"Prepare for deflation in 2023"

[Wind_FURY]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

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[Husires]

The Federal Reserve is now watching the markets closely, and the continuity of withdrawing liquidity for a long period will accelerate avoiding deflation. It is easy to pump liquidity, but it will make it difficult to reach “healthy” inflation during the current fiscal year.

I am afraid of what is happening in China. The last thing we are waiting to see now is the return of  COVID19 with a good mutation, which means more health restrictions.
And the war that is taking place in Ukraine and the lack of control over it.
The energy crisis and its problems, especially with the European economy.

So we have enough problems to fear deflation

[livingfree]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

We passed on a bear market for an entire year and the cycle that we believe happens is going to set a bull run. That's what we're set to believe and if the same run just as those years, it's going to be a big bull run again.

But as years have seen that there could be a change which is about to come and just as you've said, the bull run might come earlier than expected.

Anyway, if it goes like that then I'm thankful but if not then that's just fine.

[Fortify]

That's obviously a statement you don't hear many people say, but if we review the history of the cabal that decides if they should implement QE or QT, the cabal has the susceptibility to over-adjust in one side causing inflation, and probably deflation after over-tightening. When one act causes an outcome, they over-adjust to stop the outcome, which causes the opposite outcome.

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

I think for most people deflation would be a very welcome and pleasant reversal of the recent inflation over the last couple years. Inflation was getting carried away so a couple years of similar deflation would actually just return some level of stability and hopefully more competition between different companies that will ultimately bring the price down for end buyers. As long as it doesn't turn into stagflation which Japan suffered from for a long time, which is probably unrealistic because they had a lot of economic factors conspiring against them to create that unique situation. In the ideal world the war in Ukraine would stop and allow food supplies to slowly improve, along with Russia being able to sell energy again to Europe and improving all sorts of logistic chain pricing.

[Captain Corporate]

They wouldn't print money, they would just drop the interest, which means people who got the printed money last year, that invested it into banks and interest because interest rate went up, will take their money out. Hence, during inflation there was a lot of money in the market, then interest went up, so the market had less money, then interest will go down, so market will have that money again without needing to print anything. That is a good way to arrange everything, we didn't needed all that money all that quickly, so slowly putting it out there would be a smarter way for sure.

[Hydrogen]

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

If US inflation is 7% annually.

What effect will it have on 30 year mortgage loans?

I think the fed will be forced to raise interest rates on loans. Which could incentivize markets to seek alternative sources of credit and liquidity. In a best and worse case scenario, crypto based sources of credit and liquidity could gain higher demand due to them supplying credit and liquidity without the rising interest rates.

Raising rates could reduce competitive advantages of conventional bank loan markets. Opening the door for crypto to take prominence. Although recent history has shown markets and regulation trends have swung in directions which are far from linear.

The feds alleged brrr money printing is something I remember complaining about back in 2012. I've waited so many years for the fed money printer to go brrr. That I've reached a point where even I have a hard time believing the feds money printing might actually have an effect.

Another thing to consider is the feds money printer might go the opposite of brrr. Which could lead to credit and liquidity shortages. Those conditions might actually be worse than most of what we have seen so far.

[franky1]

fiat will never deflate

recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation

instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate

going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation

deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation

[adaseb]

Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.

Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.

[franky1]

Many economists and hedge fund managers are basically thinking we are going to repeat the 1970s. Where in 6 months we will see deflation due to a recession and what will happen is the bonds will rally along with stocks and Bitcoin because the fed will print more money.

Then it’ll be a repeat and lead to more inflation and it might be double digit this time and again fed will need to raise rates. Pretty much what happened back then. No idea if history will repeat itself exactly but most of the time it rhymes.

there is no fiat deflation

US minimum wage is not going DOWN
its just not going up as fast

products are not getting cheaper. they are just getting expensive more slowly

deflation is your income buys you more produce
we are not going through a phase where our fiat income buys more produce

@philipma1957 below
im not shocked by another "windfuryism". i expect, now that he is proven wrong yet again, he will spout some empty insult that im just making him have mental disorders and confusion

i laugh that he thinks i can cause dementia(via gas lighting) over the internet
if his mental state is so easily altered, it shows his initial mental state is problematic even without the involvement of this forum

i have no issues with people that have mental issues. but to claim victim that someone is causing it is the laughable part.

for years now i have simply asked him to do research on a topic to know the real history, facts and data. and not cry when being proved wrong..

oh and not forgetting the title.. "defation" is not even a word.
did he mean prepare for a new years diet resolution

[philipma1957]

Not in 2023.

The USA Long Term Care industry is a big deal


close to 3.5 trillion in assets.

Unlike any other country USa makes you buy Long Term Care insurance if you want decent care.

Alzheimer and Dementia are big in the USA due to boomers (myself included) being conned into eating high carb diets for 1950 to 1990.

So with small bond interest the LONG TERM CARE industry was dying.

I know a lot about this since my bro-in-law has Dementia and will not get better.

But he has LTC policy. So I checked  them out on various rating companies.

I did this last Dec 2021. and they were rated 45% chance to go bust in 2022

I did further research and found all the companies 14 of them with 3 trillion in assets had bad ratings.

Why? they make bank in the bond market and the bond market sucked in dec 2021

well guess what. these companies rated 40 to 50 % shot to go broke in 2022 gained 500 billion due to bond rates rising.

they are now rated 30 to 40% to go broke in 2023....

My guess is at least 2023 with rates going up then flat. will add 250 to 300 million to these companies. and maybe we see a slump in 2024.

2023 interest up inflation persists.

maybe light at tunnels end in 2024.


be like JJG just DCA!

@ franky1 you must have laughed out loud at this op title. "deflation in 2023 !"

[Moneyprism]

the central bank of course will not allow this to happen, because inflation is better than deflation .. deflation has a worse effect than inflation, where there will be many products whose value decreases,,, layoffs in factories due to lack of demand, etc., it will destroy the economy and printing money is not a solution because this problem will be more complex and have a longer effect

[Wind_FURY]

fiat will never deflate

recession does not mean deflation. recession is just calming down of excessive inflation
it just means reduced inflation

instead of 10% they want to still money print but at a 5% rate instead of 10% rate

going from 2% to 10 to 5 is not deflation, especially if they can then go 5 to 7 later.. where there will always be more creation

deflation is going from 50, 25, 12.5, always getting less and less than previous until there is no creation

Zoomed out to the maximum, it doesn't deflate, BUT there could be cycles of deflation possible, especially if the cabal behind the Federal Reserve over-adjusts with QT.

Percentage Change, Year on Year illustrates that the money supply is dropping. It's currently -0.70%. It's possible that inflation rate will drop quickly too, probably near ZERO PERCENT by June, 2023, and deflation by the end of the year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS#0

I know it's debatable, it's also laughable to discuss "deflation" in the middle of an inflationary period, but I'm the stupid one.

[franky1]

ok quick lesson

M1=coins and notes.. this is going down
M2=coins notes and demand deposits(debit/credit cards) this is small decrease due to M1
       (counting just debit credit cards(electronic payments see a rise)
M3=coins notes demand deposits and savings accounts, money market deposits this is increasing
       (counting just a savings accounts would see a larger rise compared to debit cards)
       (counting just money markets accounts would see an even larger rise compared to savings)

money supply is always increasing. just the form and where it is can become the mystery to some

so ill reveal the secret..
less coins and banknotes but more being put in the savings accounts and money markets

money printing still occurs, people still use credit cards, people still take mortgages there is still more money being created and the supply still increases.. all you proved is less people want to mess around with paper bank note forms of money

[KingsDen]

Ever since I had an elementary idea of inflation and deflation as regards the economy. I had always been scared of inflation and it has been inflation hitting the economy. I have never witnessed any deflation.
But in theory I was told that deflection is worse than inflation.
I so much want to witness deflation because from the definition I believe it's more acceptable than inflation.

They wouldn't print money, they would just drop the interest, which means people who got the printed money last year, that invested it into banks and interest because interest rate went up, will take their money out. Hence, during inflation there was a lot of money in the market, then interest went up, so the market had less money, then interest will go down, so market will have that money again without needing to print anything. That is a good way to arrange everything, we didn't needed all that money all that quickly, so slowly putting it out there would be a smarter way for sure.

You are such an economist or a financial analyst. If your proposal is what really happens why do government keep printing money?

[odunybiz]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

This shouldn't be a surprise for most investors. Most of us are really looking forward for bullish soon (may be 2024 precisely)

[franky1]

here is the way i see the economics of the last year 5 years (2019-2023)

fiat inflates always.. and it did in 2019 even before certain events did during and did after. just differing rates

due to many things(2020-2021), such as people returning to work after covid, no longer subsidised by stimulus cheques and also entering(2022) a new economy of eastern europe war affecting supply chains. the fiat market swung into a new direction.. not deflation but inflation and yes it was already in inflation but a new higher direction of inflation.

businesses knew it would see energy prices and supply of produce prices rise which meant companies would need to stock pile stuff at early 2022 prices to be ready and not pay out more in 2023

to they sold all their shares stocks and investments to be cashflow heavy to stockpile their materials needed for late 2022-23

they are now in a position to just produce and start filling their pockets with sales, to then re-invest in the investments they dropped in early 2022

this will then as a sidenote, slow down the inflation back into the direction it would have gone
    //       2023
   //        2022
 / /         2021
| /          2020
//           2019

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I'm not an economist, but if deflation happens in 2023 that causes further recession, what would the Federal Reserve do? MAXIMUM ORDERS OF BRRR-MONEY PRINTING.

Wait a sec.  I thought the money printing never stopped in the first place.  Are you saying the Fed actually took a breather?

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Oh, if only I had the spare cash to buy bitcoin like it was 2015!  I don't know if the cause-and-effect relationship you described between the Fed's actions and bitcoin's price action is correct, but we've seen periods where bitcoin is completely stagnant for months and then breaks out like an olympic track runner, usually to the upside.  Right now it looks like bitcoin kinda-sorta wants to break past $17k; I think that regardless of what the Fed does, once people get over the FTX disaster (and the last few debacles like Terra) bitcoin's going to skyrocket.

Time frame:  Who knows?

[franky1]

as for the windfuryism that he thinks there will be an event of a 60x (2015:$333-2017:$20k) in 2023..
he is mistaken by about a 10x (meaning expect a modest 6x max instead, if the right speculative triggers are pulled)

there were 3 events in 2016 and 2017 thats caused the price of 2017 to be 60x higher then 2015
and those 3 events over a 3 year period.. which are not going to happen in 2023

(2015-16)firstly mining transitioned from a 1.2thash(s5) to  14thash(s9)
(2016)then there was the halvening.
(2017)then there was the speculation of the protocol change and late re-valuation from halving costs

none of which similar events are really things to have happened or about to occur in 2023

when you look at the value premium window of underlying bitcoin trade window of $10k-$75k 2021
2022 sees a $15k -$90k potential of trade speculation market window

so unless hashrate becomes extremely alot more then it is now to stimulate people wanting to buy bitcoin above $XYZk
most people wont want to buy above $100k based on current value window

yes we might see a potential speculated amount somewhere in the $15k-$90k zone if the right speculation triggers occur. meaning maybe upto 6x

but no way will we see a 60x of $900k in 2023

[Negotiation]

Prepare to experience a big surge for Bitcoin like it was 2015 - 2017

Oh, if only I had the spare cash to buy bitcoin like it was 2015!  I don't know if the cause-and-effect relationship you described between the Fed's actions and bitcoin's price action is correct, but we've seen periods where bitcoin is completely stagnant for months and then breaks out like an olympic track runner, usually to the upside.  Right now it looks like bitcoin kinda-sorta wants to break past $17k; I think that regardless of what the Fed does, once people get over the FTX disaster (and the last few debacles like Terra) bitcoin's going to skyrocket.

No one has any idea about the exact timing, especially in the case of Bitcoin but there are a few things that can give you a little guess as to how Bitcoin is going to move. Although that is mostly just a guess. If accurate statistics were always available then all those involved with Bitcoin over the years would never have experienced losses, I mean for trading and holding. If we think in general then it can be seen that when the price of Bitcoin skyrockets, the common holder or people don't have that much Bitcoin. and it's not just you, there are many others who wish they could hoard some bitcoins for a chance like in 2015. But I don't think Bitcoin will ever go down like it did in 2015.

Time frame:  Who knows?

I agree with you, but no one can say anything for sure about timing, because bitcoin can change movement for many reasons. And many times the timing cannot be determined because of these rapid movement changes.

[davis196]

I don't think that there's going to be a deflation in the USA(or global deflation). I expect a slightly lower inflation in 2023, maybe around 10-15%.
There are too many factors, which are pushing the prices up, fuel costs, global supply chain disruptions, the COVID wave in China.
Having higher interest rates in the USA means that many companies might decide to move their business in America. More investments in the industry would mean higher industrial production and more jobs. I don't really think that 2023 would be such a "doom&gloom" year for the USA.