brother and Ukraine is burning.. Russian economy will batter down, inflation will pull down Europe. US might finally win over communists But at the cost of unstable Europe.  Who will benefit from this? May be china and middle east, both producers of goods and oil.

All European sanctions that are directed against Russia will harm Europe more than Russia.
If Europe wants gas independence, then it will require billions of investments and at least 7-10 years to build infrastructure. And then they will be depending on the USA.

__
Show me at least one communist in Russia

[kryptqnick]

I am not sure this prediction of -30% by the end of the year is legit, to be honest, but it's good if it is. That being said, if exports are up by so much, why is the prediction so negative?
I think that the Western countries want to show and prove that their sanctions are serious and are working, while Ukraine is pressuring them for imposing much more because the idea is to help stop the war, and if Russia keeps going with the war, it means the current sanctions aren't enough. Also, while initially it looked like Russian economy was exploding, they managed to stabilize the ruble and 4 months into the war they can still afford it, although the consumer prices did grow significantly for Russians, so it's not like sanctions didn't do anything.

[niceli]

If I get it right, if you sell 100 of something for 1 dollar each, but then the prices change and you sell 50 of that same thing but for 10 each, you will make a lot more money. This is what happened to Russia, sure they are probably selling a lot less, but they are selling for a lot more money. Look at their fiat, their fiat (ruble) got a lot more powerful against dollar, why? Because they are doing fine and this war didn't hurt the general economy of the nation. One key reason is the fact that oil went up, but another and probably even bigger reason is the fact that the whole world was filled with oligarchs and russian money, and all of those people turned their money into ruble and stored it in Russia. So all those tens of billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars that was used by russian wealthy people all around the world, all went into ruble to make it stronger, wasn't the purpose and they just wanted to put it somewhere safe, but it did helped ruble for sure.

[DrBeer]

I am not sure this prediction of -30% by the end of the year is legit, to be honest, but it's good if it is. That being said, if exports are up by so much, why is the prediction so negative?
I think that the Western countries want to show and prove that their sanctions are serious and are working, while Ukraine is pressuring them for imposing much more because the idea is to help stop the war, and if Russia keeps going with the war, it means the current sanctions aren't enough. Also, while initially it looked like Russian economy was exploding, they managed to stabilize the ruble and 4 months into the war they can still afford it, although the consumer prices did grow significantly for Russians, so it's not like sanctions didn't do anything.

Understand a simple fact - Russia imagined itself, for some reason, as a significant country, and decided to "bring everything back", in fact, to recreate one of the most bastard states - the USSR, and gain control over all the former countries, the socialist camp, during the Cold War. As always, Russia fights only against the weakest, those who cannot stand up for themselves, this is such "Russian heroism." If not, give at least 1 example, Russian attacks on some country that would be commensurate in power? But I'm sure no one will give a single example ...
So, for some reason, they decided that Ukraine is such a suitable object, all the more so as an example of how to deal with thieves presidents. This scared Putin very much, because. for him, the overthrow will be even worse than for Gaddafi ... And if now in Ukraine, by the forces of Ukrainians and Western partners, the new brown plague of the 21st century is not defeated, rashism, rashism will go further west. The next ones will be the Baltic countries, Poland, Georgia again, and many others. And one of the main ways to destroy rashism is precisely economic sanctions, which should destroy the economy of the terrorist country, as much as possible and preferably irreversibly. Well, or soon famine, war, hundreds of thousands of deaths will come to other countries, on the bayonets of rashism. The choice is ours, what we choose - peace, tranquility, order, creation or death, devastation, deepest stagnation, and other "joys of rashism"

[NotATether]

Russia has lived under economic sanctions for so many years I don't know what sanctions they propose to impose on them that have not already been done.

The country has adapted to sanctions and find loopholes around them. But the Russian citizens have not. You can't just close down all US markets in the area and expect them to suddenly switch their preferences to closer-to-home alternatives.

[pooya87]

I think that the Western countries want to show and prove that their sanctions are serious and are working, while Ukraine is pressuring them for imposing much more because the idea is to help stop the war,

It's is both funny and sad to see how Ukraine was abused by them with the promise of help while in truth they didn't do anything. Even the sanctions against Russia was a joke and they were promising actual military involvement if Russia invaded!!!

Some argue that Ukraine wasn't part of NATO but those people should check out what Lithuania was told. They basically told them that if Russia invaded their country they won't help them at all. In best case scenario they would send some aid after 180 days. By that time nothing would be left of Lithuania!!!
Even funnier than that is Finland and Sweden wanting to join this useless treaty.

[galambo]

It's is both funny and sad to see how Ukraine was abused by them with the promise of help while in truth they didn't do anything. Even the sanctions against Russia was a joke and they were promising actual military involvement if Russia invaded!!!

Some argue that Ukraine wasn't part of NATO but those people should check out what Lithuania was told. They basically told them that if Russia invaded their country they won't help them at all. In best case scenario they would send some aid after 180 days. By that time nothing would be left of Lithuania!!!
Even funnier than that is Finland and Sweden wanting to join this useless treaty.

That's biggest mistake Ukarine did i.e. they rely on USA promise. USA has many times betrayed his friends and its better to stay away from USA fake friendship. Every country should look for his own interest. Even if the war in Ukraine stopped, the damage done to infrastructure will take years to rebuild.
In 1971, same was done to Pakistan by USA. They keep on saying that we will send military support to Pakistan to help insurgency in west Pakistan (now Bangladesh) but that military aid never arrived.

[Ozero]

I think that the Western countries want to show and prove that their sanctions are serious and are working, while Ukraine is pressuring them for imposing much more because the idea is to help stop the war,

It's is both funny and sad to see how Ukraine was abused by them with the promise of help while in truth they didn't do anything. Even the sanctions against Russia was a joke and they were promising actual military involvement if Russia invaded!!!

Some argue that Ukraine wasn't part of NATO but those people should check out what Lithuania was told. They basically told them that if Russia invaded their country they won't help them at all. In best case scenario they would send some aid after 180 days. By that time nothing would be left of Lithuania!!!
Even funnier than that is Finland and Sweden wanting to join this useless treaty.

You are slightly distorting the actual events. Ukraine has successfully resisted a full-scale military invasion of Russia for 125 days. To date, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the following have been destroyed:
- 35,250 Russian soldiers and officers,
- 1567 tanks,
- 3704 armored vehicles,
- 217 aircraft,
- 185 helicopters,
- 778 artillery systems,
- 243 multiple launch rocket systems,
- 102 air defense systems,
- 2589 automotive equipment,
- 636 UAVs,
- 14 ships and boats, etc.
It can be said that in four months Russia has not achieved any significant military successes in Ukraine. However, the "second army of the world" has already lost a significant part of its military potential in Ukraine. This happened not only because of the professionalism of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also because of the serious assistance from the NATO countries. True, Ukraine expects more, and it is slowly doing so.

NATO has never promised Ukraine real military assistance with its soldiers, because it does not want the Third World War to break out.

The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry recently criticized a long-established plan for NATO military assistance to the country in the event of a surprise Russian invasion. He allows the occupation of this small country and the expulsion of the aggressor for 180 days. Having seen what the Russians are doing on the territory of Ukraine, there, of course, they do not want to fall under occupation, even temporarily. Therefore, they demand to reconsider this plan.

[Renampun]

US has gas, US has money. Europe has money and Russia has gas. US is pushing war. Russia is saving its leftover ego. Europe wants to be US little brother and Ukraine is burning.. Russian economy will batter down, inflation will pull down Europe. US might finally win over communists But at the cost of unstable Europe.  Who will benefit from this? May be china and middle east, both producers of goods and oil.

Indirectly, the US and Russia are actually at war now, but Europe and Ukraine are the victims...

with the scarcity of European oil and gas, countries that did not intervene in the war, such as China and the Middle East, which had stable gas reserves, had massive purchases from Europe. this will last a long time because the US continues to push Europe to hold on to the sanctions they imposed on Russia.

[jostorres]

I think that the Western countries want to show and prove that their sanctions are serious and are working, while Ukraine is pressuring them for imposing much more because the idea is to help stop the war,

It's is both funny and sad to see how Ukraine was abused by them with the promise of help while in truth they didn't do anything. Even the sanctions against Russia was a joke and they were promising actual military involvement if Russia invaded!!!

Some argue that Ukraine wasn't part of NATO but those people should check out what Lithuania was told. They basically told them that if Russia invaded their country they won't help them at all. In best case scenario they would send some aid after 180 days. By that time nothing would be left of Lithuania!!!
Even funnier than that is Finland and Sweden wanting to join this useless treaty.

You could imagine it as a useless treaty, there are many many Russian trolls all around the world and we are used to you guys and it's fine. But, the reality is that that "useless" treaty is the reason why Russia can't do whatever they want with western nations, and yes they may have attacked Ukraine, but where do you think all those drones and guns and armors and food and all the other things came from?

Even though Ukraine is not officially in Nato, we are talking about TENS OF BILLIONS of dollars worth of help to Ukraine during this war. Sure maybe American soldiers didn't suit up and started to shoot Russians, but they certainly sent a lot of guns and armor and many other things, including food and clothes as well, which is more than enough to say they helped.

[ChiBitCTy]

The headline states that exports are on a decline, but your message body states that exports are up 64%, so I'm a bit confused by what you mean here.

It's easier said than done! When the import of a country is down, it means two things -

1. The country is on the way of becoming independent
2. Their forex reserves are saved from being depleted faster

These are the indicators of a strong economy and not a weak one. Russia has been supplying around 14% of world's oil and gas requirement since long. So it is not very easy to make them bend down in the face of sanctions.

Most hilariously when the sanctions have been imposed by a country responsible for most number of wars in the history of humankind.

The world must end of dollar dominance which gives US an upper hand on almost everything.

Lol. If you think that an country, especially one of the size Russia can become independent of all other nations, you're sorely mistaken.  No country can become a world leader without interacting with other nations.  Do you realize the importance of importing and exporting, which would not be possible if they are truly independent. 

Your hate for the US is clear, and it's blinding you from the truth.  Why must the world end the dominance of the dollar?  Do you not realize this was done by everyone else making it the worlds reserve currency?  It's not like the US said "hey we want the worlds reserve currency and so then it must be".   The United States has the worlds best economy, and this is not changing anytime soon. Sorry, as much as you clearly don't want to hear that or believe it, it's the truth.

"Most hilariously when the sanctions have been imposed by a country responsible for most number of wars in the history of humankind". This is not true.  Also, many wars the US has been in has been due to the aiding of other nations.