Dormant Bitcoin Addresses on the move

[GreatArkansas]

https://twitter.com/PositiveCrypto/status/1564495749043277824/photo/1

These days there are some Bitcoin transactions that came from Bitcoin addresses that have had no activity for 7-9 years.
If you take a look at the chart, when these transactions are executed, there we see some drops in the price.

I am curious if it's a coincidence or if it's really the transaction that sold those Bitcoin on the market immediately.
Or only people triggered the dumps because they saw some transactions transferring Bitcoins from Bitcoin addresses with no activity from 7-9 years.

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[OgNasty]

It is interesting and appears to be more than a coincidence.  I think it's likely the result of higher prices enticing people out of their stash though.  I'm not sure if you can really trade on something like this, but it's good to be able to know when some people with a lot of skin in the game start looking for the exits.  Another piece of data to take into account.

[NeuroticFish]

I am curious if it's a coincidence or if it's really the transaction that sold those Bitcoin on the market immediately.

I have a feeling that some of those coins are owned by people who have left their wallets forgotten on various HDDs and the latest ATH made them look for their old money, look for programs to recover old deleted files and so on. And since that takes time, some of those moves happen this late.
I mean that it may be also a relation between these findings and the increase of topics made by people asking how to get their hands on their old wallets...

Of course, it may not cover all that money.
Also I expect people only sell small parts of those riches, but it still counts as big amounts of dormant money being moved, since the entire inputs are spent; plus the change may go to new, SegWit addresses too.

Or only people triggered the dumps because they saw some transactions transferring Bitcoins from Bitcoin addresses with no activity from 7-9 years.

In the days of bearish market people can get scared by anything and everything can be exploited by smart bears. I don't think though that the current price is that much related to those old funds on the move.

[Lucius]

I think that people are just looking for a reason to explain the current price, and it seems that blockchain analysis is something from which endless speculations are drawn. Of course, sometimes the big whales really sell part of their BTC, but with 19+ million BTC mined so far, is our market so weak that a few thousand or tens of thousands of BTC can have a significant impact on the price?

It seems that someone would like to lower the price of BTC even more, because there are too many people who are constantly calling for a new bottom in order to fill their bags and get rich again when the new bull run starts.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I'm not convinced. Seems like a case of selection bias to me - i.e. purposefully selecting a subset of the data to make it show what you want it to show, while ignoring the rest of the data which doesn't show this.

The author of the tweet has picked 6 points which fall in to the categories of "Dormant for 7-9 years" and "Greater than 5,000 BTC", and said the prices drops after these 6 movements. However, if you go to look closer at the chart, then after points 3, 4, and 5, the price actually increases. So we really only have 3 points in which the movement of these coins corresponds to a price drop, which is easily within the realms of coincidence.

Now look at the other categories. There are over a dozen points within the "Dormant for 5-7 years" and "Greater than 5,000 BTC" categories. The majority of these points do not show a price drop. Indeed, the two most recent points in this category are huge - movements of 70,000 and 90,000 BTC respectively. In both cases, the price went up immediately afterwards.

I don't see why 5,000 BTC movements of 7-9 year old coins would make the market fall, while movements of up to 90,000 BTC of 5-7 year old coins would make the market go up instead. I think the author is looking for a correlation which isn't there.

[btc_angela]

Mt. Gox coins? Anyhow, the holder should know that it is better to do OTC on this instead of having in circulated in an exchange, unless he/she wanted to scare or create some negative news about the huge movements that eventually did make it to the media. But I guess there is nothing to be afraid of, no need to panic, there is no huge dump that we have seen, the price seems to go just above $20k.

[jackg]

You don't need to market sell coins for the price to drop. Just posting a limit Sell order at a price you think is reasonable is enough for the price to fall as other people try to sell their coins and compete against your advertised ask.

  Another piece of data to take into account.

Yeah I'd say it looks like it'd be productive if you used it as an indicator but don't trade the actual signal (they don't look like they come around that often either).

[Upgrade00]

I could build a narrative around each price drop, showing that it was because bitcoins where moved from X address to Y address, regardless of how much is in either address. That wouldn't make it a reality.

It's a reach for me, and an atempt to create content out of nothing.
Whale movements are reported all to often, this is probably cause people get excited at the prospects of a single person holding 1k+ BTC, but such reports do not correspond to any price action.

I can imagine that majority of traders were unaware of this shake movement or the inactivity of the addresses, before this tweet was made.

[Lucius]

Mt. Gox coins?

How would that be possible if we know that the payment process has not even started yet, and that no preparatory work has been started that would give a hint that the payments will start happening, maybe not even this year. The level of blindness of most people (and even on this forum) is incredible, to the extent that they will not even bother to read some relevant information but believe speculations.

My post in the Mt.Gox thread went completely unnoticed, and the discussion continued in a completely wrong direction. The price of BTC is so bad for most that there must be a reason for it, as if a bear market in itself is not a sufficient explanation.

[jostorres]

Mt. Gox coins? Anyhow, the holder should know that it is better to do OTC on this instead of having in circulated in an exchange, unless he/she wanted to scare or create some negative news about the huge movements that eventually did make it to the media. But I guess there is nothing to be afraid of, no need to panic, there is no huge dump that we have seen, the price seems to go just above $20k.

I thought the old coins from mt gox are already lost long time ago? And the one that they will use to pay their customers are fresh bitcoins. Maybe the owner of this btc didn't really care if they could scare the public or not but what important for them is they move their btc and I think there is still a way to find out the latest/big transaction even if you won't use a crypto exchange because there are so many tools available right now in the web and there are even those who give you instant alerts whenever a big transaction is detected somewhere else but indeed there is no need to panic because it won't do anything good but it will only make you lose.