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Author Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value  (Read 96034 times)
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Trolololo
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October 22, 2014, 05:47:44 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), Cluster2k (1), ralle14 (1)
 #1

In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:

Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE
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Trolololo
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October 22, 2014, 05:48:07 PM
 #2

Post reserved for links to previous chart updates:
2014-10-14 Chart v1.1
2015-03-09 Chart v2.0
2015-05-28 Chart v2.1
2016-04-15 Chart v2.2
2017-01-03 Chart v2.3












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October 22, 2014, 05:48:36 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)
 #3

To understand what I have done, I recommended to visit:
1) Rpietila's thread: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend
2) SlipperySlope's thread: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model
3) Rpeter's post: Latest graphs showing nice correlation between prices and adoption (squared) - Metcalfe's Law
4) Raystonn's thread: Metcalfe's Law: Bitcoin Price and Adoption Analysis for the Future
5) jl2012's thread: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly)
6) gbianchi's thread A Bitcoin price theory
7) Joe200's thread Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions


Why QR codes inside the charts?
The idea is to attach a unique bitcoin address to each chart, to be able to track wich (if any), you prefer.
That's why you will see a different QR (bitcoin address) in each chart I post.
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October 22, 2014, 05:49:13 PM
 #4

Chart with data until 2014-10-14:

Donations: 19AYtA4xFM7izR7BAXKr9TLJkrAJsvcfFm


If we "flatten" the red logarithmic line, we get the spread between the price and the estimated value:

Donations: 1BgnScfDU5QvKUGCqKKsDm62YxKzh5sjCn


This is how the 2011 and 2013 (1) bubbles look like in linear price axis:

Donations: 1EbbkBkTDZ667bUxHNHtxhAysFEAWVgWB4

And this is how the 2011 and 2013 (1&2) bubbles look like in linear price axis:

Donations: 196xJM7c4jjhHkUp7CnrKG2joXPe57uNRF


Calculate today's trendline price HERE

Projected:
     1.000  24-04-2015
    10.000  22-11-2017
   100.000  16-07-2021
1.000.000  06-09-2026
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October 22, 2014, 08:09:58 PM
 #5

Nice graphics and nice work!  Wink

What software did you use?
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October 22, 2014, 08:52:05 PM
 #6

Very very interesting…  Tongue

In this OP I will always post the last updated charts:



Nice work with the charts. Thanks for sharing with us.
I'm going to stay on that topic to check your updates and estimates.

2015 could be an important year for bitcoin. Not just to become mainstream… It's going to be a "key year" because of the projects related with the bitcoin ecosystem consolidation.

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October 22, 2014, 09:02:10 PM
 #7

Very interesting chart. I could definitely see BTC reaching $1k around April 2015 and then hovering around there until Q4 2015. The block reward halving will be a focus of discussion and I can imagine that topic causing a x10 increase to around $10k in late 2015. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
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October 22, 2014, 09:14:29 PM
 #8

Nice graphics and nice work!  Wink

What software did you use?


Excel.

As Rpietila says, you can do amazing things with excel.
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October 22, 2014, 10:40:11 PM
 #9

In what year does your regression intersect with $1M USD?
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October 22, 2014, 10:44:20 PM
 #10

-25% or -37% on the y-axis of the 1Bgn graph? The right and left axes disagree.

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October 22, 2014, 11:05:55 PM
 #11

-25% or -37% on the y-axis of the 1Bgn graph? The right and left axes disagree.



-37% (it's the calculation of 1 - 10^-0.2)

Thanks. I'll fix that.


Edit: fixed
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October 22, 2014, 11:27:19 PM
 #12

Probably about right.  Grin

But let's not forget the massive volatility we will have getting there!

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October 23, 2014, 12:14:23 AM
 #13

What price do you get in 2075? In my opinion the "equilibrium" price of Bitcoin is one of the easier numbers to make rational arguments about (thermodynamics is always on sounder footing than kinetics, etc.).
For example, if you get $1 trillion per BTC in 2075, I would say the model is problematic, however well fitted. If you get something in the $1-10 million range, then you're probably in the ballpark. (these models assume a certain optimism about adoption already)
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October 23, 2014, 12:33:05 AM
 #14

What price do you get in 2075? In my opinion the "equilibrium" price of Bitcoin is one of the easier numbers to make rational arguments about (thermodynamics is always on sounder footing than kinetics, etc.).
For example, if you get $1 trillion per BTC in 2075, I would say the model is problematic, however well fitted. If you get something in the $1-10 million range, then you're probably in the ballpark. (these models assume a certain optimism about adoption already)


By year 2075 I will be dead.

The curve will always grow, but slowlier and slowlier as time goes by. Just like the Bitcoin emission curve.
This logarithmic regression is way better than the linear regression. But it's just a model, not a crystal ball.

The curve will flatten or steepen depending on the future price fluctuations, but not much.
I will recalculate the regression from time to time. Maybe monthly, or once every three or four months.

I made the chart for myself, and I later thought that it would be worth sharing it with you all.

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October 23, 2014, 12:38:10 AM
 #15

Very interesting chart. I could definitely see BTC reaching $1k around April 2015 and then hovering around there until Q4 2015. The block reward halving will be a focus of discussion and I can imagine that topic causing a x10 increase to around $10k in late 2015. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

Probably about right.  Grin

But let's not forget the massive volatility we will have getting there!

To figure out what can happen in the future price and volatility, read these interesting thoughts: 100,000 block countdown - What will happen at the next halving?
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October 23, 2014, 12:39:17 AM
 #16

In what year does your regression intersect with $1M USD?


I will answer you tomorrow.

Edit: 06-09-2026
cuddaloreappu
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October 23, 2014, 05:06:55 AM
 #17



tomorrow came... please tell when million dollar btc
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October 23, 2014, 07:20:43 AM
 #18

Interesting chart. It's also in line with the hyperinflationary QE-to-infinity scenario which is to unfold when stock and other markets crash. Of course, that $10k in 2017 won't buy you as much as it can buy today.
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October 23, 2014, 08:12:25 AM
 #19

Added to the OP:
Calculate today's trendline price HERE
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October 23, 2014, 08:21:20 AM
 #20

Added to the OP:
Calculate today's trendline price HERE

Your work is really great. This trendline seems realistic.

Could you provide a date for the one million dollar price ? Or extend your chart a little bit ?
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