Today is the story of my investment in Bitcoin

[LDL]

I decided yesterday morning that I would buy 1 bitcoin from this dip market. But I did not have enough money.  With which I can buy 1 bitcoin. I had an Fixt Deposit of $ 6,000 in the central bank. And the bank would paying interest at the rate of 5.5% APR. I broke it down yesterday and decided to buy Bitcoin with that money. But with this money I will not be able to buy 1 bitcoin.  On the other hand, my dream and desire is to buy 1 bitcoin. I then decided to take a loan and applied to the bank for a loan.

As much as possible if you have not taken loan from the bank of your country then I request you not to take high interest loan in this bad condition.  Especially in the next years i.e. 2023 it is not possible to say how the Bitcoin market will be.  Moreover, if you have taken a high interest loan from the bank and invested it in Bitcoin, you have no choice but to wait for the next Bitcoin market upturn.  Moreover, if the market does not rise before your bank pays back the loan with interest, there is a high chance of bankruptcy for you.

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[JayJuanGee]

I personally don't have any problem with a loan and to take chances that front-loading the investment might pay off better than buying incrementally.  Each of us is free to exercise those kinds of potentially reasonable gambles - even with long term investment money.

Everyone has no problem with borrowing, it's free to do for certain interests, especially the use of the money taken is placed in investing in bitcoin.

Yes.. some people do have a problem with the idea of borrowing money in order to invest in bitcoin.  That's why I responded to you in that post in the way that I did - and as an attempt to clarify how loans could be used in such a way that is not as big of a "problem" as some folks, including you MarjorieZimmermanGinger, were generally describing the practice of borrowing to buy bitcoin.

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.

Predictions like this are normal things to happen in my opinion, because the OP could have tried to calculate bitcoin's journey when it reached the previous ATH, so that in the next two years bitcoin can provide a large return on the investment it makes.

Yes.  I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake.  And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing.  Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.

The time accumulation the OP was trying to calculate seemed to follow a four year cycle, so he decided to invest and take the risk of borrowing money from a bank.

So what?  The reason that he is doing it is a so fucking what?  Do you think that a lot of us are not already familiar with the various theories why the BTC price might go up?  And, yes it might go up, but it might not.  That is part of the clarification that I was attempting to describe, so I am not sure why you are going back to the idea that the BTC price might go up.  That's already known that it might go up, and it is already known that there are cycle theories and all kinds of BTC prediction frameworks, but just because there is a prediction framework, that does NOT guarantee that the BTC price is going to follow such BTC price prediction framework.

However, the problem that will be faced in the following month is how to pay the bank's monthly fees, especially if you do not have other sources of funding, such as cash flow and/or money from other proceeds.

Now you are repeating the same thing that I just said.

Honestly, I would like to know how much the monthly fee must be paid to the bank by the OP?

Well, that's a fair statement/question.  I had made a post on estimating the best case scenario if OP only has to pay interest, and then pay the principle at the end, but there could be other ways that the pay back terms are outlined by the bank.  So far OP has not described that, as far as I can recall not seeing any such description of how the loan is meant to be paid back.  Maybe OP can clarify the terms upon which he is suppose to pay back his loan?
 

He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin..

The biggest problem arose here, there was no other source of reserve funds as he started to run out of money to cover the bank's monthly fees, so when faced with difficult conditions he would decide to sell bitcoins. Thus the investment he made did not get any profit and you could say he failed miserably in implementing this investment pattern.

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose.  Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

[Sebas.tian]

This is a nice story OP, which many investors will like to follow your step in the future when you finally make it with that two years of holding. I think, you will definitely make it to pay back your loan and still have more money to continue with your investment, because Bitcoin investment is different from other cryptocurrencies investment which the price can dump today and pump higher tomorrow for those that invested to have something passive to achieve. Bitcoin price will definitely hit higher next year, because this year is a preparation for what investors will experience from bullish market soon.

[inthelongrun]

Sorry but I don't get it. 8% interest borrowed from OP's uncle is higher than that of the bank with a 10% interest? Anyways, it's a very risky move OP. Something I will never do is borrow money for risky investment purposes. Although I am really confident that bitcoin will reach at least $100k in 2025 which is 500% of your capital. There are still no guarantees though. I hope you are not affected by the current drop. And since you already crossed the Rubicon, good luck mate, and hopefully, you will earn big with your very risky gamble.

Another thing, I am amazed at how high deposit interests and the low borrowing interest rates are in your place. 10% is very low and you can start a good business that can easily cover that kind of interest. Here in my country interest rates are usually at 24% per annum. Our time deposits here are only around 3% per annum.

[Frankolala]

OP,are you sure this move of yours will work as you have predicted, I guess you should come up with a plan B so that if in the next two years,bitcoin price didn't get to your assumption price,you can pay up your debts to avoid depression and frustration. You are lucky that you have where to borrow from,unlike down here in my country,borrowing is like putting a big burden on your head due to high interest rate.

You have the mind in taking risk with this bold step of yours to own 1BTC,this is what some people don't know that investing into a business is taking a risk because for you to be successful in life,you much take a risk in whatever you are doing. OP I wish you good luck and hope bitcoin price goes up so that you can pay back the loans.

[wmaurik]

This is a very risky investment method, but I hope you can have a backup plan. At present, you have not purchased a bitcoin asset. If the price of bitcoin has not risen to the ideal price after two years, how do you repay it?

Maybe he has already thought of the way you hope for it, so that you yourself don't have to worry about other people's plans and the risks that other people will bear in terms of investment. Because every investment does have its own level of risk, and I think that is the same as the work we do every day where the risk is always there and needs to be understood.

It worries me when all your assets are not enough to own a bitcoin. Although investing in bitcoin will not let you down, but the plan can't keep up with the changes. You can still save more money in other areas within two years A rainy day.

There is no need to worry about other people's assets because everyone has a plan that suits their own way of thinking and has considered it very carefully before making it. So your additional suggestions might be another consideration for the people you address, but basically everyone will still do something based on their own way of thinking.

[Gallar]

Taking risks is sometimes necessary in investing, because great people are also mostly always willing to take risks.
because in high risk there is also high success.
but! must be truly mature and dare to bear all the worst possibilities.
and hopefully bitcoin in 2024 halving will exceed last year's halving.
all bitcoiners definitely want to profit, no one wants to lose.

careful calculation will always bring profit.

[laurenB7742]

Taking risks is sometimes necessary in investing, because great people are also mostly always willing to take risks.
because in high risk there is also high success.
but! must be truly mature and dare to bear all the worst possibilities.
and hopefully bitcoin in 2024 halving will exceed last year's halving.
all bitcoiners definitely want to profit, no one wants to lose.

careful calculation will always bring profit.

What you said is probably the OP's thinking, we need to take risks, and step out of our comfort zone to take on bigger challenges to achieve success. If we are always afraid and dare not try anything, we will never succeed. OP's method is quite risky for many people, but I believe that when he decided to do it, he was fully calculated and prepared for himself. I have no objection to what he does, and I hope he succeeds with his plan.

[ajiz138]

Taking risks is sometimes necessary in investing, because great people are also mostly always willing to take risks.
because in high risk there is also high success.
but! must be truly mature and dare to bear all the worst possibilities.
and hopefully bitcoin in 2024 halving will exceed last year's halving.
all bitcoiners definitely want to profit, no one wants to lose.

careful calculation will always bring profit.

We must have the courage to do that and by taking risks we are ready to succeed with the actions taken along with the responsibilities, we must not be afraid of investment because from the worst there must be a process of recovery and also success so don't hesitate if you invest by choosing bitcoin basically we will see better profit over the next few years.

Well, we all as bitcoin investors want to make a profit, but we have to be able to go through a process of obstacles, don't stop in the middle of the road, we have to be prepared for any circumstances until bitcoin recovers again.

It's with that calculation that needs to be looked at, but when counting on a shitcoin, it's a mistake they made.

[BigBos]

Taking risks is sometimes necessary in investing, because great people are also mostly always willing to take risks.
because in high risk there is also high success.
but! must be truly mature and dare to bear all the worst possibilities.
and hopefully bitcoin in 2024 halving will exceed last year's halving.
all bitcoiners definitely want to profit, no one wants to lose.

careful calculation will always bring profit.

We must have the courage to do that and by taking risks we are ready to succeed with the actions taken along with the responsibilities, we must not be afraid of investment because from the worst there must be a process of recovery and also success so don't hesitate if you invest by choosing bitcoin basically we will see better profit over the next few years.

Well, we all as bitcoin investors want to make a profit, but we have to be able to go through a process of obstacles, don't stop in the middle of the road, we have to be prepared for any circumstances until bitcoin recovers again.

It's with that calculation that needs to be looked at, but when counting on a shitcoin, it's a mistake they made.

Of course, in any case, risks cannot be avoided, and of course, don't stop investing in bitcoin halfway, we all know the cycle in general, when the Bitcoin price is bearish, winter, and bullish, this cycle is common, and we can see it.

But Borrowing money in the bank at this time and investing in bitcoins is not in a hurry? considering the halving schedule will occur in 2024, OP will have to wait a year if he really wants the benefits that are worth the wait.
I think it's terrible if not to have any income from our job to pay the bank bills each month, but it looks like OP has enough income to cover his bills.

I give a thumbs up for his bravery, as a Bitcoiner and of course, I also support his actions.

[Diuyen Kim]

I think I should and would not borrow money to invest in a product that takes a long time to make a profit. I will use my extra money to invest in a planned way. Investing itself is risky. If you also borrow money to invest, your risk multiple will increase.

But if you can stick to your plan, I think I admire you and your courage.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

I personally don't have any problem with a loan and to take chances that front-loading the investment might pay off better than buying incrementally.  Each of us is free to exercise those kinds of potentially reasonable gambles - even with long term investment money.

Everyone has no problem with borrowing, it's free to do for certain interests, especially the use of the money taken is placed in investing in bitcoin.

Yes.. some people do have a problem with the idea of borrowing money in order to invest in bitcoin.  That's why I responded to you in that post in the way that I did - and as an attempt to clarify how loans could be used in such a way that is not as big of a "problem" as some folks, including you MarjorieZimmermanGinger, were generally describing the practice of borrowing to buy bitcoin.

The problem is when someone does not have a spare cost in the process of financing trips every month for the bank, and for me to avoid problems it is better not to lend money at the bank to make investments. There are many simple ways to participate in investing in bitcoin, one of which is to make purchases in stages according to your needs and not burden the capital we have.

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.

Predictions like this are normal things to happen in my opinion, because the OP could have tried to calculate bitcoin's journey when it reached the previous ATH, so that in the next two years bitcoin can provide a large return on the investment it makes.

Yes.  I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake. And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing.  Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.

If the investment he made goes according to the target set, it will look good and will provide a solution to the loan he is doing, then what if bitcoin in the next two years is still in its current state. Let's say this is the worst assumption that we are trying to predict, even though the next two years may not be the case. I mean there are preventive actions that can be taken, if at any time the target set does not go according to the expected scenario.

The time accumulation the OP was trying to calculate seemed to follow a four year cycle, so he decided to invest and take the risk of borrowing money from a bank.

So what?  The reason that he is doing it is a so fucking what?  Do you think that a lot of us are not already familiar with the various theories why the BTC price might go up?  And, yes it might go up, but it might not.  That is part of the clarification that I was attempting to describe, so I am not sure why you are going back to the idea that the BTC price might go up.  That's already known that it might go up, and it is already known that there are cycle theories and all kinds of BTC prediction frameworks, but just because there is a prediction framework, that does NOT guarantee that the BTC price is going to follow such BTC price prediction framework.

This relates to bitcoin being considered a speculative asset by most people, whatever the notion of linking the four year cycle with the many theories that try to be narrated, there can never be an accurate prediction of bitcoin's journey in the market. There are several patterns that cannot be separated from the journey of bitcoin, for example in the value of supply and demand, although other influences cannot be ignored either.

The most appropriate idea why bitcoin will rise again at a high price, because the price is speculative and the long journey that has been passed has given confidence to many people as the best investment and is an asset capable of maintaining value in the future.

Honestly, I would like to know how much the monthly fee must be paid to the bank by the OP?

Well, that's a fair statement/question.  I had made a post on estimating the best case scenario if OP only has to pay interest, and then pay the principle at the end, but there could be other ways that the pay back terms are outlined by the bank.  So far OP has not described that, as far as I can recall not seeing any such description of how the loan is meant to be paid back.  Maybe OP can clarify the terms upon which he is suppose to pay back his loan?

I didn't get any clarification from the OP regarding this question, but with you I was involved in several discussions and subconsciously I also started to study some of the posts you made, thus clarifying some meanings that I still don't understand, and that's why I'm happy discuss with you freely, without worrying if my understanding is wrong in assuming.

He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin..

The biggest problem arose here, there was no other source of reserve funds as he started to run out of money to cover the bank's monthly fees, so when faced with difficult conditions he would decide to sell bitcoins. Thus the investment he made did not get any profit and you could say he failed miserably in implementing this investment pattern.

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose.  Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

This is an important point from the discussion that has been going on, gambling is the same as investment even though the pattern of work is different, because gambling is also part of prediction and investment is not much different from that pattern. If gambling expects a win, then investment expects a profit.

I agree that bitcoin will again show resistance to recovery and bitcoin will slowly recover in the future, and the OP will most likely benefit from the investment he is running, as long as he can stay calm and not panic while waiting for a sustained recovery in the market.

[JayJuanGee]

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.

Predictions like this are normal things to happen in my opinion, because the OP could have tried to calculate bitcoin's journey when it reached the previous ATH, so that in the next two years bitcoin can provide a large return on the investment it makes.

Yes.  I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake. And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing.  Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.

If the investment he made goes according to the target set, it will look good and will provide a solution to the loan he is doing, then what if bitcoin in the next two years is still in its current state. Let's say this is the worst assumption that we are trying to predict, even though the next two years may not be the case. I mean there are preventive actions that can be taken, if at any time the target set does not go according to the expected scenario.

I am not sure if I understand or even agree with what you are proposing in respect to "preventative measures" since it is quite true that at the time that any of us goes into a loan, we should be able to create our plans in accordance with all of the information that we know at the time of entering into the loan. 

There are quite a few things that are in our control, including what kinds of assets and cashflow that we already have and our abilities to consider the possible ups and downs of our own other assets and cashflow.

We also know the exact terms of the loan what is the percentage that is paid in interest/fees, what is the period of payment and the payment amounts. 

As far as the BTC price, there seem to be ONLY three possibilities, which is that the BTC price goes UP, DOWN or sideways.  We should be able to plan for those three possibilities, and sure we might have some changes in the other factors that we had considered to have had been fixed, but our plan for the period of the loan should not really be changing very much, so in that sense, there should not be any "preventative measures" that need to be taken, unless there was already a plan to employ such "preventative measures" if certain circumstances pass.

He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin..

The biggest problem arose here, there was no other source of reserve funds as he started to run out of money to cover the bank's monthly fees, so when faced with difficult conditions he would decide to sell bitcoins. Thus the investment he made did not get any profit and you could say he failed miserably in implementing this investment pattern.

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose.  Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

This is an important point from the discussion that has been going on, gambling is the same as investment even though the pattern of work is different, because gambling is also part of prediction and investment is not much different from that pattern. If gambling expects a win, then investment expects a profit.

I would frame the differences between gambling and investment differently than you. 

From my point of view, some folks seem to convolute their definitions of gambling and/or investing in such a way that it becomes difficult to understand how they are differentiating the concepts, so in that sense sometimes it can be difficult to figure out what they mean when the are describing how gambling and investing differ from one another.

So in some sense it could reasonably be argued that gambling and investing are on a kind of spectrum in which if we go far on one end of the spectrum we are in the territory of gambling and if we go in the other direction then we are in the territory of investing, but there are some shared traits in the middle in which the definition could go either way.

So, for me, investing tends to involve having a longer timeline and also tends to involve the engaging in behaviors in which the amount of guessing is reduced.  So for example, if I say that I am going to invest $10 per week in bitcoin no matter what for the next 5 years - which is $2,600 ($10 * 52 weeks * 5 years), then I would call that investing rather than gambling, even though at this time, I do not know how much the price of bitcoin is going to be in 5 years (and/or what other places I might have held/invested that value and whether I might have received a better return by investing that value somewhere else), but I am trying to lessen the number of guesses that I am making.  That would be following a kind of dollar cost averaging approach. DCA.

Now, if I take some variation of the same facts, and I tell myself that I have a $2,600 budget, and for the next 5 years I am going to buy bitcoin when it is low (or any other asset that is trade-able with relatively low fees) and to sell bitcoin when it is high in order to attempt to increase my $2,600 in a way that is better than the DCA approach over that same period of time, I might consider those practices to lean more towards a kind of gambling.  It is not a very good example, but my point is the more variables that are left to chance including trying to predict the ups and downs of price, then the more I would consider the practices to fall into a gambling camp rather than into an investing camp.

Another possibility would be that if I were not to have an ability to provide myself with a front-loaded $2,600 budget, so in this scenario, I can only add $10 per week to my "investing budget" over the next 5 years, so each week I add an additional $10 to my "investing budget," and I try to identify assets that are low in price and to sell them when they are higher in price within a reasonable period of time, and I would like to both have more than $2,600 at the end of 5 years of "investing" in this kind of a way (whether held in BTC or in other assets but I am frequently trying to time the market in order to increase the amount of money in my investment portfolio, but I would also like to beat the $10 per week DCA approach and to have had accumulated more BTC at the end of the 5 year period than I would have accumulated if I had merely engaged into a DCA practice. 

My point is that the more variables that I do not know and the more times that I am taking chances on unknown variables, then the more that the practice is likely to be classified by me as gambling rather than investing.

[Rengga Jati]

I personally don't have any problem with a loan and to take chances that front-loading the investment might pay off better than buying incrementally.  Each of us is free to exercise those kinds of potentially reasonable gambles - even with long term investment money.

Everyone has no problem with borrowing, it's free to do for certain interests, especially the use of the money taken is placed in investing in bitcoin.

I am not sure if everyone. Sometimes, some people are experiencing big problems with loans for investing in Bitcoin or crypto. The risk is much higher because we must pay the debt and maybe along with the interest. Not only that, not everyone is ready for Bitcoin investment. Sometimes, their expectations are very high but they are not ready for the risks, so they are prone to panic attacks, especially in a bearish era like this. And finally they experience losses and difficulties in paying these debts. In this case, it would be better if we use our own money to invest to reduce various risks. But again, this may be a matter of personal preference and ability. But especially for newbies, I really don't recommend going into debt to invest in crypto.

[JayJuanGee]

I personally don't have any problem with a loan and to take chances that front-loading the investment might pay off better than buying incrementally.  Each of us is free to exercise those kinds of potentially reasonable gambles - even with long term investment money.

Everyone has no problem with borrowing, it's free to do for certain interests, especially the use of the money taken is placed in investing in bitcoin.

I am not sure if everyone. Sometimes, some people are experiencing big problems with loans for investing in Bitcoin or crypto. The risk is much higher because we must pay the debt and maybe along with the interest. Not only that, not everyone is ready for Bitcoin investment. Sometimes, their expectations are very high but they are not ready for the risks, so they are prone to panic attacks, especially in a bearish era like this. And finally they experience losses and difficulties in paying these debts. In this case, it would be better if we use our own money to invest to reduce various risks. But again, this may be a matter of personal preference and ability. But especially for newbies, I really don't recommend going into debt to invest in crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here - not "crypto."

Fuck shitcoins, or the various other projects.. whatever it is that you mean by "crypto" that is not bitcoin or bitcoin-related.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.

Predictions like this are normal things to happen in my opinion, because the OP could have tried to calculate bitcoin's journey when it reached the previous ATH, so that in the next two years bitcoin can provide a large return on the investment it makes.

Yes.  I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake. And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing.  Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.

If the investment he made goes according to the target set, it will look good and will provide a solution to the loan he is doing, then what if bitcoin in the next two years is still in its current state. Let's say this is the worst assumption that we are trying to predict, even though the next two years may not be the case. I mean there are preventive actions that can be taken, if at any time the target set does not go according to the expected scenario.

I am not sure if I understand or even agree with what you are proposing in respect to "preventative measures" since it is quite true that at the time that any of us goes into a loan, we should be able to create our plans in accordance with all of the information that we know at the time of entering into the loan.  

There are quite a few things that are in our control, including what kinds of assets and cashflow that we already have and our abilities to consider the possible ups and downs of our own other assets and cashflow.

We also know the exact terms of the loan what is the percentage that is paid in interest/fees, what is the period of payment and the payment amounts.  

As far as the BTC price, there seem to be ONLY three possibilities, which is that the BTC price goes UP, DOWN or sideways.  We should be able to plan for those three possibilities, and sure we might have some changes in the other factors that we had considered to have had been fixed, but our plan for the period of the loan should not really be changing very much, so in that sense, there should not be any "preventative measures" that need to be taken, unless there was already a plan to employ such "preventative measures" if certain circumstances pass.

Everyone does not have to understand and agree with some of the assumptions that people want to convey, but the fact is that borrowing money at a bank is an outdated method and there are no greater benefits. If after borrowing you cannot calculate the principal amount of the loan, the monthly fee and the overall impact of the loan.

There is a side of complexity that is understood by many people in the money lending system at the bank, can this case be said to be true?
I mean the bank system applies several principles after providing loans to customers, starting from the sanctions and risks that must be accepted when the agreement has been implemented. This principle includes several risks that will occur, if the customer cannot pay off the monthly fee, the bank will take certain actions.

Three possible journeys of bitcoin, up, down and sideways.

Down: OP invested quite rightly by taking the price method when entering the market, I think this point is quite right.

Up: OP can wait for the bitcoin recovery process going forward, so that the investment made actually reaches the target he expects.

Sideways : I don't really understand the meaning of sideways, but I'm trying to assume that sideways is a condition where bitcoin is in the stage of a severe correction as it is today. This is where the OP went wrong in combining investments with loans in the bank, so the target set for two years is the portion of gambling he's trying to put as an investment, plus no reserve funds to max out for monthly contributions.

And in the end the OP has to be really good at conditioning his time, so that the investment journey that begins with borrowing money from the bank doesn't ruin his investment pattern, because the money he gets is used very properly for investing. If in the current month he has capital reserves to cover the bank's monthly fees, then all problems and worries will be answered by themselves. Because what I know, investing in bitcoin is a step to maintain the value of the currency and is the best asset in the long term.

He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin..

The biggest problem arose here, there was no other source of reserve funds as he started to run out of money to cover the bank's monthly fees, so when faced with difficult conditions he would decide to sell bitcoins. Thus the investment he made did not get any profit and you could say he failed miserably in implementing this investment pattern.

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose.  Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

This is an important point from the discussion that has been going on, gambling is the same as investment even though the pattern of work is different, because gambling is also part of prediction and investment is not much different from that pattern. If gambling expects a win, then investment expects a profit.

I would frame the differences between gambling and investment differently than you.  

From my point of view, some folks seem to convolute their definitions of gambling and/or investing in such a way that it becomes difficult to understand how they are differentiating the concepts, so in that sense sometimes it can be difficult to figure out what they mean when the are describing how gambling and investing differ from one another.

So in some sense it could reasonably be argued that gambling and investing are on a kind of spectrum in which if we go far on one end of the spectrum we are in the territory of gambling and if we go in the other direction then we are in the territory of investing, but there are some shared traits in the middle in which the definition could go either way.

So, for me, investing tends to involve having a longer timeline and also tends to involve the engaging in behaviors in which the amount of guessing is reduced.  So for example, if I say that I am going to invest $10 per week in bitcoin no matter what for the next 5 years - which is $2,600 ($10 * 52 weeks * 5 years), then I would call that investing rather than gambling, even though at this time, I do not know how much the price of bitcoin is going to be in 5 years (and/or what other places I might have held/invested that value and whether I might have received a better return by investing that value somewhere else), but I am trying to lessen the number of guesses that I am making.  That would be following a kind of dollar cost averaging approach. DCA.

Now, if I take some variation of the same facts, and I tell myself that I have a $2,600 budget, and for the next 5 years I am going to buy bitcoin when it is low (or any other asset that is trade-able with relatively low fees) and to sell bitcoin when it is high in order to attempt to increase my $2,600 in a way that is better than the DCA approach over that same period of time, I might consider those practices to lean more towards a kind of gambling.  It is not a very good example, but my point is the more variables that are left to chance including trying to predict the ups and downs of price, then the more I would consider the practices to fall into a gambling camp rather than into an investing camp.

Another possibility would be that if I were not to have an ability to provide myself with a front-loaded $2,600 budget, so in this scenario, I can only add $10 per week to my "investing budget" over the next 5 years, so each week I add an additional $10 to my "investing budget," and I try to identify assets that are low in price and to sell them when they are higher in price within a reasonable period of time, and I would like to both have more than $2,600 at the end of 5 years of "investing" in this kind of a way (whether held in BTC or in other assets but I am frequently trying to time the market in order to increase the amount of money in my investment portfolio, but I would also like to beat the $10 per week DCA approach and to have had accumulated more BTC at the end of the 5 year period than I would have accumulated if I had merely engaged into a DCA practice.  

My point is that the more variables that I do not know and the more times that I am taking chances on unknown variables, then the more that the practice is likely to be classified by me as gambling rather than investing.

In the difference in time it may be true that investing is more likely to take a long time, whereas gambling does not take the whole journey. In terms of this definition, there is indeed a difference between gambling and investment methods, but I mean that the closeness of the two is almost the same in the practice of speculation.

I have no skill in math, I mean when people try to narrate investing is very close to gambling only in certain areas. Investment allocates funds to get certain assets that are trying to buy like our discussion concerns bitcoin, while gambling risks assets and depends entirely on uncertain possibilities, in this area it is certain that investment and gambling have different sides.

Within this scope I can understand and definitely agree that gambling is different from investment, and in the end it is we who can clarify the direction of investment or get closer to gambling, in accordance with the understanding and function that we already know.

[fuguebtc]

Taking risks is sometimes necessary in investing, because great people are also mostly always willing to take risks.
because in high risk there is also high success.
but! must be truly mature and dare to bear all the worst possibilities.
and hopefully bitcoin in 2024 halving will exceed last year's halving.
all bitcoiners definitely want to profit, no one wants to lose.

careful calculation will always bring profit.

We must have the courage to do that and by taking risks we are ready to succeed with the actions taken along with the responsibilities, we must not be afraid of investment because from the worst there must be a process of recovery and also success so don't hesitate if you invest by choosing bitcoin basically we will see better profit over the next few years.

Well, we all as bitcoin investors want to make a profit, but we have to be able to go through a process of obstacles, don't stop in the middle of the road, we have to be prepared for any circumstances until bitcoin recovers again.

It's with that calculation that needs to be looked at, but when counting on a shitcoin, it's a mistake they made.

Of course, in any case, risks cannot be avoided, and of course, don't stop investing in bitcoin halfway, we all know the cycle in general, when the Bitcoin price is bearish, winter, and bullish, this cycle is common, and we can see it.

But Borrowing money in the bank at this time and investing in bitcoins is not in a hurry? considering the halving schedule will occur in 2024, OP will have to wait a year if he really wants the benefits that are worth the wait.
I think it's terrible if not to have any income from our job to pay the bank bills each month, but it looks like OP has enough income to cover his bills.

I give a thumbs up for his bravery, as a Bitcoiner and of course, I also support his actions.

If it is true as you say, he has an income and can afford to pay interest every month, then I do not object to his action, but if he does not have a stable income, then I do not agree.

We all predict 2024 is the time when bitcoin will go up in price and OP will have enough money to pay those loans, but there is no certainty bitcoin will go up in price by that time. It's all speculation, so OP needs more than 1 plan for 2024. OP's actions are pretty reckless, I don't think I have the courage to do it. Although it takes risks to succeed, with bitcoin not, an asset with a future is still a question mark.

[Dickiy]

I think I should and would not borrow money to invest in a product that takes a long time to make a profit. I will use my extra money to invest in a planned way. Investing itself is risky. If you also borrow money to invest, your risk multiple will increase.

But if you can stick to your plan, I think I admire you and your courage.

The right decision for you if you really don't have extra income or have heavy bills every month, of course, today will be a long time for bitcoin to peak again, but you can use your extra savings to invest in bitcoin with the DCA strategy is not a thing that makes you trouble or rather a little risk.
But if you have more income and your needs are met so you have some money to manage better, I don't think taking out a loan is not a big deal because basically, you can pay the bill with your income, and you can buy a lot of Bitcoin at the current lowest price.

[Sayeds56]

I think that the area in which OP went wrong was that it appears that he was calculating that the BTC price will go up during the next two years, and he seems to calculate that into his plan as if it were guaranteed, and even if the odds might be greater than 50% that the BTC price will go up in the next two years, that seems to be allowing for too many loose ends in regards to how to play a 8% to 10% per year interest rate that guarantees a certain level that he has to cover in the loan just to pay the servicing of it and how much the loan is costing him.

Predictions like this are normal things to happen in my opinion, because the OP could have tried to calculate bitcoin's journey when it reached the previous ATH, so that in the next two years bitcoin can provide a large return on the investment it makes.

Yes.  I said that it was a problem for OP to be expecting 2x to 5x returns in 2 years even though other people make the same mistake. And, yes it might happen, but it is a problem to assign too high of a probability to such expectations, as OP seemed to have had been doing.  Just because a lot of people do it does not mean that there should not be some kind of an attempt to clarify the matter, which was what I was doing.

If the investment he made goes according to the target set, it will look good and will provide a solution to the loan he is doing, then what if bitcoin in the next two years is still in its current state. Let's say this is the worst assumption that we are trying to predict, even though the next two years may not be the case. I mean there are preventive actions that can be taken, if at any time the target set does not go according to the expected scenario.

I am not sure if I understand or even agree with what you are proposing in respect to "preventative measures" since it is quite true that at the time that any of us goes into a loan, we should be able to create our plans in accordance with all of the information that we know at the time of entering into the loan.  

There are quite a few things that are in our control, including what kinds of assets and cashflow that we already have and our abilities to consider the possible ups and downs of our own other assets and cashflow.

We also know the exact terms of the loan what is the percentage that is paid in interest/fees, what is the period of payment and the payment amounts.  

As far as the BTC price, there seem to be ONLY three possibilities, which is that the BTC price goes UP, DOWN or sideways.  We should be able to plan for those three possibilities, and sure we might have some changes in the other factors that we had considered to have had been fixed, but our plan for the period of the loan should not really be changing very much, so in that sense, there should not be any "preventative measures" that need to be taken, unless there was already a plan to employ such "preventative measures" if certain circumstances pass.

He also seems to NOT have other funding sources, such as a cashflow and/or other monies to assure that he does not have to sell his bitcoin..

The biggest problem arose here, there was no other source of reserve funds as he started to run out of money to cover the bank's monthly fees, so when faced with difficult conditions he would decide to sell bitcoins. Thus the investment he made did not get any profit and you could say he failed miserably in implementing this investment pattern.

Well, OP seems to be gambling that he is not going to lose.  Yeah, so far his the BTC price seems to be going the wrong way, but it is still possible that he could end up profiting from the loan if the BTC price goes up in such a way that covers both his principle and the fees that he is supposed to pay.

This is an important point from the discussion that has been going on, gambling is the same as investment even though the pattern of work is different, because gambling is also part of prediction and investment is not much different from that pattern. If gambling expects a win, then investment expects a profit.

I would frame the differences between gambling and investment differently than you.  

From my point of view, some folks seem to convolute their definitions of gambling and/or investing in such a way that it becomes difficult to understand how they are differentiating the concepts, so in that sense sometimes it can be difficult to figure out what they mean when the are describing how gambling and investing differ from one another.

So in some sense it could reasonably be argued that gambling and investing are on a kind of spectrum in which if we go far on one end of the spectrum we are in the territory of gambling and if we go in the other direction then we are in the territory of investing, but there are some shared traits in the middle in which the definition could go either way.

So, for me, investing tends to involve having a longer timeline and also tends to involve the engaging in behaviors in which the amount of guessing is reduced.  So for example, if I say that I am going to invest $10 per week in bitcoin no matter what for the next 5 years - which is $2,600 ($10 * 52 weeks * 5 years), then I would call that investing rather than gambling, even though at this time, I do not know how much the price of bitcoin is going to be in 5 years (and/or what other places I might have held/invested that value and whether I might have received a better return by investing that value somewhere else), but I am trying to lessen the number of guesses that I am making.  That would be following a kind of dollar cost averaging approach. DCA.

Now, if I take some variation of the same facts, and I tell myself that I have a $2,600 budget, and for the next 5 years I am going to buy bitcoin when it is low (or any other asset that is trade-able with relatively low fees) and to sell bitcoin when it is high in order to attempt to increase my $2,600 in a way that is better than the DCA approach over that same period of time, I might consider those practices to lean more towards a kind of gambling.  It is not a very good example, but my point is the more variables that are left to chance including trying to predict the ups and downs of price, then the more I would consider the practices to fall into a gambling camp rather than into an investing camp.

Another possibility would be that if I were not to have an ability to provide myself with a front-loaded $2,600 budget, so in this scenario, I can only add $10 per week to my "investing budget" over the next 5 years, so each week I add an additional $10 to my "investing budget," and I try to identify assets that are low in price and to sell them when they are higher in price within a reasonable period of time, and I would like to both have more than $2,600 at the end of 5 years of "investing" in this kind of a way (whether held in BTC or in other assets but I am frequently trying to time the market in order to increase the amount of money in my investment portfolio, but I would also like to beat the $10 per week DCA approach and to have had accumulated more BTC at the end of the 5 year period than I would have accumulated if I had merely engaged into a DCA practice.  

My point is that the more variables that I do not know and the more times that I am taking chances on unknown variables, then the more that the practice is likely to be classified by me as gambling rather than investing.

You have beautifully drawn a fine line between investment and gambling which is generally difficult to distinguish and people often confuse gambling with investment. The main difference is the risk involved. Investment is done with long term goals like we buy Bitcoin and continue accumulating it during the bear run and this kind of investment is less risky because it is consensus among all analysts, & history has vindicated it again and again, that it always pays off huge rewards to those who believe in its potential to outsmart all other class of assets.

[JoyMarsha]

When you strive for the best in life, you are willing to take the required steps and risks to see your goals realized in the future. Even though our future is still uncertain, we still think that our bitcoin investment has the potential to help things work out well for us.

Some may find your decision to loan money from the bank to purchase one whole bitcoin risky and ill-advised, but I think it was brave on your part because you planned your investments over a two-year period, which is the bull market.

Congratulations on being one of those people who holds 1 bitcoin in a hard wallet. ahead are better days. Keep holding. I will love to hear your story in 2year's time of how bitcoin has given 500% profits as you have expected