Two years and now we are back, but with a different market, it's bullish now.
The question now, in 2024 is different than in 2022
For sure, 2022 was a bear year. For me, 2024 is supposed to be a consolidation year (from the 2022 bear and 2023 recovery).
The fact we've massively overshot the recovery to new ATH doesn't change much for me.
Maybe you meant 2020 as the comparison...
Is the market reached to its Top yet?
Too early to tell, price could easily find support around $60K and return to new ATH. It all depends on ETF inflows at this point, more than anything. Technical analysis will confirm either way, but it will likely be a lagging indicator to some degree. Namely, whether ETF inflows will outpace outflows, regarding
GBTC selling. This wasn't the case in the correction from $48K when we saw more outflows, but with ETFs so fresh, it wasn't possible to make much of an assessment. Now we see another outflow day (though not major outflows compared to the major inflows we have seen), I suspect the inflows will be higher when trending up, and the outflows will be higher when trending down, at least until GBTC is flushed out the system. This would also be pretty usual for ETF activity of buying strength as opposed to weakness. There otherwise isn't a lot of GBTC left, but there is a enough that needs to be shifted. This backlog needs to be cleared out imo for a healthy uptrend, even if that only takes another month or two based on current holding and outflows.
The Pi Cycle Top is the most popular Bitcoin cycle top calling indicator that exists.
And for good reason, it was 1 day off from the top in April 2021 and between 1 and 3 days for every top before it.
But before that cross can happen, price needs to stay above the 350 DMA*2 priced at $70,400 and increasing.
It has been stiff resistance in every cycle.
The first touch of the Moving Average in a cycle has typically been the mid-top (purple arrows), but with price making new ATHs, this seems to be a late-stage retest.
Late-stage retests are much quicker and come before the true cycle top parabola.
This cycle still has plenty of room for growth!
If you want to look for more details, zoom in and zoom out, you can have a live chart with Lookintobitcoin.com.
What do you think?
That's an interesting chart not gonna lie. I had never considered these "mid-cycle" top signals, such as 2012, 2016 and 2019.
However there's something notably wrong about the analysis painted over this. It's assuming the first test of the 350 DMA*2 is the late stage top, as opposed to the mid-stage, as per every cycle. While it could be, we have never had a late stage top (ie, beginning of bull market) without a mid-stage. Secondly, just because the mid-stage came in 2019 last cycle, it has also previously been in 2012 and 2016, based on the 4 year cycle, it stands to reason that this is the mid-stage top. Note how the late stage top came late 2020 and early 2013 & 2017, as opposed to early 2020. So we're about 10 months off for this imo. Hence we've never seen the late stage top leading to a bull market pre-halving, so there is that as well, for those who still consider the 4 year cycle in tact despite the new ATH (a view I still subscribe to at least based on time).
I've otherwise been expecting a mid-stage top with a significant correction of around -50%, taking 3-9 months, since $48K (0.618 fib retracement level), even if price reached $80K etc. In hindsight, this chart would of been useful to see where a mid-stage top would more likely be. Interestingly, top cycle top indicator was the only reliable one in late 2021, compared to all the rest that pointed to further upside, so it shouldn't be ignored as random or otherwise. Either way, I'd say the chart is accurate in the sense that this is either the start of the bull market, or we're looking at a mid-stage considerable correction (in time and price).
But before that cross can happen, price needs to stay above the 350 DMA*2 priced at $70,400 and increasing.
This sums it up nicely. It lacks confirmation it's a late-stage top, at the moment it's speculative. I'm not sure what the confirmation of a mid-stage top would be, but personally it'd be breaking the current "immediate term" uptrend, proabably around $60K higher low, then we can see how strong the support is around $40K to $45K. Most people seem certain that we will never see $50K again which is worrying. Personally I think there is a reasonable chance, especially if this week confirms a new ATH fake-out similar to 2021 and $60K foesn't hold as support, as there's very weak volume support in between, ETFs aside.
Will consider making a poll/topic when/if we reach $60K to see if the sentiment is returning to new ATH or $50K. I suspect most people won't believe a correction is happening until it's already happened.
