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[FlamingFingers]

Are you ready to see $10,000 Bitcoin this year or early next year? I read some communities on the Internet and most of them are sure that the price of $17,600 is a very cruel fall and a fall even deeper can provoke a loss of faith in bitcoin altogether (funny phrase). But those same people have apparently never analyzed bitcoin historical data. In this capitulation event, bitcoin only fell (I don't know if it's appropriate to say this when it comes to such a loss in value ) by 73%.

If you look at the historical events of capitulation, whether it was 2013 or 2017, then Bitcoin steadily lost ~ 85% of its value, after which a renaissance began, and the market entered a recovery phase.



Based on the theory of cyclicality, then the absolute market bottom comes every 4 years, and at the same time, bitcoin loses about 85% of its value after an explosive bullrun. In this cycle, 85% of the lost value from the last ATH is right at the ~$10,000 mark.

What do you think is the absolute bottom of the current bearish cycle?

No one can actually predict the absolute bottom, just buy in bit as the price go down, a lots of people are expecting bitcoin at 10k -15k as bottom but no one actually knows where it will bottom at, I won't be surprised to see bitcoin at such price because it seems like this bear season is going to be more brutal than the previous ones, imagine all the way from $60k+ down to 19k+ presently

[dragonvslinux]

No one can actually predict the absolute bottom, just buy in bit as the price go down, a lots of people are expecting bitcoin at 10k -15k as bottom but no one actually knows where it will bottom at, I won't be surprised to see bitcoin at such price because it seems like this bear season is going to be more brutal than the previous ones, imagine all the way from $60k+ down to 19k+ presently

It is clear that no one can predict the exact bottom, unless by chance. For investments, it would be nice to decide on the range in which the investor will buy bitcoin in parts, as the price falls. For me personally, this range is between $10,000 and $24,000.

I think you're right here, smart investors will be averaging in between this range. Some will go all in around $20K, which may or may not work out in the short-term, even in the long-term it'll likely still be considered a good buying price. For example based on the graph you posted, we are at the equivalent of $6K in 2018 or $300 in 2015 based on bear market draw-down, where previously investors began accumulating again.

I personally remember returning profit into the market around $6.5K in 2018. While in the short-term price dropped in half, in the long-term, it was a good average price during that bear market. Because ultimately, no-one really knows if we will definitively go lower from here, and if we don't, there will be many that will wish they had already began accumulating at this level (in order to average in at a higher price if necessary).

Also to note, we are at the April 2013 equivalent lows. While the correction has been significantly longer than back then, arguably it has been as aggressive. I imagine many people back then would have assumed Bitcoin would of dropped to $10-$30 after such a parabolic move, but instead, for whatever reason, it made a low around $65 before continuing up to $1200.

[Sebas.tian]

I know for certain that the price will go below $10k and there won't ever be an ATH again. We've witnessed the top, and we're on the other side of it forever now.

Yes, the bitcoin price will definitely decrease to $10,000 before the end of this year 2022 for people to buy and hold for a bright future to come before they can sell to make a good profits. I believe, the price will change soon for the betterment of the Long term investors who have been waiting for the price to go higher before they can release their coins to make a good profits from the market, which bullish market is about to appear before the end of this year 2022 for people to start rejoicing from the community.

[Silberman]

No one can actually predict the absolute bottom, just buy in bit as the price go down, a lots of people are expecting bitcoin at 10k -15k as bottom but no one actually knows where it will bottom at, I won't be surprised to see bitcoin at such price because it seems like this bear season is going to be more brutal than the previous ones, imagine all the way from $60k+ down to 19k+ presently

Even if we can see the bottom, it will come in very abruptly. Only a few would be able to get their order filled at that bottom price. Most wont so don't waste your time keep looking for it, DCE around that price is what everyone should do.

Very few people get to buy at the absolute bottom of the bear market, this is something that most traders need to understand, however buying close to the bottom is indeed very possible which is why people spend a great deal of their time trying to figure out if the bottom is already in or not, however regardless of the answer that we get it is important to remember to always take advantage of any drop in the price of bitcoin which brings it below half of its ATH, since at minimum you will be able to double your investment in just a few years down the line without too much of an effort.

[fabiorem]

Bitcoin is going to $6k.

[Fundamentals Of]

I guess I'm not ready. But I didn't make myself ready. I am not looking forward to that price. That seems too low. But with all that's happening right now, I think it could happen. But there's nothing to be ready about. I know very well that it is a possibility and so when that possibility finally happens, I would be accepting it wholeheartedly. In fact, let it come and let the market shake off the doubters and weak hands and let the recovery be made up of strong-willed buyers.

[Maidak]

Based on the theory of cyclicality, then the absolute market bottom comes every 4 years, and at the same time, bitcoin loses about 85% of its value after an explosive bullrun. In this cycle, 85% of the lost value from the last ATH is right at the ~$10,000 mark.

I expect further from the existing cycle, expectation $8000, two thousand lower than expected, at least.

I had a fiasco when Bitcoin was at $6000 a few years ago, I looked and I didn't do anything about it, the new ATH kept going up to $60k, experience is the teacher of everything, well, if Bitcoin is in the $10k position, I'll hold on tight until a new ATH happens, no matter how many years it will be, i don't want to fail the umpteenth time, i'm ready for a $10k Bitcoin cycle, I'm ready to risk.

8k$ this is your expectation because you think you missed the previous $6000 position, or you are the results based on your analysis. I would love to know your thoughts.

It would be bad for bitcoin to go back to $10k for those holding it above $20k and many bought it at $50k last year, but great time for those who are holding fiat and waiting for the next bear season, it will be a great opportunity to buy if bitcoin really hits 10k.

[LogitechMouse]

I'm ready for everything .
What do I mean by that. Before Bitcoin went down near $20,000, I'm already ready for it and bought some. When Bitcoin goes even lower to maybe $15,000, I'm also ready to accumulate more Bitcoin. I'm ready as well if Bitcoin goes even lower down to $10,000. I would be happy to see it happen but chances of it to happen? Right now it's low.

I also believe in that 4-year cycle so I will not be surprised if Bitcoin will go drop near ~85% TBH. Well, it would be a disaster for other investors if Bitcoin goes lower than $17,000 again .

[dragonvslinux]

I think you're right here, smart investors will be averaging in between this range. Some will go all in around $20K, which may or may not work out in the short-term, even in the long-term it'll likely still be considered a good buying price. For example based on the graph you posted, we are at the equivalent of $6K in 2018 or $300 in 2015 based on bear market draw-down, where previously investors began accumulating again.

I personally remember returning profit into the market around $6.5K in 2018. While in the short-term price dropped in half, in the long-term, it was a good average price during that bear market. Because ultimately, no-one really knows if we will definitively go lower from here, and if we don't, there will be many that will wish they had already began accumulating at this level (in order to average in at a higher price if necessary).

Also to note, we are at the April 2013 equivalent lows. While the correction has been significantly longer than back then, arguably it has been as aggressive. I imagine many people back then would have assumed Bitcoin would of dropped to $10-$30 after such a parabolic move, but instead, for whatever reason, it made a low around $65 before continuing up to $1200.

Therefore, it is most reasonable to buy in parts, by the ladder method. Lowering the cost of your bitcoins, if suddenly the market drops even lower after your purchases. As a result, if, for example, you buy a portion at 20,000, a portion at 18,000, a portion at 16,000, a portion at 14,000, a portion at 12,000, and a portion at 10,000, then when calculating the average price, it turns out that you bought bitcoins at 15,000. Not the lowest value, but close to the bottom and most importantly, getting such an entry price is much more realistic than trying to buy everything at once with one lot at the maximum bottom.

While I agree that DCA in a dip is one of the best strategies, it's worth remembering it only works in long-term up trends, as is the case with all DCA in all assets. Below $8.3K for example, the average price of Bitcoin since 2010, this becomes debatable if Bitcoin is still in a long-term uptrend, as DCA effectively fails in the short-term. This is why there will be others who will wait for a confirmation of a low, or least a high probability that a low has been reached, as if worse case scenario Bitcoin goes much lower than most people expect is possible, they will be in a position to BTC at much lower prices, at a much later date.

Hence, the only issue with averaging between $10K and $20K, is assuming $10K will be the low. As if it's not, a $15K average won't seem like a great price if a longer-term bear market begins. I'm not even suggesting this is a likelihood right now, but only outlining that it remains a possibility (as it has always been for a decade now), but more so that there will be investors who will remain on the sidelines because they'd much prefer to buy Bitcoin 20% up from the lows, even 50% or 100%, if there is a much better confirmation of a trend reversal - knowing that they could still end up buying below $15K (even if unlikely).

In reality, a multi-decade averaging plan should include buying Bitcoin from $20K to $1, as opposed to limiting the lowest buying price to a level that seems likely for a low.

[P2PECS]

I doubt that it will reach those levels, what happens is that in the bear market in which we find ourselves and the way the economy is, it is not out of the question, just as it is not surprising to see predictions like that.

I believe the $20k environment is strong support and many of the leveraged have already been liquidated. So I don't rule out the price going down to $15k for example, but I think we would be back to the $20k area soon. When we will go up and get back to $30k for example, I am not sure, but with positive news it could be in a short time.

[Wilhelm]

I am ready to see Bitcoin at $10,000. and i am managing fund for buy bitcoin on that time . i am not sure btc really can drop to 10k but it has possibility. i mean bitcoin will drop bellow $17,000 soon.

I don't think it's going to go to that level but nobody knows. You are trying to time the bottom which is close to impossible.

Be careful you don't end up empty handed waiting for the $10k that might never come...

My tip would be to buy every a little bit every X days to DCA the dip.

[romero121]

I am ready to see Bitcoin at $10,000. and i am managing fund for buy bitcoin on that time . i am not sure btc really can drop to 10k but it has possibility. i mean bitcoin will drop bellow $17,000 soon.

I don't think it's going to go to that level but nobody knows. You are trying to time the bottom which is close to impossible.

Be careful you don't end up empty handed waiting for the $10k that might never come...

My tip would be to buy every a little bit every X days to DCA the dip.

Majority of the experts do suggest DCA, because we don't know the bottom. Even if the market falls no one can come to conclusion on the bottom price. So DCAing will let the users own the bitcoin at an average price.

When we talk of $10k, it is quite low to think about. But, there is possible chances as the market is predicted to be bearish for a long. In between there is rise in the price and the same helps traders strengthen their cryptocurrency portfolio.

[dragonvslinux]

While I agree that DCA in a dip is one of the best strategies, it's worth remembering it only works in long-term up trends, as is the case with all DCA in all assets. Below $8.3K for example, the average price of Bitcoin since 2010, this becomes debatable if Bitcoin is still in a long-term uptrend, as DCA effectively fails in the short-term. This is why there will be others who will wait for a confirmation of a low, or least a high probability that a low has been reached, as if worse case scenario Bitcoin goes much lower than most people expect is possible, they will be in a position to BTC at much lower prices, at a much later date.

Hence, the only issue with averaging between $10K and $20K, is assuming $10K will be the low. As if it's not, a $15K average won't seem like a great price if a longer-term bear market begins. I'm not even suggesting this is a likelihood right now, but only outlining that it remains a possibility (as it has always been for a decade now), but more so that there will be investors who will remain on the sidelines because they'd much prefer to buy Bitcoin 20% up from the lows, even 50% or 100%, if there is a much better confirmation of a trend reversal - knowing that they could still end up buying below $15K (even if unlikely).

In reality, a multi-decade averaging plan should include buying Bitcoin from $20K to $1, as opposed to limiting the lowest buying price to a level that seems likely for a low.

Of course, all this is not designed for a speculative strategy for making quick profits, but for a measured HODL that will last for more than one year. In practice, this is a less risky way to invest than trying to bottom or squeeze to try to buy quickly at the very bottom. As far as a $20,000 to $1 purchase plan is concerned, you should have ongoing collateral for this unlikely scenario. But what's the point of holding free money to buy back bitcoins at prices that, with a 99.99% probability, will not happen? Bitcoin has a historical bullish chart that has not broken yet, it makes sense to expand the buying range if the historical chart breaks.

I agree it's not about timing the bottom when investing, quite the opposite. I'm just pointing how attempting to buy into confirmation of a bottom, or DCA into a dip, can both be failed strategies in the long-term. Namely if a decade long uptrend is in fact broken. Call me a pessimistic, but I'm just trying to be a realistic here. No strategy that's based on speculation (DCA included) is entirely reliable, nor the best for that matter.

For example the issue with expanding the buying range that I can see is if Bitcoin breaks it's historically bullish chart, say sub $10K, then this is a case of hindsight. If you've already laddered into the dip between $10K and $20K (based on speculating that this will be the lows) with the majority of available cash flow for example, then it's obviously not possible to retrospectively ladder in further buys at much lower prices.

For example I'll estimate there's a 90% chance $10K isn't significantly broken and 99% that $1K isn't significantly broken. But at the same time, even with a theoretical 10% chance that such a considerable low won't be broken, ie 1 in every 10 times, then it's much more likely it'd be broken if there is a global recession or form of depression that we haven't seen in over a decade. That could be one of those times in 10 years such a low would occur. Likewise, if it's the worst recession in over a century, then I can definitely see how $1K would be broken. At this point, many would finally accept how DCA is speculative.

My point is, trying to buy the bottom, trying to buy confirmation or a bottom, and DCA between particular price points (not the entire range) are all forms of speculation at the end of the day. Some come with more risk, others come with different risk, DCA is arguably one of the lowest risks (as you're buying time not price) - but even speculating on time is speculation none the less.

[Silberman]

I'm ready for everything .
What do I mean by that. Before Bitcoin went down near $20,000, I'm already ready for it and bought some. When Bitcoin goes even lower to maybe $15,000, I'm also ready to accumulate more Bitcoin. I'm ready as well if Bitcoin goes even lower down to $10,000. I would be happy to see it happen but chances of it to happen? Right now it's low.

I also believe in that 4-year cycle so I will not be surprised if Bitcoin will go drop near ~85% TBH. Well, it would be a disaster for other investors if Bitcoin goes lower than $17,000 again .

This is the right attitude to have, after all we do not control how the price of bitcoin moves so the only thing we can do is to adapt to the circumstances, those which think that we may never see that price again could be correct or not, however what are they going to do if they are mistaken about their prediction? Many will not know what to do at that point as it was not part of their plan and this will make them more susceptible to make mistakes.

[16xypjnxlrew]

Now, that's wishful thinking! But the reality is that the price will be back there in a couple of months or so. It always comes back. That's the best part. 

For the price to return, you need to wait until the bitcoin halving occurs, and this is another 2 years

[fullhdpixel]

I'm ready for everything .
What do I mean by that. Before Bitcoin went down near $20,000, I'm already ready for it and bought some. When Bitcoin goes even lower to maybe $15,000, I'm also ready to accumulate more Bitcoin. I'm ready as well if Bitcoin goes even lower down to $10,000. I would be happy to see it happen but chances of it to happen? Right now it's low.

I also believe in that 4-year cycle so I will not be surprised if Bitcoin will go drop near ~85% TBH. Well, it would be a disaster for other investors if Bitcoin goes lower than $17,000 again .

This is the right attitude to have, after all we do not control how the price of bitcoin moves so the only thing we can do is to adapt to the circumstances, those which think that we may never see that price again could be correct or not, however what are they going to do if they are mistaken about their prediction? Many will not know what to do at that point as it was not part of their plan and this will make them more susceptible to make mistakes.

We sort of "control" the price of bitcoin, not that we do individually, it is not like you or me control it. But people like us, we all control it together as a whole. When there is a news about a 500 million dollar bitcoin purchase, that itself could make it go up maybe 1k itself, probably not even as much.

But, the "news" of it causes a huge ton of people to make moves, plus all the ready ones already there like stop loss, or purchases ,buy orders and so forth, all of that causes it to go up. Hell even the leverages getting liquidated causes it to go down faster, when in fact it wouldn't be going down if they weren't there. So we do control it a bit, not directly like that, but indirectly as a whole.

[348Judah]

Are you ready to see $10,000 Bitcoin this year or early next year?

Am not to ne frank amd I don't think bitcoin may go dip to that extent, mind my words am not saying it can't but may not, it is believed that everyone will fome up with his own conclusions about bitcoin due tonthe current situation at hand which doesn't not make any difference in making bitcoin to or not to be, my own personal conviction about bitcoin is the value and relevance it jas create habe gone beyond any form of doubt about it.

[STT]

As I remember we were stuck on 10k for so long.  It was a large 5 figure number in peoples brains so had gravity (sentiment) and we orbited it both above and below for seemingly forever.      People consider every price to be equal but I think a rush down to 10k is about as reliable as soggy cardboard for it withstanding any scrutiny by the market.   It can happen but I only really expect it in panic terms when people are running lamp posts they so distracted and forced in actions.
   If we had interest rates way above 5% then I'd believe in it being more of a real move, as I recall last time FED tried to herd the cattle with higher rates it was a false run.  Ultimately raising rates, raises cost of debt and there is trillions owed on really short dates so immediately its throttling the economy which they are also preoccupied with not stalling into a recession or depression which still haunts them from the 1930's  
   Long story short, the FED is always falling towards inflation occurring and they have sworn to allow 2% as perfectly acceptable if thats the case we arent seeing any real hard times for global assets such as BTC.   Deflation is a big fear of central banks, eventually yes we get failure occuring but they are deliberately diluting money for decades now.  Yen and Bank of Japan have been on this yellow brick road since 1990

[btc78]

answering the question ? yeah I am ready mate because I have already kept my Bitcoin on Hold since early february so what I wanted now is to buy more while the value keeps in falling.
and yes 10k? that will be my final wait and if the value goes that low then i will surely buy another set of Bitcoin to keep holding and remain in my folio for the next 3-4 years.

[stomachgrowls]

answering the question ? yeah I am ready mate because I have already kept my Bitcoin on Hold since early february so what I wanted now is to buy more while the value keeps in falling.
and yes 10k? that will be my final wait and if the value goes that low then i will surely buy another set of Bitcoin to keep holding and remain in my folio for the next 3-4 years.

DCA is the key when you do able to buy on higher price but the value do keeps falling then it wont really make you panic since you do have plans on accumulating or trying out to catch on the bottom as low as you could but of course not every speculation would turn out to be true or precise and lots had been saying lately about 10k price.If we do base up on history and technicals then it could really be seen but of course not all cals would  really be happening but we shouldnt really remove the possibilities that it could really happen thats why its always been ideal on have some reserves
on which whenever bitcoins price tends to fall then we do always have the chances and capability on accumulating cheap.So always assume and anticipate possible drops and crashes
but of course you should make yourself prepared too.