Mt Gox Upcoming release of funds to its creditors vs Btc Price

[irfan_pak10]

These days news about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors is spreading on Twitter and seems very alarming to the BTC price action in coming days, as BTC price has not yet gained any momentum towards 28k which most of the so-called technical analysts predicted. I think we are most likely to hit <15k BTC in the coming days due to the release of almost 140k BTC from Mt gox.

If you search for the #mtgox at Twitter you will see how tense is the situation: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mtgox&src=typed_query

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

[Yogee]

.... Do you think they are going to hold it ?

They were able to live and wait for years so I won't be surprised if they hold on to it until the next run or longer to maximize their returns.

It's up to them at the end of the day so just be prepared to sell or convert to stable coin if you're too worried about what they will do.

[noormcs5]

.... Do you think they are going to hold it ?

They were able to live and wait for years so I won't be surprised if they hold on to it until the next run or longer to maximize their returns.

It's up to them at the end of the day so just be prepared to sell or convert to stable coin if you're too worried about what they will do.

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them. When Mt gox was hacked, the price of bitcoin was nothing as compared to now. These people are lucky to get that money back and they will dump it right away as first of all it is free money for them and secondly, they have waited enough. 

[NotATether]

I'm predicting a mega-dump, almost closing in on $18K as did last dip. But once again, BTC's going to recover from that a week or two later, and will eventually reach these current prices after about a month.

Why? Because Gox crashed sometime in 2014. 8 years later, and I doubt that all those creditors still want to hold BTC, so many will probably liquidate them.

[buwaytress]

I'm about up to nothing these days with Mt Gox news. It just seems to keep seeming it's around the corner, only to be delayed to some other date. If ever there were expected impact, it'd have to be priced in a long time ago, so nope, zero effect beyond the few minutes it tends to stir a couple of trader hornets. Don't hold your breath.

[JohnBitCo]

I'm about up to nothing these days with Mt Gox news. It just seems to keep seeming it's around the corner, only to be delayed to some other date. If ever there were expected impact, it'd have to be priced in a long time ago, so nope, zero effect beyond the few minutes it tends to stir a couple of trader hornets. Don't hold your breath.

Don't expect this to be delayed forever. One day, people will gonna get their funds back and they gonna dump it through the market order.

Why not let it happen today and the fear of mt gox dump is over forever?

[Anonylz]

Victims of Mt Gox have been waiting for years for this moment and since the price of btc back then is not what it is now it is very likely some will want to dump as soon as they receive their funds. After such awful experience no one will blame them for selling and fleeing, so most likely there will be pressure on price if more than half of the victims have this opinion but on the other hand, it is possible some will decide to hold base on the fact that their assets has appreciated since the mt gox incident happens.
If it was me i won't be selling knowing what the future holds for btc but different strokes for different folks.

[yhiaali3]

I expect that it is possible that a large part of them will hold the amount of bitcoin that they will receive, they must see the current market improvement with expectations to continue to rise so it is likely that they will wait for more time to increase their profits after losing their money all these years, frankly they cannot be blamed Even if they sold it immediately and caused the market to fall because they lost it for a long time and now they got it back.

[Bitstar_coin]

It this is true there is no doubt it will dip the price a whole lot if they all decide to sell their btc, between why will the authority decide to pay all the funds at once knowing the impact it will have on price  installment payment would have been a better option. Anyways, better to get it done with so that we can all move on from it. 

[Z-tight]

Do you think they are going to hold it ?

Uh...what all of the creditors will do with their money when they get it back is unknown, but it is impossible that all of them will sell it instantly which will cause a mega-dump, some of these creditors will hold, while some will sell it, and that will tell the type of dump that is to come, another thing that will determine how bad it is going to be is how the money is going to be paid, would all the creditors receive a lump-sum payment of their money, surely people will request for alternate means, all of these will slow down the pace at which people will liquidate and reduce the effect on bitcoin price.

Some will choose the later payment option; some will want a cash-only payout; some will accept the mixed payout. And once people do finally get their bitcoin, there is no reason to assume that everyone will dump all of it anytime soon.

This snippet is from this news, it is from a month ago, but a good read on the topic.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/14/no-mt-gox-payouts-arent-going-to-torpedo-bitcoins-price/

[xSkylarx]

If they will release it in one go then what's the reason bitcoin has been pumping these past few days if many are aware of this event. If its signalling a new market bottom for this bear season then Investors could have just wait for that to happen before buying.

My theory is they will release it by batch starting next month so it wouldn't make a huge impact if creditors sell those btc.

[Kakmakr]

I think a large amount of these people are going to dump there coins, because this whole Mt Gox thing..left a bad taste in their mouth. Yes, there might be some of them that might be waiting for the next All-time-high price.. but we will definitely see a sizeable sell off of some of those coins.

I hope a lot more of these people will hoard their coins, because they were some of the early investors that had the balls and the vision to invest in something when it was still unknown and a very high risk. (They deserve a good payday, when the price hits the next all-time-high price) 

[FlamingFingers]

I hope they will release the bitcoin in batches or else its gonna have a huge negative impact to the market, we've been hearing about the news of Mt Gox releasing bitcoin, but it has not happened, I hope this time around it's not to instill fear on investors in buying the dip because despite the news, bitcoin has been pumping ever since it dumped to 17k, any time they want to release it, it will be better it is in batches, because I'm quite sure that majority of those who will receive it will definitely sell off asap

[kryptqnick]

Not many people voted yet, so it's unclear where the majority stands, but I voted for no effects. While the funds being released can be seen as a threat (assuming that people will try to sell immediately, that is), it's also a very positive thing because those who were wronged a long time ago in one of the most famous crypto scams/hacks are finally getting some reimbursements. I think that FUD over a lot of money entering the market will be balanced out to excitement that something good came out of it when most probably did not expect to get anything and came to accept their losses. I also don't think all of those people will sell their BTC immediately, given that the price is still fairly low and they can hold the funds long-term, properly this time. We'll see, of course, if something like that truly happens.

[tranthidung]

I'm about up to nothing these days with Mt Gox news.

It is classic and natural life of news. The market gradually adapt to a same type of news. Initially and in first few times, it creates a lot of panic (mostly panic) but in later times, no panic or very few panic.

Mt. Gox: fear of dump. Sooner or later, very few people will be fearful about such risk
SEC reject for Bitcoin ETFs in 2018, 2019: previously people thought that the market dumps because of SEC-related news. Later, such news did not bring negative effects.
Consumer Price Index, etc in the USA: we are witnessing it but in last two times of such announcement, not dramatic fear and price dumps on the market.

Choose a good asset for your portfolio, understand about it (basics at least) and be strong!

[franky1]

no one can predict the decisions of thousands of random people..

but here is the thing you can predict
IF the price goes down.. then thats discount. an opportunity to get coin cheap before the next cycle
IF the price doesnt go down. then the next cycle can come sooner without the temporary delay caused by first 'If'

either way, the next cycle will be higher than this cycle, so just needs patience.
this mass coin release is just a temporary event. its not going to break bitcoin for months,years. its just going to possibly affect prices for hours/weeks

[Issa56]

From my own prediction, I believe bitcoin will dump because most of them will want to sell instantly, just few of them will hold, some of them will sell and still wait for bitcoin to dump then buy again. My question is when is it going to be released?
No matter how bitcoin dump, it's definitely going to recover that's why I don't panic, if they dump it I think that's another buying opportunity for me and if it those not dump then I will keep on holding the one am having.

[Lucius]

~snip~

This whole drama about Mt.Gox is a great shame for Japan as a country, because they have shown how ineffective they have become when it comes to justice. But I am even more surprised that people in some sensationalistic way try to present the situation of refunding funds to damaged clients and that this has been going on for months.

From some previous topics it was possible to find out that 3 payment options are available to clients - cash to bank account, Bitcoin or BCH. It is also known that the payments will be made gradually, that is, not everyone will receive their funds on the same day. When these facts are taken into account, why does anyone expect that around 140 000 BTC will be dumped on the market at one point and that this will cause a new crash?

I read some comments from the link posted in the OP and one comment caught my attention - if there is anyone who is expecting payment from Mt.Gox, can they confirm that they haven't even asked for BTC addresses to return BTC?

@TheZadok
People continue to talk #mtgox as if they know. Point to false articles. Nothing this month. They haven't even asked for a #bitcoin address yet. It's just fear to fit a narrative. Maybe I should start an ask a creditor thread lmao 🤣  relax. Will post when it's coming #btc $btc

[PrivacyG]

I am almost convinced a large part of them will dump everything simply due to Bitcoin currently standing somewhere close to the All Time High of 2017.  A lot of them are going to sell because they would be able to live very well with the money they would get out of Bitcoin and, most likely, a lot of them are extremely angered by the situation enough to sort of hate Bitcoin for what happened to them and their savings or investment.

Sure, Bitcoin will rebound.  But I expect a large sell off as soon as the big bags are returned to the owners.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[dragonvslinux]

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

Well somethings not quite right here, as we're talking about 140K bitcoin that's worth $3.4 billion as of typing, not $17 billion. Unless $10b+ has already been claimed as part of the earlier payout scheme?

(I just realised that the amount credited is lower than the amount claimed, hence $18.4 billion in claims with 140K Bitcoin credited)

creditors were asked to choose between receiving an early, partial lump sum payment or waiting until the end of civil rehabilitation on the off-chance there will be more funds available to be disbursed, meaning they’d recover a larger sum.

There are so many unanswered questions about this case;

Have creditors already received their cash settlement for those who chose this option, given that Fortress were offering to give early payouts for 20% discount when price was around $60K?
How many actually opted (sort of gambled) to wait for their Bitcoin in the hope it would be slightly more than the earlier cash settlement, and is it? Doesn't look like it...

One thing for sure is that 140K is a lot of coins, but is only around 10% of daily volume, which in contrast sounds like nothing. The selling can be absorbed a lot easier than most would expect, as long as there are buyers waiting to buy, as opposed to speculators shorting the price. Even if all the coins were sold on the same day, we're talking about an extra 10% of volume, so might only lead to a 10% dip in reality if price remains relatively neutral up until that point. If price starts breaking above $25K towards $30K with high volume, any creditors selling could become barely noticeable, depending on market sentiment.

This is no longer the extra 850K liquidity disaster that could of happened, it's now only around 0.66% increase in available circulating supply.

I am almost convinced a large part of them will dump everything simply due to Bitcoin currently standing somewhere close to the All Time High of 2017.

Why would these creditors be choosing to receive Bitcoin over cash if they want to dump the coins? Makes no sense.