Bitcoin Longterm Price Target

[hZti]

Since the beginning of bitcoin it is basically in a very volatile uptrend. It is not likely that it stays like this forever (50+ years). What are your thoughts on what could be a price target for bitcoin longterm?

I made this calculation for an adoption of 50 % of the current world population:

21.000.000 Bitcoins : 4 Billion People= 0.00525 Bitcoin per person on average. The average value of the wealth per person globally is: 79.952 USD.

If you now would calculate the bitcoin price so that 0.00525 Bitcoins are worth 79.952 USD then you would end up with a bitcoin price of : 15.228.952 USD per Bitcoin.

This calculation is of course very inaccurate and makes a lot of assumptions. Still it can show where in some specific scenario the bitcoin price can end up, since for now I feel the price has just random targets and is dictated by exchanges and whales.

If you have different approaches feel free to share!

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[mk4]

It's extremely hard to make price estimations knowing that there are a lot of different theses(day-to-day currency/blackmarket currency/SoV/a combination of a few/etc) and different factors(theses/demographics/etc) to take into account.

My take is just that it should be priced a lot higher in the future when the market sort of prices bitcoin a bit more accurately, compared to it's current state where it's pretty much just a scam/ponzi for most people.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Also those 21million supply isnt 21million too.  Some of these are forgotten and loss in the blockchain due to such personal mistake and some of it also hasnt been mined all.

Aiming to calculate the price isnt easy.  Not sure though if bitcoin supply is equally distributed,  what price it could reach.  But of course this is impssible since some have really big cut on the pie.

[Charles-Tim]

Bitcoin is not dictated by exchanges or whales, exchanges would only list bitcoin for trading purpose, the overall buyers and sellers are the ones that determine what bitcoin price would be.

Truely no one knows if bitcoin can still be existing in the next 50 years, but I doubt if it would not. Only what I guess is that the price would one day hit a million dollars. You have not even mentioned fiat devaluation as a result of inflation, that would also contribute to bitcoin price appreciation in long term.

Also those 21million supply isnt 21million too.  Some of these are forgotten and loss in the blockchain due to such personal mistake and some of it also hasnt been mined all.

Almost all bitcoin would have been mined by 2050, but some more would have been lost, the calculation may not be accurate, but definitely that bitcoin price would further be appreciating.

[livingfree]

I'll say that sky is the limit if it's about the truest potential and price of bitcoin in the future. Take all of those halvings for example and when we say long term, it'll depend on how long you're looking at it.

With halving, as the reward for the mined blocks will become lesser for the miners. That will result to the lesser supply and higher difficulty for it to mine a block and as well as higher price.

Well, I don't have a price in my mind but I'm very much optimistic and waiting for it to come. Many might laugh at us for now if we tell them about 6 to 7 digits but who knows, right?

[NeuroticFish]

If you have different approaches feel free to share!

There's no actual number and as others said "sky is the limit" because fiat is continuously eroded by inflation. So in 10s of years in the future Bitcoin may worth *a lot* because of its scarcity (and demand!) and also because fiat is losing value continuously.

The only missing part of the "equation" is the demand. If, for some reason, the demand would go down, the price will also go down. If the demand remains the same, the price will grow. If the demand rises (and that's what I expect) the price will skyrocket.

[cryptoaddictchie]

Only what I guess is that the price would one day hit a million dollars.

If thats happened then a lot of people would have a great fortune in the future. I am not expecting it to be sooner but when this thing happen on btc then I wouls definitely remember that you mentioned it here.

Almost all bitcoin would have been mined by 2050, but some more would have been lost, the calculation may not be accurate, but definitely that bitcoin price would further be appreciating.

Is there a way to track those supply that has been lost or cant be recover anymore?

[palle11]

The future is what we can not be sure of on how it will be for bitcoin on longtime. The adoption rate will surely affect your calculations and that was not taken into account. One of the link missing also is the numbers of bitcoin that will be lost from the newly mined in addition to the already lost bitcoins which is missing link. For the times so far that bitcoin has not dropped down to $10k and beyond according to predictions and speculators, we are going to see bitcoin appreciate into 6 digits.

[Z-tight]

I don't have an approach to be used to predict the price of bitcoin longterm, and i do not think any person can have an accurate approach that will arrive at the exact result in the future, we can speculate, that is not too hard to do, but we can't control the market pattern, and something very different to our prediction can eventually happen.

It goes without saying that bitcoin's uptrend is just beginning, it has a capped supply and it is inflation-resistant, so the price can touch amounts that are so high & unexpected and difficult to predict; i will not try to calculate what the price will be, but i trust the network and if i live long, i will be in it to see what the future holds.

[hZti]

I don't have an approach to be used to predict the price of bitcoin longterm, and i do not think any person can have an accurate approach that will arrive at the exact result in the future, we can speculate, that is not too hard to do, but we can't control the market pattern, and something very different to our prediction can eventually happen.

That is totally right but I just like to collect numbers on what people think. Because right now it seems that the market is basically random and we will never be able to archive a relatively high and stable price if people do not think about this. So if you want, feel free to post a number what you think.

[Solosanz]

The thing is you're calculating like the whole people used all his money only to buy Bitcoin, this is why your calculation are inaccurate.

I think S2F models are could give you an idea how much Bitcoin will worth in the long term, though it's like impossible. But it was started from nothing to reach $20K which is no one expect it except Satoshi at that times.

Maybe if you only use 10% of the average wealth, it's more make sense.

[ningrum]

I don't have an approach to be used to predict the price of bitcoin longterm, and i do not think any person can have an accurate approach that will arrive at the exact result in the future, we can speculate, that is not too hard to do, but we can't control the market pattern, and something very different to our prediction can eventually happen.

That is totally right but I just like to collect numbers on what people think. Because right now it seems that the market is basically random and we will never be able to archive a relatively high and stable price if people do not think about this. So if you want, feel free to post a number what you think.

it is very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin, especially at this time, because we are in a bear market,
where the bottom is still not clearly visible, yes, although many people have said $17k is a bottom,
but I myself am still not sure, and what you are right say about random prices.

[Mr.right85]

Of course it's clearly stated that this calculations comes with a lot of assumptions and with that, the element of demand and supply is not considered in all this and that plays a vital role in the functionality of bitcoin as well as other scares commodities.

Bitcoin is capped at 21,000,000 and is ure to be one of the most scares commodities in the world that is expected to be used on a global scale and that means, the price obtained in that calculation can't go.

It doesn't even apply at the moment and with bitcoins surging after every halving, we would come to a point where the Sats would come with some real value.

[hZti]

Maybe if you only use 10% of the average wealth, it's more make sense.

This may be true, but then we should have a lot lower prices right now, because the adoption is so low at the moment. I used that high of a wealth to compensate for investment funds, countries, etc. that will also buy in. Still Im open for other numbers.

[Longer27]

I think in the future $ 1,000,000 per BTC coin will be the bottom, but for now all we are seeing is just the volatility of the coin getting back on its feet...

[justdimin]

The thing is you're calculating like the whole people used all his money only to buy Bitcoin, this is why your calculation are inaccurate.

I think S2F models are could give you an idea how much Bitcoin will worth in the long term, though it's like impossible. But it was started from nothing to reach $20K which is no one expect it except Satoshi at that times.

Maybe if you only use 10% of the average wealth, it's more make sense.

That's definitely true. Which still leaves with 1.5 million per bitcoin if we are looking at averages. Do not get me started on the companies as well, because this is per person, if we are talking about prices based on companies, that's going to change it a lot as well. All in all, what I believe bitcoin is all about equals to no top price ever.

Because, there is inflation as well. If the average person could have 80k per year salary today, it will be 100k in a decade or so, which means that we can't talk about how bitcoin is all great and what not, while also not realizing that inflation will make sure that bitcoin will be ever growing and will never stop.

[Johnyz]

I think in the future $ 1,000,000 per BTC coin will be the bottom, but for now all we are seeing is just the volatility of the coin getting back on its feet...

Wondering how much is the price of Pizza at that time because probably, commodities will also rise along with the cryptomarket. There’s a lot of good predictions with Bitcoin and many are really bullish about Bitcoin though its ok to think about that but maybe its also good to focus more on the current situation of the market. That future can help you motivate to adopt Bitcoin, and save some of your holdings for that purpose.

[goaldigger]

I think in the future $ 1,000,000 per BTC coin will be the bottom, but for now all we are seeing is just the volatility of the coin getting back on its feet...

Wondering how much is the price of Pizza at that time because probably, commodities will also rise along with the cryptomarket. There’s a lot of good predictions with Bitcoin and many are really bullish about Bitcoin though its ok to think about that but maybe its also good to focus more on the current situation of the market. That future can help you motivate to adopt Bitcoin, and save some of your holdings for that purpose.

There’s still no assurance for this but the way Bitcoin works today, I can say that its really meant to stay and probably everyone will have their own Bitcoin by that time. Whales will become more rich, and those who have at least 1 BTC can also live a happy life if they are able to hold until such time. The limited supply of Bitcoin is a big thing, once we mined all of them probably the supply will be limited and if the adoption also started, that will make the price of Bitcoin more expensive.

[GreatArkansas]

Since the beginning of bitcoin it is basically in a very volatile uptrend. It is not likely that it stays like this forever (50+ years).
(....)

I am thinking that more volume or market cap on Bitcoin even if the price is not that so high, will help the price of Bitcoin less volatile compared to what we experience for the past few years, and even now, volatile is still huge for me compared to other assets that already got high trading volume, it's just a sign we are still early.

[worle1bm]

In the coming years we can't say with surety but seeing the current trend the btc will be worth much because fiat around the globe is subject to inflation at much faster pace.The USD,EURO and all other currencies are going down each year and the demand for btc is rising and supply decreasing which will surely boost it's price.If it will be still in usage few years later the price will be higher then $200k or something which is just an estimate.