BTC price consolidation at $20k for 4 months

[takuma sato]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

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This does not change that history will repeats itself. If bitcoin price decrease, it can not go down more $10000 and this has nothing to do with the Russia and Ukraine war. The time is coming when the bear market would finally be over which would be followed by another bull run. Anything can happen this time, the price of bitcoin may decrease further, or maybe not, but we should prepare if it decreases. If any further significant decrease occur, this would significantly result to a bull run that may increase the price of bitcoin to over $30000 again.

[Upgrade00]

Market conditions affect all assets similarly, this does not mean there is a correlation between assets or they need to be decoupled, it just means that they are reacting to the current market actions, negatively or positively.

2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

I find this point ironic. Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets of the last decade, not just during low interest rates.

[Swordsoffreedom]

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up

It is possible that bitcoin and the entire financial market will be pumped if this news happens, but there is no guarantee that bitcoin will stay high and the uptrend season will come immediately. You should remember that we are still in bear season and the bear cycle lasts 4 years, and another thing is that we entered a bear market before the war so the current drop in prices is only partially affected by the war, the main cause is still in the yearly bear cycle.

2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

I think there is no relevance here, simply because when inflation occurs, risky assets will all be affected and decrease in price because of dumping.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

The one thing you seams to forget. Market does not estimates present. It always tries to calcualate 1 year ahead. Its not that everything bad needs to stop and we have to have flow of good news to see a bottom. Bottom will be 1 year before first good news from economy. Same was in 2008. The biggest amount of bad news was right on the market bottom. So if now "macroeconomic view looks like trash" it doesnt mean we have to go anymore lower.

Also bitcoin reached ATH 3 month before SP500. Its possible that bitcoin will reach the bottom 3 months before SP500 which will reach the bottom 1 year before first good news from economy.

Also fiats are going down at a rate >10% per year so sooner or later fiat denominated assets needs to stop falling. Its not regular recession. Its stagflation. Like in 1970-1980.

[Lucius]

This does not change that history will repeats itself. If bitcoin price decrease, it can not go down more $10000 and this has nothing to do with the Russia and Ukraine war.

This is only an assumption, the probability that it will happen is significant, but it is not a solid fact that should be counted on. The majority believe in the next halving and the bull run that will follow after that simply because that is the only thing that has a very clear point in the future in the sense that the halving will happen, but you should always be careful because no one can predict the future.

I also think that it is not realistic to expect that the price of BTC can go below $10k, but who thought that it would be this low today after it almost touched $70k? Being prepared for something completely unexpected is something that everyone should keep in mind, because that way there would be much less panic that often results in financial loss for most people who invest their money thinking that profit is assured.

As for the war, I would say that it affects everything, especially the markets in Europe, which suffer the most. The uncertainty caused by the war certainly affects the decisions of people who are less willing to make any risky investments, and when we talk about the EU area, it is about 500 million people who are generally people with considerable purchasing power. First they were hit by inflation, and then a bloody war broke out in their neighboring yard, which in any case is very bad for any business, unless you produce weapons and similar war supplies.

[jackg]

We'll probably look back on bitcoin surviving these times and realise how strong it actually is..

1. The only way I see the Russia-ukraine problem resolving itself fairly quickly is if at least one of those countries goes into civil war (it's more likely to be Russia due to the lack of democracy - but it's also likely Russia can remain stable with a bit of restructuring - or nothing).

2. Interest rates probably need to go down for everything bitcoin related to improve for a fast return to higher prices. That's unlikely to happen, a drop to 4% is predicted by 2022 but that's long enough away that we'll see more stagnation internationally.

[Franctoshi]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

This is a sign of strength for Bitcoin after all the events that is happening around the world and Bitcoin is able to maintain this price level 19k-20k after that Euro and Great British pounds crash but Bitcoin is able to absorb all the pressure (rate hikes) and too 20k -21k is the average price of Bitcoin's if using a 4 years simple moving average, and lastly coupled with the fact that 20k is previous all time highs , hence this results to a lot of consolidation and makes Bitcoin continue to move sideways in this zone.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up

Could be, but I guess if you are talking about prices going up and seeing a bull run? I doubt that, maybe we can go as high as $30k++. But we are still in the bearish trend, unless the news of the war ending will happen right after the bitcoin halving then yeah. But it makes me think now, if we will have a massive bull in 2024, this could be one news that will help it pushes to what we all have been imaging the price, $100k++

[OgNasty]

We'll probably look back on bitcoin surviving these times and realise how strong it actually is..

I definitely agree.  I'm already surprised at how strong it is.  I would have figured we'd be around $12K by now if I were making a prediction a year ago (which if you're in my slack group you would have known when I was contemplating betting people we'd hit $10K before $100K as we were touching all time highs). 

Looking back, we'll probably compare Bitcoin to the European countries' fiat currencies that fell like a stone during the current crisis.  Definitely impressive performance from Bitcoin given the state of things, but I think we have another 9 months or so of trouble before we're out of the woods.

[Zanab247]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june.

Yes, because the time for investors to experience bear season in the crypto market has come, because during the pandemic that affected many assets in the countries didn't affect Bitcoin investors. I guess, this is a sign that bull season will be longer than this bear season that just completed 4 months and some days in the community for investors to continue holding until the price increase to $50k before they can sell to make a good profits.

[Dave1]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up
2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

Well we can only tell if the Russia-Ukraine is over, so far it has escalated. I'm not telling if it will have a big impact on the financial market when the war is over, but for sure, the market now is in recession.

I guess there are smart investors who are putting their money on bitcoin and make it as a store of value. But majority of investors are still waiting at the background and wanted to see if everything has settled down before they will decided to invest or not.

[Baofeng]

BTC has been hanging on the $20k area for 4 months now since early june. The longer the consolidation on a price range, the bigger the capitulation can be if it breaks to the downside.. macroeconomic view looks like trash. BTC still hasn't decoupled from the SP500, and the SP500 is still 700 points away from pre-covid printing measures which to me it means the price is still overvalued, which in turn means BTC will follow a sub $20k capitulation. The only 2 scenarios I see where we pump:

Hmm, as for me if we are talking about bitcoin, then we have seen the capitulation already when we go $17k, that is way below the precious all time high we hit in 2017.

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up

Still 50/50 to me, if we suddenly hear the news that Putin surrendered, then maybe the price will go up. But if the war resolved through other means like Russia being invaded by coalition forces then the price could still tank despite the Russian government government.

2) That BTC decouples from the SP500 during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

For me, I'm not seeing bitcoin decoupling to any traditional market.

[Husires]

I remember that the only case in which Bitcoin united with all investments was when the Corona pandemic was announced, and after that all attempts to link the schemes are an attempt to twist the facts.

the best guess is that the Third World War is the only variable that will change the price sharply, other than that, I don't think we will see a bottom beyond 17 thousand dollars.

[el kaka22]

I have to say we have been here for long enough and it would be better if we could end up with something much bigger soon enough. It reached the peak ATH price last year around these days, which means it has been either going down, or not going up for the past 1 year, and that is a long enough period to stay low.

It is high time that we start climbing back up again and that would be great, but of course that would require us to rally and in order to do that we need everyone. It means there need to be something to hype, ETH merge was something to hype and people did not even care about that, so I do not know what we can do to rally everyone together for a bull run.

[jrrsparkles]

.... during this situation and actually starts acting as a store of value and not just a good investment during low interest rates

I really want this to happen as a cryptocurrency enthusiast but it is going to happen anytime possible???

Not really in the near future, even if you take the last bearish days the price hit rock bottom of $3000 and managed to hit 65k which no one really expected do BTC never stop giving the surprises which beyond our expectations.

#HODL

[Oasisman]

1) The Russia-Ukraine insanity is resolved. You wake up with the good news at any given day, prices go up

Might as well remove this scenario as it is close to impossible atm.
Russian - Ukrain war went silent for a few days and then boom another bomb dropped in Ukrainan soil. There's no chance for an "instant resolution" of this conflict.
We would not hope for Russia and Ukraine to make peace because we can see an opportunity for Btc to pump, but we should hope the conflict would end, because we do not know how close Putin is in using his nuclear weapon.

[adaseb]

Yes this seems like a repeat of nov 2018. Basically extremely tight range. Most days it stays well within $1000 range from top to bottom. Very low volume.

The OI is actually going up. So it’s going to explode. However which way is the question. Best to play this with some options since it’s anyone’s guess where it will go.

[Yatsan]

Yes this seems like a repeat of nov 2018. Basically extremely tight range. Most days it stays well within $1000 range from top to bottom. Very low volume.

The OI is actually going up. So it’s going to explode. However which way is the question. Best to play this with some options since it’s anyone’s guess where it will go.

In my persoective, the current situation simply shows how unpredictable this industry is. If we would base from the calendar and the past, there should already be an uprise pressure with market price of cryptos because of the season, but what happened is the other way around. Cryptos are prone from factors such as what we are experiencing right now wherein economic crisis is a problem to many countries around the globe which reflects as well in this industry. Whether it will go up before this year end or not, it would be surely hard to tell. The best thing we can do is to patiently wait and cope with market behavior.

[1miau]

Bitcoin really likes his range around 20k. 
Even bad inflation news from today have only caused a very temporary setback and now, we are even at higher prices compared to yesterday.
Next big news from regular markets will be Fed's announcement about rate hikes on November 1st.

My prediction is still bearish until end of the year with limited downside potential. On the other side, Bitcoin's recovery from today is bad news for bears...