The world’s baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years

[Smartprofit]

A few words about what many do not like - automation and robotization of production. I often hear that "she is to blame for the fact that we were left without work." Today, automation in 99% replaces, not the most qualified, manual labor. Here's how the post above - about cutting blanks for shoes.
But people do not understand that this is a NATURAL process!
Mankind has already passed it a huge number of times. The first lifting machines - dampened the demand for primitive physical strength and a huge number of people. The first ICEs - replaced horse teams and removed almost completely a whole layer of the economy - horse breeding, forging, and others related to this process. That is what is happening now. But there are many people who, realizing the coming changes, have prepared - trained, invested, changed jobs ... No offense - but people more often choose the path of complaining and suffering about absolutely simple events and expected things, but they don’t want to do anything to change themselves, and don't suffer.

Perhaps in the future we will see that a slave system has been established on planet Earth.  

At the same time, people (of the Homo sapiens type) became the new slave owners, and robots, bots and algorithms became slaves.  

Such a social order may be aimed at the survival and development of mankind as a species.  

For example, science and technology ..

For the development of scientific and technological progress, a huge number of scientists and engineers are needed.  However, there are not enough smart and skilled professionals in these fields to research everything that needs to be studied and researched.  But if every scientist and engineer has a million assistants - neural networks, artificial intelligence, robots, algorithms, bots, etc., then such a specialist will be able to increase his productivity a million times.  

The situation is similar with an industrialist or a farmer.

[franky1]

world birth rate has declined.. but so has CHILD death rate

overall family sizes are still above 2

it was over 4 in the pre modern era.. but then.. we didnt have hospital care back then. so the death rate was high and life span was low

when it comes to "how many people are over 60yo"
comparing it to 100 years ago. there will be more retiree's/pensioners in 50-100 years time.. meaning the labour force is fine

[DrBeer]

Perhaps in the future we will see that a slave system has been established on planet Earth.

At the same time, people (of the Homo sapiens type) became the new slave owners, and robots, bots and algorithms became slaves.

Such a social order may be aimed at the survival and development of mankind as a species.

For example, science and technology ..

For the development of scientific and technological progress, a huge number of scientists and engineers are needed. However, there are not enough smart and skilled professionals in these fields to research everything that needs to be studied and researched. But if every scientist and engineer has a million assistants - neural networks, artificial intelligence, robots, algorithms, bots, etc., then such a specialist will be able to increase his productivity a million times.

The situation is similar to an industrialist or a farmer.

Let's just say, I don't see a LACK of scientists now, I see a lack of knowledge and technologies to solve current and future tasks and problems. And this is the transition from quantity to quality. It's like a popular saying - if one woman can bear a child in 9 months, this does not mean that 9 women will give birth to a child in 1 month.
But technology and knowledge, they are a derivative of the quality of education, the teaching materials used, and the technical base.
In addition, look at today's world - neural networks, AI, ultra-fast computing - all this is becoming the strongest assistant to today's scientists and inventors. And this gives results faster than giving birth, growing up, educating and educating a person, and getting an excellent scientist. This is 20-30 years, and technologists allow you to get the result already in 1-2-3 years ... Therefore, I will assume that there will be a qualitative migration of quantity.

[justdimin]

Perhaps in the future we will see that a slave system has been established on planet Earth.  

At the same time, people (of the Homo sapiens type) became the new slave owners, and robots, bots and algorithms became slaves.  

Such a social order may be aimed at the survival and development of mankind as a species.  

For example, science and technology ..

For the development of scientific and technological progress, a huge number of scientists and engineers are needed.  However, there are not enough smart and skilled professionals in these fields to research everything that needs to be studied and researched.  But if every scientist and engineer has a million assistants - neural networks, artificial intelligence, robots, algorithms, bots, etc., then such a specialist will be able to increase his productivity a million times.  

The situation is similar with an industrialist or a farmer.

Slave system is not really "gone" if you ask me. I am gladfully out of the regular 9-5 work life, I live a great life. But, I see my friends and my friends are living a life that is bound by shackles of our economic system.

If you want to quit your job, which many still do, you have to face starvation and bankruptcy if you fail to find a job. That is why it's clear that we shouldn't really be focusing on doing anything crazy like quitting without finding a job but still some do. Others, people who are afraid that they can't find a job, ends up with a trouble such as working at a job they hate and spending 1/3 of their life just so they can survive.

[franky1]

the jobs market is not the problem of population numbers

in the 1940's men coming back from war found their wives having jobs and doing things men did. meaning less jobs available for men.

this was not a 50% population growth. this was just giving jobs to non-men

this is why in the 1950's ther were big campaigns, tv shows and stuff trying to set a stereotype that "a womans place is in the kitchen" to try to get women out of the job market and back to being house wives..

disclaimer:
women were never all "housewives" woman for centuries have had jobs and worked. however for centuries women did not enter certain industries such as construction, management. etc but woman did work for centuries in other industries

..
more recently we are seeing a change again. it used to be that people started at the bottom and promoted their way to the top. whereby managers of companies were atleast 40+ year old before getting those titles. now we are seeing fresh graduates becoming CEO's

other things like the working age changed from 55 to now approaching nearly 70. meaning more people staying in the jobs market

and ofcourse efficiency changes of mass production where by many jobs are no longer required. meaning new industries need to be invented to have jobs for those that cant get a job in legacy industries

however this has not helped much.
for instance in the 1950's a retailer would have 1000 customers and 5 staff which is a 1:200 staff:customer ratio

we now have industries where 7000 staff service 350million customers
1:50000 staff:customer ratio(twitter employee:user rate)

[The Sceptical Chymist]

People are so divided and angry and many can't even definitively call themselves a man or a woman--so it's no wonder nobody's fucking.

If I could get my sig-campaign castle going, I'd happily impregnate all the females who'd want to get down with the likes of me.  It'd be like a madhouse, worthy of its own television series.  What is wrong with the youth of today?  I see tons of Youtubers pretty much deriding any sexual jokes or references to sex between partners who might be years apart in age, and in general I get the impression youngsters are kind of prudish.  That's a generalization, of course, but if I'm at least partially correct then my guess is that there's going to be another generation gap; once those 20-somethings get older and finally get that gigantic stick out of their asses they'll figure out what they've been missing.

Fuck 'em if they don't want to breed.

[franky1]

there is not a population problem for jobs

what there is a problem is for taxes and pensions to prop up the mistakes made of the last generations

many pension trusts have been raided and need to be refilled before people reach retirement age and so it needs more tax and pension plan investment to fill those pots..

the next financial crises will be pension pot funding.

..
here is the US Male population by age
00-04   9.62
05-09   10.38
10-14   10.99
15-19   11.02
20-24   10.97
25-29   11.38
30-34   11.67
35-39   11.26
40-44   10.59
45-49   9.88
50-54   10.44
55-59   10.63
60-64   10.33

more people are entering retirement than being born
BUT there are alot in the lower working age NOW of 15-45 that will keep things going..

the FEAR is if in 5 years time the todler rate remains below 10m every time for about 2 decades. then it can affect things for those at the end of their working life

[South Park]

This is why many countries such as Canada are increasing immigration. Because it’s expensive having kids here, nobody is having them. If they are it’s usually 1 kid. Daycare and everything is so expensive nobody can afford kids.

The governments solution is to allow immigration. Which would solve the cheap labor issue but where will these people live? We got a bad housing situation in Canada. It will solve one problem and create another pretty much.

What we are seeing right now with a decrease in the number of children being born is close to what we see in nature, if for example there is a very harsh winter in a particular region of the world then it is to be expected the death rate will be higher and the young and weak animals will die, humans thanks to our ability of foresight can see this ahead of time and we can choose to not reproduce, the costs of raising a kid have grown during the last decades, the salaries have remained flat during that same amount of time, automation and AI are replacing workers and there have being campaigns all over the world for decades about the advantages of a smaller family, and governments cannot undo any of those tendencies, besides we know what they are really worried about, which is the pension system going bankrupt and in order to avoid that they need more people.

[DrBeer]

Slave system is not really "gone" if you ask me. I am gladfully out of the regular 9-5 work life, I live a great life. But, I see my friends and my friends are living a life that is bound by shackles of our economic system.

If you want to quit your job, which many still do, you have to face starvation and bankruptcy if you fail to find a job. That is why it's clear that we shouldn't really be focusing on doing anything crazy like quitting without finding a job but still some do. Others, people who are afraid that they can't find a job, ends up with a trouble such as working at a job they hate and spending 1/3 of their life just so they can survive.

It’s just that you appreciated the reality and made the right decision, congratulations, I’m glad for you from the bottom of my heart. But many live differently. It is in the concept of slave labor, in the civilized world. The problem is that this is how they are brought up from childhood.
For 15 years I have switched to my own earnings (my own business), plus a hired TOP manager with a free work schedule, this is an obligatory condition. I always evaluate work not by how long I did it, how long I was in the office, or how tired I was, but by simple metrics - was the goal achieved? Deadlines/Budgets correspond to the real situation, is the specified quality achieved? ALL ! Everything soatlnoe is not important! Moreover, it works from an employee in the assembly and packaging of some products in boxes, on a conveyor, to the development of corporate systems!

But the majority believes that to work is to be in the office at 9 to 18, lunch according to the schedule. if the boss / owner orders - you have to work .. Because if you get fired - life is over. This is a very terrible ideology that does not give a person freedom and the opportunity to develop and enjoy life!

[tygeade]

Slave system is not really "gone" if you ask me. I am gladfully out of the regular 9-5 work life, I live a great life. But, I see my friends and my friends are living a life that is bound by shackles of our economic system.

If you want to quit your job, which many still do, you have to face starvation and bankruptcy if you fail to find a job. That is why it's clear that we shouldn't really be focusing on doing anything crazy like quitting without finding a job but still some do. Others, people who are afraid that they can't find a job, ends up with a trouble such as working at a job they hate and spending 1/3 of their life just so they can survive.

The amazing beauty of crypto comes alive with this topic. "Slave" idea is still there just like you said, but you and I and many here avoided that slave pit by being in the crypto world. I work in the crypto world, and many people are finding personal success here as well even if not work. That means we can avoid it.

Truth is, too many people around us living in horrible conditions, for cheap labour, and have health problems and also not even make enough for it, whereas we sit on our chair, in front of our PC and make a great income. The baby shortfall will definitely cause trouble eventually, but that doesn't mean that it would really make sense to keep growing neither.

[Furious 7]

Some family programs that require 2 children in one family still have some limitations with that. On the other hand, their thinking has shifted because there are indeed some groups who consider children to be a nuisance and limit their space for movement. On the other hand, the child mortality rate is currently still low. influence that makes this even more difficult to control.

[Ryu_Ar1]

Some family programs that require 2 children in one family still have some limitations with that. On the other hand, their thinking has shifted because there are indeed some groups who consider children to be a nuisance and limit their space for movement. On the other hand, the child mortality rate is currently still low. influence that makes this even more difficult to control.

I agree with this.
The recommendation of 2 better children is still one of the efforts made by the government, including in my current country, and maybe this has happened to several other countries and this is definitely a bit inconvenient.

On the other hand, for some people raising children is also very difficult to do. I've read several articles in the local media that say that Japanese people find raising children difficult so they avoid having children because they are considered a bit of a burden for movement even for workaholics like Japanese people who are disciplined so that the birth rate is a bit there. .

But on the other hand, now it seems that maybe this assumption has shifted back a little when there are already several countries that will pay anyone who wants to have children, like in a small village in Finland who are willing to pay for families who want to have childre
https:/ /www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20191015-finlands-10000-babies.

[Fortify]

I seem to remember economic charts claiming average worker productivity has more than doubled from the 1950s to present day. If productivity continues to increase, the population and worker size needed to sustain construction, maintenance and development projects should shrink. On the opposite end of the spectrum, reports have claimed more than 50% of jobs are vulnerable to automation. People of today are caught somewhere in the middle of both trends. Not the most comfortable or stable place to be. And so perhaps begins the genesis of some of the future crisis we will face.

The unsaid argument would appear to be one where predominantly european nations attempt to produce more children. To maintain a majority in the face of high immigration. Not knowing that many 3rd world countries have families that produce 10 to 20 children as an ideal standard. If residents of european descent nations could produce that many children, I think they could not afford to feed, school and clothe them. The strategy is flawed on a fundamental level.

It is also possible that nations of european descent have lived without real competition or conflict for too long. It has made us soft and unappreciative of the high standards of living we enjoy. Perhaps being forced to compete and struggle for survival will bring the best ouf of us. And that will not necessarily be a bad thing.

There is definitely some sort of labor shortage going on, but we are actually starting to see a recession now so that might be changing too - the amount of spare jobs on offer could shrink rapidly. It's also worth considering the automation it making jobs redundant all the time and certain professions like supermarket checkout staff might eventually be replaced entirely - but that's a good thing as it helps them take on more productive roles in society.

[Flexystar]

Yeah first we divide based on color, then we divided by religion, ethnicity and what not. Now here comes the era of riches and poorer. I think with the time we are going to see rich people moving at one corner of the world, building high security fence around it and passport will be given on the basis of how wealthy you are?

If you cant survive 10 babies at the same time then you can stay away from the get. Have only one kid to keep your generation going on. You can only do that in XYZ location on the earth. If you wan to be on ABC islands then come with good stash of money. 

What's going people, come on we can do better?

[DrBeer]

Yeah first we divide based on color, then we divided by religion, ethnicity and what not. Now here comes the era of riches and poorer. I think with the time we are going to see rich people moving at one corner of the world, building high security fence around it and passport will be given on the basis of how wealthy you are?

If you can't survive 10 babies at the same time then you can stay away from the get. Have only one kid to keep your generation going on. You can only do that in XYZ location on the earth. If you wan to be on ABC islands then come with good stash of money.

What's going people, come on we can do better?

Are you saying that there are no young rich people from Africa?
Or are there no older wealthy Asians? Or are there no rich and successful middle-aged women from Latin America? Or are there no successful Catholics, Christians, followers of Hinduism, Islam, or shamanism?
Skin color, gender and age are the restrictions imposed by the society itself in the country, national traditions, the ruling regime, or the influence of religious fanatics who seized power. There are many more factors, but they are no longer as common or have a high weight, in the "difficulties" that you describe.

[franky1]

im not worried about birth rates.

what i see is the governments are..

less population at the bottom means less people feeding money into tax/pension pots. so if there are more edlerly it means more outgoing money then incoming money when it comes to state/government pensions

i do find some government schemes funny
how they will (steal) asylum seeker kids and put them into foster care and give foster parents money to maintain the kids. yea it boosts the population numbers at the bottom. whilst costing the government more per week than paying out a pension
(foster parents get $400 a week per kid, pensioners get $150)

brexit makes it more difficult to emigrate for pensioners wanting to retire in spain(main stereotype)
yet brexit allows tax havens(freeports) for tax duty on goods imports

raise minimum wage but not tax-free allowance for the poor. but offer a tax free windfall for the energy sector already making billions in profit for the rich

..
i say all this drama about concerns of birth rate is not about future labour markets. less workers=more job opportunities for the rest. meaning less unemployment, also les stress on education class sizes and such