Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion

[darewaller]

Renewable energy sources for production needs are complete crap. Europe is France and Germany, whose economy allows the European Union to exist. They need cheap resources for this, and now there is nowhere to get it from. The economic downturn in Europe will be much stronger than in Russia.

Renewable energy sources are not a crap solution, right now it could be looking like it's crap and not enough but with enough investment it would be done and it would be much better. Which one would you prefer to rely on, the oil you get from dead dinosaurs for a while longer, or a limitless energy sources that will die in 4 billion years called the Sun? I would prefer the Sun really.

And maybe it is not enough today, but I guarantee you that it will be enough in the long term because tech is ever improving and we will have a much better one eventually, the price would drop and improvements and new features would make it a viable source of energy to whole Europe.

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[coolcoinz]

While I agree that the sanctions haven't hit Russia as much as was anticipated and some pretty smart financial policies helped the fiat currency stabilize, I also have a couple of questions. First is that the Bloomberg article is based on the Bank of Russia publication. If Russians lied they wouldn't invade, lied that they didn't torture civilians in Bucha, and that they didn't bomb Mariupol, then HOW do we know that they're not lying right now with this report? What's stopping Russian bank from simply writing up pretty numbers to show they're doing great while the reality is far from great?
Then look at things like food prices which, according to Russian sources, are roughly a quarter more than a year ago (but some estimates say even higher than that), and car prices are also up by 23% since the start of the full-scale war. I'd take these pretty numbers on a Russian website with a huge grain of salt, but also agree that much more must be done to prevent Russia from comfortably financing its current war.

That's what they're doing, you're right. I suspect the estimation is based on the current exchange rate of usd to ruble in Russia. We all know that this exchange was artificially inflated by Russia spending some of their gold to pump up ruble prices and demanding countries to pay for international trade in rubles. Some countries like Bulgaria, Finland and Poland refused to pay, but there are some who did, mainly Germany - a country that is making a fool of itself in the EU. First they blocked aid coming to Ukraine from the UK, refusing to let it pass through, then, when Ukraine requested military help, Germany said it cannot spare any vehicles because they're all being used, then we heard they're paying Russia despite sanctions... I say fuck Germany, the supposed leader of the EU, who goes against its own vote and openly supports the aggressor, that the whole Europe condemns. The world should learn from this conflict and see which countries are really on which side of this conflict.
France isn't much better as it delivered military equipment to Russia during the conflict, despite sanctions, and of course agreed to use the ruble.

[Sithara007]

~~~
What a surprise, everything about their might military was a lie, but you still believe things about their might economy..
Cause, it makes sense!

Russia is still one of the military superpowers in the world, despite the fact that they spend a fraction of what the United States and China spend on defense. I agree that they have fallen behind in some of the sectors, but Russia continues to be among world's top exporters of weapons. Now coming to the economy, I am yet to see any meltdown or destruction of the national currency, as predicted by the Western media six months ago. That may happen in the near future, but so far their economy has been resilient against the sanctions and embargoes. 

[be.open]

I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine,

I'm not a military analyst but I don't think Russia wanted to use its planes because losing a pilot is too expensive a loss to risk it. Any other asset (except maybe big warships) could be replaced (ground troops, tanks, radars/SAMs and their operators) but a pilot can not be easily replaced.
This is why I've always said the future wars is fought with drones not people.

It is true that modern military planes are terribly expensive, and pilot training is demanding, expensive and time-consuming, but the fact is that you cannot skimp on such things if you want to achieve superiority in the air. The fact is that Ukraine has very successfully defended its airspace since the beginning of the invasion, and today it is doing it even better and more efficiently. Drones are of course something that is being used more and more, but military planes are still something that every sovereign country that cares about its security wants to have.

Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities.

The entire territory of Ukraine is completely shot through by Russian land, air and sea-based missiles, and the missile defense of Ukraine cannot do anything about it - this is a fact.

The Russian Aerospace Forces are in good technical shape and excellent combat tone. Front-line aviation performs combat missions every day, mainly at ultra-low altitudes beyond the reach of radars and brings terror to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The superstar of this operation is the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.

And maybe it is not enough today, but I guarantee you that it will be enough in the long term because tech is ever improving and we will have a much better one eventually, the price would drop and improvements and new features would make it a viable source of energy to whole Europe.

At the moment, your guarantees are invalid. The green agenda has beautiful pictures on presentations, but right now it does not stand the test of practice. The wind blows unevenly, sometimes it is calm or the wind is too strong for a windmill, the same thing happens with solar panels. Controlled thermonuclear fusion would be a good solution, but its implementation is still in question and the timing is constantly shifting. In general, the world cannot do without the burning of hydrocarbons, even if everyone unanimously switches from gasoline cars to electric cars. To "green" Europe will have to abandon the industry.

[Lucius]

The entire territory of Ukraine is completely shot through by Russian land, air and sea-based missiles, and the missile defense of Ukraine cannot do anything about it - this is a fact.

Of course you use your technical superiority to shoot like real cowards from afar and kill children in schools and people in shopping centers, but in close battles Ukrainians teach you lessons about what it means to be a true patriot. When Ukrainians target legitimate military targets anywhere in the occupied territory, you call them terrorists...

The Russian Aerospace Forces are in good technical shape and excellent combat tone. Front-line aviation performs combat missions every day, mainly at ultra-low altitudes beyond the reach of radars and brings terror to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We saw this a few days ago, when the Ukrainians prepared summer fireworks for you in Crimea, even 300 kilometers from the front line - the superior planes of the fifth and sixth generation did not even manage to take off - a great success of the Russian military aviation. Money and military supremacy are not always decisive in war, and your Serbian brothers can confirm that because they are still whining about the defeat they experienced more than 30 years ago.

The superstar of this operation is the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.

You mean these superior helicopters that the Ukrainians destroy without any problems?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMX9cEf8qVg

[be.open]

The entire territory of Ukraine is completely shot through by Russian land, air and sea-based missiles, and the missile defense of Ukraine cannot do anything about it - this is a fact.

Of course you use your technical superiority to shoot like real cowards from afar and kill children in schools and people in shopping centers, but in close battles Ukrainians teach you lessons about what it means to be a true patriot. When Ukrainians target legitimate military targets anywhere in the occupied territory, you call them terrorists...

The Russian Aerospace Forces are in good technical shape and excellent combat tone. Front-line aviation performs combat missions every day, mainly at ultra-low altitudes beyond the reach of radars and brings terror to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We saw this a few days ago, when the Ukrainians prepared summer fireworks for you in Crimea, even 300 kilometers from the front line - the superior planes of the fifth and sixth generation did not even manage to take off - a great success of the Russian military aviation. Money and military supremacy are not always decisive in war, and your Serbian brothers can confirm that because they are still whining about the defeat they experienced more than 30 years ago.

The superstar of this operation is the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.

You mean these superior helicopters that the Ukrainians destroy without any problems?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMX9cEf8qVg

Reminiscent of arguments about the weakness of the Russian Black Sea Fleet due to the loss of the flagship. The local tactical successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine set off in contrast the strategic fiasco of Ukraine, which has almost completely lost its fleet and air force.

[stompix]

Now coming to the economy, I am yet to see any meltdown or destruction of the national currency, as predicted by the Western media six months ago. That may happen in the near future, but so far their economy has been resilient against the sanctions and embargoes.  

You're yet to see?
You proclaimed in April that in one month Ukraine will lose half of its territory and now you fail to see this?

Their GDP dropped 4%, this with months of companies still working there for a while, with the ones retreating still paying their employees 3-6-12 wages for being let off, with most having paid rents and suppliers one year in advance, with people still having a few pennies left aside and DESPITE your claims of billions entering the economy it has still shrunk 4% with 4.9% in the last month!
And you don't see the meltdown happening?
Oil is on average 10% lower in the last 30 days than when the conflict started, Russia is selling less and for less than that, you keep mentioning gas prices at the TTF but you don't understand Gazprom is not selling gas there, those are future settlements but probably I will waste my time explaining the difference.

Your bias knows no margin, you're bragging about how Russia is exporting this and that to China and India but I haven't seen you mention this one a single time:
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/russia-defaults-on-lng-supplies-to-india/article65657494.ece
Europe will freeze to death but till then seems like we can buy what others can't afford:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-petronet-delays-plan-1mtp-lng-deal-amid-high-prices-2022-08-05/

Those are things none should speak of, right, because it breaks your narrative!! Because you don't want to see the reality? Well, good luck then, there is no meltdown in the Russian economy, Russia hasn't defaulted twice in history, the USSR has not collapsed and there was no meltdown at Chornobyl either! Oh, and India has conquered Great Britain there times also! Sorry, I forgot this! Just as how Iran once ruled all of Mars!

The Russian Aerospace Forces are in good technical shape and excellent combat tone. Front-line aviation performs combat missions every day, mainly at ultra-low altitudes beyond the reach of radars and brings terror to the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The superstar of this operation is the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter.

You might want to google "saki airbase" and visit this. Your superstars have hit rock bottom faster than Lindsay Lohan!

[mindrust]

Renewable energy sources for production needs are complete crap. Europe is France and Germany, whose economy allows the European Union to exist. They need cheap resources for this, and now there is nowhere to get it from. The economic downturn in Europe will be much stronger than in Russia.

Renewable energy sources are not a crap solution, right now it could be looking like it's crap and not enough but with enough investment it would be done and it would be much better. Which one would you prefer to rely on, the oil you get from dead dinosaurs for a while longer, or a limitless energy sources that will die in 4 billion years called the Sun? I would prefer the Sun really.

And maybe it is not enough today, but I guarantee you that it will be enough in the long term because tech is ever improving and we will have a much better one eventually, the price would drop and improvements and new features would make it a viable source of energy to whole Europe.

Wind turbines and solar panels need maintenance, they are not build and forget. Sometimes they fail.

To make it "work", you'll have to plant tens of thousands of (possibly millions?) solar panels and wind turbines. Who the fuck is going to do the maintenance of these? Who is going to track down the faulty ones? Are you going to find and replace them with the good ones, fix them or just leave them dead where they died?

Over the years, you'll have to build new farms instead of fixing the faulty ones till you run out of land and you'll run out of land.

[Lucius]

You might want to google "saki airbase" and visit this. Your superstars have hit rock bottom faster than Lindsay Lohan!

What is all the data worth when the average Russian believes that it is all just Western propaganda and that the Russians, like in 1945, are liberating Europe from nazism and fascism... I understand that in every war there are those who fight for money and spoils of war, but that so much death and destruction has not yet opened the eyes of the average Russian to understand that wars of conquest in the 21st century are not something they should agree to.

First, young naive people die, and then their fathers come next - and right now, people aged 55+ are being mobilized. The fact is that 80% of them will never return to their homes. They say they're called tigers, but to me they look like old and battered cats (cannon fodder).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggcNHGcypns

[Sithara007]

You're yet to see?
You proclaimed in April that in one month Ukraine will lose half of its territory and now you fail to see this?

Although Ukraine didn't lost half of it's territory, it is a fact that it lost 20% of the territory that remained after the annexation of Crimea. Not too bad, IMO.

Their GDP dropped 4%, this with months of companies still working there for a while, with the ones retreating still paying their employees 3-6-12 wages for being let off, with most having paid rents and suppliers one year in advance, with people still having a few pennies left aside and DESPITE your claims of billions entering the economy it has still shrunk 4% with 4.9% in the last month!
And you don't see the meltdown happening?

Indian GDP went down by -7.3% during 2020-21. The 4% reduction in Russian GDP is not surprising. And given the massive amount of sanctions and embargoes (Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world), I expected much worse.

Oil is on average 10% lower in the last 30 days than when the conflict started, Russia is selling less and for less than that, you keep mentioning gas prices at the TTF but you don't understand Gazprom is not selling gas there, those are future settlements but probably I will waste my time explaining the difference.

Oil prices are down by 20%, because the Americans are emptying the SPR before November midterms. It has nothing to do with Russia. Russia had to reduce exports to India and China in July because of increased demand for crude oil from Europe. 

Your bias knows no margin, you're bragging about how Russia is exporting this and that to China and India but I haven't seen you mention this one a single time:
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/russia-defaults-on-lng-supplies-to-india/article65657494.ece

LOL.. seriously? Gas prices are so high in the Europe that Gazprom Germania diverted some of the supplies earmarked for India (GAIL) to Europe. Even after paying the penalty to India under the "take or pay (TOP)" terms, selling LNG to Europe was more profitable for Russia. This is actually what happened.

https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/india-in-a-fix-as-russia-dithers-on-oil-lng

[Ozero]

Financial affairs in Russia are not so good. Indeed, due to higher energy prices, the fall of the Russian economy in 2022 has undergone an adjustment from 10–30% to 6–9.5%. And the level of annual inflation decreased from the projected 20% to 12-15%.

However, the sanctions have already affected the domestic economy. The reduction in the production of Russian cars in June was 62% compared to this month last year. Industrial production in June fell by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2021. The main sanctions against the Russian energy sector have not yet entered into force. December 5 will earn sanctions on the export of Russian offshore oil to the European Union. February 5, 2023 - Russian oil products.

The volume of sales of Russian gas to Europe is now a third of last year's level. It looks like it will decline from now on, and will practically stop no later than 2024. Then Germany expects to be completely independent of Russian gas. After the entry into force of all European sanctions in the oil and gas sector, Russia's income from energy exports is expected to decrease by 40%.

Russia is reducing gas supplies to the countries of the European Union, therefore losing its main sales market. After the end of the war with Ukraine, economic ties with the Russian Federation will not resume for a long time, and therefore the impact of sanctions will continue to operate for some time even after they are lifted.

[be.open]

Financial affairs in Russia are not so good. Indeed, due to higher energy prices, the fall of the Russian economy in 2022 has undergone an adjustment from 10–30% to 6–9.5%. And the level of annual inflation decreased from the projected 20% to 12-15%.

However, the sanctions have already affected the domestic economy. The reduction in the production of Russian cars in June was 62% compared to this month last year. Industrial production in June fell by 1.8% compared to the same period in 2021. The main sanctions against the Russian energy sector have not yet entered into force. December 5 will earn sanctions on the export of Russian offshore oil to the European Union. February 5, 2023 - Russian oil products.

The volume of sales of Russian gas to Europe is now a third of last year's level. It looks like it will decline from now on, and will practically stop no later than 2024. Then Germany expects to be completely independent of Russian gas. After the entry into force of all European sanctions in the oil and gas sector, Russia's income from energy exports is expected to decrease by 40%.

Russia is reducing gas supplies to the countries of the European Union, therefore losing its main sales market. After the end of the war with Ukraine, economic ties with the Russian Federation will not resume for a long time, and therefore the impact of sanctions will continue to operate for some time even after they are lifted.

Russia survived the initial sanctions shock quite easily, much easier than Western analysts expected. And for several months now it has been living in conditions of deflation against the backdrop of a consistent reduction in the key rate by the Central Bank of Russia. This is the difference and the key advantage of Russia in its economic confrontation with the European Union, which is forced to live in conditions of inflation and rising prices, against the backdrop of a growing key rate.

You cite the decline in car production in Russia as an argument, but there is a nuance. Several European manufacturers immediately stopped their factories in Russia due to sanctions and a special operation, but who really suffers from this - Russia or European automakers?  

[FanEagle]

That's what they are going to face real soon. The idea that they could get away with literally a war, seems like a pipe dream that Russia lovers could only imagine. Of course, they will fail to sell anything but what other nations absolutely need, which is gas and oil, outside of that they won't be able to sell anything. On top of that, we are talking about them not being able to afford anything from west soon and that will hurt their finances as well.

This all comes down to the fact that Russia will have a big trouble. It's of course looked better for a short term because they brought in so much money, but that was a short period due to sanctions, it's not sustainable.

[virasisog]

~~~
What a surprise, everything about their might military was a lie, but you still believe things about their might economy..
Cause, it makes sense!

Russia is still one of the military superpowers in the world, despite the fact that they spend a fraction of what the United States and China spend on defense. I agree that they have fallen behind in some of the sectors, but Russia continues to be among world's top exporters of weapons. Now coming to the economy, I am yet to see any meltdown or destruction of the national currency, as predicted by the Western media six months ago. That may happen in the near future, but so far their economy has been resilient against the sanctions and embargoes. 

Russia won't fall down that easy. It seems that they're too ready for this war and their economy is still surviving despite the sanctions. But the question is, how long could they handle the sanctions? I'm sure that it would still hit their economy in the future. The sanctions will test the foundation of their economy but for now, they could still bear it.

[el kaka22]

Everyone considers what Russia could give to the world, and nobody asks what could world give to Russia. What you are forgetting is that while they may have some things that the world wants, we shouldn't forget that there are a lot of things that the world can provide which Russia wants. Even something as simple as a facebook ad goes from a Russians pocket to Mark Zuckerberg’s pocket with that logic.

This is why it is quite important that if the world finds a way to not use oil or gas or wheat from Russia, and yet in the future Russians still use products from other nations, the money that they have right now would go down more and more and more, which will put them in trouble.

[be.open]

Everyone considers what Russia could give to the world, and nobody asks what could world give to Russia. What you are forgetting is that while they may have some things that the world wants, we shouldn't forget that there are a lot of things that the world can provide which Russia wants. Even something as simple as a facebook ad goes from a Russians pocket to Mark Zuckerberg’s pocket with that logic.

This is why it is quite important that if the world finds a way to not use oil or gas or wheat from Russia, and yet in the future Russians still use products from other nations, the money that they have right now would go down more and more and more, which will put them in trouble.

Facebook is banned in Russia, and the Meta company is recognized as extremist, so Mark Zuckerberg does not earn money in Russia.

This is the main reason for the failure of sanctions against Russia - it seems that in the West no one really knows what modern Russia is and are based on the old stereotypes of the era of Gorbachev and Yeltsin. They tried to sort of shake up the topic of "oil in exchange for food", but it suddenly turned out that Russia also has plenty of food.

[stompix]

Although Ukraine didn't lost half of it's territory, it is a fact that it lost 20% of the territory that remained after the annexation of Crimea. Not too bad, IMO.

It's 20% with that territory of Donbas and Crimea, quite a funny since your marvelous prediction Russia has lost more land that it has conquered in Ukraine.

Indian GDP went down by -7.3% during 2020-21. The 4% reduction in Russian GDP is not surprising. And given the massive amount of sanctions and embargoes (Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world), I expected much worse.

So you admit yourself that even if the country is completely shut down the GDP doesn't go to zero, and we have Russia's economy going down 5% last most, that would be like 2/3 of it being shut down, not bad. /s
Should I mention that despite all that catastrophic meltdown somehow EU's economy has grown 0.9%.

LOL.. seriously? Gas prices are so high in the Europe that Gazprom Germania diverted some of the supplies earmarked for India (GAIL) to Europe. Even after paying the penalty to India under the "take or pay (TOP)" terms, selling LNG to Europe was more profitable for Russia. This is actually what happened.

I love your laugh, obviously, it's the laugh of somebody who is on the brink of going insane, you mean that Russia is not selling LNG to India because Europe pays more even with a third party?
So the outcome for India is that they don't have gas, they don't have money to buy it, and Europe will collapse?
How many times have I told you that the one with the money dictates everything?
How many times does it take to finally get it?

Oil prices are down by 20%, because the Americans are emptying the SPR before November midterms. It has nothing to do with Russia. Russia had to reduce exports to India and China in July because of increased demand for crude oil from Europe. 

You see kiddo, this is your problem, you try to find the things you want in a problem, like in this case you want this , weakness of your adversary to be the cause of the fall in price, you're not looking for the actual thing.
And it's not the "emptying" of the SPR as they only release 1 million barrels a day, and they still have 523 million only in the SPR not counting commercial reserves which the US can buy and dump, and those are, prepare for a heart attack another 400 million barrels.
So all of it will be emptied in about 3 years!

But the problem is that is not that which is driving the price of oil down but the lack of consumption, it's full US and EU driving season and the consumption is 1 million barrels below target for the US alone, at the end of the month this will come down again by at least 20%.
That's why oil is at 88$ as we speak, or 69.48 for Russian oil. 

Russia won't fall down that easy. It seems that they're too ready for this war and their economy is still surviving despite the sanctions. But the question is, how long could they handle the sanctions?

(Collapse of the USSR - Invasion of Afghanistan) / 3  since Russia is half of the USSR and its economy globally is 1/4 of what it was

Everyone considers what Russia could give to the world, and nobody asks what could world give to Russia.

Vodka as they don't need anything else.
And btw, yeah, Russia imported both vodka and caviar, vodka from Sweden and Poland, and Caviar from Italy and China!

[Fortify]

It seems, despite the image that some media may give us, that Russia is not doing badly financially.

Russia’s current-account surplus more than tripled from last year after notching record levels since the invasion of Ukraine, as declines in imports combined with booming revenues from energy and commodity sales abroad.

The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment flows, widened to almost $167 billion in January-July, compared with just over $50 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Bank of Russia said in a preliminary estimate published on Tuesday.

The proceeds have become a critical source of hard currency for the Kremlin since the invasion in February. A collapse in imports, driven in part by international sanctions over the war, has contributed to the surplus. It reached a preliminary $138.5 billion for the first six months of 2022.

When you consider how pathetic it is that sanctions have been imposed on Russia by the European Union, have resulted in things like this:

It is not surprising to read that Russia is profiting from this situation.

I love how angry you get at the supposed "pathetic sanctions" because it just shows they are working exactly as intended. No civilized countries want to do business with Russia any more, which is where the most creative minds are producing useful goods and services. It was inevitable to see a spike in oil and gas prices, which is Russia's primary remaining export, because of the impact of the war which Russia started against Ukraine. However that is just a short to medium term issue, as the whole world is now creeping towards recession, although Russia's will be much more painful to endure, because of the inflation this disastrous and pointless war has created.

[pooya87]

No civilized countries want to do business with Russia any more

The naivety and hypocrisy in this statement is phenomenal.

For starters, what you call "civilized countries" have committed worse crimes than Russia over the past century and a lot more of it too. Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending Russia, just pointing out your naive way of thinking. If any country cut its ties with Russia it wasn't because they were "civilized" it was only because either they had some benefit in it or they had no other choice.

Secondly, what you call "civilized countries" have been the only reason why Russian currency has been soaring against every other currency and has reached its all time high exchange rate in the past 5 years. In other words not only they are still doing business with Russia, they are doing it in Ruble to strengthen it!

[Sithara007]

I love how angry you get at the supposed "pathetic sanctions" because it just shows they are working exactly as intended. No civilized countries want to do business with Russia any more, which is where the most creative minds are producing useful goods and services. It was inevitable to see a spike in oil and gas prices, which is Russia's primary remaining export, because of the impact of the war which Russia started against Ukraine. However that is just a short to medium term issue, as the whole world is now creeping towards recession, although Russia's will be much more painful to endure, because of the inflation this disastrous and pointless war has created.

So according to your definition, only 15% of the world population is civilized and the other 85% is uncivilized? Two of the most popular nations, China and India have refused to approve sanctions against Russia. The same can be said about every other non-Western nation, including Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, GCC group, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and Nigeria. The problem with Western governments and most of their citizens is that they still believe that the world revolves around them. This is not the 19th century. Third world nations are fully capable of making their own decisions. We don't need any advice from you guys. Thanks.