The economic danger of China and Taiwan war

[Leviathan.007]

If you ask me I would say they should take lessons from the war between Russia and Ukraine because in Asia there is the same situation between China and Taiwan, Putin was thinking because of his military power they can defeat Ukine, but they were wrong because of the help from all over the world especially the USA and EU Russia is still facing with some problem and they are under economic sanctions, while in all over the world this war had the negative effect of the world economy, and there in China, they have the same situation and if they start the war we can see the same thing but this time in Asia and China.

[Haunebu]

I don't think Xi is dumb enough to strike Taiwan currently when the world economy is heading towards recession. China could actually end up losing more when compared to Taiwan just like the Russia-Ukraine situation.

The Chinese government couldn't do jack when US sent over their politicians to Taiwan recently which itself implies that they are not really interested in starting a war with Taiwan.

[avikz]

I don't think Xi is dumb enough to strike Taiwan currently when the world economy is heading towards recession. China could actually end up losing more when compared to Taiwan just like the Russia-Ukraine situation.

The Chinese government couldn't do jack when US sent over their politicians to Taiwan recently which itself implies that they are not really interested in starting a war with Taiwan.

That's what my fear is! China has recovered quite well from the effects of COVID, rather faster than many other countries. At the same time, Taiwan is known for semiconductor and electronics industry. So I won't be surprised if China actually plans to launch attack on Taiwan.

That might start a big war and lead to World War III. US president Joe Biden said that US will stand beside Taiwan if any war happens. So the impact on world economy will be devastating if it happens in reality. Bitcoin may get lucky among this turmoil.

[justdimin]

I can say that the US and NATO will not be weakened if they can supply Ukraine with unlimited weapons. Instead, they are rather timid about supplying Ukraine with weapons, weapons are limited and how Nato's soldiers will fight without weapons in hand. Aid is a problem that is causing headaches for the US and EU because if Ukraine cannot end the war with victory, it will be a huge loss for all that they provide to Ukraine. There have been many warnings from military analysts that if aid continues to Ukraine, both the US and EU will deplete their arsenals.

I think they compete for Taiwan there, the semiconductor industry plays a key role in Taiwan, everyone wants to own it.

Let me put it this way, USA supplied Ukraine with 1/10th of their yearly budget, and it has worked wonders and Ukraine has managed to push off Russia already, and that is literally just 1/10th of their budget, probably less. They sent about 40 billion dollars worth of military stuff, and around 40 billion dollars worth of cash or equal stuff, like to buy these things or food or shelter or clothes etc for people, and they have 800 billion dollars budget for military each year.

So, imagine the scenario where Russia and USA goes against each other. Obviously it would be horrible due to nuclear weapons that will destroy the world, but if we remove nuclear weapons, Russia would fall within just a few months, if 40 billion sends Russians back, think of 800 billion per year could do to them.

[blue_hurricanger]

I don't think Xi is dumb enough to strike Taiwan currently when the world economy is heading towards recession. China could actually end up losing more when compared to Taiwan just like the Russia-Ukraine situation.

The Chinese government couldn't do jack when US sent over their politicians to Taiwan recently which itself implies that they are not really interested in starting a war with Taiwan.

That's what my fear is! China has recovered quite well from the effects of COVID, rather faster than many other countries. At the same time, Taiwan is known for semiconductor and electronics industry. So I won't be surprised if China actually plans to launch attack on Taiwan.

That might start a big war and lead to World War III. US president Joe Biden said that US will stand beside Taiwan if any war happens. So the impact on world economy will be devastating if it happens in reality. Bitcoin may get lucky among this turmoil.

Chinese government had already learned from the mistake Russia made and I don't know if they are ready to take the risk of crumbling there economy because of ordinary war. Chinese government will not allow such a mistake especially the Europe which is there main target when we talk about business to crumble the relationship they have with many NATO countries. China is not ready for this war and the chances of this war occuring is low.

Doubt China learn from Russia's mistake in their invasion of Ukraine. Worse, it could give China a case to study how the whole world is very fractured and divided. Sure, Ukraine got the support from US and Nato allies but only in non-direct ways like weapons, tanks, ammos,... but no troops whatsoever. This might be a lesson for China if they want to invade Taiwan since Taiwan is an island, if China could surround the Taiwan island and blockable all the incoming supplies from the US and its allies, stall enough time, you know.

Of course, if US and allies are willing to commit their troops to protect Taiwan island then this plan of China is not working, not enough in any way. A lot of things need to be considered here.

[Smack That Ace]

Economic sanctions on China will definitely damage US's economy as well. Will they really consider it tho? I think travel bans and arms embargoes will be the first to be enacted. Arms embargoes can be a cruel one and may lead to direct military conflict with China as the initiator. Things are going to be messy.
Apocalypse soon?

Should remember that China is considered the world's factory, any ban on China means it will hurt the whole world, not just the US. If war breaks out, I think the world economy will be much more devastating than what Russia and Ukraine caused.

China, Russia and India are having a close relationship with each other, I believe that these 3 countries will create a new extreme in the future to balance the world, the world is no longer just playing by US rules and EU. The rise of these three countries is unstoppable.

[Die_empty]

Don't be scared, China is just making a facade. They might have a big military and they are making sure the world sees it but there's a housing market crisis in China right now and the cracks of authoritarian regime are showing so I don't think that they're going on an offensive soon, remember that Taiwan has a lot of the US allies on it's side too.

When Russia was planning to invade Ukraine majority of us felt this invasion would never happen. Even Ukraine was not prepared for the invasion because it felt Russia would be scared of its allies, but the world is now suffering from the invasion. China is not a democratic nation that has a functional parliament that can deliberate on the policies and programs of the executive arm. There is also no viable opposition party that can oppose the policies of the Communist Party of China. Just like Putin, Xi Jinping has the power to declare because he is a despot and has no opposition.

The United States and its allies must make China understand that Taiwan would not be treated like Ukraine where none of its allies' troops are fighting.   Joe Biden made such a remarkable move when he stated that US troops would protect the Taiwanese territory.

Economically the world would suffer because Taiwan is one of the leading economies in Asia. The world is suffering from a shortage of gas, oil, and agricultural products because of the Russian invasion but China's invasion of Taiwan would lead to a shortage of technological and electronic parts and products. The would be an increase in the prices of electronics and communication products.        

[Kakmakr]

Well, strictly speaking.... USA and China are already at war, with the financial & military support that they are giving to the Ukraine and Russia on both sides.  They do not have feet on the ground, but they are funding the war and also giving specialist support on the military side. 

The Taiwanese involvement will be more direct... so it will be officially seen as a direct influence in that conflict. It will send the global financial markets into a downward spiral and Crypto currencies will also feel the influence of that. 

[Davidvictorson]

The economic effects of a conflict between China and Taiwan are shown by the following example. If a conflict ever breaks out, we already know that the US will really lose out to China in the semiconductor business. As no trade will happen. This will have a significant impact on Western domestic markets, causing previously unanticipated increases in inflation and shortages.

[Sithara007]

Despite its huge population and stable economy, China can't simply afford to wage a major war. Human life has become more precious, as the Russians have just found out. Many of the families have just one child each nowadays and they don't want to sacrifice their children in needless wars. And in China, the situation is more exacerbated as a result of the one-child policy. An invasion of Taiwan will cost China millions of lives and there is no way the country can afford that. It was possible in the 20th century, but definitely not in the 21st century.

[bittraffic]

Despite its huge population and stable economy, China can't simply afford to wage a major war. Human life has become more precious, as the Russians have just found out. Many of the families have just one child each nowadays and they don't want to sacrifice their children in needless wars. And in China, the situation is more exacerbated as a result of the one-child policy. An invasion of Taiwan will cost China millions of lives and there is no way the country can afford that. It was possible in the 20th century, but definitely not in the 21st century.

On the near side of Russia, there is a war going on but not on TV news. Azerbaijan vs Armenia. Pelosi also visited Azerbaijan after a massive attack on Armenia where almost 200 people I believe were dead. The war was also about the contested border region which is Nagornokaraba.

China vs Taiwan tension I guess is dying despite US ships passing thru Taiwan straight, China didn't engage.
If war erupts, Asia will really be disturbed. China has more influence and economic disaster will affect all its surroundings.

[stompix]

I can say that the US and NATO will not be weakened if they can supply Ukraine with unlimited weapons. Instead, they are rather timid about supplying Ukraine with weapons, weapons are limited and how Nato's soldiers will fight without weapons in hand. Aid is a problem that is causing headaches for the US and EU because if Ukraine cannot end the war with victory, it will be a huge loss for all that they provide to Ukraine. There have been many warnings from military analysts that if aid continues to Ukraine, both the US and EU will deplete their arsenals.

Yeah, yeah, what has NATO sent to Ukraine? 20 PHZ2000 and 18 Himars? Out of 350 and one thousand? 100 field guns out of thousands?
Zero tanks out of god know how many, zero planes out of 12 000?

You're thinking that a military budget that just in case the US is half the size of the entire GDP if Russia will be unable to cover the losses?
Get your head out of Russian propaganda, it's not a nice place to be in!

This might be a lesson for China if they want to invade Taiwan since Taiwan is an island, if China could surround the Taiwan island and blockable all the incoming supplies from the US and its allies, stall enough time, you know.

You know which is the only capital of the world that is situated 50 meters below sea level? It's Moskva! 

On the near side of Russia, there is a war going on but not on TV news. Azerbaijan vs Armenia. Pelosi also visited Azerbaijan after a massive attack on Armenia where almost 200 people I believe were dead.

Pelosi visited Armenia, not Azerbaijan, at least get the sides of the conflict right!

People should think first about the most important thing, what has China to gain from invading Taiwan?
Almost zero, if you think of chip manufacturers, then a small surprise for you, both TSMC and Samsung depend on ASML for their process, which is a dutch company. No ASML, no lithography no chips. 

They will get a few bombed plants, 20 million people that will hate them forever, and lose 70% of their export market, for, what?

[doomloop]

The economic effects of a conflict between China and Taiwan are shown by the following example. If a conflict ever breaks out, we already know that the US will really lose out to China in the semiconductor business. As no trade will happen. This will have a significant impact on Western domestic markets, causing previously unanticipated increases in inflation and shortages.

That is the result of USA not investing in the right places. They could build 10 chip factories with just one years worth of military budget, they have like 800 billion per year, which means 80 billion is more than enough to not only build the factory, but get the resources and even hire the most famous people who could.

It may not be working perfectly right now, because it takes years to develop great stuff, but they could at least give it a start. What I do not understand is that some stuff are obvious and it is going to happen, but every nation gets into them too late, why not get ready beforehand, get ready when the tech is available, so you would be doing fine when the time comes.

[tbterryboy]

I can say that the US and NATO will not be weakened if they can supply Ukraine with unlimited weapons. Instead, they are rather timid about supplying Ukraine with weapons, weapons are limited and how Nato's soldiers will fight without weapons in hand. Aid is a problem that is causing headaches for the US and EU because if Ukraine cannot end the war with victory, it will be a huge loss for all that they provide to Ukraine. There have been many warnings from military analysts that if aid continues to Ukraine, both the US and EU will deplete their arsenals.

Yeah, yeah, what has NATO sent to Ukraine? 20 PHZ2000 and 18 Himars? Out of 350 and one thousand? 100 field guns out of thousands?
Zero tanks out of god know how many, zero planes out of 12 000?

You're thinking that a military budget that just in case the US is half the size of the entire GDP if Russia will be unable to cover the losses?
Get your head out of Russian propaganda, it's not a nice place to be in!

What they sent doesn't matter, the power resides when you are winning and right now Ukraine has stopped defending and started attacking which means something must be going alright for them. What is the point of giving thousands of tanks, thousands of planes, thousands of missiles when you would only anger Russia? Give "just enough" and let the Ukraine win the war one way or another that’s the aim.

I understand that west has enough weapons to destroy Russia in a single day, they really would, just thousands of planes dropping thousands of bombs in a single day would already make them suffer and go back. BUT in that case, how can you guarantee that Putin won't go mad and nuke everywhere? That’s the trouble.

[DrBeer]

To be brief - "China is ready to promote strong and sustainable relations with NATO - Chinese Foreign Minister."
It is foolish to think that China will destroy the ties with the United States with its own hands, which essentially support the entire economy of China. Taiwan, of course, causes a chasotok between the big toes of the Chinese government But against the backdrop of growing internal economic problems, China will not risk the global destruction of the economy by US sanctions, which will clearly be in the event of aggression against Taiwan. China is not such idiots as the Kremlin crazy Nazis

[Mario Yamasaki]

I'm sure the potential for the Chinese vs Taiwan War is very small, China will not dare to invasion to Taiwan because he knows Taiwan has strong international support, especially the countries around China are USA allies, and of course China will be very loss because money and investment abroad can be frozen.

[DrBeer]

It seems that the topic of Taiwan may become irrelevant
Something is happening in China
Troops are massively transferred to Beijing, a column 80 km long was seen. There are massive rumors on Twitter about a military coup in China and Xi's early resignation from office. There are a lot of these posts and from different publications / media as well.
Moreover, China has canceled more than 6,000 (!) domestic and international flights. All tickets sold by high-speed rail are suspended. Rail traffic is completely suspended until further notice.

[Vinaa77]

From looking into the war in Taiwan, the dangers of third world war is coming. I read the effect is worse with Russia and Ukraine. USA is not very friendly with China and it is possible that China will close the straits for USA Navy movement in that environment this going to cause US to put sanction against China including trading sanction restriction of Binance.

What effect is coming if Binance is sanctioned to operate in NATO countries.

What you say is not part of the NATO treaty. If the USA closed the Binance exchange, of course other Nato member countries would not do the same. Apart from that, Taiwan is not part of the NATO membership. So that Nato will not interfere in the affairs of war openly with China.

[fadhilz123]

Today there is hot news, namely the USA and Canada warships crossing the Taiwan Strait and making China very angry, but I am sure China will not go to war with Taiwan because of the support of many countries, especially China, Europe and so on.

How can you be sure that China will not go to war with Taiwan? Are you a foreign minister or an ambassador for the two countries. So you can be very sure just by reading a news without being there. This is a definite thing that cannot be guessed even though there is news, because news writers also make a little summary to contain the news they want and it is not just made up.

So you need to see clearly so that your guess is correct and every news you read you also need to see where the source is, because now there are so many news sites whose contents are incomplete so that everyone does not have to believe it immediately after reading it.

[kryptqnick]

While there's certainly more tension now between China and Taiwan, I don't think China will go to war over it. China is smart, it's learning from mistakes of others. For years, it's been favoring economic interdependence over military action while being prepared for military action should this option become a more viable one. They can see how terribly wrong Russia's war against Ukraine went: so much isolation and condemnation of Russia, seized international funds, also the fact that despite being a much bigger country with a much bigger military power, Russia failed spectacularly and continues losing in Ukraine, so much that the general mobilization seems like the only way forward. I don't think China wants any of that or is stupid enough to think that the war with Taiwan would go very differently. So, hopefully, the war won't spread like that. If it did, I agree that would mean an even bigger hit on global economy.