Could 17.5k BTC actually be 13-14k pre-inflation?

[necudo]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

[1715417004]

1715417004

[Z-tight]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value

Inflation does not cause things to go up in value, prices may have gone up but not their value, inflation does the opposite, and that is to make things like paper money to lose their value.

do you think that 17.5k (which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Your understanding of inflation is skewed and so the rest of the post is inaccurate, but by the way bitcoin is a deflationary asset, and fiat would be a better option for pre and current inflation comparison and analysis.

[hatshepsut93]

Does it even matter? Everything changes its value. With the recent inflation, some goods went up by 20%, some by 50% and some even became cheaper. It's also very different from country to country. And Bitcoin market recently reacted negatively to inflation, rather than being a hedge against it, probably because Bitcoin is more of an asset for "good" times rather than "bad" times.

[jackg]

It could be but I don't think it makes a difference to.much except thinking out loud.

A lot of people look at asset values without the scope of inflation so they'll probably see bitcoins value being similar to when it was last at 17.5k (before the rallies to 60k).

The other issue with this is the s&p500 and a lot of other assets are on sale (/cheaper) in terms of both inflation and current valuations compared to the past.

[pooya87]

For what you said to make sense you first have to prove why you think bottom should have been $13k-$14k and then you should prove why bitcoin price has to change with inflation?
Not to mention that we are talking on a global scale not local so which country are you talking about and why do you think that has to be the only factor affecting bitcoin price? Right now we have inflation that goes from 1% all the way to above 100% (Turkey for example is almost at 90% inflation).

[uneng]

I believe you are right on your assumption, because minimum wage has been raised about 20% in my country on the last 2 years, what means the costs of everything have been raised on the same proportion.

For bitcoin to fight inflation back it can't remain stable in price. It has to be constantly rising to compensate the losses imposed on us by fiat.

Unfortunatelly, that is not what we are seeing right now, but I hope as soon as the market enters a new phase bitcoin is going to compensate all the devaluations faced during the last years in the traditional fiat economy with wide advantage for holders.

[rin24]

Judging from past and using percentages in loss, I do not think price will go lower, this should be the bottom and it is already for a few months pretty stable, unless nothing crazy will happen in near future ~19k +- will be the lowest price

[piebeyb]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

people prefer to wait to buy it under $15k, even though I often say that yesterday's $17.5k was the lowest point of the bitcoin price after a while we always held close to the price of $19k and $20k, do people think rich people and companies that having invested in bitcoin this will let the price drop below it again, that's unlikely, so taking the moment it's right to buy it cheap at the current price before the train goes fast and leaves you

[Beparanf]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

You view inflation the wrong way. Inflation affects the buy power of dollars which makes the commodity higher in USD amount since the supply of USD is continuously increasing. BiTcoin is not directly affected by inflation since it’s value is based on speculation and no one can set the price to controls it. It’s absurd to incorporate the effect of inflation to Bitcoin because it has a separate to the global economy due to its deflationary feature.

Maybe you right about the bottom but it will jot adjust base on inflation but rather on people speculation on how they view Bitcoin value.

[Findingnemo]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Bitcoin doesn't get affected by the inflation and one bitcoin is equal to one bitcoin all the time, the price calculation you mentioned is very generic with no evidence but as per the official inflation of US report it isn't 20% so it maybe 17K instead of 17.5K that's it.

But here something we should know why we have to face the inflation and what it does good for the people which is completely nothing all we face is losing the buying power of our savings and being slave for lifetime due to this fiat inflation trap.

[aylabadia05]

The impact felt by various groups due to inflation is quite pronounced. For example, the result of inflation is an increase in the price of goods, people's income is reduced and purchasing power will also decrease if we look at it based on the Customer Price Index (CPI). That's the general picture of Inflation.

Regarding what you mean, inflation has nothing to do with the value of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is different from fiat currency whose value can change due to inflation. While Bitcoin will not change in value even though the world is experiencing high inflation.

Maybe you will find a sentence or statement that says 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

May be useful.

[The Cryptovator]

It's not only hard to predict but also impossible. We have seen a couple of predictions around social media which are about 13-14K. Also, some prediction Bitcoin would reach 100K by next year. So hard to even believe the prediction. The world facing huge inflation lately due to many reasons and one of them is war. If it doesn't stop then we may see a downtrend, to be honest. Very rarely is good news coming out lately where we are hopeless.

[blockman]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

I get the idea of what you're trying to ask but you could do all the calculations let's take the numbers as is what it is. The matter of inflation still relies on the purchasing power that we've got and if you ever convert the bitcoin that you have and that's how you think of matter with how much you've got after selling bitcoin at the current rate. But it isn't a big matter at all to consider since we're all just speculating and trying to look at the perspective in relation to inflation and bitcoin's current price.

[yudi09]

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.
Don't look at Bitcoin's lows and highs, but focus on value.
Fiat will not guarantee value when the country's economy is struggling.

[pooya87]

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.

There is two problems with this which is why price isn't yet rising.
Many people still don't know about bitcoin or still believe the FUD they've been fed over the years so they stay away from the only reliable hedge against inflation.

The other problem is that people invest their money if they face small inflation but in most countries like in Europe we have much bigger than normal inflation and even hyperinflation. Not to mention that in many cases inflation is mixed with recession like in US which means people don't have enough money for their regular expenses let alone have anything left for investment.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

First thing I will like to advise here is to stop the comparison of bitcoin to inflation, inflation is an economic consequence of drop in fiat economy performance considering all other economic indication  for goods and services productivity, bitcoin works only by the supply and demand in it limited capacity and the running of bitcoin is not on an inflation base, it have nothing to drop by with value it represents, that's why you see many having the entire misconception of bitcoin volatility to drop in value whenever it's running bear which is wrong, fiat increases in price and not value while bitcoin increases in both value and price, so this present bear is a preparation to gain momentum for the next bullrun approaching.

[yudi09]

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.

There is two problems with this which is why price isn't yet rising.
Many people still don't know about bitcoin or still believe the FUD they've been fed over the years so they stay away from the only reliable hedge against inflation.

-

Can only nod his head while saying yes that most do not understand about Bitcoin so it can be influenced by an explanation that is not necessarily true or FUD.

Related to this, it can happen because of the length of time they know Bitcoin. If those who are very young in Bitcoin, are vulnerable to FUD. But if those who are familiar with Bitcoin with a minimum duration of more than 3 years, I think they can distinguish and understand how to hedge.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Here are some reasons:

• Most bitcoin users don't see it as a safe haven that can resist inflation if held properly, but as a speculative asset.
• Production doesn't go well.
• At times like this, people prefer to spend on necessary products like food.
• And of course, weak hands.

[ajiz138]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

people prefer to wait to buy it under $15k, even though I often say that yesterday's $17.5k was the lowest point of the bitcoin price after a while we always held close to the price of $19k and $20k, do people think rich people and companies that having invested in bitcoin this will let the price drop below it again, that's unlikely, so taking the moment it's right to buy it cheap at the current price before the train goes fast and leaves you

Because of that bitcoin is not the same as fiat so it is not affected by inflation I think a lot of people are waiting for low prices because there is quite high inflation and this is hoping for Bitcoin prices I don't think that will happen even though many say the low point is $15k and it is always waiting for those who want it, so I won't wait for the uncertain but with $19k it's a good point to buy now don't wait for a forecast that may not happen.
Buy it and HOLD it.

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.
Don't look at Bitcoin's lows and highs, but focus on value.
Fiat will not guarantee value when the country's economy is struggling.

We have already felt how the price of goods has gone up because the inflation that continues to rise is enough to trigger the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to some sources, resulting in several problems, so it is inevitable that all will feel the same impact, so the value of fiat could be decreased because of the inflation, so it is true that we have to choose Bitcoin as an asset to invest there this will even be my hedge in the future for several years which is expected to be high.

[Abiky]

Does it even matter? Everything changes its value. With the recent inflation, some goods went up by 20%, some by 50% and some even became cheaper. It's also very different from country to country. And Bitcoin market recently reacted negatively to inflation, rather than being a hedge against it, probably because Bitcoin is more of an asset for "good" times rather than "bad" times.

Bitcoin went down during inflation times because people often view it as an investment than a currency. You can see why Bitcoin has been moving in correlation with the stock market lately. When tech stocks go down, the same happens to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being traded on the market today. The FED's monetary policy (rising interest rates) has made matters worse, as Bitcoin struggles to get past $20k per coin.

I hope the day comes when Bitcoin becomes independent from real world events, so it could prove its real value proposition as sound money for the unbanked. That means using Bitcoin without ever needing to know its price in Fiat terms. 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin, right? Who knows what the future holds for Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional Fiat currencies? Just my opinion