ㅤ

[franky1]

That is absolutely right, still the fiat market has a huge impact on bitcoin. Since the last 10+ years there was a flood of fiat money, we could see bitcoin increase. What will happen hoverer if the next 10+ years we will see high interest rates and not much new money being printed.

here is a revelation to you about "flood of fiat"

you will be surprised to learn about fiat market of bitcoin

imagine in 2012 an average "minnow trader" had $400 a month to spend to buy bitcoin
with bitcoin at $6 a coin. meant they got 66btc

this does not mean that now that 1btc is 2500x more in price($16k).. that people are average spending 2500x more per month
(that minnow is not forced to deposit more money just to trade/get in)

what you are actually seeing is minnow investors are still paying $400 a month

however bitcoin sellers no longer want to give them 66 coins for $400.. instead they will give them 0.025btc for the offered $400

yep. bitcoin market is not simply more money needs to be put in, to raise bitcoin prices..

its not like fiat shares where only whole shares have to be bought which means investors have to pay more to get invested.

bitcoin is divisible

in 2012 the minnow and whales were noticeably in 2 'order' amounts you would see flowing orders of 1btc and "wall orders"(hard to break through) of 1000btc on markets..

now we see 0.001 and "wall orders" of 1btc

its not where people who deposited $6 in 2012 to buy 1btc now have to pay $16k+ just to get 'in'

they can still pay in just $6. its just the seller gives them decimals..
which then translate to being $16k for a whole coin (due to math, not money). even without people actually handing over $16k for whole coins on the market orders, bitcoin prices can and do go up

yep the market price is not actually buyers swapping whole $16k for a whole 1btc

its little orders of like $160 to buy 0.01 which translates to (math: away from real trade hand changing of real funds).. as  a statistic of $16k for 1 btc
..
so lets say instead of $15k being min mine cost. it went to $20k a coin mining cost
lets say instead of $400 a buyer only had $300 spare

a bitcoin seller..
now 0.025btc for $400 (translates to $16k a coin)
becomes 0.015btc for $300  (translates to $20k a coin)

so even with les "buyer money" deposited into a market. the price can still rise. because the sellers give less coin to those buyers

.. a system unlike fiat stock/shares where people have to buy whole shares. which means more fiat is needed to be deposited to buy shares

[bitzizzix]

The annual cycle of bitcoin in my opinion is something like this:

2012 and 2013 were bull markets (uptrends)
2014 and 2015 were bear market (downtrend)
2016 and 2017 were bull markets (uptrends)
2018 and 2019 are bear markets (downtrend)
2020 and 2021 will be bullish (uptrend)
2022 and 2023 will be bearish (downtrend)
2024 and 2025 will be bullish (uptrend)

and that's just my opinion, so I've never been afraid of a bitcoin drop and I consider this drop a big discount that shouldn't be wasted, and DCA is the best choice to increase buying during a downtrend.

[salad daging]

A four-year cycle is hard for me. Because I bought a little bit of bitcoin at $50,000. I think the best way to invest is to buy it and then forget about it. Follow its price a few years later.

If you have extra fund you can accumulate more during this price crash.  DCA at least in order to lower down your buy price.  And if you don't want to spend more then just hodl and wait for the market to surge on the next bitcoin halving.  As stated by OP, Bitcoin market is cyclical so you just need to wait for the current cycle to end and be on the look for the ATH in the next cycle.

I agree with everything that you say serjent05 - except you seem to imply that there is some kind of guarantee that we will be out of this cycle and reach another ATH. 

Sure the odds are pretty decent that we will both be going up and that we will reach new ATHs in the coming years, there is no guarantees that ATH will be reached or that BTC will continue to follow a cycle, even if historically (so far) Bitcoin has largely followed a cycle.

I am sure about that but for me there is no guarantee about it but we will soon get out of the current cycle and reach a new cycle by achieving ATH.
I see history, what I understand, behind it, there are always those who say that the 4-year bitcoin cycle will become a routine, even if it happens again in the future, I will still be happy that bitcoin will recover and be bullish again.

For me now is a downtrend cycle that has just started we have to prepare for it from now on, to get bitcoin and DCA and Dips is a common practice now, for those who buy above have to stay patient and forget about your investment money, and come back after a year 2024.
As for my DCA practice I have to keep it running all week and it can't get boring for me, even though it's a bit annoying to see the prices.
But I can do that without reducing me to bitcoins.

[Inwestour]

lesson one is this. do not look at or care about ATH. do not think of ATH as a important number. think of them as just a temporary blip event of premium prices no one wants to buy

flip the mindset.. look at the historic periodic lows to find value. note that the periodic cyclical lows rise in value.

always buy low .. and sell high. low=important.. high is pfft not so
do not use words like "when bull market return"

I read one post today where a user says that maybe we won't see a big growth anymore, but I don't think that's the case, the cycle persists and everything repeats every time. Therefore, we will see the new ATH again, I believe in it, but I don’t know how much the price goes up like many here. Yes, you are right, it is not very smart to buy bitcoin when it reaches high values.

assume you are only watching the periodic lows that are in constant bull
assume the market price above the lows is just the whimsy of speculation, the clouds in the sky, the vapour. and not a value

But this time with all-time lows, things are a little different. It used to be that the previous high became the next low in a new bearish cycle, this time it should have been around 19k, but as we see this time we went lower, so we can say that this regularity has changed.

yes take advantage of the whimsy movements of the market. but dont have the mindset of bull and bear where you are thinking that the CORRECTION from a 1 day ATH event is a bear and that bears are bad as they are killing your value..
instead realise you are slaves to gravity. you stand at ground level looking up.. lows are the best times to buy. the happy days.

Definitely now the time has come when it is worth buying bitcoin. I also bought at a higher price before, but I should buy now all the more so that my average purchase price is even more profitable. The best days are right now, so this is definitely something to take advantage of. I will be happy if the price starts to rise tomorrow, but I will also not be upset if we continue to fall for some time.

..
you will then over time start to have this mindset.
i years ago got a nice hoard of coin. i do not think about "omg i missed a ATH to sell" instead i think "well 2020 value was $3k 2021 value was $10k 2022 value is $15k". i know each year the value of my coin goes up. because i stay grounded. looking at the grass that feeds my cows that i can milk when i want

This is something that is clearly visible to everyone, every time, every new cycle, even every year the price rises and it becomes obvious that the price will continue to rise further, this is obvious to many, but fears make people do stupid things. You are right, those who can see the all picture will stick to their strategy and will definitely make good profits in the future, this is obvious.

[Sayakaaja]

I am still learning in this forum, can only comment. that, the world is like a wheel. those below will go up, and those above will go down. so bitcoin is also like that. even though it continues above it will definitely go down, and if it continues below it will definitely go up later.

[franky1]

I read one post today where a user says that maybe we won't see a big growth anymore, but I don't think that's the case, the cycle persists and everything repeats every time. Therefore, we will see the new ATH again, I believe in it, but I don’t know how much the price goes up like many here. Yes, you are right, it is not very smart to buy bitcoin when it reaches high values.

2011 seen a grounded value of 30cent.
    2011 that bubbled to ATH of $32   = 100x

2013 seen a grounded value of $40.
    2013 that bubbled to ATH of $1.2k = 30x

2017 seen a grounded value of $900.
    2017 that bubbled to ATH of $20k = 21x

2021 seen a grounded value of $10k.
    2021 that bubbled to ATH of $75k = 7.5x

lets call this wide gap the "window"
yes the window is getting less multiplier gradually and stablising..

dont expect large 100x windows expect more 2-10x windows
....
you also ended this part of quote with
'when it reaches new high 'values' (facepalm)
'when it reaches new high 'prices' (smiles)

the cycles are not about yearly bears or bulls.. forget about bulls and bears.
bulls and bears are the cattle of fiat inflation markets..

bitcoin is a dairy cow. it stays grounded and as you let it graze(hoard it) you can then milk it(profit) at the end of the day(future)

the cycles are actually based on the halvings. which are ~4 years. and set as a rule in bitcoin to be around that 4 year..

bitcoin is based on code and uses PoW which has costs. so base the cycles and costs on the actual things underlying bitcoin.. code and costs.. forget the market whimsy. the cycles and costs doubling are built into bitcoin via coded rules that dont break

market highs are a totally different creature.. filled with fish (minnows and whales) they can create ripples and waves and tsunami's with the market price

assume you are only watching the periodic lows that are in constant bull
assume the market price above the lows is just the whimsy of speculation, the clouds in the sky, the vapour. and not a value

But this time with all-time lows, things are a little different. It used to be that the previous high became the next low in a new bearish cycle, this time it should have been around 19k, but as we see this time we went lower, so we can say that this regularity has changed.

it was not the case that previous highs becomes instant minimum of he next cycles low..

the 2009-2012 cycle.. seen a ATH of $32.. yet after the 2012 halving. we seen prices below $32

eventually yes as the lows raise you can forget that the market price will ever go to $32 again. but thats like the next cycle over

EG the 2012-2016 cycle did at the start see prices below $32. but the cycles after that dont worry about $32 number anymore

EG the 2016-2020 cycle did see prices below $1.2k. but the cycles after that dont worry about $1.2k number anymore

EG the 2020-2024 cycle did see prices below $20k. but the cycles after that wont worry about $20k number anymore

you will also see this

bitcoins first price discovery was 2010(not 2009). the first cycle started 2010

now each cycle.. is actually of the halvening (first would have been if price discovery began in 2009)
so start of cycle(SOC) +1 year is when the ATH happen
SOC 2010 ATH 2011
SOC 2012 ATH 2013
SOC 2016 ATH 2017
SOC 2020 ATH 2021

this means we may not see prices go over $75k until 2025
but we won see under $20k after 2024

the exception is this though
there might be other ATH inside the same cycles
but playing it safe of keeping expectations rational dont bank on it. treat next ATH as a bonus if before the next cycle begins

[JayJuanGee]

I am still learning in this forum, can only comment. that, the world is like a wheel. those below will go up, and those above will go down. so bitcoin is also like that. even though it continues above it will definitely go down, and if it continues below it will definitely go up later.

Even if there is some truth to what you are saying, that does make a whole hell of a lot of sense  in terms of figuring out where we might be at any point in time and also to relatively assess bitcoin as compared with various other assets and/or currencies.

Even our attempt to describe bitcoin cycles has its limitations because surely historically there have been cycles in bitcoin, and we can look through bitcoin's  history to attempt to explain where bitcoin has been relative to other asset classes, and the cycle remains only part of the explanation and might even lead us to the wrong place if we fail and refuse to account for other dynamics that likely include that bitcoin is a paradigm shifting invention of an asset class that had never existed in history - and there are quite a few people in the world who are still getting used to the idea, so in that sense we cannot even necessarily be sure about how long it might take for various networking effects to grow within the framework of Metcalfe principles and even Gresham law ideas that grown along with increased bitcoin knowledge so that we have continued and ongoing exponential s-curve adoption of bitcoin that contributes to the knowledge and those who are creating and/or participating in the various network effects, as those network effects had been outlined by Trace Mayer around 2014/2015, too.

[franky1]

Even our attempt to describe bitcoin cycles has its limitations because surely historically there have been cycles in bitcoin, and we can look through bitcoin's  history to attempt to explain where bitcoin has been

by adding in more 'dynamics' actually cause confusion

sticking to the basic fundamentals helps.
bitcoin is a 4 year cycle due to the halving events

THEN seeing other events that occur because of it then helps to explain other things.

EG a year after price discovery GPU mining become the main mining
method which stemmed the 2011 increase due to mining cost increases
(along with other social events spurring the hype)

2013 asics became the main mining mechanism.

2017 a large change in the next gen asics(s9 became the main popular asic
2021 the next gen asic S19 become the main popular mining
(along with other social events spurring the hype)..
...
there are other events too in between those, but to a lesser extent
like inside the halving years themselves, where you see the price at start of year be atleast half that of end of year

2012 ranged from $5 - $40
2016 ranged from $450 - $900
2020 ranged from $7.5k - $25k
which shows inside the halving year the market also doubles+ due to the halving

but if you take away all the speculative sentiment of temporary movement between the main events. and only stick to ground level of the lows and not even consider the highs in regards to VALUE

it becomes clear

however other coins.. have lost their cycles
lets use ethereum
splitting off from its 'classic' start. and then later again merging into PoS has broke ethereum value from any concept of cyclical pattern

ethereum half a year ago had a good supported value (via mining costs(cheapest way to get ethereum on the planet) of ~$700+ and the markets were $1.5k at the time.
then due to PoS the underlying cost went massively down to $40, meaning that ethereum is no longer cheapish at a ~2x of value. but instead is a premium speculated bubble at a 30x of value

its concepts of sticking to rules and costs has gone out the window. how people store it has changed with its custodial staking where large millions of coins can be ripped away from custodians if more changes are made.

ethereum have broke any underlying value pattern or security support they had.
and now are just blindly speculating at a premium via just shadow tracing bitcoin price movements.
alot of people think ethereum "value" is in its utility as a base coin for other tokens.. and yet if the other token market was actually utilitised instead of its fake sales due to the seller selling to himself to pretend his token is worth high amount.. the ethereum market if it has utility would have it own price sentiments that peak and dip independently and differently to the bitcoin market due to utility sentiment changes of the day.. and not be a shadow trace market of bitcoins price wiggles

in short any altcoin which when looking at the price movements show signs of just shadow tracing a main coin.. proves the altcoin has not independant price sentiment of demand/utility need

[JayJuanGee]

Even our attempt to describe bitcoin cycles has its limitations because surely historically there have been cycles in bitcoin, and we can look through bitcoin's  history to attempt to explain where bitcoin has been

by adding in more 'dynamics' actually cause confusion

I still like my way of describing it better.

 

And sure, of course, the amount of detail, description and going beyond the basics will depend on the audience.. Sometimes people are not ready for more detailed explanations, and there are going to be frameworks that are more understandable to some people versus others depending on their own personal experiences and even their receptiveness to learning about the topic.

[Sayeds56]

Even our attempt to describe bitcoin cycles has its limitations because surely historically there have been cycles in bitcoin, and we can look through bitcoin's  history to attempt to explain where bitcoin has been

by adding in more 'dynamics' actually cause confusion

I still like my way of describing it better.

 

And sure, of course, the amount of detail, description and going beyond the basics will depend on the audience.. Sometimes people are not ready for more detailed explanations, and there are going to be frameworks that are more understandable to some people versus others depending on their own personal experiences and even their receptiveness to learning about the topic.

Devil is always in details; it is important to deep dive when you do root cause analysis to reach the bottom of the issue to understand what lies in the bottom. It is true that Bitcoin is cyclical, but we can never predict the length of the bull or bear cycle by simply analyzing the historical data because fundamentals keep changing with the passage of time. We all believe that bear run of Bitcoin will end but when, only time will answer this question.

[Inwestour]

2011 seen a grounded value of 30cent.
    2011 that bubbled to ATH of $32   = 100x

2013 seen a grounded value of $40.
    2013 that bubbled to ATH of $1.2k = 30x

2017 seen a grounded value of $900.
    2017 that bubbled to ATH of $20k = 21x

2021 seen a grounded value of $10k.
    2021 that bubbled to ATH of $75k = 7.5x

this means we may not see prices go over $75k until 2025
but we won see under $20k after 2024

the exception is this though
there might be other ATH inside the same cycles
but playing it safe of keeping expectations rational dont bank on it. treat next ATH as a bonus if before the next cycle begins

Perhaps this knowledge is already enough to buy bitcoin at 16k and in the future, in the next cycle, expect to get x3-x5 from your investments. This is excellent result, I don't know what kind of investment could give at least approximate results in terms of profitability. And given the trend that this time Bitcoin won't make x20 or x30 like previous cycles, it's still a very good profit.

[serjent05]

The annual cycle of bitcoin in my opinion is something like this:

2012 and 2013 were bull markets (uptrends)
2014 and 2015 were bear market (downtrend)
2016 and 2017 were bull markets (uptrends)
2018 and 2019 are bear markets (downtrend)
2020 and 2021 will be bullish (uptrend)
2022 and 2023 will be bearish (downtrend)
2024 and 2025 will be bullish (uptrend)

and that's just my opinion, so I've never been afraid of a bitcoin drop and I consider this drop a big discount that shouldn't be wasted, and DCA is the best choice to increase buying during a downtrend.

I do have the same opinion, looking at the previous history, the coming 2023 will possibly be the transition of cycles, so we might see the recent cycle end at a bearish market and transition to the next cycle as a bearish market.  From that that the market will still be bearish until the last quarter of 2023 and will start to change sentiment in the 1st quarter of 2024.  The sentiment will be fully bullish possibly a month before the halving then will continue till 2025 when a new ATH will be possibly recorded.

[Sayeds56]

2011 seen a grounded value of 30cent.
    2011 that bubbled to ATH of $32   = 100x

2013 seen a grounded value of $40.
    2013 that bubbled to ATH of $1.2k = 30x

2017 seen a grounded value of $900.
    2017 that bubbled to ATH of $20k = 21x

2021 seen a grounded value of $10k.
    2021 that bubbled to ATH of $75k = 7.5x

this means we may not see prices go over $75k until 2025
but we won see under $20k after 2024

the exception is this though
there might be other ATH inside the same cycles
but playing it safe of keeping expectations rational dont bank on it. treat next ATH as a bonus if before the next cycle begins

Perhaps this knowledge is already enough to buy bitcoin at 16k and in the future, in the next cycle, expect to get x3-x5 from your investments. This is excellent result, I don't know what kind of investment could give at least approximate results in terms of profitability. And given the trend that this time Bitcoin won't make x20 or x30 like previous cycles, it's still a very good profit.

Thanks for sharing your valued analysis which seems realistic in the context of current market situation & is certainly helpful for long term investors to take buying position in Bitcoin. Please also share your thoughts about the likely scenario if FED pauses interest rate increase because CPI is declining, and I think this trend may continue for coming months. Consecutive increase in interest rates has slowed down economic activity worldwide, it needs a stimulant to initiate recovery process.

[LegendaryK]

Just another reminder that the bitcoin market is cyclical, and everything that we are seeing with bitcoin now has already happened before and the necessary lessons should be learned from this:

There is no eternal bull run, just like there is no eternal bearish trend, so a dump is always followed by a pump. This was well shown to us by the cycles of 2014 and 2018. Now the market is dominated by bears, but sooner or later it will end and recovery and growth will begin:

The low price of bitcoin is not a reason for panic and concern. This is the rare opportunity to buy cheap bitcoins. If you miss this moment now, then next time it may not be presented very soon.

A correction is a time to buy, not to sell. Don't worry - just HODL (or buy more).

Your Statements are based on Speculation.

Past Performance does not Guarantee Future Profit.

Just because btc recovered in prior cycles is no guarantee it happens again.
One Big Difference from the prior cycles is Venture Capital was insanely high,
now Venture Capital is drying up , due to the baby boomers moving into safer investments for retirement.
So that is a huge difference that many here may pay for not noticing in this cycle.
IF BTC was holding like in the past, $20k should have stayed the bottom, as the $15k btc proves today, all bets are off for the next cycles,
there is no real bottom and no future guarantee of price increase verses fiat.
BTC Price Spike or BTC Price Collapse, either is possible in the coming years.

Welcome to the Crypto Thunderdome,
not everyone will survive.

[Sayeds56]

Your Statements are based on Speculation.

My statements are based on the historical chart of bitcoin and its cycles, your statements are not based on anything, they are built on some general phrases that can be glued to any asset.

Just because btc recovered in prior cycles is no guarantee it happens again.

You will tell it when this formation stops working (and it continues to work to this day). Back in September 2021, I wrote that the next year would most likely be bearish and there would be no continuation of the bullrun. And I, as arguments, were given the same arguments that what happened before does not guarantee that it will happen again. As a result, 14 months have passed and 2022 turned out to be 100% bearish, which confirmed my predictions that the Bitcoin market is cyclical.

Given the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, should we expect that current bear run is not going to end anytime soon and may even continue in 2023 but what will be the likely scenario if crude oil price starts coming down (which is a major economic input & its price is stable around$80 since more than a month) and consequently business activity picks up. I think if it happens then current bear run will end & Bitcoin will enter in stabilization phase.  

[Ucy]

Just another reminder that the bitcoin market is cyclical, and everything that we are seeing with bitcoin now has already happened before and the necessary lessons should be learned from this:

There is no eternal bull run, just like there is no eternal bearish trend, so a dump is always followed by a pump. This was well shown to us by the cycles of 2014 and 2018. Now the market is dominated by bears, but sooner or later it will end and recovery and growth will begin:


The low price of bitcoin is not a reason for panic and concern. This is the rare opportunity to buy cheap bitcoins. If you miss this moment now, then next time it may not be presented very soon.

A correction is a time to buy, not to sell. Don't worry - just HODL (or buy more).

In regards to the bolded, it's important to note that there could be multiple dumps before a pump/pumps. A dump followed by pump is not always guaranteed

To the second bolded, better to buy whenever there are significant corrections. And don't buy what you can't afford to risk so you don't panic when things arent going your way. Too much risk makes people panic when things are going according to plan.



The important thing is to always contribute something good and useful (not necessarily money) to the Bitcoin system if you want your investment to keep increasing in values.  

[Gallar]

Of course panic always haunts, especially among beginners who have just entered the world of crypto/bitcoin.
it's a natural thing among beginners, because many beginners start investing using borrowed money or hot money.
but for beginners it is true that this is the right time to invest, don't come when you go up and go when you go down.

[dlightag]

Every business has a session, in times of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency marketplace is the session to buy and buy and get home and be happy, something good we happen soon or later, while selling is not a good option base on the current price of bitcoin, while sell and get lost and also regret later when the market set as bull run. That is how i lost it in last bull run. and also thanks for a great community of these forum for me to be here, while learning more about bitcoin invest, which is Buy at low and have patient is the key.  

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

Basically, short-term investors who are counting on a quick profit by investing in bitcoin, or market tourists who have no investment strategy at all and evaluate the market situation only within the current day, without having a long-term view, panic.

They are not actual investors that make them panic. I think it is more correct to call them as speculators who hop on the boat when they see opportunities but don't analyze enough about risk. Therefore if risk is higher than opportunity, they will be panic.

Those who invest in bitcoin for years, or even a decade, will never panic. If I know that I bought bitcoin at $15,600 and will sell it only after 5 years (for example), then it doesn’t matter to me at all what pumps and dumps are happening on the market. Let traders worry about this, investors do not pay attention to this.

Real investors have reasons to spend money and they have reasons to be calm when market has big red candle. How many years they are in the market are helpful for them to avoid panic too. Because with real experience, they will know how the market works and how their mentality can be affected in bear and bull market. They understand by themselves how their mind will be attacked negatively by bear market, bad news and fud.

[Sayeds56]

To the second bolded, better to buy whenever there are significant corrections. And don't buy what you can't afford to risk so you don't panic when things arent going your way. Too much risk makes people panic when things are going according to plan.

Basically, short-term investors who are counting on a quick profit by investing in bitcoin, or market tourists who have no investment strategy at all and evaluate the market situation only within the current day, without having a long-term view, panic. Those who invest in bitcoin for years, or even a decade, will never panic. If I know that I bought bitcoin at $15,600 and will sell it only after 5 years (for example), then it doesn’t matter to me at all what pumps and dumps are happening on the market. Let traders worry about this, investors do not pay attention to this.

I think day traders hardly make any profit in bear market, usually they lose more than what they gain but they do make good profit in bull market with some basic knowledge/skills of technical indicators those are helpful to make right decision of entry and exit. when Bitcoin journey is upwards, and volatility is not so high as are witnessing now. In my opinion, the best strategy to make money in Bitcoin market is to buy when everybody is selling and sell when everybody is buying.