Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price in August?

[Hold-n-play]

137,000 BTC worth roughly $2.8 billion will soon be released into the market as funds lost to the Mt. Gox hack of 2011 and subsequent loss of 850,000 BTC worth around $17.8 billion at today’s price. In 2014 Mt. Gox reported that it had found 200,000 BTC, but those coins have been locked in litigation until now.

https://news.coincu.com/108363-mt-gox-to-disburse-150k-btc-is-approaching/

Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price? Or is it another FUD in attempt to dump the price of BTC?

According to coincu.com:

"...many creditors have already sold their claims to crypto funds. Groups such as Fortress Investment Group LLC offered creditors an early payout of between $600 and $1,300 in cash.

Moreover, creditors who do not want to pay early may not want to liquidate their Bitcoin because they want to store long-term BTC. Many of those who plan to receive payment with Bitcoin are likely to store BTC rather than selling it when Bitcoin has decreased by more than 60%. Others invest in altcoins like Ethereum."

[1714953780]

1714953780

[1714953780]

1714953780

[DaveF]

I am going to go with probably not much. Some people will sell because they need to get fiat for whatever reason. But, I think most others that have been waiting years are going to wait for the next bull run. At which point 200000 coins although a large number is not going to matter much as they are not all going to be dumped at once. And even a few hundred or a few thousand being put into the open market over a few days is not that big a deal IMO.

As for the people who bought out peoples claims for very little. They are the ones who are going to sit on the coins till well into the next big bull run since they are in it for the money.

Obviously, this is all just what I think, could be totally wrong.

-Dave

[Bttzed03]

~ Many of those who plan to receive payment with Bitcoin are likely to store BTC rather than selling it when Bitcoin has decreased by more than 60%.

Yeah it dropped sharply but let's not forget that the Mt. Gox incident was like 2014 and the price back then was just around $500-$600 per bitcoin. The current price isn't going to be much of a factor because they are clearly still in a good place if they decide to sell once they got their share.

As to the effect on the market, it might cause another dive to $18K level (could be lower) but it will be absorbed like any other sell offs.

[darkangel11]

Nobody can predict that with certainty. It will depend on how many people need money now and how many can afford to hold knowing that bitcoin is down 70% from its high.
Those who had btc for trading in 2013 and wanted to make fiat as soon as possible will probably sell. Those who despite losing money on Gox bought back in and remained in the space will probably hold or at least hold some of it.

[Charles-Tim]

Will the Mt. Gox coins affect Bitcoin’s price? Or is it another FUD in attempt to dump the price of BTC?

The bitcoin lost means the coin value is distributed on other remaining coins in circulation, this makes the remaining coin in circulation to have more value as the supply in circulation reduced as the lower the supply the higher the price. If coins that has been abandoned for years is introduced back into circulation, this may affect the price of bitcoin as the supply in circulation increases as dormant coin in the past is released into circulation as they distribute it for people. But the question should be 'is 137000 BTC large enough to cause price decrease'? I think it is not significant enough to cause significant effect on bitcoin price.

[franky1]

~ Many of those who plan to receive payment with Bitcoin are likely to store BTC rather than selling it when Bitcoin has decreased by more than 60%.

Yeah it dropped sharply but let's not forget that the Mt. Gox incident was like 2014 and the price back then was just around $500-$600 per bitcoin. The current price isn't going to be much of a factor because they are clearly still in a good place if they decide to sell once they got their share.

As to the effect on the market, it might cause another dive to $18K level (could be lower) but it will be absorbed like any other sell offs.

on the weigh of averages

the price at the MTGox close was in the $100-$1200 range for the couple years prior to close.. lets call it an even $400 for pencil math(not everyone bought at the same time)

imagine it was for easy pencil math.. 850k customers with 1btc each
well they aint all getting 1btc each back... they are getting (pencil math scenario) a 6th of their account balance

which is on average 0.16117647
which at todays price is still $3k

so still profit in the end. so selling is still profit

the only thing that matters is that its not a case where the coins are going to need to be sold by court order of settlement in one shot/one order to fulful a court ordered fiat amount settlement

by releasing the fund AS COINS. it atleast wont be a full 137k sell off in one shot. one sell order.
instead it can be sporadic and long term selling off chunks by old whales with more then a few coins.

though with all that said.
selling at the bottom of todays market is stupid.
they are in profit and some may just want out and forget about crypto there will be some sell off.
and some that may just hold

and now have fun speculating.. because no one knows what all the people will choose.

..
if i personally had coins in at the time. and a meaningful amount. i would have years ago wrote them off as a loss and forgot about them so it wont consume my life/stress levels.
then if getting a letter saying im getting a 6th of my balance mid summer. id choose to hoard. i wouldnt sell at this low market price even if they are in profit.
(but then again i actually do have my own hoard from 2012era, at super profit which i kept in my own private key where im not ready to sell)
though i do expect others to just want to sell up and move on if they totally removed themselves from crypto years ago

[NeuroticFish]

and now have fun speculating.. because no one knows what all the people will choose.

I'd guess that a "safe bet" would be that about half of the people will sell. The problem is that probably that doesn't mean half of the funds, so still no clue.


On the other hand, is the repayment date set in stone? I mean that news about imminent repayment and/or imminent sell off of MtGox funds keep popping out every few months. I know that it's bound to happen sooner or later, but.. when is that? I think that even those who will handle the repayment know that it looks much better if that average 0.16BTC means $20k than $3k...

[franky1]

and now have fun speculating.. because no one knows what all the people will choose.

I'd guess that a "safe bet" would be that about half of the people will sell. The problem is that probably that doesn't mean half of the funds, so still no clue.

On the other hand, is the repayment date set in stone? I mean that news about imminent repayment and/or imminent sell off of MtGox funds keep popping out every few months.

other things to consider.
imagine there were 100k customers..
all getting a split of the funds

its not going to be a single TX of 100k outputs
its going to be separate transactions over hours/days.
because the auditors will need to make a batch TX of X customers.
wait for the confirm. and triple check things as the funds go out per batch

its not a push button and forget thing for litigators/courts and auditors to do

so dont expect it all to release in one shot. and then dont expect all receivers to unanimously or even 50% of them to collectively decide to sell at the exact same moment.

with some exchanges only doing a couple hundred btc volume a day.. even if it was 10% of the stash being sold (13k) in one day. it can affect the prices

[Minecache]

It is difficult to predict what will happen in this case, it is more likely that those who need money will sell their bitcoins as soon as they receive them. Those who don't need cash urgently may not be in a hurry to sell bitcoin because they already know that bitcoin is in a bear market and has lost more than 60% of its value against ATH. They have waited almost 8 years to get their bitcoin back and they may be willing to wait a little longer to be able to sell bitcoins at the best price they expect.

[adaseb]

Yes I think it will have some affect on the bitcoin and crypto markets in general. I remember when certain companies were buying up peoples claims on their bitcoins back in 2015-2016 or so. However I am pretty sure it wasn't for $1200 per bitcoin they had missing I think it was more like $100-$200.

They started buying them when bitcoin was in the 3 figures and they didn't pay market value. I think it was maybe 50% of what it was worth. So if bitcoin was $1000, the max they offered was $500 or so. There is no way they would offer 100% because there is no risk/reward there.

These companies most likely have huge profits as a result and they will sell some of these coins to make their quarter results look good for investors. I think it will have a negative effect.

[stompix]

From the article:

Some of my advice for you now:

This is not a good time to buy BTC. The market is very sensitive and bad news is posted continuously. If you buy, you should only use a small amount.
Do not trade Future right now. The market is very unpredictable, the price can be scanned so that Kill Long Kill Short at any time, so you limit Future transactions at this time.
Hold Stablecoin. Your portfolio should hold Stablecoin as the main period. This helps you be more active when the market has good signs.

Ok, I understand the don't buy now thing, he thinks the market will crash, but then why not trade futures if you think this is how it's going to end? If you're unsure about the outcome then why clearly focus on one way the price going. The last one, hold stablecoin! Because yeah, holding some UST or holding some tether in time of a crash is the best idea, it worked marvelously in the past so it will do now too, especially since they now claim it's backed by some non-us bonds, and guess what, other cryptos.

Anyhow, I don't know where did he get the date of August as the start of payments:
https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20220706_announcement_en.pdf

In the letter, there is only one August mentioned, and it's not about the payments but something completely else

The Rehabilitation Trustee may, if necessary for the implementation of the Rehabilitation Plan and with the permission of the Court, set a period during which the assignment, transfer, succession, provision as collateral, or disposition by other means of rehabilitation claims are prohibited (the “Assignment, etc. Restriction Reference Period”).
Following discussions with the Court and in accordance with the Rehabilitation Plan, the Rehabilitation Trustee plans to set the Assignment, etc. Restriction Reference Period from approximately the end of August this year until all or part of the repayments made as initial repayments is completed for safe and secure Repayments.

[m2017]

~snip

Ok.
If the former users of Mt.Gox don't receive compensation in August, then this month there should not be strong fluctuations in bitcoin price. But someday they will still be sent bitcoins and something tells me that most of the Mt.Gox former users will easily sell their BTC. I think so, because quite a lot of time has passed and people are tired of waiting for their money back. Despite the current drop in the value of bitcoin, this still allows for a very good profit. Which in turn will encourage people to sell btc even now. 200.000BTC is unlikely to be sold at once, but most likely this is the fate that awaits most of this. Perhaps these sales will not affect the value of bitcoin much, but may serve as a trigger for panic selling of other investors. So, I assume that the compensation to the Mt.Gox users will negatively affect the situation on the cryptomarket in one way or another.
cитyaцию нa pынкe.

[coolcoinz]

I don't get what people spreading FUD in the bear market get out of it. You don't see it when we're hitting an ATH, but now so many journalists and influencers compete for the statue of the golden bear that it's painfully boring to watch. Watch out bitcoin could fall more because of:

war in Ukraine
rate hikes
Saylor will sell
miners will turn off their machines
gox money is coming
global recession
s&p 500 crash
bitcoin has to hit 10k because there's where I drew the line
Wolf of Wall Street said there will be a lower low

So remember guys, do as some wannabe analysts tell you and don't buy bitcoin! And if one day you wake up and see it up by 20%? Tough luck. In a few years there's going to be another crash and hopefully you'll be smarter.

[adaseb]

If this was a bull market it wouldn’t be so bad. However you need to realize that if the coins are at once sent to their owners and then many of those coins are going to hit exchanges then people will short Bitcoin along with those people who are going to sell those mtgox coins.

There will be little liquidity and it can get ugly. In a bear market everyone is scared to buy and most people only sell. The picked the worse time to release these coins.

[xSkylarx]

If this was a bull market it wouldn’t be so bad. However you need to realize that if the coins are at once sent to their owners and then many of those coins are going to hit exchanges then people will short Bitcoin along with those people who are going to sell those mtgox coins.

There will be little liquidity and it can get ugly. In a bear market everyone is scared to buy and most people only sell. The picked the worse time to release these coins.

August is also what we know as ghost month so I'm expecting a downside even without Mt. Gox scheduled release of bitcoin. Inflation rate also keeps rising which will cause more people to liquidate their holdings to keep up with the rising price of commodities. As long as the issues told by coolcoinz are not solved or have a solution, we should expect more dump coming until next year.

-snip

[abel1337]

I think it will affect bitcoin price in the time of release. I'm speculating that it will be affected short term but will bounce back to it's price. I can assume that there will be a sharp drop on price since there are many victims are now waiting for their coins to be released and sell into the market. I myself is waiting for the release and the sharp price drop since I'll be catching the bitcoin they are selling.

[NeuroticFish]

If the former users of Mt.Gox don't receive compensation in August, then this month there should not be strong fluctuations in bitcoin price. But someday they will still be sent bitcoins and something tells me that most of the Mt.Gox former users will easily sell their BTC.

So all this MtGox coins "drama" is somehow thrown out whenever somebody wants bitcoin traders be uneasy. It has happened before and it may happen in the future too.

The "when" matters a lot. As Franky said here, the chance is very high that it will take quite a long time until all the funds are sent out (from the moment they start sending). If 200k BTC is sold in a month or two that would be only some 3-7k BTC per day, which is not a big deal. Of course, it depends if this happens in a bull market or bear market.

While there's indeed a good chance many of those people will sell their coins (my take is 50% of the people though), I expect many are smart enough to wait for the price to recover and sell for much better price in a year or two. Since they've been waiting for so long, they may know already what patience is.

So I expect the sales will be actually scattered over many months (or years).

[rhomelmabini]

Probably. It may keep the volatility high during that day and depending on the movement of the market. The trend will still favors on the bear this time and I wouldn't be surprised if it will not hold even before the time of its released, I'm expecting news FUD before it even begins.

[UnDerDoG81]

I think not the MtGox coins directly but the whales love every tiny FUD to create panic. So the whales might start a sell off and make it look like the MtGox coins flooding the market.

[boltz]

It all depends on how markets will react after the release of those Bitcoins. It's been almost 7 years since MtGox went down and I do remember well that the price was down around 180$/btc in MtGox when people were trying to access it as the price indicator was still working. Why this matters ? Well ...MtGox had a big influence back to BTC price and some might want to speculate this release as well.