What is the future of bitcoin? Commodity, currency or smth else?

[wxa7115]

It looks like any cryptocurrency will not be able to replace current FIAT because any of them is finite. "Money" should have an unlimited future because the number of inhabitants of the planet is increasing and the socially produced product is increasing. Now bitcoin is more like a reserved commodity for part of the population. Those who do not buy bitcoin will be able to use other cryptocurrencies. It seems that the currency that will be in circulation and will be affordable, that currency will have a chance to become the main cryptocurrency in the future.

It is unlikely the fiat system would disappear, governments simply derive too much power from it to let it go so easily, after all taxes tax your income but by printing fiat whenever they want governments can tax your wealth.

Bitcoin in the best case scenario will become a parallel system widely used by a great deal of the population and accepted by governments simply because they do not have the power to completely stop it, they will try to regulate it as much as possible, which is something we are already seeing, but the regulations would not be enough to decrease its usage.

[lenaza2022]

At the same time, this confirms that 0.00000001 is not very convenient for practical use in everyday life, and also that either Fiat or another cryptocurrency will exist firmly. Fiat will be strongly protected, inflation is inevitable in the near future. But even further 0.00000001 is not very convenient to use. Today, in the usual sense, prices vary from 0.01 - 1000000.

Why would one satoshi be impractical or unconvenient in everyday life? Or, say, 1 mBTC?

When talking about bitcoin as a currency for circulation, it is OK to take into account the habits of users (a wide range of buyers), including what numbers people are used to see today on store shelves and online sites. In most cases, these are dollars and euros, and prices between 0-10,000 units. The circulation of bitcoin strengthens its position, so the point is about bitcoin circulation, demand and user habits.

Satoshi is good for asset but it is difficult for presenting price (on sites) as far as it is common to see numbers 0.01-100000 (usd/eur/etc) now

There are a lot of different fiat currencies currently on the market, and their base values are quite different. You seem to not be aware of this.
According to current exchange rates, for example, one South Korean Won (KRW) is equal to just a little over 2 satoshi. With that in mind, why do you think presenting prices in satoshi is more difficult than in other currencies?

Yes. There are a lot of different fiat currencies currently on the market. But most often we see USD and EUR in the Internet. Never the less where people are, they need to choose one currency in order to make a deal (to buy and sell). Usually it is USD or EUR. That is why presenting prices in satoshi is quite new.

[franky1]

concepts the topic creator needs to understand about bitcoin and his words in his post.

1. bitcoin is not a commodity, nor never shall be
   - a commodity is a raw material used to make other products..
   - bitcoin is not this.
   - bitcoin is an asset not a commodity
   - people compare bitcoin to gold which is a commodity.. AND an asset
   - gold sits on TWO markets. commodity (manufacturing supply) AND asset (investment)
   - bitcoin follows the gold asset properties(there is a cost to mine it, and its rare)
   - bitcoin does not follow the commodity properties(conductive, malleable)

2. bitcoin is a currency.
   - anything that is used as a medium of exchange is a currency.
   - giving people vodka for helping out/being neighbourly chores =vodka is a currency
   - even sex is used as a currency in some relationships
   - if you are talking about bitcoin becoming a FIAT currency, forget it.
   - if you are talking about being accepted as a common(legal tender) currency.. it has

3. bitcoin is not meant to replace fiat.
   - bitcoin is not meant to take away the government currency and replace it
   - bitcoin is meant to be an open second option,. a choice. an exit, a hedge against fiat
   - there will never be a scenario of a "one world currency". there are hundreds of fiat currencies
  
4. the single satoshi is as useful as a single penny of fiat. (not very much)
   - 1btc is as useful as 100m pennies (not everyone can afford $1m or $30k in some countries)
   - 1btc does not exist in code or data. its a human visual construct for graphic easy display
   - no one is forced to buy a whole btc like no one is forced to buy a whole tonne of gold
   - there are other visual construct 'basket allotments' like 1bit (100sats)
   - 1bit can be compared to $1(visual construct not value) with 100 smaller parts if needed.
   - bitcoin can achieve 20,999,999,976,900 bits ($20trillion visual construct comparison not value)

5. the overall concept to think about
   - each person can have ~2500 bits if shared equally with all 8+ bill population
   - the concept is not to have enough units where 1bit is enough for a loaf of bread
   - its not to be abundant to give people plentiful amounts of units.
   - its concept is to be deflationary where by the conversion to other abundant currencies
   - value of set units become worth more due to the lack of abundance of bitcoin units
   - when fiat create more fiat. bitcoin is worth more $ value in comparison.
   - there is enough units even if planetary population went up
   - if population grows to 20billion people, bitcoin  1000 investible 'bit' units
   - where those units have a 2.5x value compared to population of 8bill

[lenaza2022]

1...5.

Thank you for your point of view.
People have already choosed between investment and currency. The word "commodity" is commonly used for bitcoin meaning  in this forum. )))

[franky1]

1...5.

Thank you for your point of view.
People have already choosed between investment and currency. The word "commodity" is commonly used for bitcoin meaning  in this forum. )))

even investments are a currency.
swapping shares is a currency transaction.
behind the scenes of institutional banks. they trade insurance certificates, debt agreements(mortgages) and other things. these are their currencies.

as for commodity.. pfft. nah majority call bitcoin an asset..

its why i made my post as some newbies need education in common economic definitions before they go down rabbit holes using the wrong terminology and then creating some conscious bias to stick with their wrong definitions because they see other newbies using the wrong terminology

EG
in the real material world a wallet holds bank notes and coins. where as a key ring holds keys.
in bitcoin a wallet holds keys. and the blockchain holds the coins.

yet a decade ago people with less experience of understanding definitions chose the wrong words to describe how bitcoin features work. and so we got stuck in the badly worded metaphors

..
we dont need to start having alot of newbie users calling it a commodity(wrongly) and then have the bias of following the trends where people start preferring to call it a commodity just because they seen someone else call it a commodity. even if technically and metaphorically it is not a commodity

[lenaza2022]

1...5.

Thank you for your point of view.
People have already choosed between investment and currency. The word "commodity" is commonly used for bitcoin meaning  in this forum. )))

even investments are a currency...

OK, question was about the role of bitcoin from the personal point of view. Somebody prefers to keep this asset, another is interesting in circulation, exchanging and spending.

[Rengga Jati]

It looks like any cryptocurrency will not be able to replace current FIAT because any of them is finite.

Why should replaced? I don't think it will be.
No need to replace fiat, Bitcoin has got its high trust from its investors, holders, and also many other parties. In fact, the value of Bitcoin has been growing so far. We don't need to make it as a currency only or a commodity asset only. In fact, Bitcoin can be both as long as there is no ban from a country. We have seen that there are different things considered by each country that they may support or even ban Bitcoin. But so far, Bitcoin is accepted much in this world,

[mk4]

OK, question was about the role of bitcoin from the personal point of view. Somebody prefers to keep this asset, another is interesting in circulation, exchanging and spending.

Yes, because that's the point. No one gets to tell you what Bitcoin is "officially" for. If you think it's a currency, then go use it as a currency. If you think it's an investment, then go use it as an investment. Etc. Freedom at its best.

[lenaza2022]

OK, question was about the role of bitcoin from the personal point of view. Somebody prefers to keep this asset, another is interesting in circulation, exchanging and spending.

Yes, because that's the point. No one gets to tell you what Bitcoin is "officially" for. If you think it's a currency, then go use it as a currency. If you think it's an investment, then go use it as an investment. Etc. Freedom at its best.

What does back bitcoin? It is more or less a game to consider that it is backed by demand. If new demand is "0" then the value of bitcoin may be "0" and it will be difficult to consider it as an investment or currency. If we imagine that all bitcoins are sold then new demand could appear only if bitcoin has been already treated as a currency, got its environment and law regulations (taxes, etc). Today fiat is used to buy bitcoin on the market, then bitcoin circularizes in buy/sell process, then it comes out to be changed for fiat. Bitcoin seems to be a method. Method does no need to be baked. Method needs areas for implementation. Otherwise the method is useless. That is why the bitcoin´s implementation as a currency could keep it safe.

[BlackHatCoiner]

What does back bitcoin? It is more or less a game to consider that it is backed by demand.

Everything, by the same reasoning, is backed by demand. Houses, stocks, bonds, metals, food, guns, vehicles, goods etc., everything.

If new demand is "0" then the value of bitcoin may be "0" and it will be difficult to consider it as an investment or currency.

Again, that's true for everything. If there's no demand for a thing, it has no value.

If we imagine that all bitcoins are sold then new demand could appear only if bitcoin has been already treated as a currency

It's already treated as currency.

Today fiat is used to buy bitcoin on the market, then bitcoin circularizes in buy/sell process, then it come out to be changed for fiat.

Bitcoin isn't always exchanged for fiat. As said, it's a currency.

[franky1]

What does back bitcoin? It is more or less a game to consider that it is backed by demand.

Everything, by the same reasoning, is backed by demand. Houses, stocks, bonds, metals, food, guns, vehicles, goods etc., everything.

basic economics class here for the two people quoted above

imagine there are instead 2 measures..
VALUE and price..

people never want to sell at a loss.. in housing, stocks, shares. bitcoin.

no one on the planet can currently mine for less than say $25k a coin..
no one on the planet can buy a house for less than $XX a square foot
no one on the planet can buy a share of Tesla for less than its business collateral

this is the hidden value line.
EG it costs people atleast $900 to mine an ounce of gold. this is golds value line

above this value line. is the speculative more volatile fluff. the moving price.
some people think its worth more then others due to MANY factors. like their local/regional costs of acquiring it being more then other regions. or the usability/features.
this premium above value is where the price sits.

EG golds speculative price might be like $1.8k. but its store of value "backed" by about $900

so when gold is say $2k people think that its price is way above value and a premium and thus wont buy it when its too high. just like bitcoin peaked at $70k/coin when its value was more like $25k

bitcoins value is backed by the mining and acquisition costs.. the price is speculative amount above value and is the "supply/demand" game. of many factors or personal sentiment, regional costs and functionality

If new demand is "0" then the value of bitcoin may be "0" and it will be difficult to consider it as an investment or currency.

Again, that's true for everything. If there's no demand for a thing, it has no value.

even if there is no new investors.. the current community might still see value in its utility.
its not a scenario of bitcoin drops to zero if no one new jumps in.. its already an active community of people using it.

EG do fiat currencies go to zero if their net import/export shows they have less imports than exports. or the opposite.. no

because the currency continues to function if all currency is just stirred around domestically(current comunity) without imports/exports happening.
..
if there was no demand at all. even from current users. first you will see the hashrate drop because miners will give up. the remaining miners will get more reward. which might then re-energise some demand as they can get more reward meaning get more incomes while the price is not yet dropped too far.
then this may cause the price to drop due to those sells. and yes eventually it could drop more and more if the desire fades..

but bitcoin has more function and utility than just "hoarding". its actually a useful currency in of itself. its function is not to just be a bridge to fiat. it can be a function currency without having to ever return to fiat. i personally have coins from 2012 and in that decade most of my transactions have not been back to fiat. but buying goods and services in btc.
i have also used btc to do other practical things unrelated to fiat too

[BlackHatCoiner]

this is the hidden value line.
EG it costs people atleast $900 to mine an ounce of gold. this is golds value line

Isn't it more proper to say that there's cost? There's no "hidden value line", it just costs $X to mine gold, it costs $Y to make a house, it costs a frequently variable amount of money to mine a bitcoin.

bitcoins value is backed by the mining and acquisition costs..

But, the mining and acquisition costs in bitcoin depend (although not solely) on the demand. Difficulty does change according to the demand. Mining bitcoin isn't the same as mining gold, and therefore not a good example of the "minimum price", which is, as said, the cost.

[franky1]

this is the hidden value line.
EG it costs people atleast $900 to mine an ounce of gold. this is golds value line

Isn't it more proper to say that there's cost? There's no "hidden value line", it just costs $X to mine gold, it costs $Y to make a house, it costs a frequently variable amount of money to mine a bitcoin.

bitcoins value is backed by the mining and acquisition costs..

But, the mining and acquisition costs in bitcoin depend (although not solely) on the demand. Difficulty does change according to the demand. Mining bitcoin isn't the same as mining gold, and therefore not a good example of the "minimum price", which is, as said, the cost.

i was talking about the bottomline.. the ultimate bottom. (emphasis when i said 'no one on the planet')
yes someone in iceland/kazahkstan can mine bitcoin for $25k/coin. but there is no one below them that can mine for less
where as japans mining costs are like $65k+

houses might sell for $5XX-$2XXX a square metre. but no one can get a house for $5 a square metre
if you can work out the bottomline square metre cost of the planet you can establish a new bottomline for the real estate market VALUE..
where by you can then tell if a house is priced well or at a premium against value.
even in just america.. it may cost more in california to build a house than it doe sin ohio.

it may cost more in texas to mine for gold than alaska.. but the ultimate bottom is the important thing. the number no one no where can acquire for right now

by taking the most absolute bottomline on the planet no one can get for less.. that becomes the new "zero"
because no one can get it for less at the time.

if there was no demand. its not an instant $0 of the coin.. its a process.. the $25k minimum slowly drops as people drop out. and like i explained this slow drop is not a certainty of being $0 short term because the drop itself slowly going down can infact re-energise some desire/demand and thus keep the price active longer or re-birth a new demand.

and as i said the value line is not based on all mining cost of the planet. its the bottom line cost no one on the planet can get for less.. all things above the bottom line is the speculative stuff based on regional variances, sentiments, supply and demand stuff.

..
personally i have coin from 2012 ($6 a coin) . but i do not value it at $6 anymore.. but i also do not value it at the current price. nor value it at the top ATH potential recently of $70k

i see my coins VALUE is a minimum of about $25k right now because right now. there is no way that i can lose because all prices around the planet being offered are above $25k, whether it be mining, market exchanging, or purchasing/selling goods or services. no one is valuing bitcoin at less than $25k.

in short
bitcoin is backed by atleast $25k of bottomline value and ~$5k of unbacked volatile speculation

..
lets take someone in japan..
their mining cost is $65k. but thats not japans "value". because in japan. they can still acquire bitcoin for $30k on an exchange or OTC deal with a iceland miner for $25k+
so japans value again is ~$25k as thats the ultimate bottom

the numbers above this bottom is the SPECULATIVE PRICE. which is variable

(emphasis. when i say mining cost and i say no one on the planet.. im talking about the minimum cost.. not the variable per region..)

[kryptqnick]

Op is saying money should have unlimited future, but I am not so sure that in the future money as such will continue to exist. Humanity, at some point (although unlikely during our lifetime), can get to the point when there are enough resources for everyone and they are distributed in a way that nobody is without food, shelter and medication, and something like reputation, academic performance and things like that function instead of currency.
In the meantime, Bitcoin is money in El Salvador and in some other places around the world (crypto-friendly cities). Many hodl Bitcoin long-term as an investment, but it doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't both be money and investment. And it can coexist with fiat and CBDCs.

[BlackHatCoiner]

but the ultimate bottom is the important thing.

But, there's not a nearly invariable ultimate bottom in bitcoin, that's what I pointed out. Difficulty adjustments change that temporary bottom every 2 weeks, but difficulty adjustments are affected by demand. It is, therefore, clear that the demand does affect the minimum cost, which doesn't happen with any other commodity or asset.

As you rightly said, there's a bottom value for gold, houses etc., but not for bitcoin. And I think you agree with me here:

if there was no demand. its not an instant $0 of the coin.. its a process.. the $25k minimum slowly drops as people drop out. and like i explained this slow drop is not a certainty of being $0 short term because the drop itself slowly going down can infact re-energise some desire/demand and thus keep the price active longer or re-birth a new demand.

[franky1]

no one ever said the backed value is fixed forever..
even backed value changes,, just alot more slowly. because its alot more stable compared to price.

the whims of the daily price do not impact the bottomline value as quickly/easily/harshly as you pretend/think it does

anyway more examples of how other things have value and their variance
just like FIAT is backed by pretty much laws about taxes and wages, meaning backed by minimum wage value, which too is not fixed forever..

even in gold there is a variable bottom too..
the main cost for golds bottom is diesel. aswell as labour and that changes too..
the rise in diesel cost and the lack of labour during covid affected the bottomline.. for the cheapest region..

but that is a separate measure from the market price which speculated upto over double+ the bottomline

and in housing there is a variable bottom too..
the main cost for housing bottom is material and labour. and that changes too..
but the housing real estate market price is not the same as the build price.

now.
if you can calculate all the variables. and put them into a spreadsheet.
and then instead of looking at the DAILY bottom.. you widen your vision and open your eyes a little bit more. and look at the variables of a more wider timeframe than you are used to looking at. and then find the bottom of that.. then thats the bottom..
..
here is the thing..
bitcoins DAILY MARKET PRICE.. is volatile.. . the PRICE is not value. its not the thing that is backed.
its speculative.. highly speculative and highly variable..


below the price is a more stable VALUE that alters much more slowly. and is more stable. and its what people use as a base point value to then associate if the market price is near value or highly inflated bubble premium

if you do the math.. at the $0.04/kw and the hashrate now.. its about $29kish/btc..
value is not TODAYS mining cost of ~$28k-$29k in cheapest regions
..
but here is the thing.. even with the hashrate variable and difficulty. the long term stable value for many months now has been around the same 200-210exahash.. for a long while now.
(5%) variance.
where by the even longer term value is below the $28k level.....
yep i said $25k.... not today or this quarters $28k+

i must emphasise this now..
i have coins for years.. i do not associate them to the daily whims of price changes and daily hashrate changes. i use more stable measure. a more stable base point that has existed LONG TERM..
i know you want to cry blue murder about daily and fortnightly variables. but you are thinking short term and only wanting to see short term charts..
look beyond your short term vision...


but there is a big difference between the volatile daily price speculation swing of $30k-$70k we have seen in the prices.. vs the value bottom of $20k-$25k bottom over the last couple years

whereby that smaller variable of $20k to $25k value has seen a more stable and consistent rise from $20k to $25k over the last few years. (give or take a few percent)

again.. for the last time
i am not quoting bitcoins TODAYS price or todays hashrate cost($28k+) to be "value"
nor the mining cost of japan($65k) as value
nor the mining cost of hobby miners on residential electric cost in america as value..

i am saying the ultimate bottom of $25k
becasue.. major asic farms that do massive asic mining do not buy electric at the whims of the day. they have quarterly/year long contracts where they mine the same electric amount(same cost) for months/years)

do not confuse todays(short term narrow vision) mining cost variable with what i have said. as you are just trying to be pedantic and not reading it when i said no one one the planet can mine for less than $25k

there are alot of things that need to go wrong to really push the underlying value down to $0

[Renampun]

This is what makes Bitcoin very unique, everyone is free to use it according to their needs...

Bitcoin as a currency or Bitcoin as a commodity, essentially Bitcoin is Bitcoin. I have received my customers' payments in Bitcoin several times (I sell women's accessories) and I also frequently trade in Bitcoin (on exchange). Bitcoin is both, cannot be separated.

[franky1]

This is what makes Bitcoin very unique, everyone is free to use it according to their needs...

Bitcoin as a currency or Bitcoin as a commodity asset, essentially Bitcoin is Bitcoin. I have received my customers' payments in Bitcoin several times (I sell women's accessories) and I also frequently trade in Bitcoin (on exchange). Bitcoin is both, cannot be separated.

FTFY

other examples i have seen.
some educational teachers have awarded students with allotments of sats depending on their exam results.
students have not price associated the reward but instead tallied the number of sats as their test score result to compare to other class mates

EG 500sat per % whereby if getting 98% means their address would show as being 49,000sat
which they all see the classes outputs of the teachers tx to see how many people got 100% by seeing how many people got the full 50,000sats. without any names associated with the scores.
thus transparent testing and result sharing without revealing personal information..

later on, these students can accumulate alot of sats the more exams they do. and when the graduate. they can, if they want sell/spend their scores. thus another advantage beyond transparent sharing of test results without identity association

[BlackHatCoiner]

even in gold there is a variable bottom too..

Yes, but it doesn't change based on the demand, whereas in bitcoin if there's less demand, there's tendency to drop its cost of production too, and dozens of other factors similar to gold. The significant part is that gold's cost is not related with its demand; definitely not directly connected.

i know you want to cry blue murder about daily and fortnightly variables. but you are thinking short term and only wanting to see short term charts..
look beyond your short term vision...

Difficulty is rather a long-term parameter. Ten years ago, you could mine a block with a GPU. Currently that's definitely not feasible. That's because of the demand. On the other hand, gold, while not varying much from its 2012's market value, has still the same cost, regardless of its demand.

But, yeah, what does that idiot, alt-girl has to provide to this discussion anyways? 

[franky1]

your thinking short term.. widen your vision just a little bit.. dont be narrow minded

also when you say gold. in the final sentence of that paragraph.. you mention the market value (facepalm)..
forget the market price. stop and i mean this stop confusing the volatile market price of short term changes to be what is being discussed.

as you yourself said no one is able to mine bitcoin at GPU rates.. bitcoin value is AS YOU SAY(maybe you do finally understand something) that bitcoin is definitely not feasible to be valued below the GPU rates($0-$6)
so we both agree bitcoins value is not feasible to be $0.. right?

ok move forward a few steps.  and you will see the wide picture emerge that bitcoin value is not TODAYS price nor previous ATH.  but is instead a number far below anything anyone has bought or mined at for a long while

ill emphasise this..
alot has to go wrong and i mean alot, to bring the value back into range of the GPU rate.
its not something you will ever see happen over night nor over a fortnight nor over multiple months.

where even the changes of the last few days/weeks/months of price or hashrate cost of short term or difficulty has not even nudged against the bottomline i stated ($25k) for a LONG WHILE


anyway
back to the topic.

bitcoin is a currency by default as is pretty much anything. even sex can be used as a currency in relationships/nightclubs/social events

but bitcoin is more then that. its more then just an economic measure based off fiat. its a utility all of its own with features more easily useful that the fiat world.

in fiat if i wanted to set up a off shore account or a family trust fund. i usually need bank managers, lawyers and legal paperwork and paying fee's to those middlemen to authorise it.

in bitcoin i can self- create a multisig and fund it. and self-decide who to pass the keys too.. and its done. all set up at no cost, no headache and no legal requirements.

..
bitcoin can be used as a token. a visual representation of something else.
EG in schools it can be used as a 'gold star' system. where kids can earn gold stars(xsats) where at "parents evening"(parent,teacher conference) the teacher and parent can see how many sats the kid has earned. and compare it to other students to see if they are the good or bad kid of the class (all without putting a financial value to the sats, nor naming or shaming the least sat awarded kid publicly)..

there are many many more utilities not mentioned.