Is Bitcoin's price "basically a fire sale"?

[dragonvslinux]

While we've seen other models more or less break, or become irrelevant, such as Stock to Flow and Logarithmic Growth Curve, but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?



Although based on a logarithmic growth curve, it does appear to be more accurate than the alternative log growth that effectively became invalidated in March 2020 (despite price recovering afterwards). Currently the model suggests that price is "basically a fire sale" around $20K, with current bubble territory @ $240K and a maximum low of $41K by the next halving in 2024.

It otherwise consider <$37K as accumulation territory and $50K as still cheap, which feels a bit ironic at current prices. What are your thoughts?

[1714779011]

1714779011

[1714779011]

1714779011

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

I am doing my best JJG.

I  DCA weekly at  this time.

I consider any price under $22,222.22 as weekly dca territory

[jackg]

While we've seen other models more or less break, or become irrelevant, such as Stock to Flow and Logarithmic Growth Curve, but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?

I think we'll see movements inversely proportional to bitcoin's inflation but I don't think any model is going to be very accurate on predicting bitcoin's price for a while.

Waiting for one to be invalidated is going to be a bit problematic too - but the pattern of when inflation reduces, price increases has always held and has more reason to be held.

The rainbow chart looks a lot more flexible too with bitcoin's price though (like how it's fallen out of the bottom of the rainbow before so an event like that would be noteworthy but not the end of the model).

[GreatArkansas]

This kind of chart is one of the many reasons why the current price level of Bitcoin is a good buy, if you also take a look at the Fear and Greed index, it is still showing that good to buy too.
To be honest, there are still a lot of people who are afraid and we can't blame them. Even though we will say that it's in the sale, we cannot do something.

[bittraffic]

I am doing my best JJG.

I  DCA weekly at  this time.

I consider any price under $22,222.22 as weekly dca territory

How is it now?
Just like you, I tried DCAing when the price bounced at $29000 but eventually its dipping this this low.  I would be very careful this time not to waste my stablecoin. In the last bear market, the price of BTC dips at about -80% which it may also be possible this time which could be $10000.

$20000 sure its fire sale. Anything beyond that is more than black friday sale.

[mk4]

No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.

[adaseb]

Yes it’s a fire sale pretty much until the next fire sale. Many said it was a fire sale at $60k,$50k,$40k,$30k. And now we are at $20K.

Might even be a fire sale at $15k and it’ll head lower. Now is a bad time to make that assumption. Summers are chop for many markets and now we are only interested in the CPI data. If rate hikes are working or not. If we see some deflation for a few months then bottom is in. If we see 1.5% inflation then markets will tank again.

[stompix]

but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?

When the chart is "accurate" if the price stays between 18k and 323k, it's like betting that in a basketball match there will be between 30 and 500 points...
Besides, despite the logarithmic values going it such margins it has already failed twice, so it can do so tomorrow, it's just a drawing, if everything in the world could be predicted as such we wouldn't have "speculation".

Yes it’s a fire sale pretty much until the next fire sale. Many said it was a fire sale at $60k,$50k,$40k,$30k. And now we are at $20K.
Might even be a fire sale at $15k and it’ll head lower.

There are quite a few waiting for the 15k, that might be the last fire sale as if we go below is going to be a blood sell.
Already all the charts all the never below ATH, never done that and this and that has been broken in this bear market, but if we go that deep it's going to be painful, really really painful.

[Jawhead999]

The basis of agreement on the understanding you mentioned is that the current conditions are the right step to make purchases of Bitcoin, generally people will stop at this low point, because they think that this will be over, even though if you look at the bitcoin cycle in 2017 to 2021 it is almost similar.

Then what anxiety makes many people feel excessively afraid?

Actually they're not stop at this situation, but they're want to make same 4 year cycle like you mentioned above, they're think that Bitcoin price will make new ATH on 2025 if they're stick with the 4 year cycle. Since this year is supposed to be the bottom, they're converting their Bitcoin to stable coin and waiting until the bottom. At that times they will hold until 2025 and sold it.

The anxiety is because of so many experts or speculators that predict Bitcoin price will goes below $10K, $1K and so on, they're investing because of people prediction lol.

[ImThour]

If I talk about the long-term plan for Bitcoin, I will say yes, it's basically a fire sale.
But If I look at the current economy and situation in which we are, I would say there is yet a bottom to be priced in.

I would say the End of this year or in November, should be the bottom and then we can expect the price to be called actual bottom.

[Poker Player]

I don't know if calling it a fire comes out but I certainly see it as cheap. Now, I quite agree with stompix, predictive models are fine for speculation, but not for prediction. We have seen some very sophisticated ones fail.

And in that even if the price is cheap, if panic sets in again, we can go much lower.

Celsius' liquidation price is about $14k, and getting there would be a disaster but I don't rule out that they may bring in more collateral as they already did to lower the liquidation price.

In any case, I think if we go down to $15k or whatever, we won't last long at sub $20k levels.

[buwaytress]

Fire sale getting more fuel right now it seems. Bleh.

Yes it’s a fire sale pretty much until the next fire sale. Many said it was a fire sale at $60k,$50k,$40k,$30k. And now we are at $20K.

Might even be a fire sale at $15k and it’ll head lower. Now is a bad time to make that assumption. Summers are chop for many markets and now we are only interested in the CPI data. If rate hikes are working or not. If we see some deflation for a few months then bottom is in. If we see 1.5% inflation then markets will tank again.

Yeah, hate to say it but I'm definitely looking at the next two rate hikes (one coming in 3 weeks and then another in September). CPI data in between also largely expected to be bad news, so pricing in will happen regardless of the outcomes -- and it'd be naive to expect anything other than what everyone's hinting at already.

So it'll be some more battering running up to Q4 before we can hope for signs of turnaround to the global economy. That's really not going to get fixed for a while.

Companies now liquidating crypto to hang on to cash for the time being, and not that we should all follow, but at the very least to keep DCA on autopilot.

[dragonvslinux]

but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?

Besides, despite the logarithmic values going it such margins it has already failed twice, so it can do so tomorrow

As far as I can tell the rainbow model hasn't failed yet, as it factors in the regression from the lows as opposed to the highs. It's only left this model to the upside as opposed to the downside basically.

it's just a drawing, if everything in the world could be predicted as such we wouldn't have "speculation".

I think you'll find your first line invalidates your second. As you said the model could fail tomorrow, so surely it's still speculation to be relying on this model when it could still fail ?
This is why Bitcoin's bottom can not be predicted, because it depends on speculating using these models and others... hoping they won't fail. RIP stock to flow.

[Oilacris]

No idea just accumulating

Doesnt matter if its the bottom or not but i do consider on accumulating as much as i could even though the price might be going even further on next days or weeks or months
and as long i dont sell even i bought on higher prices then it wont be considered to be losses thats why accumulating is best on these particular times.

Im amazed with that rainbow chart in speaking on price history of Bitcoin which is typically on point if we do speak or basing up with technicals
which do really somewhat gives out some idea on where we do heading up.

[minime0105]

If I talk about the long-term plan for Bitcoin, I will say yes, it's basically a fire sale.
But If I look at the current economy and situation in which we are, I would say there is yet a bottom to be priced in.

I would say the End of this year or in November, should be the bottom and then we can expect the price to be called actual bottom.

that means from your estimate and validation Bitcoin still have more bottom line to go, you made a point of November that from what you understand bitcoin can start making a positive move from November and that should be the end point of the bottom. Even out that particular point you mentioned I don't think that bitcoin can resurrect from that time. If bitcoin are to be corrected in the market our expectation should be waiting until the end of the year because the bottom or Bitcoin is not something that we can conclude this time for bottom value because it seems that bitcoin will fall again to 12k before it will conclude falling

[stompix]

As far as I can tell the rainbow model hasn't failed yet, as it factors in the regression from the lows as opposed to the highs. It's only left this model to the upside as opposed to the downside basically.

And here you go again, defending a chart that was created as a joke.
Look at it, look at the lines, see the lines outside the chart, it means it has failed.

If my mechanic tells me that my bike will blow at 10k RPM and I'm doing trip after trip pushing it to 14k, it means I have to change my mechanic not my bike.

I think you'll find your first line invalidates your second. As you said the model could fail tomorrow, so surely it's still speculation to be relying on this model when it could still fail ?

I don't see how you could have come to that conclusion
1) In the first line I'm telling you the chart was a joke and obviously it will fail
2) In the second line I'm telling you that if somebody would find a way to perfectly predict the price there will be no more speculation as we would know for sure
How is that contradiction?

This is why Bitcoin's bottom can not be predicted,

Willing to bet that will not stop you from drawing more charts and hope to get at least one right  

[dragonvslinux]

As far as I can tell the rainbow model hasn't failed yet, as it factors in the regression from the lows as opposed to the highs. It's only left this model to the upside as opposed to the downside basically.

And here you go again, defending a chart that was created as a joke.

I doubt it was created as a joke. Care to reference that? I'd be curious to see the creator's reasoning for that.

Look at it, look at the lines, see the lines outside the chart, it means it has failed.

Yes I see them, the upper band was badly aligned that much is certain. I can see how a more regressive upper band could easily connect the three peaks, which would factor in reduced volatility as well. Even with two peaks that most recent peak could have been much better anticipated. Given that was created in late 2014 though, and price exceeded the upper band in late 2013, it didn't fail anyone...

But this isn't relevant to the lower band that's still in tact (and what I'm referring to).

If my mechanic tells me that my bike will blow at 10k RPM and I'm doing trip after trip pushing it to 14k, it means I have to change my mechanic not my bike.

Strange analogy but I'll roll with it, as you could otherwise just change your mindset and not take everything so simplistically from a so-called expert. If your mechanic says your bike will blow @ X, what they really mean is it can blow @ X, as it's unlikely they definitively know what would happen. They probably have a duty to warn you about the potential risk of doing so as well, as could be very dangerous to push a bike beyond it's limits. Imagine if they didn't warn you? How would they feel if you ended up in hospital over it? Maybe they just want to sell you a more expensive bike. But really, the mechanic oversimplified the situation. Did he say it will blow immediately? Of course not. Would you be damaging your bike if it's only guaranteeing 10k RPM? It's possible.

Should you take this one mechanics opinion as truth? Of course not. You could take a second opinion, someone else with more experience might tell you it'll be fine, but would wear your bike out sooner. Then you can make a better informed decision on whether you want to take the risk of wearing out your bike much quicker (if that is indeed the case), or get a bike that can guarantee 14k RPM.

I have no idea what this has to do with Bitcoin's rainbow chart though  

it's just a drawing, if everything in the world could be predicted as such we wouldn't have "speculation".

I think you'll find your first line invalidates your second. As you said the model could fail tomorrow, so surely it's still speculation to be relying on this model when it could still fail ?

I don't see how you could have come to that conclusion
1) In the first line I'm telling you the chart was a joke and obviously it will fail
2) In the second line I'm telling you that if somebody would find a way to perfectly predict the price there will be no more speculation as we would know for sure
How is that contradiction?

Probably because so far this chart has accurately predicted the bottoms (since it's creation), but it obviously doesn't mean it will continue to do so; hence it's always been speculative. Any model, despite how accurate it's been over the years or decades, can always fail at any time. Predictions, by definition, are never guarantees, so it'd still be speculation despite it's accuracy.

In summary, the contradiction comes from fundamentally not recognising that correct predictions are still based on speculation.

[lizarder]

The basis of agreement on the understanding you mentioned is that the current conditions are the right step to make purchases of Bitcoin, generally people will stop at this low point, because they think that this will be over, even though if you look at the bitcoin cycle in 2017 to 2021 it is almost similar.

Then what anxiety makes many people feel excessively afraid?

Actually they're not stop at this situation, but they're want to make same 4 year cycle like you mentioned above, they're think that Bitcoin price will make new ATH on 2025 if they're stick with the 4 year cycle. Since this year is supposed to be the bottom, they're converting their Bitcoin to stable coin and waiting until the bottom. At that times they will hold until 2025 and sold it.

The anxiety is because of so many experts or speculators that predict Bitcoin price will goes below $10K, $1K and so on, they're investing because of people prediction lol.

For now I don't think that bitcoin will finish just because of a correction, it's really confusing if we enter this space with such a narrow understanding and that's why I personally don't follow stupid observations that only make references on the basis of corrections.

The annual cycle that occurs with bitcoin, should be a reference, that market conditions react accordingly, if our analytical skills exceed that, then it is certain that the final decision will be quite profitable, hopefully we are in that position

[stompix]

I doubt it was created as a joke. Care to reference that? I'd be curious to see the creator's reasoning for that.

It's exactly below the image you quoted in the first post, Trolololo never played with rainbows.

Yes I see them, the upper band was badly aligned that much is certain.

Which means it failed! Simple as that, no need for three lines of nothing. It failed!

Strange analogy but I'll roll with it, as you could otherwise just change your mindset and not take everything so simplistically from a so-called expert. If your mechanic says your bike will blow @ X, what they really mean is it

Nope.
Quite funny, you're taking over my scenario and you have the nerve to say the mechanic said: "can"?
No, I have him recorded on tape he said "it will", and he was damn sure like everyone here was damn sure this and that won't happen because...charts.
When you discuss somebody's analogy you stick to it, you don't put can, might, probably, or any other value where there is none, as it stops becoming my analogy and it starts being your own.

Probably because so far this chart has accurately predicted the bottoms (since it's creation), but it obviously doesn't mean it will continue to do so; hence it's always been speculative. Any model, despite how accurate it's been over the years or decades, can always fail at any time. Predictions, by definition, are never guarantees, so it'd still be speculation despite it's accuracy.
In summary, the contradiction comes from fundamentally not recognising that correct predictions are still based on speculation.

Your point, other than circling around and not waiting to admit I was right, is?  

[dragonvslinux]

I doubt it was created as a joke. Care to reference that? I'd be curious to see the creator's reasoning for that.

It's exactly below the image you quoted in the first post, Trolololo never played with rainbows.

It merely says (as a disclaimer):

The Rainbow Chart is not investment advice! Past performance is not an indication of future results. The Rainbow Chart is meant to be be a fun way of looking at long term price movements, disregarding the daily volatility “noise”...

No reference of it being a joke? Of course it's fun, it's intended as entertainment (not financial advise). Saves getting sued if it breaks in the wrong direction.
I see what you mean though that Trolololo created the logarithmic regression, rather than the colour bands aka rainbow chart. Fair point.

It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore.

Yes I see them, the upper band was badly aligned that much is certain.

Which means it failed! Simple as that, no need for three lines of nothing. It failed!

You're clearly ignoring the fact it was created in/after 2014: after 2013 when price left the upper band. It couldn't have failed as it never existed back then  

It was created with this inaccuracy, while the lower bands have remained accurate since then and until now at least. Even the upper bands weren't wrong in 2021, it merely suggested that price wasn't in maximum bubble territory, only reaching a FOMO stage, which many people agree with ironically. Crying failed when it hasn't weakens your argument that it will fail imo, even though it probably will.

Strange analogy but I'll roll with it, as you could otherwise just change your mindset and not take everything so simplistically from a so-called expert. If your mechanic says your bike will blow @ X, what they really mean is it can blow

Nope.
Quite funny, you're taking over my scenario and you have the nerve to say the mechanic said: "can"?

Nice try, no cigar. Have replaced my quote back in it for you to read properly. I clearly said what they mean, not what they said, which are two completely different concepts.
At least stick to the facts...

No, I have him recorded on tape he said "it will", and he was damn sure like everyone here was damn sure this and that won't happen because...charts.

So the point you're making is you can't take charts with statistical projections for outright facts or guarantees? congratulations on such a discovery, this is the entire point of charts. So if your mechanic knew better, he should have said your bike would properly blow, because the probability based on statistical data means that should probably happen. Does it mean it would happen? Of course not. Even with a 99% chance it obviously doesn't mean it would happen...

Maybe a better understanding of what statistical projections implies would be better, for yourself as well as the mechanic, so as to avoid confusion ? Ultimately, if he was referencing charts to argue his point, it should have been obvious (to both you and the mechanic) that there was an element of probability involved, even if there had been rigorous testing etc. You can never take statistical projections as facts, obviously.

Something can be right 100 times, even a billion times, and can still be wrong eventually. It simply comes down to the probability of it becoming wrong, whether that be 1% or 0.000001% chance.