The unpredicted rise of BTC in 2022-2023 despite predicted bear market

[Etranger]

Nowadays there is a popular discussion about bear market, which started after BTC price declined in the end of 2021 and continued doing so in the 2022 till now (mid 2022). The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4  year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?

I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).

If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)
But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy

Let's discuss

[Oshosondy]

Bitcoin may grow in 2023/2024, but bitcoin halving is 2024 and bitcoin grows after halving, the growth is expected in 2024/2025, but that does not means 2023 will not be the for bull and bear market.

Metaverse do not control bitcoin price.

If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)

This is not correct, read the bold part of this post.

[Baofeng]

Usually the end of the bear market is somewhat after the bitcoin block halving. So it will happen if I'm not mistaken on block 840,000. So that will be around April-May 2024, most likely give or take some months, then we will see some recovery. So bull cycle might start around that timeframe 2024 and not 2025.

Not sure what you mean by this.

But this 4-year cycle theory may not consider the rise of a) interest in digital assets, b) possible metavesre market spread, c) the rise of productive capacity due to digitilized world and so - the interest in digital sector of economy

Still rise base on the basic tenant of supply and demand.

[Etranger]

Due to that logic the price of BTC depends percicely on what is happening only with BTC itself (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes).

But I'm also curious if we should take into account that other markets (stock market, global political enviroment) influence the crypto-currency market

For example, when the situation in Kazahstan on New Year's Eve took place (country, where price of electricity is extremely low, so miners moved to that country from China), the price of BTC changed too (it fell significantly).

So my question is - should we calculate the influence of such events as signigicant and which also shapes the price of BTC, or we should only calculate the inner logic of BTC (trading, halfing, mining, alghorithm changes)?

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

You don't have to force yourself to predict price of Bitcoin in around any halving and in any bull market after a halving.

If you look at past halvings, you see what? Growth, solid growth.

If you want to predict only one thing, let's skip price prediction but predict the survival of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. If they are all here to stay, price will grow in a way it should be. If you predict a positive future for it, you must ignore all rises and falls in short term and even in a few years. Let's imagine what your investment looks like after next 12 or 16 years.

[mk4]

The beauty of dollar-cost averaging in an asset that you're long-term bullish on is that you don't even need to make guesses on how the markets will move in the short-mid term future. You just slowly but surely but in, and if you're right about your long-term thesis, chances are that you're going to make good amounts of money.

[Doan9269]

The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions

There's high tendencies that before 2024 or exactly after the next halving of the said year there is more likely possibility for a rise in bitcoin price, but as for this present time till next year 2023 i have doubt in the rising within this season, there may be only slight move that may not be an observable one, maybe around $20k to $40k at max between now and next year, but this does not create any reason to fear about bitcoin because it's value as currency remains intact, it's just a rise and fall in price speculation.

[edgycorner]

When it comes to crypto, the technological advancement within the sphere has no major effect on the price. Unless it's some breakthrough stuff, which can be used in other fields as well thus encouraging its adoption. But I don't believe we will witness any such advancement from a place with guys like DoKwon,Justin Sun,Su Zhu lol

It will continue to fall with the US economy. Thanks to all the money printing and free money that was distributed last year, the market is inflated now. This isn't the bottom yet. Expect another 30~40% dropoff in this year and the effect will resonate till the end of 2023. Bullish after Q3 2023
This is my prediction 

[lovesmayfamilis]

The OP is right about what is happening now in the world. It can be said that it has never happened, or not in such numbers. Wars, gas and electricity prices, and a crisis in the economy show that we cannot predict the future with certainty. Therefore, the behavior of bitcoin, despite its past predictable growth after the halving, can also throw out a new trick.

And of course, many people here want quick changes in Bitcoin prices in a positive direction, but all we can do is just guess and feel like analysts, whose forecasts will certainly come true, but no one knows the exact time.

[inthelongrun]

Most of us are really hopeful that bull run happens earlier than this 4-year cycle. Last year I planned on selling my bitcoin savings before the start of 2022 and will just buy back in late 2023. But I haven't. I convinced myself that things might be different this time. We have El Salvador and maybe some more countries this year or in few years. Adoption is bigger than before. We also have web3 and NFTs which also started in the gaming industry.

The current war in Ukraine and world crisis damage a lot of nations economies which lead to diminishing currency values and plummeting its stock markets. All of these make bitcoin becoming more viable and acceptable as a currency and as an investment.     

[sbrys]

It would make sense that the halving becomes less and less important as the impact of mining on the total supply becomes less and less material.

So yes next cycle could be sooner

[swogerino]

I think the 4 yearly circle in halving has an impact in predicting the next bull run because it has shown that quite a few times this has happened.The first halving happened in 2012 and one year later the first all time high in November 2013,then halving happened in mid 2016 and the next all time high happened in December 2017 meaning 1.5 years after,the next one happened in 2020 and we got a new all time high in October 2021.So far this is being the trend and based on this it looks like in 2024 will be the next halving with 2025 the next big all time high,hopefully it will come sooner and even in 2022-2023 where no one expects it.

[NeuroticFish]

The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4  year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?

The term depends very much from user to user... is it growth, or is it recovery?
From my calculations/feeling at least in Q4 2022 the price should start recovering. But the value to be touched is hard to predict. If it'll be 40-45k I'd be already happy. If it'll recover quicker I'll be even happier.
However, this is mere speculation.

[pooya87]

The problem is the economy of half of the world that is crashing hard these days, so in order to speculate about the bitcoin price we have to first speculate about the time that crash ends. I personally don't think it's possible to predict that because the inflation is still rising in both US and EU, and there is no sign of slowing down. In fact there are signs that things could get worse.

This soaring price of everything has effectively increased the amount of panic in all markets, consequently a lot of newbies are selling their bitcoins; some are selling to cover their bills and some to fill their bellies.
On the other hand the other half are on the sidelines greedily waiting for the best price (which is the lowest price possible) to start buying bitcoin which is why the reversal has not happened yet. These people will continue waiting as long as the economy of the other half continues crashing.

Of course some "catalysts" could change this trend by providing an incentive for those on the sidelines to jump in sooner. Catalysts such as the halving.

[sbrys]

We are also facing the first material stock market correction since the launce of Bitcoin. That's also a new parameter.

[Poker Player]

What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4  year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?

Without being impossible, I see it as quite unlikely, as long as you are referring to beating the $69k ath and going further. I think we'll go up we'll go up but we'll stay in the $20k-$50k range or so most of the time. They better couldn't paint things last year, when some predicted that by now we would be close to $0.5M, and look where we are now. So, little bit of growth from these levels, yes, sure. Bull market and beating ath? Don't think so.

[ImThour]

For real, there are no signs of Bitcoin making any new All-time highs before 2024 Halving.
I would make a strategy for DCA for the next 12 months and then HODL it until 2025 Peak.
Max Bitcoin will do in 2023 is a mild recovery from maybe $10k to $22k? That's almost 120% gains.

[BitcoinPanther]

Nowadays there is a popular discussion about bear market, which started after BTC price declined in the end of 2021 and continued doing so in the 2022 till now (mid 2022). The question is simple: What do you think about the possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 despite bear market predictions (some say it will take 4  year cycle, till 2024), and what would be the price of the growth?

The possibility that BTC will grow in 2022-2023 is possible because of the halving hype.  As we experience in the previous cycle, the Bitcoin price slowly recovers as the halving year comes.  So if the cycle tends to repeat again, it is possible that by the end of 2023, the Bitcoin price has slightly recovered from its crashing market.  The am not sure about the price growth because it tends to be different from the previous one.

I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).

Metaverse had been around for years now, and the hype had been long gone so I don't think metaverse as the reason of the possible growth of Bitcoin in the year 2022-2023 besides, it has nothing to do about Bitcoin.

If we are going to admit the 4-cycle theory as a basis for analysis, then bear market is on its rise and will last 3 and a half year (till 2025)

I followed Bob Loukas 4 year cycle and according to him, the transition will likely happen in 2022-2023.  So bear market until 2025 does not fit the description of his 4-year cycle.

2022 is expected to be a big year for the cycle theorist, as Bitcoin is set to conclude its current four-year interval. Loukas expects a late-2022 cycle low for the digital asset, paving the way for the next cycle.

[franky1]

I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).

be aware of this
metaverse, is currently preferring NFT/tokens pegged to ethereum.. but ethereum is about to go through its own value crisis soon that will impact its underlying value and thus its speculative price above it. in a crash

changing from PoW (expensive to mine) to PoS(cheap to mine by atleast 2000x(their number of the 'energy reduction of 99.95%')) will cause alot of ethereum blockcreators to suddenly get cheap ether, because they are paying 2000x less electric.. whereby they will sell that ether cheaply and everyone will get in on it.
this can cause an oncoming storm for those that invested a good amount of fiat in ether to then buy the nft/tokens suddenly see their overall value decline.

what may transpire is then more wanting to have their altnets tagged/pegged/bridged/edged(choose your buzzword) to a better PoW chain.. aka bitcoin



rough lazy pen on paper math
current estimates of ether underlying value wil go from $xk, and down to..
404,952 validators(at time of posting) with a CPU power of 100w
5332 blocks a day
=~75 days for each validator to have approximately mined a block of 2 eth
=180kwh in 75 days for 2 eth. which on a bottomline electric cost bases of $0.04/kwh is about $7.20/2eth
or $3.60 per eth bottomline value cost so some lucky blockcreators

[coolcoinz]

I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).

You see, the problem in this assumption is that bitcoin cannot rise without the stock market. There used to be no correlation between the two, but at some point big wall street players who made money on the rising indexes begun to invest more in risky assets. Before, bitcoin used to pump on its own, like in 2011 and 2013. There was no wall street in the space, no leveraged exchanges, no loan platforms and no stable coins, but there were bull and bear markets for bitcoin. They are still here just that they are started and ended by stocks because hedge funds have more money than normal bitcoin investors and can tip the scales if they want to and all the small players see that as an omen and follow.

This is retarded if you ask me but it's how the market works. One or two big players overleverage and get in trouble due to some real world problems, like they get sued for something unrelated to bitcoin, or their company is battling a takeover and they sell a few thousand bitcoins. Suddenly all those who were leveraged get liquidated and seeing the big drop all those who were saving up to finally get 1 bitcoin also sell at a loss because something big hast to be happening with bitcoin for all those people to sell.
Bear markets rarely have anything to do with bitcoin itself, but usually a lot with how confident or how scared investors are. Probably the only time it wasn't so was when Gox admitted they had no money because they got hacked and were lying to customers for months trying to raise money.