If Bitcoin soon returns to $25K - $30K

[dragonvslinux]

With Bitcoin's price currently in the middle of a trading range around $20K, as well as lack of clear direction as to whether price will rebound towards $30K or fall lower towards $10K, what do people think will happen if Bitcoin returns to the $25K - $30K trading range? With realized price as well as the 200WMA currently at $22K-$23K, it's likely breaking $25K would be confirmation of a local low (even if not necessarily the absolute bottom), but at the same time $30K acted as support for 18 months, suggesting it could now act as strong resistance. Therefore there could be a lot of indecision as well as volatility within this range it seems.

Current poll options are as follows, ideally explain your reasoning below:

• More buyers will step in: Price will go beyond $30K towards $40K or even $50K
• More sellers will appear: Price will get rejected and fall back down to $20K or lower
• Neither, it'll be balanced: Price will consolidate in this range before moving higher

Strange question I know, but currently it's clear most think the bottom isn't in and price will fall lower to $12K or $14K.

So now I'm curious to hear what people think will happen if the majority are wrong  

[NeuroticFish]

So now I'm curious to hear what people think will happen if the majority are wrong  

Your poll is missing the "I have no clue" option. That's why I expect most of the honest answers be, from people neither too optimistic, not too pessimistic. (Hence I cannot answer!)
Also, I find the questions a bit difficult, so I expect you don't get too many answers either.

[dragonvslinux]

So now I'm curious to hear what people think will happen if the majority are wrong  

Your poll is missing the "I have no clue" option. That's why I expect most of the honest answers be, from people neither too optimistic, not too pessimistic. (Hence I cannot answer!)

Good point, have included it. I don't think most will vote for this though, the sentiment remains very pessimistic at the moment it seems, so I imagine that'd still be the case if Bitcoin get's to $25K. On a side note this scenario would remind me of 2019 when Bitcoin pumped from $4K to $5K within a week; most people were still heavily pessimistic and therefore waiting for a pull-back to $4K levels that didn't immediately occur.

Not that I think the market conditions are the same as back then, as it was after months of consolidation at the lows as well as other factors, but just as a reference of how when Bitcoin breaks bear market trends or structures most people still don't trust the price movements. I think this is part of the early "disbelief" stage of bull market cycles, that of failing to have faith that a bottom has been formed.

Also, I find the questions a bit difficult, so I expect you don't get too many answers either.

True, not expecting lots of answers either. But still curious to hear what people think even if it is "no clue" or otherwise...

[NeuroticFish]

Good point, have included it.

Thank you. I've voted now.

I don't think most will vote for this though, the sentiment remains very pessimistic at the moment it seems, so I imagine that'd still be the case if Bitcoin get's to $25K. On a side note this scenario would remind me of 2019 when Bitcoin pumped from $4K to $5K within a week; most people were still heavily pessimistic and therefore waiting for a pull-back to $4K levels that never occurred.

Not that I think the market conditions are the same as back then, as it was after months of consolidation at the lows as well as other factors, but just as a reference of how when Bitcoin breaks bear market trends or structures most people still don't trust the price movements. I think this is part of the "disbelief" stage of bull market cycles, that of failing to have faith that a bottom has been formed.

It's hard to tell whether the bottom is in or not yet. Imho that can be known only after the bottom "region" is behind us.
Newcomers are always pessimistic in crypto winter. And I find that normal. I hope that this will be behind us before Christmas. If it won't, then you will see pessimism 

Also, I find the questions a bit difficult, so I expect you don't get too many answers either.

True, not expecting lots of answers either. But still curious to hear what people think even if it is "no clue" or otherwise...

Easier questions would have gotten you more answers. However, good luck!

[Lucius]

I know the question is hypothetical, but at the moment $25k or even $30k seems like something that has very little chance of happening, especially if we take into account the fact that the true extent of inflation in the northern hemisphere will be felt only after the summer is over. I don't see what could cause the price to rise in the midst of a bear market, but the increased need for cash in the following months may cause many to decide to sell at least part of their BTC.

It seems to me that we will stay between $19k and $22k for months because it seems that a balance has been created between sellers and buyers - serious buyers will still wait for some lower values, and sellers sell only what they have to. In the event of a sudden 20% pump, I think many would take advantage, especially those who bought at the lowest possible levels.

[YOSHIE]

So now I'm curious to hear what people think will happen if the majority are wrong  

Your topic reminds me of my friend, who was successful because of Bitcoin two years ago, he only knows crypto exchanges, but he doesn't know Forums, this is the story.

• My friend is a military employee in the government, after knowing about Bitcoin, he lent money in the bank $15k, the bank will cut his salary and my friend has no burden to cover the bank and the interest, at that time the first Bitcoin was in the $8000 position, he bought 1 Bitcoin, who knows it went down and up, in fact Bitcoin was getting lower to the $6000 level, all the rest of the money he borrowed was invested in Bitcoin, he got 2 more Bitcoins with the first one he bought.
From my friend's story, he only held -+ one year, Bitcoin continued to rise and rose to the level of $60k, felt he had a big profit he let go, finally now he has everything he wants because of Bitcoin.

Conclusion: from my friend's experience and this topic, for me there are currently two options.
1. Buy now at least 1 Bitcoin.
2. Wait for the next Bitcoin price.

I think such a method can be done at this time, if it goes down buy again, hold it, but if it goes up to $30k, it's up to sell or not sell, maybe you want to target up to $50k, who knows, everyone has their own understanding.

Basically my choice.

(No idea, see results)

[dragonvslinux]

Also, I find the questions a bit difficult, so I expect you don't get too many answers either.

True, not expecting lots of answers either. But still curious to hear what people think even if it is "no clue" or otherwise...

Easier questions would have gotten you more answers. However, good luck!

True story, I already have the answers from easy questions already though. Thanks anyway.

In the event of a sudden 20% pump, I think many would take advantage, especially those who bought at the lowest possible levels.

This I agree with, if there is a quick pump from here to $25K. I did however think this back in 2019 from $4K to $5K (+25%) within a week (or a single day if not mistaken), but after a few weeks it became pretty clear this wasn't going to happen as price consolidated. But this was after 3 months of consolidation, not just one month, without a bearish macro economic environment, so still inclined to agree to some degree. I think more likely would be a quick pump from $23K to $28K/$29K however, which would also be around +20 to +25%, simply because there is a big volume gap if price does soon leave the trading range to the upside.

Either way, kind of expecting a big move to play out once price leaves the trading range, whether that be to the upside or the downside, sustained or not, similar to what happened last month.

[wagmi]

My vote goes for "More buyers will step in" because right now, everyone is looking out for a bottom.

We know about Bitcoin's cycles.
When we reach a certain amount of $ per Bitcoin, people are getting FOMO and we can enter a new bull market.
But we need to reach a certain price above our current low for people to get enough trust.

[Wilhelm]

Financial institutions are roaring to get aboard

[Fivestar4everMVP]

One thing I do when the Bitcoin market slips into this indecision mode is to try not to get my hopes too high because anything can happen.
In as much as it is advisable to always stay positive, I try not to over do it in order to avoid being disappointed when things fail to turn out as I expect.
Bitcoin price right now is highly unpredictable, one can hardly tell whether it will go up or down, I am personally just watching the market and will buy in when I feel a sense of rally and sell when I feel it's about to go down.

[dragonvslinux]

Financial institutions are roaring to get aboard

This is kind of the irony I find though. Many institutions aren't able to invest in Bitcoin as a reverse asset when it's worth less than $1 trillion (too risky). When previously Bitcoin was worth more than $1T it was around $50K and generally considered either overbought or too risky. Maybe the fact that Bitcoin has already reached $1T and can no doubt do it again there will be buyers stepping in before then though, only time will tell.

Overall, an institutional buy level, well as main accumulation/distribution level (based on volume) does appear to be around $30K. For now I see this level very similarly to $6K to $8K back in 2018, as it's where the majority of volume lies in the past 18 months, as well as where institutions such as Tesla and Microstrategy (as well as others no doubt) invested for the long-term, and haven't yet sold most notably. Institutions also won't mind if it drops to $25K thereafter, if they are investing for the long-term that is. But regardless the derivatives market could have it's way if $30K is heavily shorted, that much is clear.

[wxa7115]

I voted for the option “More sellers will appear” at least to me it is difficult to see bitcoin going up to those levels so quickly as the economies of the world are not doing well at all and things will get even worse.

However assuming the scenario you are projecting happened those very same conditions will force the hands of most people and they will decide that such a range is good enough and they will sell their coins, then the whales will take advantage of it and create a lot of FUD and the price will get back to its current levels.

[Wilhelm]

Financial institutions are roaring to get aboard

This is kind of the irony I find though. Many institutions aren't able to invest in Bitcoin as a reverse asset when it's worth less than $1 trillion (too risky). When previously Bitcoin was worth more than $1T it was around $50K and generally considered either overbought or too risky. Maybe the fact that Bitcoin has already reached $1T and can no doubt do it again there will be buyers stepping in before then though, only time will tell.

Overall, an institutional buy level, well as main accumulation/distribution level (based on volume) does appear to be around $30K. For now I see this level very similarly to $6K to $8K back in 2018, as it's where the majority of volume lies in the past 18 months, as well as where institutions such as Tesla and Microstrategy (as well as others no doubt) invested for the long-term, and haven't yet sold most notably. Institutions also won't mind if it drops to $25K thereafter, if they are investing for the long-term that is. But regardless the derivatives market could have it's way if $30K is heavily shorted, that much is clear.

As Michael Saylor says a major problem is that financial institutions can't take custody of crypto because there is no certainty if they are commodities or securities. Once these ambiguities are resolved financial institutions can enter the space.

Currently the biggest holders are waiting for ETP approvals like ARK and Grayscale. Microstrategy to my knowledge is only holding it as an asset which binds their stock value to Bitcoin...

Since Europe and Canada already have approved ETPs it's only a matter of time for the US to build legislation and regulation to allow it...

I don't think the current marketcap has any real effect except for showing that Bitcoin is legit.

[Baofeng]

I voted for Neither, it'll be balanced. For me that is going to happen as we're definitely on the bear market although we have some sort of recovery around the mentioned price.

I also doubt that FOMO will set it to offset the sellers or more buyers will appear in the market. And with the global recession, perhaps investors are still reluctant not just in crypto market but in other traditional market as well.

[xSkylarx]

We are in a bear market right now so if price reaches that in the coming weeks I expect to have more selling pressure. It's too early to say that bull run will begin again because of the threat of recession and inflation rate keeps rising so more people would liquidate their assets to survive in the economic crisis that many countries are currently experiencing. If price reaches those soon, it could be a good time to take profit or cutloss and wait for the market to dump again.

[Poker Player]

• More buyers will step in: Price will go beyond $30K towards $40K or even $50K
• More sellers will appear: Price will get rejected and fall back down to $20K or lower
• Neither, it'll be balanced: Price will consolidate in this range before moving higher
• Both, buyers then sellers: Price will go beyond $30K then fall below $25K again
• Both, sellers then buyers: Price will initially get rejected but then return to this range

I think the thing is not as simple as that, like if it hits x price that will make buyers or sellers do such and such. There are many other things that can influence the price. For example: is the FED going to raise interest rates by 1 point at the next meeting? Is the war going to end soon or will it last much longer? Are we going to have another exchange going bankrupt soon?

I know the question is hypothetical, but at the moment $25k or even $30k seems like something that has very little chance of happening, especially if we take into account the fact that the true extent of inflation in the northern hemisphere will be felt only after the summer is over. I don't see what could cause the price to rise in the midst of a bear market, but the increased need for cash in the following months may cause many to decide to sell at least part of their BTC.

It seems to me that we will stay between $19k and $22k for months because it seems that a balance has been created between sellers and buyers - serious buyers will still wait for some lower values, and sellers sell only what they have to. In the event of a sudden 20% pump, I think many would take advantage, especially those who bought at the lowest possible levels.

I think similarly to you but I think the range between $19k and $22k is very narrow. I do think we can move into the $17k to $30k range in the next two to 3 months. You have to think that even though the price is sideways lately, it can go up or down fast.

[BobK71]

The economic situation of the present world is very bad, especially the war between Ukraine and Russia is responsible for the poor condition of the world economy. At the moment, inflation has created a messy environment with everything rising in price. Moreover, since crypto is bearish, all things considered, the market can take a long time. It is difficult to predict when crypto momentum will go in which direction. It can move positively anytime in the current market trend.

[Husires]

What I can say is that we will be at these levels at least for the next month, and if there is a rise, it will be followed by a final correction in the price which will be at levels below 28k because it is rare for Bitcoin to break two resistance levels without a unique or influential news.

How countries deal with inflation and stagnation is what will determine the short-term trend, so all options will be open based on the decisions of central banks for Q4 of this year.

(Personal wish) I hope we to see $32,000 level in less than 3 months

[dragonvslinux]

• More buyers will step in: Price will go beyond $30K towards $40K or even $50K
• More sellers will appear: Price will get rejected and fall back down to $20K or lower
• Neither, it'll be balanced: Price will consolidate in this range before moving higher
• Both, buyers then sellers: Price will go beyond $30K then fall below $25K again
• Both, sellers then buyers: Price will initially get rejected but then return to this range

I think the thing is not as simple as that, like if it hits x price that will make buyers or sellers do such and such. There are many other things that can influence the price. For example: is the FED going to raise interest rates by 1 point at the next meeting? Is the war going to end soon or will it last much longer? Are we going to have another exchange going bankrupt soon?

Indeed I'm not denying that other macro factors can or will be more influential to price movements than price itself. I guess the poll is based on the current economic situation, which is of course ever changing. I think your questions would make a good poll in itself, as to what might most affect price in the near future, or why price might fall much lower, or whether these events will occur.

That said, since the "bearish news" of CPI numbers, Bitcoin has rallied 10%. So clearly these macro-economic factors don't always immediately influence price in the way many suspect it will. As I've said before, the bearish economic climate will negatively affect price until it no longer does. There will eventually be a decoupling to traditional markets as there always has been imo.

It seems to me that we will stay between $19k and $22k for months because it seems that a balance has been created between sellers and buyers - serious buyers will still wait for some lower values, and sellers sell only what they have to. In the event of a sudden 20% pump, I think many would take advantage, especially those who bought at the lowest possible levels.

I think similarly to you but I think the range between $19k and $22k is very narrow. I do think we can move into the $17k to $30k range in the next two to 3 months. You have to think that even though the price is sideways lately, it can go up or down fast.

I also think the current trading range is too narrow. Whether that means price drops to $10K and consolidates between $10K and $20K for months to come, or whether the trading range is expanded to $20K to $30K is another story. Either way, the longer price remains within this relatively tight range (tight for Bitcoin at least), the more volatile the break-out will be to a new trading range imo.

[Lucius]

Either way, kind of expecting a big move to play out once price leaves the trading range, whether that be to the upside or the downside, sustained or not, similar to what happened last month.

I am of the opinion that nothing important will happen at least until the beginning of Q4, and I also do not hope that any new big investors will appear, given that the time of cheap money is behind us and that everyone is starting to tighten their belts in view of all the apocalyptic announcements about to what awaits us next winter and after that.

I think similarly to you but I think the range between $19k and $22k is very narrow. I do think we can move into the $17k to $30k range in the next two to 3 months. You have to think that even though the price is sideways lately, it can go up or down fast.

Be prepared for anything when it comes to Bitcoin, and whatever happens can't surprise me personally. In the past, good news has raised the price overnight by 20% or more without any problems, but bad news also resulted in even a 50% crash. It's true that the range I'm talking about is very narrow, but remember how long we were between $28k and $32k before crashing below $20k.

I appreciate people who still have more knowledge in the area of TA and their analysis, but it seems to me that we are still too deep in the bear market to be able to expect positive changes in the price in terms of returning to the values of a few months ago.