Could 17.5k BTC actually be 13-14k pre-inflation?

[Abiky]

the war is just the excuse of world wide inflation

take energy.
here in the UK we have nuclear power and our oil/gas fuels are in the north sea. our energy companies increased its prices because its stuck with selling them on the global market order sheet(international price but even though the energy stayed local). but that just means that it profited HUGELY

inflation has been opportunistic
growth was held down for a decade, payrises of the lower wages did not move much so suddenly now there is a war politicians across the planet can hike things up in price and point the finger at "war"

that said
this seasons bitcoin prices still buy more goods than the last relative low before the last years ATH

yep before the last ATH the low was in 2020 of ~$4k

bitcoin in 2022 still at its lowest for 2022 stil buys more goods and services than 2020 bitcoin low

You can see how rising inflation rates benefits more the wealthy and politicians than ordinary people. If world governments would've wanted the war to end quickly, they would've done something already. It's not about supplying weapons and economic aid to Ukraine, but rather joining the war against Russia itself. While Ukraine seems to be winning, the war is still far reaching an end anytime soon. I don't think inflation will ease until the war is over. BTC's price is being severely affected because of central banks' rising interest rates.

At least, they won't be doing this forever. As you've said, Bitcoin is still worth a lot more than its low of $4k back in 2020. With Fiat currencies becoming stronger, it makes sense Bitcoin would have a lower price than usual. Just wait until this is all over, and Bitcoin will be back on track towards $100k and above. Who knows what the future holds for the cryptocurrency? Just my opinion

[Sayeds56]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Possible, but what is the point of thinking it that way? I mean prices is going down, we are in the bear market, it went from $69k to $17.5 or whatever price you think. So that's basically what happened in a long hard and grind bear market.

We will definitely have to bottom in this cycle, right now it's $17.5k. Maybe next year when the market is still in the negative in could be in $13k-$14k like your price pre-inflation, but it doesn't mean anything to bitcoin investors.

If I am understanding you correctly, you are trying to corelate value of Bitcoin with rising inflation. Since Bitcoin is deflationary asset, its price should have gone up with rising inflation because inflation reduces the value of fiat currency & increases price of commodities like Gold & silver but in fact it didn't happen and Bitcoin corelated itself with US stock market since inflation started rising. Unfortunately, markets are mostly driven by sentiments (greed & Fear) & rarely work on logic.

[LegendaryK]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Nope,
BTC is in the actual mid $15K today,
maybe $10k next week,
and $5k the week after.

Energy costs and lack of venture capital is going to put a hurting on BTC price verse fiat in 2023.  

[franky1]

You can see how rising inflation rates benefits more the wealthy and politicians than ordinary people. If world governments would've wanted the war to end quickly, they would've done something already. It's not about supplying weapons and economic aid to Ukraine, but rather joining the war against Russia itself. While Ukraine seems to be winning, the war is still far reaching an end anytime soon. I don't think inflation will ease until the war is over. BTC's price is being severely affected because of central banks' rising interest rates.

At least, they won't be doing this forever. As you've said, Bitcoin is still worth a lot more than its low of $4k back in 2020. With Fiat currencies becoming stronger, it makes sense Bitcoin would have a lower price than usual. Just wait until this is all over, and Bitcoin will be back on track towards $100k and above. Who knows what the future holds for the cryptocurrency? Just my opinion

in refards to the ukraine war..
since 2014.. nato wanted ukraine in the euro/nato brotherhod but didnt want the eastern par.. due to russia.

so whe russia wanted the eastern part. those to entities had similar wants..
nato/euro isnt siding with russia. but do see the banefits of russia taking the eastern side as a independant state  thats not ukraine nor russia but named as a buffer state to separate ukraine/euro away from proper russia

as for inflation..
when somone who earns $1m a year gets a 10% pat rise that is $100k

when someone on $20k gets only a £2k rise

food and heating rises by $2k a year atleast. meaning the min wage dont get any more income:costs benefit. yet the rich dont eat more food or warm more people in their house so the rich gain a $98l payrise

thus yes the rich love inflation. their income climbs by ALOT more than their daily life costs of the basics.

..
as for bitcoin

forget the ATH vs low where the low is the scary thing.
pretend the ATH never happen and look at a ground level of lows as a value indicator. bitcoin lows have been raising all the time periodically

EG                                                     _   _
                                                        /  \/  \_
                                     /!         __/\/        2022 low
                                __/  !____/  2020 low
          /|    ________/      2018 low
       _/  |_/         2016 low
___/      2014 low
2012 low

take each low of each 2 year
12.14.16.18.20.22

google the price of bread or a tin of beans or an every day product someone needs to buy regular for those years. and you will notice you can buy more with bitcoin every time