Mt Gox Upcoming release of funds to its creditors vs Btc Price

[PrimeNumber7]

about 80k bitcoin over a three-day period, worth approximately $2.4 billion, and the price declined roughly 20%.

More like 16% at most considering the highest price on May 8th was $35400 and the lowest price on May 10th was $29700. The dates are from the article and they claim the liquidation took place at that time. They also say it was between $31,000 and $35,000 which means the decline the sale caused was closer to 11%.

The article was being broader, and less precise than it should have been. You are correct to say the price decline was closer to 16%, even if this is nitpicking.

Will there be a 60%-80% decline in the price? No, at least not unless there are other factors unrelated to the Gox coin being released to Gox account holders that cause the price to decline. But there will be selling pressure resulting from these coins being released

[2stout]

It appears there will be some sort of drop; how much?- time will tell soon.  However on the bright side, the price drop will present another great opportunity to fill up bags at a discount for your HODLing pleasure.

[pawanjain]

.... Do you think they are going to hold it ?

They were able to live and wait for years so I won't be surprised if they hold on to it until the next run or longer to maximize their returns.

It's up to them at the end of the day so just be prepared to sell or convert to stable coin if you're too worried about what they will do.

They were able to wait for so many years because they didn't have any other option.
So I think that we will see a huge volatility when Mt Gox releases the funds.
The chances of a dump are high since many would think to exit and then sell their coins causing a dip.
Any idea when they are planning to release the funds ?

[dansus021]

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them. When Mt gox was hacked, the price of bitcoin was nothing as compared to now. These people are lucky to get that money back and they will dump it right away as first of all it is free money for them and secondly, they have waited enough. 

i actually do agree with you, i mean if i were one of the investor and wait for this long period of time I'm gonna sell little bit to enjoy profit they made a thousand percent if they sell right now.

But also i will hold lot of it. maybe i only sold 1-2 BTC 

[Marvell1]

The unfortunate moment had happened long time ago so those people have probably moved on and already have a money on them so the btc that they will be getting won't be immediately needed. People shouldn't see this as a negative news but it's a kind of positive news actually because who would have thought that the coins are still going to be returned to their rightful owners?

I agree with this thinking, this story happened in 2014 and getting compensation now is a surprise for them. No one would have thought they would be able to get their compensation after all these years, so they had other ways to fix their problems in the past.
Getting back BTC is not necessary to use it now and in Mt.Gox announcement they can get it back with BTC or cash so don't worry and don't
 spread FUD.

[pooya87]

Will there be a 60%-80% decline in the price? No, at least not unless there are other factors unrelated to the Gox coin being released to Gox account holders that cause the price to decline. But there will be selling pressure resulting from these coins being released

Unfortunately things like this always have a negative indirect effect on the price. Most of the times it is not even those coins that affect the price but everyone else's coins who panic sell that affect the price.

This is why I always say in order to speculate about such news we should focus on how many weak hands remaining instead of how much coins are being sold. I'd say right now we don't have enough weak hands left to have a significant impact on the price, which is clear from market behavior too.

[yazher]

Not a huge dip though but there will be some changes in the price for sure because those people will not gonna be 100% holding their BTC anymore. But this is actually good news it's been really a long long time since they have this kind of promise and this time they will get their BTC for sure. I'm not really sure if the other owners are still alive though. nevertheless, it's really best to hear such news after a long period of waiting.

[dragonvslinux]

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them.

i actually do agree with you, i mean if i were one of the investor and wait for this long period of time I'm gonna sell little bit to enjoy profit they made a thousand percent if they sell right now.

Why would these claimants not have sold their claims over the past year+ to companies like Fortress, and then sell now when price is down by 70%? They were being offering up to $48K per coin back in March 2021, so not sure why they would hodl only to sell around $20K. Some claimants are dumb, for sure, but not most of them I don't think. As you pointed out, most would sell for profit, so likely already done so.

I agree many would have sold their coins already, that much is true. I don't expect most are hodling any more personally. What the new owners (mainly instiutions) do with these coins is another story though...

[PrimeNumber7]

Will there be a 60%-80% decline in the price? No, at least not unless there are other factors unrelated to the Gox coin being released to Gox account holders that cause the price to decline. But there will be selling pressure resulting from these coins being released

Unfortunately things like this always have a negative indirect effect on the price. Most of the times it is not even those coins that affect the price but everyone else's coins who panic sell that affect the price.

This is why I always say in order to speculate about such news we should focus on how many weak hands remaining instead of how much coins are being sold. I'd say right now we don't have enough weak hands left to have a significant impact on the price, which is clear from market behavior too.

Sure, it is possible that some will sell in advance of the release of the coins in anticipation that those receiving the coin will also sell. This may lead to some of those who have received coin from the Gox distribution to sell when they otherwise may not have except for the lower price.

The sales cited upthread were unexpected and were not pre-planned. I don't think anyone was selling ahead of the sales related to the luna foundation sales for example. If you anticipate that people will sell ahead of the gox coin being distributed/released, I would say that you anticipate the price decline to be greater than the decline in recent months. However any short-term price decline will not change any underlying fundamentals in bitcoin, including its underlying value.

[Hold-n-play]

I believe there has been some discussion regarding this topic. For some unknown reasons moderators moved it to "Speculation" section while leaving the OP here... 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5406330.msg60568522#msg60568522

[roscoe7773339]

I believe there has been some discussion regarding this topic. For some unknown reasons moderators moved it to "Speculation" section while leaving the OP here... 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5406330.msg60568522#msg60568522

Thanks!

[arwin100]

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them.

i actually do agree with you, i mean if i were one of the investor and wait for this long period of time I'm gonna sell little bit to enjoy profit they made a thousand percent if they sell right now.

Why would these claimants not have sold their claims over the past year+ to companies like Fortress, and then sell now when price is down by 70%? They were being offering up to $48K per coin back in March 2021, so not sure why they would hodl only to sell around $20K. Some claimants are dumb, for sure, but not most of them I don't think. As you pointed out, most would sell for profit, so likely already done so.

I agree many would have sold their coins already, that much is true. I don't expect most are hodling any more personally. What the new owners (mainly instiutions) do with these coins is another story though...

For some reasons maybe they are been hype again when seeing the price of bitcoin having a good run especially when it reach to its new ATH. Maybe they think that the offer of fortress is little bit low compare to the money they can possibly get if the price pump up for more.

Pretty sure that there are creditors regret their decision not to sell especially seeing the current price of bitcoin which is far away from its last ATH.

[irfan_pak10]

News is circulating about the funds release tomorrow: https://twitter.com/search?q=mtgox&src=typed_query&f=live

[Lucius]

News is circulating about the funds release tomorrow: https://twitter.com/search?q=mtgox&src=typed_query&f=live

This news is based exclusively on that PDF document that has been circulating for some time, and it says that the payments should start at the end of August. But the people who need to receive the same payments claim that they still don't know anything, that is, that no one has contacted them even regarding the BTC addresses to which they should receive the coins.

vebuce

11 days ago

Even if the trustee announced that all Z1, Z2, Z3, ZX, ZQ, ZFFS claimants registered, and that he opens the system to fill out the data for the next step (current bank data, current proof of authenticating claimants, list of acceptable btc payout crypto exchanges and account data for crypto payout, and the binding choice of elsp vs fp), doing that, collecting the data, verifying it etc, will take surely no less than 3 months, and likely even more, and even after that, the elsp + small payments will likely take another month or two to happen, so I'd guess that the absolute soonest small sum and/or elsp payments could happen is 5-8 months

[Issa56]

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them. When Mt gox was hacked, the price of bitcoin was nothing as compared to now. These people are lucky to get that money back and they will dump it right away as first of all it is free money for them and secondly, they have waited enough. 

You are very correct, i dont think they will want to hold it, am sure not all of them will hold it but just few of them will hold and others will dump, and even if they sell it now they are already in good profit because when the exchange was hacked bitcoin price was very low compare to now. Most of them wont believe they will get the money back, some of them will have forgotten about the money, so if they distribute for them, its just like a free money for some of them. Am just waiting for them to dump it so that i can accumulate more bitcoin.

[GreatArkansas]

I don't think that they will hold these bitcoins or are willing to hold them. When Mt gox was hacked, the price of bitcoin was nothing as compared to now. These people are lucky to get that money back and they will dump it right away as first of all it is free money for them and secondly, they have waited enough. 

You are very correct, i dont think they will want to hold it, am sure not all of them will hold it but just few of them will hold and others will dump, and even if they sell it now they are already in good profit because when the exchange was hacked bitcoin price was very low compare to now.
(.,....)

These people will become practical now. I believe there will be some people that will sell all Bitcoins will get because for sure they have some personal reasons or views with Bitcoin, but they are not at loss anymore.
But I believe there are still some people that may be sold some portion and they will hold some portion too.

[2stout]

This is still most likely some time away since no official update notice-  if I has to guestimate would say 3-6 months.  This anticipated large sell off might not be a huge as some think and buying into such may only help in relieving weaker hands and panic sellers of their coin at a bargain.

[Bobrox]

These days news about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors is spreading on Twitter and seems very alarming to the BTC price action in coming days, as BTC price has not yet gained any momentum towards 28k which most of the so-called technical analysts predicted. I think we are most likely to hit <15k BTC in the coming days due to the release of almost 140k BTC from Mt gox.

If you search for the #mtgox at Twitter you will see how tense is the situation: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mtgox&src=typed_query

There is this report by BRL; https://twitter.com/lab_blockchain/status/1557330341139972104
There were 22,560 creditors share total claims of $17 billion with an average claim of ~39btc. Do you think they are going to hold it ?

Still confuse and looks little doubt about  Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors because ever I found new tweet because they not get respond yet about bitcoin fund address, I don't know about which one issues with Mt Gox releasing fund for their member. How ever with Mt Gox refund <15k BTC have been long time issues and actually ended on August is deadline day promising. I think what about Mt Gox releasing fund for their member looks as fud or give bad news exactly for bitcoin holder. After this news release make bitcoin price drop drastically but waiting until end of August that true about Mt Gox releasing of funds to its creditors or just bad news only how to make many investor panic selling their bitcoin assets and make price drop.

[Republikcoin.com]

Finally the market is on the way to the dip again. A few days ago it was said that MT Gox is going to release 140 million BTC. At that time, many thought that the price of BTC would decrease slightly due to this effect. But when that day is going to very close to us, the effect began to fall. I think this effect will not last long but the bearish market period is somewhat longer.

Now the effects of the bear market are still very visible and it is influenced by many things that are generally happening this year so it is not worth relating to just one effect.
Because when viewed globally in terms of the market, it is clear that not many investors and traders are moving to make purchases and invest in something including Bitcoin because some of them may still be recovering their money that was lost due to the decline in currency prices that is still happening.
And that includes Bitcoin so they have to use other money if they still want to buy and invest more in this period.

[Issa56]

These people will become practical now. I believe there will be some people that will sell all Bitcoins will get because for sure they have some personal reasons or views with Bitcoin, but they are not at loss anymore.
But I believe there are still some people that may be sold some portion and they will hold some portion too.

We all know that's what will happen, their are some people that won't even sell any of their bitcon, am sure some of them will still continue trading even after losing their money during the hack, so some of them will still believe in bitcon am sure those once won't sell, but some of them that lose interest after losing their money in the hack will definitely sell now. But since they are already in good profit I believe the percentage of the once that will sell will definitely be high because the are already in good profit so they won't really want to hold it, which will slightly affect bitcoin price but we all know bitcoin price will bounce back.