⚽UEFA Champions League Discussion Thread -- 2023/24 | Prelim Qualifiers

[morvillz7z]

I've sealed my first parlay of these early qualifiers before odds crash any further. It's not exactly what i wanted, but it feels solid, i just don't see any upsets happening. I've got Qarabag, Hacken, and Slovan to win @1.83, but should've probably included Ferenvaros as well. Klaksvik, though, has 16 wins out of 16 matches in The Faroe Islands league, averaging close to 3 goals per game. They'll get trashed, i've no doubt about it, but these are some impressive stats nonetheless.

Interesting to see if any of these teams starting from the first q. round will get the UCL theme song played for them Lol. Out of the list above only Maccabi Haifa made the group stage last year, Qarabag fell short losing in the playoff.

<...> And despite that I folllow it for many years, I see some team names that is new for me. Hacken from Sweden and Urartu from Armenia. In recent years it was common that champions of these countries were Malmo and Pyunik.

You should check out the conference league teams in the first round if you haven't already. I swear some of these names sound so random, almost made up: Egnatia, Niedercorn, Penybont, Cosmos...

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[LTU_btc]

9 qualifier games today and plenty of options to bet. I'm going big with Zalgiris ML against Struga @1.50. Odds isn't high, but I'm very confident about Zalgiris win. Lincoln Red Imps - Qarabag - over 2.5 @1.65, it shouldn't be very difficult for Qarabag. Going with over 2.5 in Spartans - Maccabi Haifa and Olimpija - Ventspils games with similar odds. Ludogorets and Ferencvaros parlay @2.45 looks like good option, but it shouldn't be easy for Ferencvaros, playing conditions usually is very difficult in Faroe Islands.

You should check out the conference league teams in the first round if you haven't already. I swear some of these names sound so random, almost made up: Egnatia, Niedercorn, Penybont, Cosmos...

Yeah, some of these names looks like AI generated or unlicensed teams from PES

[morvillz7z]

The odds on Zrinjski and Breidablik have dropped considerably in the last few days, i'm hesitant to take them on the ML, hence BTTS in both matches.

Ludogorets and Ferencvaros parlay @2.45 looks like good option, but it shouldn't be easy for Ferencvaros, playing conditions usually is very difficult in Faroe Islands.

That's exactly how i see it...

I'm tempted to smash the O2.5/BTTS on Klaksvik/Ferencvaros though. Should be an open match with lots of chances. The crowd (as in bets are coming their way) is really loving the home team. Klaksvik did well last year, won all their home matches in the tournaments, some impressive wins like the one against Bodo/Glimt...they won't go without a fight, especially at home.

edit;

some annoying results to kick off this year's qualifiers, Slovan and Hacken better win otherwise i'm in deep shit. 

[Fuso.hp]

Haaland - De Bruyne duo are doing a wonderful job lately. Their performance against Arsenal in the Premier League was so impressive. They had better keep up this level of communication with each other at a high level for the Champions League also. Because there isn't much time to go until the first leg against Real Madrid in Santiago Bernabeu. This cooperation can help them a lot about capturing an advantage away already.

Last season they experienced a really big disappointment in the same stadium with an unbelievable comeback by Real Madrid in the final moments. I must admit that Manchester City were strong back then without Haaland also. But I still see a significant difference between that version and this one now. It is like there is no defense line that can stop Haaland from doing what he always do. Real Madrid should work hard to find a formula to decrease his effectiveness against themselves.

What do you think will happen in the first leg? I think that Manchester City will manage to get a draw at worst.

The Haaland-De Bruyne duo was fantastic for Manchester City last season, passing the ball beautifully to each other and scoring goals for the team in several matches. De Bruyne saved the team from certain defeat with a superb shot from outside the D box late in the match against Real Madrid. If De Bruyne didn't score for Manchester City at the end, the second leg match would have been very stressful for Manchester City as they must have won the second leg match by a few goals. It is normal for that team to perform poorly on the field. The contribution of these two people behind Manchester City's Champions League title win is very high. Apart from these two, every player in the team has played a great role in bringing the team to such a position.

[LTU_btc]

Well, my fears about playing in Faroe Islands wasn't without a reason as it was dull game and Ferencvaros was far from winning it. Anyway, other part of my parlay also wasn't successful as Balkani made upset by beating Ferencvaros 2:0. Zalgiris disappointed me too as they didn't showed anything against Struga. At least Qarabag saved my bet on last minutes.
Not that much options to bet today. I'm going with HJK and Slovan parlay with bet boost and over 2.5 @1.62 in Farul - Sheriff game.

[slaman29]

Well, my fears about playing in Faroe Islands wasn't without a reason as it was dull game and Ferencvaros was far from winning it. Anyway, other part of my parlay also wasn't successful as Balkani made upset by beating Ferencvaros 2:0. Zalgiris disappointed me too as they didn't showed anything against Struga. At least Qarabag saved my bet on last minutes.
Not that much options to bet today. I'm going with HJK and Slovan parlay with bet boost and over 2.5 @1.62 in Farul - Sheriff game.

Man I need to pay attention next time and start betting on these weird teams I think anyone who did so would be in big profit so far. Qarabag is a very familiar name somehow, you think they can make the group stages this time?

Multibets are dangerous here, only ML bets from now on I feel is the way to proceed in these qualifiers.

[beerlover]

Well, my fears about playing in Faroe Islands wasn't without a reason as it was dull game and Ferencvaros was far from winning it. Anyway, other part of my parlay also wasn't successful as Balkani made upset by beating Ferencvaros 2:0. Zalgiris disappointed me too as they didn't showed anything against Struga. At least Qarabag saved my bet on last minutes.
Not that much options to bet today. I'm going with HJK and Slovan parlay with bet boost and over 2.5 @1.62 in Farul - Sheriff game.

Man I need to pay attention next time and start betting on these weird teams I think anyone who did so would be in big profit so far. Qarabag is a very familiar name somehow, you think they can make the group stages this time?

Multibets are dangerous here, only ML bets from now on I feel is the way to proceed in these qualifiers.

I agree that betting on these teams I have never heard about could be a good profit, but more often than not the results are not as good as I expected them to be and that results with not having a good profit. This is why I avoided it a bit more, but I am going to end up starting to bet on some of them later on, going to wait about one more stage before I start, because at that point we are going to end up seeing teams that are champions but from lower level leagues instead, and that will be a good one.

Let's see how good it gets but these teams who we never heard of before, or even if we did, no idea how they are right now, makes no sense to bet on at the moment and could result with nothing good on the long run if we do bet on them.

[casperBGD]

~snip
Qarabag is a very familiar name somehow, you think they can make the group stages this time?

I don't think they stand any chance to reach group stage, but maybe they will prove me wrong
interesting round so far, Fradi didn't won, but Ludogorets is more of a surprise to me, and odds were much better to bet on them, so no harm feelings due to lost bet

Slovan also didn't win at home yesterday, was a sure thing to me, but failed, not sure if they will make it up in second match in Luxembourg, odds should be much better

[slaman29]

I saw that the qualifier with Israeli team was halted due to ongoing violence from both sides in Israel Palestine war. I always thought that was neverending but thanks to football news I realized it was actually going up in rate and seriousness for a few weeks now.

Back home the news isn't covered at all because of sensitivities.

I know Ukraine Russia problem made Russia the outcast, I wonder why Israel doesn't have same sanctions? Curious, not interested in politics, just trying to get a better picture.

[morvillz7z]

I went 0/4 last week with decent reads on Breidablik and Zrinjski but poor bet selections, +0.5 AH was the way to go and i had btts. Slovan wrecked two more of my bets thanks to Kucka's red for appearing to bite an opponent. Lol

I tried to watch at least a portion of each match live or find extended highlights, here are my short observations:

Struga/Zalgiris

Zalgiris was the better team, but they blew several chances to get a comfy lead before the second leg. The early hour of the contest, combined with the likelihood that temps will be 30C+, leads me to believe that it will not be a fast-paced match, the U2.5 looks good. Struga will play defensively, as they did in the first leg, and try their luck on counters.

Flora/Rakow

The Polish champions impressed me the most, they have put together a solid team that's also very attacking. Like the O2.5 and Rakow to win again.

Maccabi Haifa/Hamrun

Maccabi are already in the next round unless UEFA hands them a ban. Maccabi's fans got into a fight with local fans, match had to be stopped, and there were flares shot into the pitch, yeah it wasn't pretty. Hamrun poor defensively, Maccabi should be able to put 2-3 goals again.

Sheriff/Farul

Sheriff is not the same team from last year, lots of changes there and very little time to get the new players in sync. I fancy Farul to qualify for the next round.

[LTU_btc]

Struga/Zalgiris

Zalgiris was the better team, but they blew several chances to get a comfy lead before the second leg. The early hour of the contest, combined with the likelihood that temps will be 30C+, leads me to believe that it will not be a fast-paced match, the U2.5 looks good. Struga will play defensively, as they did in the first leg, and try their luck on counters.

I have similar thoughts on this game, difficult to expect good quality football in such conditions. And both teams looked really poor on attack in previous game. Under 2.5 odds looks too low, so, I go with Zalgiris to qualify @1.75.
I doubt that UEFA will ban Maccabi for their fans behavious. Most likely they will have to pay some money as penalty. I go with over 2.5 goals with betboost on Sportsbet.
Flora - Rakow, I'm not confident that it will be high scoring game after looking at 1st. I just go with Rakow ML
More or less random bets of Hacken and Zrjinski ML's - I didn't saw these teams playing, so I go blindly with odds.
BATE - Partizani looks very interesting and difficult to predict. Doubt that we will see many goals there, so under 2.5 is my pick. And small money on Partizani ML because Belarusian clubs is famous for screeing up in Europe in recent years and they rarely go through 1st round.

[Slow death]

sheriff had a very comfortable victory in today's game, they managed to score 3 goals and did not concede a goal, they did not make the same mistakes as in the first leg in which they lost and could not score a goal, in this game they won very easily and continue on up front, what surprises me now is the fact that Farul didn't manage to score any goals and they had a very bad performance, I should have bet on the sheriff that they would pass to another phase but I ended up forgetting to do that

zalgris was very lucky and won the game, flora had a humiliating defeat, conceded 3 goals, both in the first leg and as in the second leg flora could not score at least 1 goal, maccabi won the game as expected, hacken also won his game as expected. the other games are still being played and tomorrow we will have more games, but I won't bet on tomorrow's games, if I were to try to guess some results, I would say that dynamo Tbilisi and qarabag will pass to another stage in my opinion

[LTU_btc]

From yesterday's games I'm only surprised about BATE win against Partizani. They managed to score 2 goals just with few shots made, while Partizani attacked much more and ended without goals. Zalgiris win was very difficult, Struga took a lead with just 14 minutes remaining.
My main bet today is already live - Olimpija ML against Valmiera, I see good value here. I'm actually surprised how Valmiera become Latvian champions when they have teams like Riga or RFS with much bigger budgets and better squads. I see Olimpija as heavy favorites here.
Then parlay of Ludogorets ML and Qarabag - Lincoln Red Imps over 2.5 goals @1.93. I'm not sure about Ludogorets making comeback from 0:2, but I expect them to win today.
Ferencvaros - Klaksvik - despite that first game ended 0:0, I expect that this match will look completely different and Ferencvaros will take confident win - over 2.5 @1.57.
And very attractive odds for Slovan - 1.91. First game ended 1:1, but I think that they should win against small team from Luxembourg even playing away.

[darxiaomi]

I comment on BSFL thread, but here we go again, what happen to Ferencvaros, i always support them in this stages, and always they reach some last stages, you cant lose so badly against a Island Faroe team.

I think Cherchesov its gonna make his tavel bags. A big lose on money fo Ferencvaros, but well they fell into UEL pre stages i think.

[LTU_btc]

It was quite profitable day for me, only Ferencvaros ruined things a bit for me. After deafeat in 1st leg 2:0, Ludogorets managed to make comeback and scored 4 goals without response.
Here is pairs of 2nd qualifying round, some big clubs like Galatasaray, Dinamo Zagreb or Genk joining qualifiers now;

I comment on BSFL thread, but here we go again, what happen to Ferencvaros, i always support them in this stages, and always they reach some last stages, you cant lose so badly against a Island Faroe team.

I think Cherchesov its gonna make his tavel bags. A big lose on money fo Ferencvaros, but well they fell into UEL pre stages i think.

It's crazy, one of biggest upsets in few recent seasons. Didn't watched whole game, turned it only after 2nd goal. And from what I saw, Ferencvaros looked like amateur team, not Klaksvik. 3rd goal summarize their performance very well:
https://twitter.com/FootballReprt/status/1681709145513132037
Cherchesov already sacked, it would be difficult to imagine different scenario

[slaman29]

Even I have to follow on the poor comments on Ferencvaros, you have no excuse to lose in the first place but to lose like that, without a reply, so a team thats not having any business to win is a poor showing.

They also truly saved me on BSFL so for that I'm not at all gonna complain

What you guys think of Dnipro?

[morvillz7z]

I've decided to limit my pre-match bets (and parlays) to live bets and singles only. With the shit that went down in the first qualifying round, and the lack of information about certain teams and their suspect early-season form, it's all guessing, pissing money in the wind. Lol

That being said, i'll be going after UNDERS today! Even though better teams with more quality/finishing up front enter the second qualifying round i believe the trend of low-scoring first-leg matches will continue. We only got 4/15 OVERS (O2.5) in the first leg, compared to 11/15 OVERS in the second. I hope to cash out on some of these...

Which team will be the Ferencvaros of the second round, disappoint in the first leg and shit the pants in the second? Galatasaray, Dinamo Zagreb? Something's got to give...

[LTU_btc]

I'm taking Molde ML @1.72. Also, over 2.5 in Servette - Genk game. There is no favorite in this game, but I expect to see some goals there. What else, odds for Copenhagen looks attractive, but I skip this game, it looks a bit tricky for me.

Which team will be the Ferencvaros of the second round, disappoint in the first leg and shit the pants in the second? Galatasaray, Dinamo Zagreb? Something's got to give...

I'm a bit surprised to see what odds are given for Galatasaray win - 1.55. I expected that it will be much lower as they are huge favorites. Though, they have some missing players like Icardi, they newest signing Zaha also not included in their squad list. I would like to see different scenario, but I expect to see Galatasaray win.

[Lordhermes]

I'm taking Molde ML @1.72. Also, over 2.5 in Servette - Genk game. There is no favorite in this game, but I expect to see some goals there. What else, odds for Copenhagen looks attractive, but I skip this game, it looks a bit tricky for me.

Which team will be the Ferencvaros of the second round, disappoint in the first leg and shit the pants in the second? Galatasaray, Dinamo Zagreb? Something's got to give...

I'm a bit surprised to see what odds are given for Galatasaray win - 1.55. I expected that it will be much lower as they are huge favorites. Though, they have some missing players like Icardi, they newest signing Zaha also not included in their squad list. I would like to see different scenario, but I expect to see Galatasaray win.

The games are unpredictable, have tried all odds isn't working out, have lost money today. Galatasaray has just scored two goals in the die minutes to win the game. It's surprising.

[LTU_btc]

Bad day for me, lost both bets. Don't really know why I went with goals over reather than BTTS in Servette - Genk game which ended 1:1. Didn't expected that it will be so easy for Dinamo Zagreb, they're 99% in next round. Panathinaikos also made serious step, but late Dnipro-1 goal keep little hope for their comeback.

The games are unpredictable, have tried all odds isn't working out, have lost money today. Galatasaray has just scored two goals in the die minutes to win the game. It's surprising.

So, game ended 2:2 as Zalgiris euqlised score. What a show by Kazlauskas in 10 minutes - he got second yellow card for taking shirt off while celebrating goal:

Zalgiris had such great moment to score in 1st half when Oyewusi went 1 on 1 with Muslera, but he missed. It's typical Oyewusi, wasting great moments and it can cost a lot for Zalgiris. 2:2 is fair result, both teams had similar number of moments, but I'm still scpetical about Zalgiris chances as Galatasaray will have stronger squad on 2nd leg with players like Zaha or Bakambu.